Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. Whether Patrik Laine likes John Tortorella or not, the numbers (4-3-7 in nine outings) show that the trade from Winnipeg hasn’t hurt his fantasy value so far.

Playing on the Laine line has bumped up the recent production of both Jack Roslovic and Cam Atkinson. Maybe I was wrong about the Laine trade potentially hurting Atkinson’s value. I was thinking about dropping him, but now I definitely won’t. (feb14)

2. Roslovic has 10 points in his last 10 games and has really earned the trust of his new coach. The chemistry with Atkinson and Laine is very real, and has also turned Atkinson’s career back around as a fantasy asset. Wam-Bam Cam has seven points in his last three games. I have a feeling we’ll be discussing this trio a lot in the coming months. I pushed hard to get Roslovic in the summer and ultimately failed. But I also pushed you to do the same, and if you were successful then you are certainly reaping the rewards now. (feb15)

3. Tyson Barrie is tied for second in scoring among defensemen with 16 points. He might have his issues on defense, but that matters to Oilers fans more than that matters to fantasy owners. Barrie is finding much more success in Edmonton than he had in his one season in Toronto, which has a lot to do with the increase in power-play time. Half (8) of his 16 points have been with the man advantage. (feb20)

4. There’s two points that I would like to make on Alexis Lafreniere.

– First-year players are very difficult to value. You might end up with a difference maker like a Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes from last season, or you may end up with a Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko from last season. I mentioned before the season that I wasn’t willing to add Lafreniere to my top 100. Sure enough, his average draft position in Yahoo leagues was 129.5. Lafreniere has scored just two goals and added no assists over his first 16 games, so I’m glad someone else took the risk. I’m okay with suggesting you cut him in single-season leagues if you need to.

– For those already labeling him a bust or that don’t know what’s so special about the kid, he’s only 19! Give it time. I remember keeper leaguers on the Forum inquiring about cutting Nathan MacKinnon as late as the end of his fourth season, when he was nearly 22. I’m not suggesting Lafreniere is the next MacKinnon, but you don’t want to bail too early either. Stash him away and reap the rewards one day. I'm probably Captain Obvious in making this point, but just a reminder that a player's short- and long-term value can be very different. (feb20)

5. Nino Niederreiter is in the running for whatever hockey’s version of the Cy Young would be, having scored nine goals to go with just three assists in 16 games. Regardless, his nine goals is just two shy of his total from all of last season. With a 18.4 SH% and a 1064 PDO, yes, the goal scoring should cool off.

6. Remember all the fuss about Keith Yandle being a healthy scratch with the Panthers reportedly deciding to move in a different direction? Hopefully you didn’t move on from him on your fantasy team. Joel Quenneville seems to have forgotten about the whole thing, as Yandle leads the Panthers in power-play time. As a result, nine of his 12 points have been on the man advantage. (feb20)

7. I realize less than a third of the season has been played, but has there been a bigger bust so far than Mika Zibanejad? He has just two points (1-1-2) in his last 13 games. This is a massive dropoff from last season, so you have to wonder if something is really wrong here. I think the effects of COVID and the lack of a training camp have slowed him considerably where his timing and his shot velocity are off (from what I’ve seen and read about him). The shots on goal per game (new stat on Frozen Tools) have only declined from 3.6 SOG/GP last season to 2.9 SOG/GP, while his SH% has plummeted from 19.7% last season to just 4.3% this season.

At this point, I’m not even sure if I can recommend a buy-low – maybe a buy “really low.” With the schedule condensed, this may simply be a lost season. But as a Zibanejad owner, I hope I’m wrong. (feb19)

8. David Perron has 18 points (6 G, 12 A) over his last 14 games. Over the last four seasons, he has averaged 0.88 PTS/GP. That’s a similar average over that same span to Tyler Seguin, Gabriel Landeskog, teammate Vladimir Tarasenko, and Mika Zibanejad. He’s providing great value, as he’s usually drafted well after all of these players. (feb19)

9. Anze Kopitar has a seven-game point streak. The 33-year-old center is eighth in scoring (21 points in 16 games), which his 17 assists place him in the top 10 in that category. The rebuilding Kings have a few under-the-radar scoring options (Dustin Brown, Alex Iafallo, Jeff Carter, Adrian Kempe) that might be worth taking a flier on. The Kings are currently a middle-of-the-pack team in scoring in what was expected to be a placeholder season before the top prospects start arriving. (feb19)

10. Nicklas Backstrom has recorded points in all but three of the 16 games he has played this season. This is a great story for the 33-year-old center; however, his advanced stats (25.0 SH%, 13.2 5-on-5 SH%, 3.9 PTS/60, 1059 PDO) all suggest a regression. That will likely occur with his goal total, which at 8 G is only four behind his total from all of last season. He’s been a fairly consistent producer of assists throughout his career, which is how you should expect his point totals to occur going forward. (feb19)

11. Juuse Saros hasn’t won a game since January 27, which was also the last time he posted a quality start. If there’s a goalie you’re itching to add from the waiver wire, you’re probably okay in dropping Saros (3.47 GAA, .882 SV%) to make that happen. Keep in mind that goalie values can change as often as the weather, though.

For more goalie start information, don’t forget to check Goalie Post or sign up for its custom email notifications. (feb19)

12. He hadn’t started a game since January 31, so you can’t be blamed too much if you’d forgotten about Elvis Merzlikins. Yet with Joonas Korpisalo struggling with just one Quality Start and four Really Bad Starts^© in his last seven games, expect to see more of Elvis in the crease. (feb19)

13. What Auston Matthews is up to this season is simply amazing. I moved Matthews up in my recent Top 100 Roto Rankings, but should he be the number one ranked player in fantasy hockey? Have your say.

I also moved Mitch Marner up the Roto Rankings as he has slid into the second spot in scoring with 1.58 PTS/GP (30 points in 19 games). The league’s top four point producers (Connor McDavid, Marner, Leon Draisaitl, Matthews) are all from the Canadian Division. 

Figuring that being the third wheel on the Matthews/Marner line while facing Ottawa last Thursday might be fruitful, I added Joe Thornton from the waiver wire on Monday morning. Now Jumbo Joe is carrying my team this week (actually, preventing me from getting embarrassed in scoring categories) with two goals and four assists with a plus-5 in the three games against Ottawa. Even if other opponents prove to be less of a revolving door defensively than the Sens, Thornton is still worth taking a flier on. Fun fact: Thornton was the top scorer on my first-ever Yahoo fantasy team, back when he was a member of the Bruins. That shows the age of both of us. (feb19)

14. Blake Wheeler is having a real bad start to the season. Going into Wednesday night, he had 14 points in 17 games, which seems good. And it is! But the problem there is over half of those 14 points (8) have come on the power play. He has been a great PP performer in recent seasons, but even his highest PP/total points season was under 50 percent, and most seasons closer to 30-35 percent. Players relying on the power play for that much of their production inevitably decline.

The problem is two-fold here. First, without inundating with charts, his offensive and defensive impacts are atrocious. He has been among the worst defensive players in the league and his offensive impacts are well below average as well. Wheeler isn’t just not playing like himself; he’s barely playing like an NHLer.

This shouldn’t come as a massive surprise. His shot rate at 5-on-5 has been declining for several years now before cratering to a career-low this year. His zone entry/exit numbers have been declining for a few years as well. He turned 34 years old in August. That a 34-year old is breaking down isn’t a shock in the NHL.

Can he turn it around? It seems he’ll get every opportunity to do so. Despite the extremely poor play, visible on paper or just watching the games, He is still getting top-line slotting with top PP minutes. If he can turn it around, he will have every opportunity to do so. Whether to trade him or not depends on whether you think he’ll stabilize. Because if he doesn’t, his numbers are going to get a lot worse over the next 40 games.

15. Carter Hutton isn't the most reliable Buffalo goalie right now, that title goes to Linus Ullmark. To some, Ullmark bears the brunt of the blame for the team's defensive lapses, but he has been surprisingly average this year for the otherwise abysmal Sabres. From the Fantasy Guide, Dobber noted this about Ullmark’s breakout last year: 

“Backed by an encouraging defensive effort by the blue line group – remember, it was the lack of depth up front that hampered the Sabres – Ullmark fashioned a solid 17-14-3 log to go with a 2.69 goals- against average and a 0.915 save percentage. A lower body injury spoiled his breakout season in late January and kept him out of action until the Sabres’ last game of the shortened season on March 9…”

The injury hid what was a very good stretch by Ullmark, and in some leagues the 27-year-old may still be underappreciated, or his owner may think that his current numbers indicate a sell-high window. That’s not the case, and Ullmark may be one of the best goalies you can acquire right now when you consider the cost in a trade versus what he can provide statistically. (feb17)

16. While several Habs have had great starts to their respective seasons, Jonathan Drouin has 11 points in 16 games, almost tying a career-best (0.73 in 2016-17) for points per game. That is a wonderful start.

However, because of his role, Drouin isn’t shooting at all, with just 21 shots in those 15 games. A full season at that rate would see about 110 shots on goal. It is really, really hard to have much fantasy value with that kind of shot rate. Joe Thornton, he is not.

Here we have a player that isn’t shooting and is reliant on secondary assists for production. Unless he changes the way he’s playing, Drouin’s value for the season has probably peaked. This is another situation where it makes sense to move on. (feb16)

17. Don’t forget that last year Bryan Rust finished with 56 points in 55 games. Yes, his stats really tailed off over the last six weeks but the season was cancelled before he could slide below the point-per-game mark. So the stats remain stellar: in Rust’s last 75 regular season and playoff games, he has 74 points. Can’t argue with that.

When a player is a point-per-gamer over the course of 75 games, I think you gotta call him a point-per-game player even though your instincts are screaming against it. And once a player gets a taste of those kinds of numbers, not only does his confidence soar (helping him to continue producing), but coaches will start playing him as if he’s that kind of player. (feb15)

18. Despite dipping last season from 76 points down to 45, I still maintained that Alex DeBrincat was a potential 90-point player (in the Fantasy Guide I have his upside at 95, actually). Tremendous upside and definitely owns another gear. Looks like we’re seeing it.

Still only 23 years old, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he has a 60-point season right now (in 56 games). He’s playing with Patrick Kane, so that bold call is of course dependent upon this situation remaining mostly unchanged. When he’s a little older I’ll feel more comfortable with DeBrincat anchoring his own line and not being reliant on help to put up the big numbers – but he’ll get there. (feb15)

19. I have been trumpeting Darnell Nurse‘s offensive upside for several years now, especially the last two seasons where he’s actually shown a lot of promise whenever Oscar Klefbom is sidelined. Now this year he’s truly showing it, with 16 points in 20 games.

Part-time stat-heads will be quick to tell you that his numbers are a little inflated and definitely unsustainable. This is true, but not by much. Nurse is seeing secondary power-play time, top PK time and is being paired at even-strength with Tyson Barrie, while Ethan Bear is sidelined. In the Fantasy Guide I had projected Nurse to get 30 points. His current pace is 45. I would tweak expectations to something closer to 35. (feb15)

20. Teuvo Teravainen finally scored his first goal of the season last week, in his ninth game. He’s reached the 60-point mark in each of his last three seasons, so there’s tons of reason to believe he’ll turn it around. (feb14)

21. Marc-Andre Fleury is throwing a monkey wrench at fantasy owners who drafted Robin Lehner early hoping that Fleury would either be traded or simply made irrelevant. Goalie values are unpredictable, but at least we know that Fleury has stormed back as motivated as ever. (feb14)

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This week's final word goes to Alexander MacLean, who begins his tenure with the '21 Fantasy Rambles' crew:

"It’s exciting to be joining the editorial team with Dobber, Ian Gooding, and Michael Clifford – a big thanks to them for helping me get here. On the other hand, it is sad that Cam Robinson is leaving the team. We’ll miss him and all that he brought to the website, especially his expansive knowledge of the Canucks & draft eligible prospects, as well as his excellent sense of humour and kindness. Stick tap to Cam for all that he brought to the site over the years. 

I will be taking over the Wednesday Ramblings, keeping you covered on all things fantasy hockey related. For those of you that don’t know me, I have penned the Capped column every Thursday here at DobberHockey since 2016, and I’m a very active member over on the forums. You can also find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean where among other tidbits, I enjoy covering NHL signings and how they came in relative to projected value."

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Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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