Wild West: Top 15 Multi-Cat Forwards in the West

Grant Campbell

2021-02-22

Weekly Western Leaders (to February 21st, 2021) – in bold leads the NHL

Goals – 12 – Brock Boeser – Vancouver, Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Assists – 25Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Points – 37Connor McDavid – Edmonton

PPP – 16Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Shots on Goal – 78Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Shooting % (min 18 SOG) – 30.0 – Brandon Saad – Colorado

PIM – 35Tyler Myers – Vancouver

Best plus/minus – plus 17Justin Faulk – St. Louis

Worst plus/minus – minus 12 – Quinn Hughes – Vancouver

Hits – 70 – Tyler Motte – Vancouver

Blocked shots – 58Adam Larsson – Edmonton

FOW – 254Bo Horvat – Vancouver

FOL – 218Bo Horvat – Vancouver

FO% (min 100 FO) – 59.7 – Ryan O'Reilly – St. Louis

Giveaways – 30Darnell Nurse – Edmonton

Takeaways – 19Mark Stone – Vegas

Highest Skater GAR (goals above replacement) – 10.2Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Lowest Skater GAR – minus 5.1Blake Wheeler – Winnipeg

Highest xGAR (expected goals above replacement) – 10.4 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Lowest xGAR – minus 4.1 – Erik Karlsson – San Jose

Highest CF% (min 10 GP) – 61.3Cale Makar – Colorado

Lowest CF% (min 10 GP) – 35.5Devin Shore – Edmonton

Highest PDO (min 10 GP) – 111.3 – Nicholas Beaudin – Chicago

Lowest PDO (min 10 GP) – 88.7 – John Leonard – San Jose

Goalie wins – 9 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado

Save percentage (min 7 starts) – 93.6Philipp Grubauer – Colorado

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Quality starts – 9Kevin Lankinen – Chicago, Philipp Grubauer – Colorado, Darcy Kuemper – Arizona, Jordan Binnington – St. Louis

Quality start % (min 7 starts) – 80.0Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas

Highest Goalie GAR – 12.5 Kevin Lankinen – Chicago

Shutouts – 3John Gibson – Anaheim

Since we focused on defence last week we will make the obvious shift to the forwards this week. I adjusted the scores a little for forwards as points and hits come easier for them but blocked shots don't.

The highest multi-cat rating for a forward has Auston Matthews come out on top at 10.85. Here are the current top 15 players in the West with their multi-cat rating score:

15th – Joel Eriksson Ek – Minnesota (6.98) – It is a little surprising to see Eriksson Ek on this list but he has been shooting the puck a lot (2.7/game) with success (15.8 shooting %) and for a player that throws hits (career-high of 134), it is a very good combination. His PDO is a little high at 108.1 and his 5 on 5 shooting percentage of 12.3 will probably see some reversion, but there is no reason to think that he can't stay in the top 20 or 30 multi-cat forwards for this season and a few more after that.

14th – Dustin Brown – Los Angeles (6.99) – Brown used to be one of the more valuable multi-cat forwards when he was scoring 50-55 points and throwing 250-300 hits per season. At the age of 36, he is still managing to put up points and is having a career year so far. His hits are still high at about two per game but are a far cry from his career years of three to three and a half per game. His PDO of 104.3 and 5 on 5 shooting percentage of 10.2 are not that much higher than the norm, so a small reversion is more than likely combined with the unlikely event of a career season at his age. Sell him high.

13th – J.T. Miller – Vancouver (7.22) – Even with his respectable 18 points in 19 games so far, Miller has struggled this season. His shots per game are back down to his career average of around 1.7 after his impressive 27 goals on 2.4 SOG/game last year. His hits are up this season to over 2.6 per game from his usual 1.5 per game and that is more than likely attributable to his frustration level. I've said before that last season was probably his career year, but Miller is better than he is showing and could move up this listing, even as his hits decrease.

12th – Brayden Schenn – St. Louis (7.23) – Schenn has settled into about 1.6 hits/game for the past three seasons after being a little more physical in Philadelphia and his first season with the Blues. His SOG/game is at 2.9 which is higher than his career-high of 2.6 in his 28-goal season of 2017-18. His PDO is 103.2 and his 5 on 5 shooting percentage is 10.9 so both will more than likely come down a little and Schenn will move closer to the 25-goal pace he has averaged throughout his career as the season progresses. He is one of the more valuable multi-cat forwards year in year out.

11th – Mark Scheifele – Winnipeg (7.37) – For a player of his size (6'3" 207 lb) Scheifele's game is far from physical and so far this season he is in Phil Kessel territory with only two hits in 18 games. Right now it is just his points and shots on goalkeeping him near the top.

10th – Anze Kopitar– Los Angeles (7.38) – Kopitar would be on pace for 108 points in a usual 82-game schedule and as his career-high is 92 points in 2017-18 we can rest assured there will be some slow down at some point. Kopitar is close to a hit and block per game which is a little above his average. His PDO is 104.8 and the 5 on 5 shooting percentage is 11.2 which both should come down as well. Like Dustin Brown, sell high if you can.

9th – Matthew Tkachuk (7.49) – Tkachuk has done more than usual in every aspect except goals and points so far this season. His SOG/game is at 3.4 above his 2.7 from last year, but his shooting percentage is only 8.1 where he is usually around 12. His hits per game are just over three per game where his career-high is 1.76/game, so there might be a little frustration in his game like J.T. Miller. His PDO is 102.3 and 5 on 5 shooting percentage is 7.4. I'm going to guess three things will happen with Tkachuk based on his stat line. His points per game will increase, his SOG will slightly decrease and his hits will decrease, but he will maintain or move up this listing.

8th – Max Pacioretty – Vegas (7.73) – Pacioretty is a high-volume shooter and no more than last season when he averaged 4.3 SOG/game. This season he is right up there with 4.2 per game and has his shooting percentage at a very sustainable 12.7. He is a physical player who is on pace for a hit per game and usually comes in at around 100 per season. If he can get a few more power-play points he will become even more valuable.

7th – Patrick Kane – Chicago (7.74) – There is nothing that Kane has done this season that is unsustainable. His SOG/game is at 3.6, his shooting percentage is 11.6 and 5 on 5 shooting percentage 10.6, all of which are comfortably in his wheelhouse. Any hit or block that Kane is credited with, is probably accidental, which brings him to #7 on this list instead of the top five.

6th – Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton (8.17) – Draisaitl has 'quietly' put up 30 points in 20 games and is averaging 1.50 pts/game which is close to his 1.55/game from last season. For a big man, he is not physical at all but relies on his size to create space for himself. His SOG/game is 2.6 and his shooting percentage is 19.2 both right around his yearly average. His PDO is a little high at 107.9 so his points per game might be a little high, so keep an eye on this as it will be difficult for him to move up on this list.

5th – Alex Debrincat – Chicago (8.31) – Debrincat is another purely offensive player on this list that provides little to no hits or blocked shots, but is having quite the year so far. I might have been a little hard on him last season when he went from 41 goals in 2018-19 to 18 last year as his shooting percentage went from 18.6 down to 8.7 on very similar amounts of SOG. His SOG/game this season is 3.5 and he has brought his shooting percentage back up to 17.0 which should get him back into the 35-40 goal range. With Jonathan Toews out and a very young team, he is seeing about two and a half minutes more per game and is full value for his 1.20 pts/game this year.

4th – Tyler Motte – Vancouver (8.38) – How does a player with only six points in 15 games who is injured for the next four to six weeks end up this high on the list? You block one shot a game and throw just under 4.7 hits/game while raising your SOG/game to 1.9. Motte in my opinion had been one of the best forwards on the Canucks before he went down with an injury and his game has blossomed to more than just the hits and blocks. His problem is that his game doesn't translate to long-term health for a player of his size.

3rd – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado (8.72) – For four seasons including this one, MacKinnon has averaged at least 1.21 pts/game and 3.8 SOG/game. This season he is at 1.38 pts/game and 4.2 SOG/game but his shooting percentage is uncharacteristically low at 7.4 from where he usually sits just above 11. His PDO of 106.2 and 5 on 5 shooting percentage of 12.2 are a little high for him to sustain his pts/game pace but if anyone can do it, it is him. He is not a hitter or blocker but he does get enough in both categories to make a difference over the true perimeter offensive players.

2nd – Joe Pavelski – Dallas (9.39) – Pavelski is our 2nd 36-year old on this list and is someone that I had pretty much written off before his performance in the bubble and then I wrote him off again before this season. He's had an insane start to the season with nine goals and 17 points in 12 games, which to put into perspective he could get nine points in his next 44 games and still match his production from last season. That is unlikely to happen but so is his current pace as his PDO is 107.8 and his points will come down. His SOG/game is 2.7 after last season around 1.9 and he is back to where he has been for most of his career albeit without a 28.1 shooting percentage which will also come down. The bonus for Pavelski is that he does hit and block shots at about one each per game if not a little more than that in the hits department. It is doubtful that he stays in the top five in this list for much longer.

1st – Connor McDavid – Edmonton (10.49) – When I entered these players into my spreadsheet I thought McDavid would come out on top by quite a margin but was surprised that he was behind Auston Matthews, but not by much. McDavid is in his 6th NHL season and has elevated his pts/game each year and is currently at 1.85, which he can do. He is starting to throw a few more hits (or get credited with more) and is above one per game now. His SOG/game is at 3.9 after hovering between 3.1 and 3.3 over the past four seasons. His shooting percentage is at 15.4 and he has been consistently between 15 and 17 except for his sophomore season when he dipped to 12.0. McDavid and Matthews will battle each other for the next few seasons as Alex Ovechkin (10.19) still gives them a run for their money.

Some of the honourable mentions were Filip Forsberg (6.94), Elias Lindholm (6.92) and Alexander Radulov (6.86) and look for any or all to move into this list at some point. If you have any players you are curious about send me a note.

Thanks for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please let me know below and/or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 19 - 19:03 DET vs CBJ
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Mar 19 - 19:03 NYR vs WPG
Mar 19 - 19:03 BOS vs OTT
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYI vs CAR
Mar 19 - 20:03 NSH vs S.J
Mar 19 - 20:03 STL vs COL
Mar 19 - 21:03 EDM vs MTL
Mar 19 - 22:03 VGK vs T.B
Mar 19 - 22:03 L.A vs CHI
Mar 19 - 22:03 VAN vs BUF
Mar 19 - 22:03 ANA vs MIN

Starting Goalies

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CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
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EVGENY KUZNETSOV CAR
YEGOR SHARANGOVICH CGY

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LINE COMBOS

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21.9 ALIAKSEI PROTAS BECK MALENSTYN NIC DOWD
18.8 ALEX OVECHKIN T.J. OSHIE CONNOR MCMICHAEL
18.2 TOM WILSON DYLAN STROME IVAN MIROSHNICHENKO

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