Wild West: Impending Free Agents
Grant Campbell
2021-03-01
Weekly Western Leaders (to February 28th, 2021) – in bold leads the NHL
Goals – 14 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton (18 – Auston Matthews)
Assists – 26 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton
Points – 40 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton
PPP – 18 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton
Shots on Goal – 89 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton (98 – Brady Tkachuk)
Shooting % (min 20 SOG) – 27.0 – Joe Pavelski – Dallas (27.6 – Jonathan Huberdeau)
PIM – 37 – Tyler Myers – Vancouver (39 – Ben Chiarot)
Best plus/minus – plus 15 – Justin Faulk – St. Louis, Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton (plus 18 – Marner, Edmundson)
Worst plus/minus – minus 14 – Quinn Hughes – Vancouver (minus 17 – Rasmus Dahlin)
Hits – 83 – Nikita Zadorov – Chicago (103 – Brady Tkachuk)
Blocked shots – 70 – Adam Larsson – Edmonton
FOW – 296 – Ryan O'Reilly – St. Louis
FOL – 239 – Bo Horvat – Vancouver
FO% (min 110 FO) – 61.6 – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare – Colorado (67.6 – Luke Glendening)
Giveaways – 31 – Darnell Nurse – Edmonton
Takeaways – 21 – Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton, Mark Scheifele – Winnipeg (22 – Mitch Marner)
Highest Skater GAR (goals above replacement) – 10.0 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton
Lowest Skater GAR – minus 5.0 – Duncan Keith – Chicago (minus 5.4 – Nikita Gusev)
Highest xGAR (expected goals above replacement) – 10.2 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton (13.1 – Matthews)
Lowest xGAR – minus 5.0 – Rickard Rakell – Anaheim (minus 5.3 – Mika Zibanejad)
Highest CF% (min 11 GP) – 61.8 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado
Lowest CF% (min 11 GP) – 35.5 – Devin Shore – Edmonton
Highest PDO (min 11 GP) – 111.3 – Nicholas Beaudin – Chicago (112.9 – Cal Foote)
Lowest PDO (min 11 GP) – 90.6 – John Leonard – San Jose (86.5 – Colton Sceviour)
Goalie wins – 10 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado, Connor Hellebuyck – Winnipeg (12 – Andrei Vasilevskiy)
Save percentage (min 8 starts) – 94.1 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas
Quality starts – 11 – Jordan Binnington – St. Louis (12 – Vasilevskiy)
Quality start % (min 8 starts) – 83.3 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (90.0 – Chris Driedger)
Highest Goalie GAR (min 8 starts) – 11.0- Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (17.0 – Vasilevskiy)
Lowest Goalie GAR (min 8 starts) – minus 5.2 – Martin Jones – San Jose (minus 7.4 – Thomas Greiss)
Shutouts – 3 – John Gibson – Anaheim, Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas
It is never too early to look at impending free agents on each team and see what players might be dealt or kept going forward. I have a feeling that teams won't wait until the trade deadline on April 12th.
We will focus on unrestricted free-agents and any significant restricted free agents for each team in the West and how much projected cap space each team has available for 2021-22.
Anaheim – ($22.1 million projected cap space)
The Ducks will have quite a bit of cap space if they choose to use next season as $12.7 million will come off the books between Ryan Getzlaf and David Backes alone. They might elect to bring Getzlaf back on a one or two-year deal at close to the league minimum if he is interested, but the problem is that players of his stature still expect important minutes and he is a shadow of his former self. In his last 48 games, he has four goals and 17 assists and that is still playing on the first unit of the power play for the most part.
I think the team will bring back Jani Hakanpaa of the other UFAs, but will move on from Ben Hutton, Carter Rowney, Andy Welinski and Ryan Miller and will move them for any value coming back The restricted free agents will be Danton Heinen (who was rumoured to be part of a deal for Jake Virtanen), Sam Steel, Maxime Comtois and Josh Mahura. If Heinen is on the block, the Ducks will not likely bring him back at around $3 million/year. Comtois is the team's leading goal scorer and needs to be locked up but has defensive issues and Steel has been disappointing this season still hovering around 0.35 pts/game even with top-six minutes and first unit PP time. Steel only averages just less than a shot per game and will need to increase as he isn't getting enough primary assists. Mahura reminds me of quite a few other offensive-minded defensemen who struggle away from the puck in their end and are struggling to find their foothold in the NHL permanently because they just don't quite generate enough offence to make up the difference.
Arizona – ($32.0 million)
The Coyotes back end should look very different next season as it will more than likely lose Alex Goligoski, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Jason Demers with their combined $14.4 million of cap space to unrestricted free agency. Derrick Brassard, Drake Caggiula, Michael Chaput, Jordan Oesterle, Ilya Lyubushkin and Antti Raanta are the other UFAs and all of these players should be on the market for any value the Coyotes can get in return. They still have to ice a team, so I'd expect only one or two of the defence to be dealt this season and the fact Hjalmarsson has an NMC.
The restricted free agents are Conor Garland who has emerged as one the better players on the roster and should see a pretty good raise, and Adin Hill. Hill at 24-years of age should allow the Coyotes to part with Raanta and get something in return. Phoenix will need to spend up to the floor of the cap next season, so will need to spend at least $12 million of their projected cap space next year.
Calgary – ($14.5 million)
UFAs for the Flames are Josh Leivo, Joakim Nordstrom, Nikita Nesterov, David Rittich, Derek Ryan, Brett Ritchie and Michael Stone. The only player that jumps out at me that might warrant keeping is Rittich as Jacob Markstrom will need relief at around 25-30 games per season and I'm not sure Calgary has a viable option other than Rittich. The other players are essentially place markers until the Flames develop or acquire some better depth options. Leivo is coming off a fairly significant injury so might need more than a season to be back to 100 percent. Having Ryan off the books will give Calgary a shot to upgrade in the bottom six but it will be marginal.
The restricted free agents are Sam Bennett (who seems to be in every trade rumours out of Calgary), Dillon Dube, Dominik Simon, Juuso Valimaki and Oliver Kylington. Bennett will be difficult to justify keeping at just under $3 million per season and should be moved at some point. Dube and Valimaki will be re-signed for sure, but Simon and Kylington might find themselves dealt or much lower down the depth charts. This roster is very top-heavy in salary (if the core stays intact) and they don't have much cap space next season to improve their depth as much as is needed.
Chicago – ($10.6 million)
With Jonathan Toews out for who knows how long, I thought the Blackhawks would struggle this season but they have pleasantly surprised so far this year, especially in the goalkeeping department. I keep seeing Mattias Janmark's name pop up at the bottom of almost every advanced stat showing that he is amongst the worst players, but he keeps on putting up points reminiscent of his first two years in the league where he had 15 and 19 goal seasons, so I'm not sure what to think. I only know he is to become an unrestricted free agent along with Carl Soderberg and Zack Smith and that will be about $6.6 million off the books for Chicago next year as I don't see the team bringing back any of them except at deals under $1 million AAV.
Restricted free agents are David Kampf, Lucas Wallmark, Pius Suter, Brandon Hagel, Nikita Zadorov and Alexander Nylander and the biggest decision will be on Zadorov as he will be expecting around $3.5 million per season and that won't leave the Blackhawks much wiggle room to deal with everyone else.
Colorado – ($24 million)
The Avalanche have some pretty important decisions to make heading into next season. Their UFAs are Gabriel Landeskog, Brandon Saad, Matt Calvert, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Philipp Grubauer. The key players are Landeskog and Grubauer who might command 11-14 million/year between the two of them. I don't think the team will bring back Saad or Calvert, but might Bellemare.
The restricted free agents are even more important as Cale Makar, Tyson Jost and Conor Timmins are in that club, with the focus on Makar 99.9 percent. Even if they bridge him or sign him long-term the number should be $8 to 11 million per season, but Sakic has got MacKinnon to buy in for less before. The team will be up against the cap for the next few years like most other top teams in the league.
Dallas – ($16.8 million)
The UFAs for Dallas are Andrew Cogliano, Blake Comeau, Justin Dowling, Jamie Oleksiak, Mark Pysyk, Joel Hanley and Stephen Johns and I don't think any of these players will be brought back for anything more than league minimum.
The reason for this is because of Miro Heiskanen becoming a restricted free agent and much like Cale Makar, his demands will be up there. Other RFAs are Jason Dickinson, Joel Kiviranta, Rhett Gardiner and Nicholas Caamano. Expect a decision on Dickinson being re-signed or dealt as he's getting into the salary territory of $1.5 million or more than his production might not warrant.
Edmonton – ($24.6 million)
The big-name on the list of UFAs for Edmonton is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins who most certainly won't want to take a pay cut on his $6 million AAV contract. Others on the list are Alex Chiasson, Tyler Ennis, Gaetan Haas, Patrick Russell, Adam Larsson, Tyson Barrie, Mike Smith, Slater Koekkoek and Joakim Nygard. If I am Chiasson I sign for the league minimum and hope that I still see some top unit power play time, but Ennis, Haas, Russell, Smith, Koekkoek and Nygard will be depth players if re-signed to league minimum contracts. Tyson Barrie gave a one-year discount deal and will expect much more next contract than his $3.75 million while whipping boy Adam Larsson who is having a decent season will have a hard time expecting $4.2 million from the Oilers again.
Restricted free agents are Jujhar Khaira, Dominik Kahun, Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson and none of these players will be difficult to bring back at $1 million or less per year. The Oilers should be active again next season for a goaltender.
Los Angeles – ($25 million)
With Alex Iafalo the King's only unrestricted free agent, I think Los Angeles will make every effort to bring him back as he's an important member of this team but like any contract, they had best be diligent on term and money, but easier said than done.
The restricted free agents consist of Andreas Athanasiou, Blake Lizotte, Trevor Moore, Michael Amadio, Matt Luff, Matt Roy and Lias Andersson. The team took a rider on Athanasiou at $1.2 million for this season only and even though he has battled injury, he has been much better defensively than last season with Detroit where he led the league with the worst plus/minus. The development of the Kings prospects will determine the fate of all of the other RFAs listed here save Matt Roy who has secured himself a role on the team. The Kings should trust the process and let their prospect pool develop but there will be salary cap room next season if the temptation is too much.
Minnesota – ($22 million)
The UFAs for the Wild are Marcus Johansson, Nick Bonino, Nick Bjugstad, Ian Cole and Brad Hunt. As this group makes up about $15 million in salary it is unlikely that any of them come back for more than $1 million next year, which would more than likely only include Hunt.
Minnesota has three key RFA to re-sign next season, Kevin Fiala, Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov along with Ryan Hartman to a lesser extent. I have a feeling that the three will eat up $14 to 17 million of the $22 million cap space next season and that the Wild will struggle for depth unless they make some sort of deal to free up some more space.
Nashville – ($18.8 million)
With Mikael Granlund, Erik Haula, Jarred Tinordi, Brad Richardson, Pekka Rinne and Luca Sbisa all becoming UFAs, the only player I can see the Predators bringing back on a short-term deal is Pekka Rinne as they need to buy some time for 11th overall pick Yaroslav Askarov to develop.
The reason being that restricted free agent Juuse Saros has struggled this season, and the Predators can either think about getting another goalie in free agency or go with Saros and Rinne for another one or two seasons as is. Other RFAs are Dante Fabbro, Mathieu Olivier and Eeli Tolvanen who all should be qualified and signed for close to $1 million or less.
San Jose – ($10.5 million)
The Sharks are a bit of a mess in their end and in net and things aren't helped that they won't have much cap space to deal with either next season unless some deals are made.
UFAs are Marcus Sorensen, Stefan Noesen, Patrick Marleau, Matt Nieto and Devan Dubnyk. I can't see any of these players being brought back for anything north of a $1 million AAV except for Dubnyk if they are willing to give him more rope the rest of this season and he does well.
Restricted free agents are Ryan Donato, Noah Gregor, Rudolfs Balcers, Dylan Gambrell and Nicholas Meloche. I thought Donato would be better than he has been but his PDO is 96.9 and he is getting a fair number of SOG (2.2/game) so perhaps his 2nd have will be better or maybe his production is capped at around 0.45 pts/game. Gregor, Balcers, Gambrell and Meloche are depth players with Gregor having the most potential to become a solid 3rd or 4th liner.
St. Louis – ($22.4 million)
The Blues roster could look quite different next season as Jaden Schwartz, Mike Hoffman, Jordan Binnington, Tyler Bozak and Carl Gunnarson are all set to become unrestricted. Schwartz will be looking for similar money to his $5.375 million AAV, while Hoffman has started to fit in well and will look for similar money. Binnington is still a very good goalie but has seen his game slip closer to the average from his fantastic rookie season. It's hard to say what he will be looking for but the Blues don't have much option for Plan B other than free agency or trade. If Bozak and Gunnarson are left to walk and I suspect that Hoffman as well, that is at least $10 million AAV between Schwartz and Binnington.
Restricted free agents are Zach Sanford, Jordan Kyrou, Jacob De La Rose, Vince Dunn, Robert Thomas and Ivan Barbashev. Kyrou has been a revelation this season so far and would like to stay in the NHL for a few years. Sanford, Barbashev and Thomas are important pieces to the Blues, while Dunn has been shopped and will more than likely continue to be. None of these guys will have the leverage necessary to break the bank, so if Hoffman is a good fit he can be brought back as well.
Vancouver – ($23.7 million)
Things have gone south for the Canucks this season and they will need to become sellers if they don't go on a run in the next week. UFAs for the Canucks are Brandon Sutter, Tanner Pearson, Alexander Edler, Jordie Benn, Travis Hamonic and Sven Baertschi. Unless there are some major discounts from the current salaries, Sutter, Pearson, Benn and Edler won't be back. Edler has an NMC so can and more than likely will veto any deal the Canucks might have in store for him, but this team needs to get some value for Sutter, Pearson, Benn and Hamonic, which is something they have been very hit and miss on in recent years.
You could say that the only three players that matter in the RFA category for Vancouver are Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes and Thatcher Demko. Pettersson moved his agent to the same agency as Quinn Hughes a few weeks back and the good news is that they will sign at the same time, the bad news is that it will be for a lot of money ($ 9 million AAV plus). Demko has not been 'bubble' Demko and has played well enough in most games, but you notice how good a goalie is when he leaves and the Canucks notice Markstrom being gone. Adam Gaudette could be moved at some point as he has struggled to put up points but things should revert a little in his favour as he is averaging 2.2 SOG/game and his PDO is 95.2. He just needs to stay the course and his points/game won't get up to 0.56 like last season but maybe 0.40. The other RFAs will be qualified except the jury will be out on Hawrlyk and Rafferty.
Vegas – ($2.5 million)
The Golden Knights have Tomas Nosek and Alec Martinez as UFAs next season with only $2.5 million of space. Something will have to give for the team to bring him back unless their saving grace is having the Seattle Kraken take one of Marc-Andre Fleury or Robin Lehner in the expansion draft.
The Vegas lineup for next season is one of the more pre-set of the West but just saying that will bring all sorts of change on the Strip as they haven't followed a conventional script to date. Why start now?
Winnipeg – ($22.2 million)
The Jets have Paul Stastny, Mathieu Perreault, Adam Lowry, Nate Thompson, Trevor Lewis, Derek Forbort, Tucker Poolman and Laurent Brossoit all slated for unrestricted free agency at the end of the season. They got their guy in Pierre-Luc Dubois so I wouldn't expect them to bring back Stastny for another go around in Winnipeg. Perreault has been good this season but I don't think the Jets would like to pay him anything more than $1 million on a short-term deal to bring him back. Lowry will be coveted by other teams because of his size and the Jets might not want to get into a bidding war, so he could be gone along with Thompson and Lewis. It looks like Forbort, Poolman and Brossoit might have found a home in Winnipeg if they are interested in shorter-term cheap contracts.
Restricted free agents for Winnipeg will be Andrew Copp and Neal Pionk. Copp has given up some defence to get some offence and had pretty good success so far this year, but whether it will continue is another story. It is good timing for him as he is coming off of a $2.28 million AAV contract and should expect a raise. Speaking of raises, Neal Pionk has elevated his game from 2019-20 and is having an even better season and will expect to double his $3 million AAV contract he currently has if he maintains it. The good news is that the Jets should be able to afford both contracts.
There is a lot of hockey left before the trade deadline in April and other factors are at play next season including the expansion draft, but free agency and how it affects rosters is one of my favourite things to look at.
Thanks for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please let me know below and/or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.