Frozen Tools Forensics: Unexpected Ownership Numbers

Chris Kane

2021-03-12

At about the halfway point of the (fantasy) season, it seems an appropriate time to take stock of what we thought compared to where various players have landed. We have had enough games played for most teams that we should be able to draw some conclusions, or at least have some idea of where players are headed. There are a number of players who are doing something quite different than anticipated, so today we are going to take a look at a few of those players and see if we can pinpoint why.

This week on Frozen Tools: Unexpected Owns

For a bit of process here. To highlight players with big discrepancies we are going to be using some average draft position (ADP) numbers to get an idea of what managers were expecting from players and current owned percentages to get an idea of where managers are valuing players now. Essentially what we are looking for are players who weren't drafted or drafted late and are highly owned.

We are then heading over to Frozen Tool Player Profile to dig a little deeper into what is happening for that player. In this situation, we typically will be looking at the overall stats, the players' deployment info (time on ice, line mates etc.), and some of the 'advanced' stats.

One additional point to make here – we are going to be using ADPs, but all leagues have a slightly different size. We have a significant chunk of players who were not drafted – so they don't pose a comparison problem, but a ten-team league could have a few as 150 players used, and a 14-team league could have closer to 250.

To jump right in then, I wanted to start with the very high-owned players.

There are surprisingly few 100 percent owned players at this time – only nine. It is who you would generally expect (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews etc.)  but the lowest drafted person on the list is Victor Hedman who has an ADP in the mid-20s, so end of the second round.

The more interesting list is when we drop the rostered percentage a bit. If we take it down to 90+ percent owned the list contains 83 players, but the latest drafted players are below.

Player NameADP% Rostered
Joe Pavelski209.591%
Marc-Andre Fleury204.895%
Tyler Toffoli180.291%
Semyon Varlamov179.792%

Likely these are players that have popped up in your league. Joe Pavelski,