Daily Fantasy Saturday: Penguin Power

Stephen Dotzel

2021-03-13

With many teams crossing over the halfway mark of their seasons, and the fact "Selection Sunday" is just a day away for the NCAA Tournament, it got me thinking. Who would I pick as my "Final Four" if I were to fill out an NHL bracket today?

After some thought, I would have to go with Tampa Bay, Toronto, Vegas, and Boston. It's certainly not easy making a pick for that East Division though. I picked Boston before the season and while they're currently sitting in fourth (with multiple games in hand), I haven't seen anything that worries me enough to make me come off that pick. As for the other divisions, I'm not going out on much of a limb picking the teams who are either in first or second in the standings, but that doesn't mean there can't be a March Madness-style upset when the playoffs do roll around. Keep in mind regardless of the playoff matchups, the two teams facing off will have played each other at least seven times this season already. And then the teams meeting in the final four will not have played a single game against each other. It all should make for a great tournament.

As for daily fantasy, we have no shortage of options with a whopping ten games on the main slate. With plenty to sift through let's get right into it. Here are some suggestions on how I'm handling this slate. All players and prices are from DraftKings Main Slate (7 pm EST) but can be applied to FanDuel as well.

Top Options

PIT – Sidney Crosby ($7,400), Jake Guentzel ($7,700), Bryan Rust ($7,300)

In the words of the late, great Tom Petty, the Buffalo Sabres are "Free Fallin'". They have lost nine straight games and 13 of 15 since returning to play from their Covid layoff. On the flip side the Penguins come in having won four straight. In goal tonight will be Carter Hutton who, when you remove any Ottawa and Detroit goalies from the mix, has the second-worst save percentage in the league at .883. Sidney Crosby has owned the Sabres in his career with 64 points in 43 games and is riding a five-game point streak entering the contest. Crosby has cracked double-digit fantasy points in all five games as well. His two linemates of Guentzel and Rust also join him on the power play giving you full correlation between the three. Stack them up and consider adding in Kris Letang ($6,400) too if you have the salary cap space.

EDM – Connor McDavid ($9,200), Leon Draisaitl ($8,600)

No surprise here with this duo, the matchup with Vancouver is a plus-one. Since being put on the same line together McDavid and Draisaitl have been tearing it up. They come into Saturday with a combined 16 points and 156.6 DraftKings points in just the last three games, led by Draisaitl's monster 53.5 DK point performance on Wednesday. The upside here when these two are together is simply unmatched from a fantasy perspective, making it extremely difficult to not have at least a little exposure to them. Stacking is quite difficult given the price tags so I'd likely leave Kailer Yamamoto ($5,200) off in most cases in order to save money. Instead, I'd rather take a stab with someone like Alex Chiasson ($2,700) who is near the site minimum and just hope he can stick and contribute on the top power play.

VGK – Max Pacioretty ($7,800), Mark Stone ($5,600), Shea Theodore ($5,500), Chandler Stephenson ($3,900)

This group is making back-to-back appearances both on the ice with games Friday and Saturday as well as in this article. Despite a 4-0 win last week they didn't quite come through for us in fantasy with just one goal between them. The Blues started Binnington here on Friday which likely means the Golden Knights will see Ville Husso Saturday night. This is an upgrade for Vegas as Husso's .884 SV% is among the worst in the league. Both Pacioretty and Stone were held in check against the Wild this week but that was against one of the league's hottest goaltenders, a change of scenery could be just what they need to get back on track. Defenseman Theodore has not scored a goal since January 22 despite 39 shots on goal since then, eventually one is going to go in and I'm betting it will be sooner than later. I like either pairing Theodore with both Pacioretty and Stone at the expense of Stephenson or using all four together.

FLA – Aleksander Barkov ($6,900), Jonathan Huberdeau ($5,900), Patric Hornqvist ($6,200), Aaron Ekblad ($6,000)

The Panthers offense is clicking which has propelled them to four wins in their last five games. In those four wins they've scored five, four, six, and five goals. Leading the charge has been Huberdeau and Ekblad, who have each accounted for eight points over the past five games. Joining this duo on the power play is Barkov and Hornqvist, who have kicked in another six and four points respectively, making the strategy of combining all four into a power play stack a viable one. At even strength the combo of Hornqvist and Huberdeau is my preferred target, but if looking for some value I like the thought of going to the Barkov line where his line mates of Carter Verhaeghe ($4,600) and Mason Marchment ($3,400) are very affordable.  

Quick Hitters

VAN – Not only will the Oilers be playing their third game in four nights, they also have to travel from Edmonton to Vancouver between Friday and Saturday games. Meanwhile, the Canucks has been idle since Wednesday. If you think the wear and tear catches up with Edmonton, Vancouver could be a very good under-the-radar stack in what will likely be some elevated Oilers ownership. My targets of choice will be the line of J.T. Miller ($5,300), Brock Boeser ($5,700), and Nils Hoglander ($3,700). Consider adding on Quinn Hughes ($5,000) or Bo Horvat ($5,600) as well who join Miller and Boeser on the power play. 

NYI – Outside of a shocking 1-0 shutout victory over the Bruins on Sunday, the Devils have been getting blasted with 22 goals allowed in four games. The Isles were able to score five times against New Jersey on Thursday and there's little reason not to believe they couldn't approach that number again tonight. Anders Lee will miss the game so it remains to be seen what the Isles will do with their lines, but I'd expect Mathew Barzal ($5,800) and Jordan Eberle ($5,300) to be together. Whoever joins them will certainly be at a lower price point than Lee would have been, which will make this line even more affordable to stack. If you need to go cheaper still, try Brock Nelson ($4,800) and Anthony Beauvillier ($4,300) who will likely make up two-thirds of the second line.

PIT2 – Evgeni Malkin ($6,200) comes in with points in six straight and offers a discount as compared to the Penguins top line in the same matchup. You can pair him with Kasperi Kapanen ($4,500) who has five points in the last games including two goals scored.

MTL – The Canadiens on Thursday had what was likely their worst performance under Dominque Ducharme to date, mustering only 18 shots and one goal against the Flames. I'm expecting a bounce back here and I'll be rostering the line of Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($3,000), Brendan Gallagher ($5,600), and Tyler Toffoli ($7,000) in the hopes of getting it. 

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ANA – Picking on the Sharks has been a viable strategy all season which puts a normally overlooked team like the Ducks in play. Most will look to Max Comtois ($4,400) and Rickard Rakell ($5,500) who have been providing most of the scoring of late, but the duo of Adam Henrique ($4,200) and Jakob Silfverberg ($4,200) comes in very cheap and are correlated with each other at both even strength and the power play. 

Top Value Options for Filling Out Lineups:

C – Yanni Gourde ($4,000), Evgeny Kuznetsov ($3,800), Pierre-Luc Dubois ($3,500), Tomas Hertl ($3,400)

W – Comtois ($4,400), Andrew Mangiapane ($4,000), Zach Aston-Reese ($3,200), Mattias Janmark ($2,800)

D – Connor Murphy ($4,200), Mike Matheson ($3,800), Vince Dunn ($3,300), Calvin De Haan ($2,800)

Goalie Picks

Semyon Varlamov ($8,200)

Carey Price ($7,200)

Tristan Jarry ($8,400)

Kevin Lankinen ($7,100)

Mikko Koskinen ($8,100)

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes, especially this year with the Covid protocols. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real-time. You can also reach out to me personally and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11 CAR vs PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11 MTL vs CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11 BUF vs OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11 TOR vs BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11 NYI vs PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11 MIN vs L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11 STL vs T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11 WPG vs UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11 COL vs SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11 ANA vs VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11 S.J vs CBJ

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
ALEX LAFERRIERE L.A
MARTIN NECAS CAR
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MIN Players
22.3 MATS ZUCCARELLO MARCO ROSSI KIRILL KAPRIZOV
16.9 MARCUS JOHANSSON JOEL ERIKSSON EK MATT BOLDY
15.9 RYAN HARTMAN FREDERICK GAUDREAU MARCUS FOLIGNO

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