Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Here though, instead of there being three bowls of porridge, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating just how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), or how cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or how “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

With two months of the 2020-21 campaign in the books, I have enough data to do my first Goldipucks column for the season. Who's on tap? Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Kyle Connor. As usual, to get the most out of this column stop here and guess which of these three players was too hot, which one was too cold, and whose stats are "just right." Then you read on to find out if you got all three guesses correct, and, in tandem with last month's "how to" column, to hopefully obtain useful information to help you do this kind of analysis on your own players. 

Vincent Trocheck (all stats for him and the others are current through March 6th games)

In 2017-18 Trocheck became a fantasy darling thanks to posting – in 82 games – 75 points, 145 Hits, 55 Blocks, 287 SOG, 27 PPPts and 853 FOW. As far as recent numbers, we see 72 points, 299 SOG, 213 Hits, 79 Blocks, 20 PPPts, and 932 FOW. Sounds great, but the catch is those stats represent his combined totals from 112 games in 2018-19 and 2019-20. Poolies rightfully wondered whether he was a one-hit wonder, or if instead his injury from 2018-19 was having lingering negative effects on him. Confidence wasn't instilled either when he tallied a mere two points in the seven games he played after being surprisingly dealt to the Hurricanes last season. Yet for 2020-21, Trocheck looks to resurrected, with 21 points in his first 22 games and still superb peripherals. Does this mean he back on track? Sadly, for those who own him, no, as what we're seeing is the result of unsustainable good luck.

The biggest red flag in terms of Trocheck's scoring is his offensive zone starting percentage (OZ%) of 42.1%. Granted, his OZ% was only 47.3% in his breakout season; but there's a big difference between 42% and 47%. How big? Looking at 2019-20 and the over 70 forwards who had an OZ% as low or lower than what Trocheck's is this season, only three had over 2.0 points per 60 minutes played, with the highest being 2.3/60. In fact, you have to go all the way up to an OZ% of 47.9% to find a player in 2019-20 who even had 2.5 points per 60 minutes. Considering that Trocheck is at 3.0/60 for 2020-21, that's 33% higher than anyone who had a lower OZ% last season and well above nearly all those who had a much higher OZ%. Clearly that's a sign his scoring rate is likely to drop.

On top of that, his shooting percentage (SH%) is nearly double his career rate despite him not taking fewer SOG. Yes, he's taking a higher percentage of SOG from 0-15 feet as compared to recent seasons, but not to an extent that can justify/explain a SH% that's so inflated versus his career rate. Trocheck also has a mere three primary assists, with his other 18 points coming in the form of goals (12) and secondary assists (six). Just one player (Tyler Toffoli) has fewer primary assists for 2020-21 while also having tallied 20+ points, and Toffoli is widely regarded as having overachieved for the season thus far. In other words, not fine company in which to find oneself.

Trocheck's PP stats in particular are concerning, as even in his 2018-19 season he averaged just under one PPPt per every three games, whereas for 2020-21 thus far his rate is just under one per every two games. Beyond that, his ten PPPts have come despite him having fired only 15 SOG on the PP. The average number of PP SOG for the 11 players with more PPPts than him? Try 20. And just one forward (Dominik Kubalik) with more PPPts has received less overall PP time than Trocheck, with Trocheck's PPPts total ranking him tied for 12th among forwards yet his PP TOI per game putting him only 86th.

In terms of IPP, Trocheck's at ES (70.0%) and on the PP (72.4%) are both his highest since his 2017-18 season (73.5%, 77.1%). Although the fact he did this previously is a sign he could do so again, the concern is in his other seasons since becoming an NHL regular in 2015-16 his average IPPs were 64.1% at ES and 59.6% on the PP. If this was the only area where he was overachieving, one could look past it. However, with this on top of everything else, it's further mounting evidence of his unsustainable good luck for 2020-21 thus far.

Seeing Trocheck bounce back after being left for dead in fantasy circles is a nice story, but one which will not have as happy of an ending as it would seem. Simply put his metrics, alone and especially in the aggregate, strongly suggest he'll come back to earth in a big way. Expecting him to score at even a 60-point pace over the remainder of the campaign would be a stretch unless somehow his OZ% spikes, which is unlikely. As such, Trocheck has been TOO HOT for 2020-21 thus far and gets a rating of 9.5. Even in multi-cat leagues, where he still would hold value if/when his scoring craters, he's probably a sell; in points leagues, best to pull the trigger on moving him ASAP.

Aleksander Barkov

Pop quiz – how many point per game seasons has Barkov had? Would you believe just one? Despite his high fantasy profile and tallying 96 points in 2018-19, only once since entering the league has he hit that all-important point per game mark. By the same token though, he is still only 25 years old and looks to be playing some of the best hockey we've seen from him despite no longer being tethered to Jonathan Huberdeau. Should we expect Barkov to continue his 93-point scoring pace for the remainder of 2020-21? No, but only because his production rate should climb even higher.

One key thing to consider is in posting 95+ points in a season by age 23, Barkov became just one of just 12 players to do so by age since 2000-01. Of the 12, all but three (Eric Staal, Ilya Kovalchuk, Nicklas Backstrom) failed to score at a 100+ point pace at least one more time in their career, and only Staal failed to record a second 90+ point pace season. The odds are in favor of Barkov if not turning into a superstar, like the remaining players on the list (Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Evgeni Malkin, Joe Thornton, Steven Stamkos, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl) did, at least producing a season or two of 100+ point scoring pace, that is unless he turns into a true one year wonder like Staal.

Could this be the season he reaches a 100+ point pace? His fast start is promising; however, Barkov has started hot and then not sustained the same level of production over the rest of the slate. Look no further than 2019-20, when in Q1 he had 25 points in his first 20 games (102-point pace) yet still finished below the point per game mark again. This year though there are several factors pointing toward him finishing at a 100+ point pace.

Although Barkov is taking the ice for 72.4% of his team's PP total minutes, which slots him 16th among all forwards who've played 15+ games, his 3:27 of PPTOI per game ranks him only 43rd. How is that the case? It's because as a team Florida ranks only 21st worst in total number of PP opportunities thus far this season and as recently as last week they were in the bottom five. In 2019-20 they were 16th in that same area, so chances are as the year progresses his 72.4% number should stay roughly the same yet his PPTOI per game should uptick, helping bolster his PP scoring.

Something else notable about Barkov is his current SOG rate, which is by far the highest of his career at 3.65 per game. Moreover, his PP SOG ranks him within the top 20 among all forwards and ninth among centers, with more than half the centers above him either being on a 100+ point pace for this season or having scored at that pace in a prior campaign. Also, not only is Barkov's SOG rate higher, but his shot selection is vastly improved, as he's never previously averaged even one SOG per game from 0-15 feet, while this year he's had 32 in only 23 games, with the 32 being within the top four among all forwards and the only center with more being a guy by the name of Connor McDavid. All this, and somehow his shooting percentage (9.5%) is well below is career rate prior to this season (14.0%), suggesting he should see his SH% not only catch up to his norm, but perhaps exceed it due to his PP SOG and volume of shots at close range.

Another metric to focus upon is Barkov's secondary assists. Why? Because of how few he has. In fact, of his 18 assists only two have been secondary assists! Of the five forwards with more primary assists, their average secondary assist total is eight. Among forwards with 20+ points, there are 15 with five or fewer secondary assists and just a third even have double digit primary assists. In a nutshell, Barkov should've amassed as many as a handful more assists in the normal course, and, accordingly, should get more as the season ensues, further helping to bolster his point pace.

Those of you waiting for Barkov to live up to expectations that were set back in 2018-19 should find yourselves rewarded if you've been patient with him since then, as signs are pointing toward him doing even better for the remainder of 2020-21 than he has thus far. I'd venture to say he should score at a 100-105+ point pace over the rest of the season and set himself up for a 95+ point pace to be his new normal. Accordingly, Barkov has been TOO COLD for 2020-21 thus far and he gets a rating of 3.5. With four points in his last two games and his scoring pace up to 93 the window on getting Barkov for a bargain price might have closed. Yet some GMs might be wary of a repeat of his fast start then cooling off last season; if so, try to grab Barkov from them before their doubts in him are erased.

Kyle Connor

What has Connor done over the past three seasons, after his abbreviated 2016-17 first campaign? Oh, just seen his goal, SOG, and points per game rates each increase. In fact, his 103 goals over the prior three campaigns ranks him tenth among all NHLers, with only Auston Matthews being both ahead of and younger than him. Poolies figured it was safe to assume Connor would do even better this season, what with him not even hitting his prime as yet, Winnipeg's offensively potent core largely intact, plus the departure of Patrik Laine making Connor the unquestioned top winger for the team. Thus far though he's not shown gains in scoring rate compared to 2019-20. Can we expect any improvement from him over the remainder of the season? Probably not, as point per game scoring looks to be his cap.

Laine's departure and the simultaneous arrival of Pierre-Luc Dubois was thought by some to make it more likely for Connor to stay tethered to Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler; however, it's been Dubois or Paul Stastny who've taken that spot, with Connor being put on the second line. And while that line includes another young talent in Nicolaj Ehlers, plus Stastny or Dubois, no one is going to confuse them for Scheifele or Wheeler. And Connor's overall IPP is somehow not only lower than last season, but never once has it passed the 70% threshold that's usually a prerequisite for point per game output. This suggests Connor is not a driver of offense but more of a supporting player. In fact, if we look at forwards from last season who had an IPP below 70%, only four (J.T. Miller, Andrei Svechnikov, Bryan Rust and Mike Hoffman) had a higher points per 60 minutes rate than Connor's 2.9. That his IPP is still low despite mainly being on a line with arguably less talented players than Scheifele and Wheeler, plus his points per 60 having actually increased, together suggest that Connor, although not a major driver of offense, finds a way to score, in his case thanks to a high goal total. However, his goal total is not likely to increase by much and his IPP suggests he won't see more assists than goals, and, in turn, to be able to produce much better than his roughly point per game output from last season and this slate thus far.

On the other hand, Connor is very active on the PP, with the third most PP SOG among all NHLers, behind only Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl who have 18 and 14 PPPts respectively, versus Connor's seven. Also, last season Connor had more than three times as many non-PP SOG as PP SOG, whereas this season the ratio is three regular SOGs to every two PP SOGs. The result has seen Connor's PPG rate increase, also helped by the absence of Laine. His overall PPPt scoring is barely higher though and his IPP on the PP remains below 70%, but it is on track to increase by more than seven percentage points for the second consecutive year. Perhaps he'll be able to make gains in PPPts to offset points he's losing at ES by being on the second line.

Thus far it looks like Connor is neither too hot nor too cold. Can we learn anything by looking at player comparables? Including his abbreviated 2016-17 and prior to this season, Connor had averaged 0.42 goals per game and played in 200+ games. That sounds like an impressive feat, and no one is saying it isn't. The issue is when we look at wingers since 1990-91 who also met both criteria, we get some who had stellar NHL careers (Alexander Mogilny, Alex Ovechkin, Pavel Bure, Teemu Selanne, Paul Kariya, Ilya Kovalchuk, Keith Tkachuk, Dany Heatley) but also a fair share who didn't live up to early expectations (Rick Nash, Mikael Renberg, Geoff Sanderson, Bobby Ryan, Jonathan Cheechoo, Alexander Semin, Thomas Vanek). Can we dissect the outputs of these players to figure which path Connor could follow? Among those in the latter group, none had a goals-per-game over their first four seasons above 0.45, whereas those in the first group, with the exception of Tkachuk, all had a 0.48 goals per game or better rate. What does this mean? Maybe some reason for concern, or maybe not, especially since Connor had among the fewest games played in his first four seasons due to playing a mere 20 during 2016-17, so unlike most of the others we can't assess his totals over four full seasons. Long story short, player comparables don't conclusively point in one direction or the other.

All things considered Connor's 2020-21 has been JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.25. While it's always possible he could get reinstalled on the top line and get more PPPts, his track record of sub-70% IPPs and ES and, thus far, on the PP makes it difficult to envision him doing better than he had last season and for 2020-21 to date. If you can find someone to overpay for Connor in a keeper, it's a trade you might want to entertain.

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Questions for Mailbag

My monthly mailbag column is just a few weeks away, so be sure to send your question(s) to me for in depth, deep dive answers. To get your question(s) to me, you can either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, (2) send an email to [email protected]with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.