Ramblings – Emerging stars Farabee and Zacha, DeBrincat surges, and what to do with Taylor Hall? (Feb 29)
Dobber
2021-03-01
We're getting close. We're getting close? Yep, we're actually getting close. It still seems strange to be working on the Midseason Guide already, but here we are. Out on March 12 – if you bought the Ultimate Fantasy Pack or have the Gold/Platinum subscription then you will already have access. It's a great way to reset your opinion on player values, and set firm goals for your fantasy squad. Lots of moving parts in the NHL this year…
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The Rangers are my favorite team of the future right now, but man are they in shambles right now (mostly through no fault of their own). Imagine on January 12 if you looked into the future at the February 28th game. You'd see Anthony DeAngelo banished to the Taxi Squad because of his mouth and temper. You'd see Artemi Panarin sitting at home likely because of politics involving his home country. You'd see Kaapo Kakko getting scratched because of COVID protocol. Mika Zibanejad has six points in the first 19 games, and Alexis Lafreniere has just four (including an assist Sunday). Nuts!
I wonder what return the Rangers can get for DeAngelo. The team is plenty loaded up for offensive talent in all areas. But what if they got a good defensive defenseman for the left side, or a top faceoff man for the checking line (nobody on the team is above 48% right now for FOW). And then next year the addition of Nils Lundkvist, who is playing fantastic in the SHL right now, will be the final piece this team needs to move to contender status? Especially if you consider both Kakko and Alexis taking a step forward?
I don't know what's going on with Colin Blackwell, but the fringe NHLer is making himself a fantasy-worthy option right now. With Panarin and Kakko out, Blackwell was on a line with Ryan Strome and Lafreniere and the trio was the only affective line for New York on Sunday. Blackwell now has eight points in 11 games. The 27-year-old is already two points away from tying his career high, and he could get there in half the games. I'm not sure if this is for real, though it's always safe to err on the side of 'no'. Last year he seemed to break through – garnering 23 points in 26 AHL games, as well as 10 in 27 NHL games with Nashville. As a diminutive player (5-9), it's not uncommon for his type to emerge at this age. Even from out of nowhere. The fancy stats point to just a small amount of puck luck going his way (10% 5on5 S%). He's earning his place on the team, but happens when other players return? He needs to keep up this scoring pace or he'll be just another Nathan Gerbe/Rocco Grimaldi, giving us short flashes of offense when the team needs bodies.
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Charlie Coyle provided fantasy owners with two goals, five SOG, three Hits and a plus-2 performance. His line alongside the breakthrough player Nick Ritchie and newcomer Craig Smith was nearly as dominant as the Perfection Line.
That Perfection Line, by the way, was ridiculous by the Fancy Stats. Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – David Pastrnak gave up just two shot attempts on Sunday…and created 17 of their own! 17-2 in chances!
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Jack Eichel returned to the Buffalo lineup and so did Jeff Skinner. The line combinations were as follows:
Time | % | EV – FORWARDS | GF | GA | +/- | SF | SA | SF% | CF | CA | CF% |
11:57 | 23.9 | ERIC STAAL – KYLE OKPOSO – TAYLOR HALL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 60.0 | 10 | 9 | 52.6 |
9:37 | 19.2 | SAM REINHART – JACK EICHEL – V OLOFSSON | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 9 | 25.0 | 6 | 12 | 33.3 |
5:37 | 11.2 | CODY EAKIN – TOBIAS RIEDER – C MITTELSTADT | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | 1 | 5 | 16.7 |
4:36 | 9.2 | JEFF SKINNER – SAM REINHART – JACK EICHEL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 7 | 1 | 87.5 |
3:47 | 7.6 | JEFF SKINNER – R SHEAHAN – CURTIS LAZAR | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 6 | 14.3 | 3 | 8 | 27.3 |
Nothing worked against the Flyers and the Sabres continue to struggle. They coughed up 38 shots on Jonas Johansson. I don't believe in the trade rumors that are revolving around Eichel. How can he possibly want out when the team did everything in the offseason just for him. Whose fault is it that Buffalo keeps losing? Well, in a combined 36 games, he and Taylor Hall have three goals. That number, to be honest, should be 15. Twelve goals are missing from those two! I can't see a superstar having the nerve to request a trade when this is his production. Buffalo is 6-10-3 and if they had 12 more goals from those two then I'm guessing the record would be 9-7-3 or even 10-6-3.
Fancy stats for both of these players suggest 'buy' in a big way. Hall is shooting at 1.9% and the last time he did that was never. Nothing lower than last year's 6.9%. That being said, Hall has 17 goals and 62 points in his last 82 games and I haven't seen anything in the last two years to indicate that he's much better than that now. So if you do acquire Hall, just know that you're not actually acquiring 'the' Hall, but rather the 62-point guy that just may be the 'new' Hall.
I don't know if Joel Farabee is emerging as a star and that's helping James van Riemsdyk, or if JVR is exploding for this career season and helping Farabee become a star. Chicken vs. egg. But regardless, Farabee's two points Sunday give him 17 in 18 on the year and 12 in his last nine. Last year the Flyers saw Travis Konecny emerge as their future star forward and now this year it's Farabee. His ice time has jumped from 14 minutes per game to 17, and he's been on the first PP unit in the last five games.
Erik Gustafsson was a healthy scratch and Philippe Myers returned. It was Gustafsson over Shayne Gostisbehere because Ghost had points in two straight. He actually scored Sunday but the goal was later changed and he ended up pointless. I suspect Ghost, Gus and Myers rotate getting scratched until one starts consistently producing. All three are capable of it.
Carter Hart picked up a shutout in his first start in a week. His last start saw him cough up six goals on 23 shots in what was his worst outing. His numbers are back to a still-horrible 3.35 and 0.899. But last year he had similarly bad numbers to start. He heats up as he goes along.
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In an unexpected twist in line combinations with Evgeny Kuznetsov out, the Capitals had Lars Eller centering Alex Ovechkin and Conor Sheary, and Nicklas Backstrom between Tom Wilson and Jakub Vrana. This certainly paid off for Wilson and Vrana owners (two points apiece). But the Ovechkin line gave up 13 chances while creating just seven of their own (35.0 CF%) so I suspect adjustments will be made. I'm still on Team Sprong over Team Sheary, and as long as Kuznetsov is out. would like to see that same line with those two swapped.
Ilya Samsonov made his long-awaited return, making the start and stopping two of 21 shots.
Vrana, how was the game's first star and had two points, saw just 12:07 of ice time which was third lowest on the entire team. He's Rodney Dangerfield.
Pavel Zacha now has a 10-game points streak going and he is New Jersey's leading scorer after 17 games. He is now on the first PP unit and over the last 10 games or so his ice time has jumped up over 18 minutes.
PK Subban has seven points in his last 10 games. Three of those came on the power play. Deserving or not, he is their quarterback on their top PP unit. With virtually identical PP time this year (around 38 minutes each), Subban and Ty Smith each have three PPPTs and four PP SOG, while Damon Severson has one PP point and two PP SOG.
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Nashville is 25th in the league in goal scoring and on a per-game basis they are dead last. Their 49 goals in 21 games is just 2.33 goals per game. So, ready or not, Eeli Tolvanen is in the lineup on a regular basis. His goal on Sunday gives him three points in his last four games and he also has 11 SOG in that span. He was playing with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund and was out there for the team's only power play.
Viktor Arvidsson's assist Sunday snapped a 10-game pointless drought in which he was also a minus-8. Roman Josi picked up two assists giving him five points in his last four games.
While it was nice to see the Cam Atkinson – Jack Roslovic – Patrik Laine line reunited, it meant that Oliver Bjorkstrand was stuck with Boone Jenner and Nick Foligno, which is one step up from having you at center and myself on the other wing. I often say that Bjorkstrand is good enough to make his own points no matter who he plays with, but I guess there really are limits to such a statement. With Max Domi doing his best fourth-liner impression, there is nobody else for Bjorkstrand to play with. And if he gets bumped up to that top line, then it would be Cam Atkinson owners getting screwed. Domi was supposed to be the answer to their depth issues, but he's proving that he's a passenger and not a driver. I wonder if Mikhail Grigorenko (healthy scratch for three straight games now) is a possible answer?
Vladislav Gavrikov was a workhorse for Columbus, and now Coach Tortorella is chopping down his ice time. Sunday saw a season-low 12:48 and he was partnered with Michael Del Zotto instead of David Savard. Also seeing a big cut – Alexandre Texier, who was down to 7:58 Sunday. In the first 10 games he averaged around 19 minutes of ice time. In the last 10 it has been closer to 12 minutes.
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Ilya Sorokin has settled in and it actually didn't take all that long. Sure, it's the end of February, but he's had just six starts. He's had back-to-back shutouts for the Islanders now, though those games were 12 days apart. Semyon Varlamov has had a hell of a year, though. Vezina-caliber so far. But how do you deny a guy coming off back-to-back shutouts from getting his next start? It will be interesting to see how this plays out. In the end, when it comes to Varlamov though, an injury should decide things. It always does with him.
Oliver Wahlstrom is really champing at the bit now and doesn't want to be held back. Despite still averaging just 10 minutes of ice time per game, he has points in four straight including two on Sunday. Four of his five points have come on the power play.
Bryan Rust is pointless and minus-5 in his last five games. I think it's right after I wondered if we should consider him a point-per-game player, given his prior 71 games (71 points).
Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev were on Evgeni Malkin's wings. Ouch. That being said, I wonder if Coach Sullivan should try McCann again on Sidney Crosby's line and put Rust back with Malkin.
When Kris Letang and Marcus Pettersson were on the ice, the Penguins had zero shots on goal and they gave up 12 (!). They were out-chanced 16-4 when that duo was out there. Maybe put Letang back with Brian Dumoulin or P-O Joseph.
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Alex DeBrincat has arrived! With four points on Sunday, he has 22 in his last 15 and points in six straight.
After a couple of weak starts, Kevin Lankinen is back. He had given up four or more goals in three of his prior five games, but came back strong Sunday when he faced 46 shots and stopped 44 of them. It should be noted that Lankinen is 4-0-0 with a SO and four QS (100% QS%) against Detroit. Against all other teams he is 5-3-3 with six QS (54.5% QS%).
Nikita Zadorov's ice time is starting to creep up towards 20 minutes per game and his Hits are rising with it. On his new team he is averaging nearly four Hits per game – he has 79 Hits in his last 21 games. His 0.26 points-per-game average so far is a career-high pace too, as a nice bonus.
Adam Boqvist has learned enough from the press box and is applying that knowledge on the ice now. He's getting trusted with more ice time, too. Each of his last two games topped 19 minutes now, and he hadn't seen that much ice time before that. He has five points in his last five games, with three of those coming on the power play. Obviously if he can consistently do this then he becomes a top fantasy own. Boqvist owners have been waiting for this, and to be honest it didn't look like this would be the year.
400th career goal…
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See you next Monday.