Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. As for Trevor Zegras‘ rest-of-season outlook, well, I guess it depends on what we think of the Ducks. I look at Tim Stutzle, who I think is a good comp for Zegras for this season, with 12 points in 20 games and think that feels about right for Zegras. The Anaheim Ducks are about the worst offensive environment for him and his ice time will almost certainly be depressed, as all Ducks forwards are. It is nice to see him in the NHL but let’s not get too excited just yet. (feb23)

2. I want to get this out of the way: I’m a big fan of Dominik Kubalik and think he can be a great fantasy asset. The problem is Jeremy Colliton is only playing him 14-15 minutes a night, he rarely gets PP1 time with the big boys, and has infrequently skated with either Patrick Kane of Alex DeBrincat.

In other words, Kubalik is succeeding despite the deck being stacked heavily against him by his own coach. That the deck is stacked so heavily is the reason to get out now. Of his 17 points this year, 11 have come with the man advantage, and like I said, he’s doing most of that work on the second PP unit. That unit won’t keep scoring a goal every three minutes. Unless Kubalik’s usage changes in a big way very soon, he’s going to get hit by the regression monster very hard. (feb23)

3. Maybe Mike Smith‘s (6-1-0, 2.04, 0.934) not washed up, but yes… absolutely… you should try to sell high on the soon-to-be 39-year-old goalie. The Oilers are on a heater right now, and the North Division has been a rollercoaster ride of ups and downs for all of its teams, so it seems inevitable that they will cool off at some point. Determining goalie value is getting harder and harder every season, and it’s especially apparent over this 56-game COVID season. (feb27)

4. Since making his season debut in mid-February, Mats Zuccarello has points in six of his seven games played. He extended his point streak to six games with an assist on Saturday. That gives Zuccarello 11 points over his last seven games, as he’s formed instant chemistry with Kirill Kaprizov and Victor Rask. Speaking of Kaprizov, he now has eight points in his last five games. (feb27)

5. In case you’ve never heard of Colin Blackwell, he’s a former Predator who is taking advantage of time on a scoring line. He has seven points in 10 games, including points in four of his last five games. If you’re looking for an end-of-week Sunday add and play in a relatively deep league, chances are he’s available (owned in just 1 percent of Yahoo leagues). His ice time has increased a little bit since Artemi Panarin took his leave of absence, and he’s also receiving power-play time. (feb27)

6. In going through some IPP research this week, I noticed something: At the time of writing this, Miro Heiskanen‘s points/60 at 5-on-5 this year (1.25) was much higher than last year (1.04). That seemed good!

One problem: he’s not shooting. Like, at all. His individual shot attempt rate at 5-on-5 is 5.99. Last year it was 11.33 and it was 11.09 in his rookie year. It isn’t that his shots are down; his shots have cratered. Among 145 defencemen with at least 200 minutes at 5-on-5 this year, he’s 143^rd in iCF/60. That is pathetic.

Is he injured? I haven’t seen anything but that would make sense. Maybe there are some lasting effects of COVID that just make him want to dish the puck instead of shooting it? Maybe it’s a coaching decision? I have no idea what’s going on here.

So when I look at Heiskanen’s zero goals on the year, I’m not so sure there’ll be a turnaround. There is just so far to go. He still has 40-ish games to make it up and he’s certainly talented enough to do so, but fantasy owners are really on a prayer here. You won’t recoup anything close to value in a trade and we’re not sure if he’ll get better. It is just a bad spot. (feb26)

7. Jason Zucker will be out a while. He was off to a slow start this year with just four goals and seven points; this will set him back only more. In the meantime, Zach Aston-Reese has spent some time on the second line with Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust. He won’t get PP time but he could flourish there as Rust did in the past without PP minutes. It would be a big boost for them. (feb26)

8. The big news from Wednesday was that Montreal fired head coach Claude Julien and assistant coach Kirk Muller. This came off the heels of a pair of losses to the Senators, both games where the Senators looked like the better team, honestly.

While Julien has been a great 5-on-5 coach for the Habs, it’s clear that there were special teams issues throughout his tenure. Add that to the fact that bad goaltending – or rather a bad goaltender with an insane contract – can sink any coach, and, well, here we are.

This only changes their fortunes with better special teams and better goaltending. The latter, I’m not so sure about. You can read Alex MacLean's take here. (feb25)

9. I mentioned this last season, but there seems to be a correlation between coaches getting fired and poor goaltending. Carey Price‘s recent play lines up with that theory. His Thursday start against Winnipeg didn’t help the cause of his new coach either, as it was his second Really Bad Start © in three games.

Since February 4, Price has a 1-4-1 record to go with a disturbing 3.49 GAA and .870 SV%. New coach Dominique Ducharme might have no choice but to give Jake Allen a higher percentage of starts now that the Habs are no guarantee to make the playoffs in the North Division.

For three of the last four seasons (including this one), Price’s save percentage has been below .910, his goals-against average above 2.75, and his GSAA (goals saved above average) has been negative. 33 years of age isn’t ancient for a goalie (see the goalie below), but he’s been trending the wrong way for a while. Although his contract situation and reputation as a top-tier goalie should result in him receiving plenty more opportunities to right the ship and pick up many more wins, I’m having a tough time keeping him in the Top 100 Roto Rankings. (feb27)

10. Pekka Rinne may be stealing back some starts. The 38-year-old is likely going to retire at the end of the year, but he has shaken off some rust and looks ready to be a worthwhile fantasy own through the rest of the season. In his first four games he only put up one QS, but he now has five QSs in his last seven games. (feb24)

11. Tons of ink has already been spilled about Jeff Skinner and how he could get his game back, what the Sabres should do with him, etc. However, he’s not the only scorer that needs a bit of a kick-start on Buffalo, as Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall are both slumping. Buffalo doesn’t have much more to lose this season, and tanking in a year without a superstar talent at the top of the draft means there’s even less to look forward to. At least Linus Ullmark was looking like a real NHL starter (as I mentioned last week) until he got injured on Thursday. (feb24)

12. That Alex Galchenyuk hasn’t hit the ice may surprise some but it seems to me as if this is a long-term project. They want to tailor his skills to their team and that may take some time with their skills coaches. It will be interesting to see the final product. (feb23)

13. Mark Scheifele has 28 points in 20 games and this is the fifth-straight season of averaging more than a point per game. Yet he’s never mentioned when we throw around names of elite players. Is he this era’s version of Adam Oates? Just a guy who will quietly put up tons of points year after year but never get taken seriously for things like Team Canada? Sure, he’s on most projected rosters, but as a fourth-line center! Just like Oates 20 years ago. (feb22)

14. Nick Ritchie has 13 points in his last 17 games. A big part of his breakout this year is the power play. He’s already tied a career high with nine PPPts and his PPTOI averages 2:50 per game, which is also a career high (by over a full minute per game). His breakout is legit and he will maintain his value because of his power-play usage. (feb22)

15. Drake Batherson is clicking with Tim Stutzle and that’s not a bad spot to be. If those two can hit it off early in their careers, Batherson’s future obviously gets brighter. And Josh Norris seems to be hitting it off with Brady Tkachuk. Recent games give us a glimpse of the potential future for Ottawa’s scoring lines. (feb22)

16. Andreas Johnsson is a player who I’ve always liked. I felt he has some good upside, but was looking like a potential Band-Aid Boy. He's putting up a few points now, after going pointless in his first five games with his new team, and his ice time that has crept upward. They seem to really like him with Jack Hughes, which bodes well for his future too. (feb22)

17. Some humble pie for me to eat. What is happening to Kevin Lankinen is what I had guessed would happen to Collin Delia. It was a game of musical chairs. In the end, I was wrong. Delia not only lost his chance to Lankinen, but Lankinen grabbed it with authority. He spiked the ball right through the floor. He has become a top-5 goalie own in fantasy hockey so far this season. In fact, in my one league’s scoring settings he’s actually FIRST. And I had put my chips on the other guy. Fail. Do you think that fail was due to my bragging (at the start of the season) about my luck with calling goalies? Sometimes karma strikes down the cocky. (feb22)

18. Alexis Lafreniere has been a bit of a conundrum for fantasy owners. We don’t know in advance what we’re getting from the top picks of the latest draft. Yes, first overall almost always makes the team right away. Ditto for second overall. But what they do from there will vary greatly. Most of them will ‘eventually’ become the player you want them to be. People were, as Ian noted, frustrated with Nathan MacKinnon even after four years in the league. Lafreniere will be fine. So will Jack Hughes. So will Kaapo Kakko. The ‘when’ part is the question. (feb22)

19. The only draft-year players who seem to help fantasy leagues right away are the elite ones. I really felt Lafreniere fell into this category. His long-term keeper value is through the roof, don’t doubt that for a second. But why the slow start?

I think too much pressure was put on him early on. He was put with Artemi Panarin right away, and then Mika Zibanejad. He squeezed the stick too tight, couldn’t put up the expected numbers, and eventually slipped to a checking line. And that’s where he was able to just soak it in. No pressure. And that was good for him. Last week, he was eased back out of that quiet depth role and tried again with Panarin. And this time – Zibanejad was on his line too. It resulted in a goal, so maybe things are turning around for him. His 3.3 5on5 S% certainly indicates that he’s had about as terrible puck luck as it gets. But then again – Kakko had similar 5on5 S% a year ago, so that doesn’t necessarily mean that his luck will turn around within the same season. But if Lafreniere can put the jitters behind him, he can still be a fantasy asset this year. (feb22)

20. The insane run of Auston Matthews means that Mitch Marner is piling on the points… or Marner is a key reason that Matthews is scoring a goal per game. You scratch my back, I scratch yours. 

For all that Matthews is accomplishing this season, he may not get anywhere near the Art Ross Trophy. That’s because of the guy in Edmonton who is the heir apparent to Sidney Crosby as the face of the game. Connor McDavid is scoring at an absurd 1.74 PTS/GP this season, which would be a career best if he can maintain it in what has been a high-scoring North Division. This just in: he’s good. (feb21)

21. And last but certainly not least: Sidney Crosby played in his 1000^th game last Saturday. It seemed like only yesterday that Crosby was a highly-touted rookie, which is when I suddenly had an appetite for McDonald’s as I was trying to get my hands on a Crosby rookie card. Since then, he’s accomplished pretty much everything that an active player can in a career, and there’s still more to potentially be written. A Hall of Fame induction for sure. (feb21)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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