The window to buy low on Conor Garland didn't last long. Garland has arrived. What you're witnessing is a real-time offensive breakout.

Garland was originally passed over in his 2014 draft year even though he notched 54 points in 51 games with Moncton. At 5-8, 160 lbs, it's not a surprise all 30 NHL teams passed him over.

Turn the page to 2015 and Garland put the NHL on notice and gave at least the Arizona Coyotes little choice but to notice him. He destroyed the QMJHL with 35-94-129 points in 67 games.  His reward for leading the league by 27 points was to be drafted in the fifth round, 123^rd overall by the Arizona Coyotes. Like the vast majority of late-round draft picks, Garland went back to juniors for another season and repeated his destructive behaviours by posting 39-89-128 in five fewer games.

Garland wasn't given a ton of attention during his second monster junior season by the fantasy community either. Due to height and slight frame, even the fantasy community wasn't giving him a lot of rope. Either nobody told Garland, or he just didn't care.

In 2016-17 he moved up to the AHL and struggled with 5-9-14 in 55 games. Given his lack of size and late-round draft choice it wasn't much of a surprise to the masses. As a result, his stock dropped; what there was of it anyway. 2017-18 was only marginally better at 8-19-27 in again, 55 games. His shots on goal (SOG) did increase from 79 to 114, so there was some progression to his game. Fantasy owners don't like stagnation in prospect growth. They want straight forward progression. At least the vast majority. There are some stalwarts out there that will hang onto a prospect until the cows come home. That said, lots lost faith.

For those that held the faith, were sly enough to buy low, or were crafty enough to snag him out of free agency, 2018-19 provided reward and some hope. Things clicked for Garland in Tucson. In 21 games he put up 12-13-25 points and 75 shots. Yup, almost four shots per game. The offensively starved Arizona Coyotes took notice and called him up. With confidence swelling in his veins, Garland continued to build on his solid AHL season putting up 18 points in his first 48 NHL games. His shot volume also translated well at 118 in 47 games. 

Garland owners breathed a sigh of relief. There was hope.

In 2019-20 Garland built on the previous year with 22-17-39 points, 158 shots in 68 games, his first full NHL season. At 2.32 SOG per game, Garland teased owners at the real possibility of being a volume shooter.

A quick pause here to note between 2015 and 2019 Garland's player profile has changed his height from 5-8 to 5-10 and 160 to 165 lbs. With a bit of a late growth spurt, he was no longer that fully undersized player. At 165 lbs, there's no mistaking it, he's still undersized.

When you break down Garland's production in 2019-20 his SOG were almost identical quarter over quarter. 52, 50, 49. In the second quarter his production dipped from 14 to 8 points; however, he bounced back in a big way with 17 in 21 games during the third quarter of the season. Then the season stopped.

Garland let it be known in game one of the 2020-21 season he had arrived. He had 7 SOG, with a goal and an assist in 21:03 of ice-time, 4:34 of that on the power play.  It's clear the coach is going to let him play.

He has seen over 3:25 jump in ice-time this season to 17:09 and a 1:04 jump in time on the power play to 3:20 per game this season. Garland hasn't disappointed, sitting with 6-8-14 points in 14 games and is top 15 in SOG in the NHL averaging 3.5 per game. Lay that out to a full 82 game schedule and Garland is on pace for 285 SOG.

Not many people tune in for Coyotes games, especially if you're on the east coast. On a game-by-game basis, he is usually the most dangerous and noticeable player on the ice for Arizona. In other words, he's a spark plug on what is not a deeply offensive team. Garland is a primary piece in their offensive attack and as he continues to improve the offensively starved Coyotes will begin to rely on him more and more.

Digging a bit deeper his PDO is sitting at 1064. This is a bit high to be sustainable over a full season. His 71.4% offensive zone starts (OZ starts %) is likely an influence on the inflated PDO. Garland is now rocking the top line with Christian Dvorak and Clayton Keller, and with such a high OZ start % it's likely at least in part a strategy to put the Garland out in the most advantageous offensive situations as often as possible. Now that he's on a line with Dvorak, it's likely his OZ starts will drop slightly.

Garland is sitting with some sustainable numbers as well. Both his IPP 65.2% and PP-IPP 60% are almost conservative for someone sitting at 0.93 points per game. He's also only seeing 55% of his team's PPTOI. If Garland can continue his offensive surge, Tocchet will have no choice but to lean on him further in man-advantage situations. He could see a further boost in power-play time. Only 3 of his 15 points to date have come on the power play, so there's definitely room for that to improve. His shooting percentage is also lower than it was in 2019-20.

Garland isn't going to wow anyone with hit totals. You shouldn't be drafting him for hits. You roster him for goals, points, and shots. This is going to be his bread and butter moving forward. He might be teasing owners with a little hidden multi-cat value, however. In those leagues that count penalty minutes his numbers are increasing. This happened in the AHL as well. Each year his PIM increased. In his third season he had 22 in 21 games. He was chippy in the OHL before that with 97 PIM in 66 games in his final year with the Moncton Wildcats. Still, more than 50 PIM in any given season from Garland would be a stretch.

It's unlikely Garland will continue his 0.88 point per game pace. That's a tall task for a player in his second full season coming off 39 in 68 (0.57). That's not to say there is any expectation his production will tank. There's more sustainable indicators in play than not. Call it a conservative expectation, but his 82-game pace should dip just below 70 points by the end of the season.

There's real upside with Garland, though. You should still buy Garland while you have the small opportunity. A year from now he's going to become recognized with a higher-tier point producer, as there's point-per-game potential here. It won't come this year, but it's there. The concern though isn't with Garland himself, it's the seeming jinx that is on the Coyotes ability to produce a player that can hit the 70-point plateau.