Ramblings: Vatrano’s new role; St. Louis updates; Radulov; Zaitsev – March 2
Michael Clifford
2021-03-02
The Rangers got K'Andre Miller back from the COVID list over the weekend and while it looks like Kaapo Kakko may take a bit longer, they did get Filip Chytil back in practice on Monday. This team hasn't had much depth all year and Chytil coming back will help out a lot with that.
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Frank Vatrano was moved to the top line for Florida. Likely a temporary situation with Anthony Duclair’s injury but he can shoot and hit and now has an elite centre. He also scored Monday night for the third straight game.
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An update on Teuvo Teravainen:
At least we got a bit of clarity.
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The Oilers claimed Alex Stalock off waivers, which probably doesn't bode well for the future of Mikko Koskinen. Given how Mike Smith has played of late – this is as of Monday afternoon – it doesn't seem as if this move was made with the intent of getting rid of Smith, and no team will claim Koskinen's contract. But Koskinen was the starting goalie on Monday night so… insurance, I guess? Not sure what the plan is here.
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The Stars got some good news:
This team has had Roope Hintz in and out of the lineup, no Tyler Seguin all year, and are 2-6-4 following a 4-0 start. That they're still .500 means they're still well in the running, and Radulov's return couldn't come any sooner.
Radulov wasn't in line rushes so don't expect him back immediately but that he's skating with the team is a real good sign. Until then, it looks like they're loading the top line with Benn-Hintz-Pavelski.
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A lengthy list of injuries and updates for the Blues:
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I had someone ask me via DM and also received a couple emails at our main Dobber account so just to let everyone know: yes we will be releasing a Midseason Dobber Guide. This season is shorter but it's not any less important to those in season-long leagues or anyone in keeper/dynasties. The work continues, even in a shortened season.
As to when exactly the Midseason Guide will be released, that would be the end of next week- March 12. You can pre-order now and it will be available for download when it's released next weekend. Help support us and give yourself an edge heading into fantasy playoffs.
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I have some thoughts on the Buffalo Sabres and it's tangentially related to fantasy so bear with me.
This isn't a very good team. I think people were sold some hope in the offseason in the acquisition of Taylor Hall and that should have helped, but one thing often overlooked here: this is an absolute buzzsaw division. I made that point before the season started to a Buffalo fan on Twitter:
There are no teams in the bottom-7 of the league by expected goal share in the East Division (two in the Canadian, two in the West, three in the Central) which means that Buffalo, despite being ostensibly a good roster, is one of the punching bags of their own division. Should they be better than New Jersey? Probably. The Rangers? Maybe, with Artemi Panarin out of the lineup. But did anyone really expect this team to be better than the Bruins? The Capitals? The Flyers? The Penguins? The Islanders? My guess is you said no to at least four of those teams, and that means Buffalo is not a playoff team.
Now, there may be a chasm between "not a playoff team" and whatever the performances were on the weekend. I suspect that it's the latter where all the rage comes from, because the Sabres looked about as engaged in their weekend games as the Star Trek Enterprise after Captain Picard says his famous words. But that they aren't a playoff team isn't really a shock.
I would also be remiss if I didn't mention that there is a lot of positive regression to come. The team is shooting 4.9 percent at 5-on-5 and no team shot under 6.2 percent for a season over the last three years. Yeah, 5-on-5 scoring is down, but I'm not betting on a team setting a four-year low by, relatively speaking, over 25 percent.
So, yeah, it's pretty bleak for Sabres fans right now. I would say it's not wholly unexpected and it will actually get better over the next 30-some games. If I am Buffalo, now is the time to stay patient.
On the other hand, I absolutely adore when NHL teams make panic changes like firing their coach because their $10M goalie couldn't save a kitten from drowning in a kitchen sink, so I encourage Buffalo management to trade Eichel, eat some salary on Skinner, dump Ullmark. Do all that stuff. I love the chaos. Bring it to me.
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Alex Nedeljkovic had arguably his best game with the Hurricanes this year – yes, even better than his shutout – in Carolina's 3-2 overtime win over Florida. He saved 44 of 46 shots and was surely the reason Trocheck could score a late goal to tie and Necas could score an overtime goal to lift the team to victory.
Besides the goal, Necas had two assists to give him 14 points in 18 games on the year. He is still sporting a fairly low shooting percentage so if that comes up, he could start flirting with a point-per-game pace.
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Ottawa had a very strong game at home on Monday night after a pair of very uneven games in their first two against Calgary in recent days. They took a 5-1 win in which they dominated most of the game after the second period, and the kids like Drake Batherson (two goals) and Tim Stuetzle (two assists) stepped up for the offence. It really just was a solid game from top to bottom, and these kinds of games show the real future of the Sens once these guys have more games under them, and the guys yet to come arrive.
Colin White scored his sixth of the year into the empty net. Nikita Zaitsev had a great across-the-board performance with an assist, a plus-1 rating, a shot, five blocks, and a hit. He really does bring some of everything in the fantasy realms.
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I was looking over some PP/PK stats yesterday in search of some regression markers and here are a few things I found.
Colorado Penalty Kill
It is absolutely hilarious how good Colorado goaltending has been with the PK this year, posting a .927 (!!!) save percentage when down a man. Only four other teams are at least .900 and no other team is above .910. If Colorado's save percentage at 4-on-5 were to be ranked among teams at 5-on-5, they'd be top-10. Colorado is allowing just 3.32 goals per 60 minutes, the fewest in the league, as a result. The team allowing the third-fewest is Tampa Bay at a full goal more (4.32). That kind of gives an indication how much higher their goals allowed is going to get when that regresses a bit.
For the record, no team last year finished at .908 or better and that was in a season with power-play conversion rates lower than they are now. The Avalanche's team PK save percentage is going to drop, it's just a matter of how much. I suspect that Grubauer's .923 save percentage may not last all season.
St. Louis Power Play
A season after finishing second in the NHL with a 16.5 percent shooting rate at 5-on-4, the Blues are 28th right now by shooting percentage at that strength. There was a big change with Torey Krug coming in for Alex Pietrangelo in the offseason, but the rest of the pieces were largely the same and Krug is a proven PP commodity. Is it a bad power play?
My guess is: probably not. They are top-10 by expected goals and top-5 by shot attempt rate at 5-on-4. The other three teams that fit that exact criteria are Florida, Carolina, and Edmonton, and all three teams are among the elite on the power play this season. It is entirely possible that low shooting percentages persist all year because, really, the NHL season only lasts another nine weeks or so. There isn't a lot of time for the turnaround to happen.
With all that said, the re-introduction of Vladimir Tarasenko should only help and there is a lot of good regression to come. Now might be a time to buy low on some of these guys, or as low as can be considering they're still mostly having good years.
Detroit Red Wings Power Play
I don't have a whole lot to add here. This team has a pathetic power play and while things are probably going to get a bit better – only because they cannot get worse – it's worth mentioning that this team still is looking for a true power-play quarterback. I had hopes, as did others, that it would be Filip Hronek but that certainly doesn't look the case anymore. While I am a fan of Christian Djoos, it's hard to believe that he's the long-term answer here.
Four words, my friends: wait for Moritz Seider.