Looking Ahead: Ducks Won’t Be Foul
Adam Daly-Frey
2021-03-05
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, Mar. 3rd
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Cam Fowler, D, Anaheim Ducks (Available in 95 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Fowler's been an ignored piece for most of the season, which is due to a combination of being on Anaheim, and having Kevin Shattenkirk take Fowler's spot on the "top" power play; so far this season, Fowler's been the much better fantasy option, with 2G-10A in 23 games so far on 5.4 percent shooting compared to Shattenkirk's 0G-6A line with the same number of shots on goal for each (37).
Playing over 22 minutes per game and with no Hampus Lindholm in the lineup for the foreseeable future (placed on injured reserve), Fowler's a great short-term add for teams light on defensemen or teams that lost a star like Cale Makar to injury. Fowler's made even more enticing by the fact that Anaheim has a great schedule this month (see below), and should be available given his low ownership.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Pavel Zacha, C, New Jersey Devils (Available in 69 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – The sixth-overall pick just six years ago has yet to really perform close to expectations – he hit his career-high in points last year with just 32 in 65 – but through the first 18 games of the season, Zacha's performed tremendously well with 6G-8A and is playing as a top-line center. With Nico Hischier starting the year on injured reserve and since returning to injured reserve, Zacha's competition for top center is only Jack Hughes and a 35-year old Travis Zajac, which means minutes should be free for Zacha.
That increase in role has also led to an increase in ice time, as Zacha's current ice time of 16:51 per game is a 40-second increase over last season and a full minute and a half over his career average. It's important to note that Zacha's currently shooting an unsustainable 18.2 percent which will plummet, but Zacha's a double-digit career shooter (10.1 percent) and his current point pace combined with the opportunity in front of him make him a long-term buy. This is a speculative add and would only be recommended in deep leagues but he's worth a long look.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Miro Heiskanen, D, Dallas Stars (Owned in 79 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Heiskanen's major breakout came in the post-season last year when he popped for 6G-20A in 27 playoff games, while playing just under 26 minutes per night, which was a big factor on why he's rostered as a top-25 defenseman.
Heiskanen hasn't hit those post-season highs this season, with only nine assists through the first 17 games and only 24 shots on net so far and he's playing 23:27 per game – which is a great number, but two minutes less per night than during the breakout – and is still stuck on the second power play unit. With Dallas really struggling to score lately (six goals in their past five games) and Heiskanen's struggles to pick up points, he's not someone that needs to be dropped or dealt but he's definitely someone who fantasy players should be concerned about.
The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Mike Hoffman, W, St. Louis Blues (Owned in 83 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – At the start of the season, it looked like there was nobody in a better position to sneak a low ADP and score at an elite level: Hoffman scored 65 goals and 64 assists in just 151 games as a Florida Panther, and he was getting the perfect opportunity to play on a Blues team that was without its top winger in Vlad Tarasenko.
Unfortunately for Hoffman and those who drafted Hoffman, the speedy winger's been shifted to the third line for St. Louis and younger wingers like Zach Sanford and Jordan Kyrou have been getting the opportunities instead. With the return of Tarasenko just literal days away, that's just one more player that Hoffman will have to compete with for ice time; on the topic of ice time, Hoffman's averaging just 15:31 per game this season and in his last three games he's sitting below 14 minutes. He's topped 17 minutes just seven times already.
Hoffman has still scored well – 6G-10A in 22 games and a huge +10, and he's a volume shooter which is great in leagues that track that. Don't expect the scoring to continue as the ice time diminishes though, and it would make sense to ship him to a team before Hoffman finds himself in the Jeff Skinner zone.
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from March 5 to March 17
Washington – Playing on off-days always helps fantasy-wise, and Washington play three of those this period, with games on Friday the 5th, Sunday the 7th and Monday the 15th. Those are three of seven games the Caps will play this period, which breaks down as three games against the Flyers and one each against the Bruins, Devils, Sabres and Islanders.
Edmonton – Although scoring only one goal total in three games against the Maple Leafs doesn't scream "have confidence in this team!", the Oilers have a phenomenal upcoming schedule and this would be the best time to use their secondary scoring. Edmonton will play three games on the road (Calgary twice and Vancouver) and four home games (Calgary once and Ottawa three times.)
Anaheim – The Ducks also get the full seven games this period, and while three of those come against the Avalanche – all in Colorado – the Ducks will also get to play against the Kings and Sharks. The Ducks haven't scored at a high clip so far this season, but there's no better time than this period to get started.
Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Detroit – The Red Wings get a mini break after playing Carolina on Thursday night, with Detroit not playing a game until Tuesday the 9th – their first game of the period and one of only four games between the 5th and 17th. Based on volume, the Red Wings should be avoided, but Detroit also has to play two tough opponents in Tampa Bay and Carolina (twice each.)
Nashville – Losing important players in Ryan Ellis and Luke Kunin will always hurt a team as shallow as the Predators – who have scored two goals or less in 14 of their 22 games so far – and with the Predators playing six games this period (which only a few teams are doing), they're a team to avoid. Nashville will play road games against Tampa Bay and Carolina (twice each) with a game in Dallas, with their lone home game against Florida.
Chicago – The Blackhawks have been a happy surprise offensively this year – they've scored four or more goals in seven of their 23 games so far and have yet to be shut out – but Chicago has also played the Red Wings six times and put up 25 goals in those games. Chicago plays in a tough division when the Red Wings are excluded, and that comes up in the Blackhawks' upcoming schedule: two games each against Tampa Bay, Dallas and Florida, with only the games against Tampa coming at home.
March 5 to March 11 |
Best Bets |
WSH 5.0175 – Away BOS PHI PHI- Home NJD NJD |
PIT 4.405 – Away BUF- Home PHI NYR NYR |
VGK 4.37 – Away SJS SJS MIN MIN – Home |
TBL 4.37 – Away CHI CHI DET DET- Home |
NYI 4.3575 – Away – Home BUF BUF BOS NJD |
Steer Clear |
DET 1.995 – Away – Home TBL TBL |
OTT 2.945 – Away CGY EDM EDM – Home |
SJS 3.045 – Away – Home VGK VGK STL |
WPG 3.0875 – Away MTL TOR TOR- Home |
TOR 3.0975 – Away VAN – Home WPG WPG |
March 6 to March 12 |
Best Bets |
EDM 4.83 – – Home CGY OTT OTT OTT |
ANH 4.425 – Away COL – Home LAK LAK SJS |
PIT 4.405 – Away BUF – Home PHI NYR NYR |
NYI 4.3575 – Away – Home BUF BUF BOS NJD |
DAL 4.3575 – Away – Home CBJ NSH CHI CHI |
Steer Clear |
DET 1.995 – Away – Home TBL TBL |
CHI 2.7075 – Away DAL DAL – Home TBL |
SJS 3.0875 – Away ANH- Home VGK STL |
WPG 3.0875 – Away MTL TOR TOR – Home |
TOR 3.0975 – Away VAN – Home WPG WPG |
March 7 to March 13 |
Best Bets |
WSH 5.16 – Away PHI PHI PHI- Home NJD NJD |
ANH 4.83 – Home LAK LAK SJS SJS |
EDM 4.7775 – Away VAN- Home OTT OTT OTT |
PHI 4.4625 – Away – Home WSH BUF WSH WSH |
TBL 4.4275 – Away CHI DET DET – Home NSH |
Steer Clear |
DET 1.995 – Away – Home TBL TBL |
ARI 2.755 – Away COL COL MIN – Home |
LAK 3.04 – Away ANH ANH COL – Home |
COL 3.045 – Away – Home ARI ARI LAK |
MIN 3.045 – Away – Home VGK VGK ARI |
March 8 to March 14 |
Best Bets |
ANH 4.83 – – Home LAK LAK SJS SJS |
EDM 4.7775 – Away VAN – Home OTT OTT OTT |
TOR 4.29 – Away OTT- Home WPG WPG WPG |
CBJ 4.2 – Away – Home FLA FLA DAL DAL |
COL 4.2 – Away – Home ARI ARI LAK LAK |
Steer Clear |
CGY 2.205 – Away – Home MTL MTL |
NYR 2.565 – Away PIT BOS BOS – Home |
NSH 2.7075 – Away CAR CAR TBL – Home |
CHI 2.755 – Away DAL DAL FLA – Home |
FLA 2.865 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home CHI |
March 9 to March 15 |
Best Bets |
TBL 4.485 – Away DET DET – Home NSH NSH |
PHI 4.405 – Away NYR- Home BUF WSH WSH |
TOR 4.29 – Away OTT – Home WPG WPG WPG |
EDM 4.4675 – Away VAN CGY- Home OTT OTT |
OTT 4.2525 – Away EDM EDM – Home TOR VAN |
Steer Clear |
MIN 2.94 – Away – Home VGK ARI ARI |
ARI 2.945 – Away COL MIN MIN – Home |
DET 2.9925 – Away – Home TBL TBL CAR |
SJS 3.135 – Away ANH ANH VGK- Home |
STL 3.145 – Away LAK- Home VGK VGK |
March 10 to March 16 |
Best Bets |
ANH 4.53 – Away COL- Home LAK SJS SJS |
EDM 4.4675 – Away VAN CGY – Home OTT OTT |
COL 4.4625 – Away – Home ARI LAK LAK ANH |
OTT 4.2525 – Away EDM EDM – Home TOR VAN |
BUF 4.2475 – Away NJD- Home PIT PIT WSH |
Steer Clear |
NYR 2.665 – Away BOS BOS – Home PHI |
NSH 2.7075 – Away CAR TBL TBL – Home |
CHI 2.945 – Away DAL FLA FLA – Home |
DET 2.9925 – Away – Home TBL CAR CAR |
CBJ 3.045 – Away – Home FLA DAL DAL |
March 11 to March 17 |
Best Bets |
CGY 4.41 – – Home MTL MTL EDM EDM |
OTT 4.3575 – Away EDM – Home TOR VAN VAN |
WPG 4.295 – Away TOR TOR – Home MTL MTL |
PHI 4.295 – Away NYR NYR- Home WSH WSH |
BUF 4.2475 – Away NJD – Home PIT PIT WSH |
Steer Clear |
NSH 2.7075 – Away CAR TBL TBL – Home |
MIN 2.835 – Away – Home ARI ARI ARI |
CHI 2.945 – Away DAL FLA FLA – Home |
DET 2.9925 – Away – Home TBL CAR CAR |
CBJ 3.045 – Away – Home FLA DAL DAL |