Wild West: Evaluating the Bottom Eight of Each Western Team

Grant Campbell

2021-03-15

Weekly Western Leaders (to March 14th, 2021) – in bold leads the NHL

Goals – 17 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton (21Auston Matthews)

Assists – 35Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Points – 52Connor McDavid – Edmonton

PPP – 22Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Shots on Goal – 119 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton (132Brady Tkachuk)

Shooting % (min 26 SOG) – 24.5 – Alex Tuch – Vegas (25.5Chris Kreider)

PIM – 39 – Tyler Myers – Vancouver (53 – Trent Frederic)

Best plus/minus – plus 20 – Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton (plus 25 – Joel Edmundson)

Worst plus/minus – minus 16 – Quinn Hughes – Vancouver (minus 24Rasmus Dahlin)

Hits – 127 – Jani Hakanpaa – Anaheim (134Brady Tkachuk)

Blocked shots – 91Adam Larsson – Edmonton

FOW – 388 – Ryan O'Reilly – St. Louis

FOL – 315Bo Horvat – Vancouver

FO% (min 140 FO) – 59.8 – Ryan O'Reilly – St. Louis (65.7 Luke Glendening)

Giveaways – 37 – Nate Schmidt – Vancouver (46 Thomas Chabot)

Takeaways – 28Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton

Highest Skater GAR (goals above replacement) – 13.2Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Lowest Skater GAR – minus 6.9Phil Kessel – Arizona

Highest xGAR (expected goals above replacement) – 12.0 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton – (13.4Auston Matthews)

Lowest xGAR – minus 6.1 – Duncan Keith – Chicago (minus 6.6Kyle Palmieri)

Highest CF% (min 15 GP) – 63.3Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado

Lowest CF% (min 15 GP) – 37.0Devin Shore – Edmonton

Highest PDO (min 15 GP) – 109.4 – Logan Stanley – Winnipeg (110.8Jared McCann)

Lowest PDO (min 15 GP) – 91.2 – Noah Gregor – San Jose (90.4 – Chris Wagner)

Goalie wins – 15 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado (17Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Save percentage (min 10 starts) – 93.5Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas

Quality starts – 15Philipp Grubauer – Colorado (15Semyon Varlamov)

Quality start % (min 10 starts) – 73.7 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (75.0 – Semyon Varlamov, Chris Driedger)

Highest Goalie GAR – 17.3 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (21.5Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Lowest Goalie GAR – minus 8.0 – Ville Husso – St. Louis (minus 10.9Thomas Greiss)

Shutouts – 4Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas, Philipp Grubauer – Colorado

There always seems to be a lot of discussion on how teams manage their cap space and how much money is wasted in the bottom portion of the lineup. I thought we would look at the teams in the west and see how much money was tied up in the bottom-six and bottom pairing of their current lineups and see if it was always a waste.

For this purpose, we will look at forwards that average less than 15 minutes per game and defensemen less than 17 minutes per game who have played 10 games or more. I'm going to use GAR from www.evolvingwild.com for this exercise and rank the teams according to cumulative GAR for a rough estimate on how each of these bottom eight are doing.

1st in GAR – Winnipeg – $15.56 million (4th) (average $1.94 million); Cumulative GAR 22.4

Mason Appleton ($0.9M; 4.2) Mathieu Perreault ($4.125M; 6.4) Nate Thompson ($0.75M; -0.9)

Trevor Lewis ($0.75M; 0.3) Andrew Copp ($2.28M; 2.3) Adam Lowry ($2.92M; 2.4)

Dylan DeMelo ($3.0M; 4.2) Logan Stanley ($0.863M; 3.5)

With the addition of Pierre-Luc Dubois and Nikolaj Ehlers playing so well, Andrew Copp and Adam Lowry have seen their elevated minutes decrease a little recently and have shored up the bottom-six in the forwards which have allowed the Jets to reel in Toronto and be in striking distance of passing them in the standings.

Nathan Beaulieu has seen a lot of time at third-pairing on defence as well, but has been much less successful as his GAR of minus 4.7 is the worst on the team. The team should look to upgrade over 36-year old Nate Thompson at some point this season as well.

2nd – Minnesota – $21.85 million (1st in spending) (average $2.73 million); Cumulative GAR 21.0

Victor Rask ($4.0M salary cap; 3.2 GAR) Ryan Hartman ($1.9M; 2.2) Nico Sturm ($0.725M; 3.1)

Nick Bonino ($4.1M; 1.1) Nick Bjugstad ($2.05M; 0.9) Marcus Foligno ($2.875M; 5.5)

Carson Soucy ($2.75M; 3.7) Ian Cole ($3.45M; 1.3)

The Wild have spent the most money on the bottom portion of their lineup in the NHL and it is paying dividends this season as the team is in second place just behind Vegas in the West.

The strength of these Wild players listed is that most of them have been able to slot in the top six for a few games and have performed well there. If Kevin Fiala and Zach Parise can both lift their games to where they should be, the Wild should have no issue making the playoffs this season as they have been carried so far.

Losing Marcus Foligno to injury will surely hurt as his replacement most assuredly won't be able to match what Foligno has done to this point of the season, so I'm sure the Wild are hoping he isn't out long.

3rd – Calgary – $14.87 million (5th) (average $1.86 million); Cumulative GAR plus 4.7

Dillon Dube ($0.778M; 1.8) Milan Lucic ($5.25M; 0.7) Sam Bennett ($2.55M; -0.5)

Derek Ryan ($3.125M; 3.3) Josh Leivo ($0.875M; 0.6) Joakim Nordstrom ($0.7M; -0.3)

Juuso Valimaki ($0.894M; 0.4) Nikita Nesterov ($0.7M; -1.3)

With Darryl Sutter now in charge it will be interesting to see the changes to the bottom of the roster, as already Nordstrom has been replaced with Brett Ritchie and Nesterov with Oliver Kylington along with Derek Ryan seeing a regular role once again.

The Flames have a pretty good bottom eight in the making but might want to upgrade on Nesterov/Kylington and Ritchie/Nordstrom.

4th – San Jose – $9.51 million (12th) (average $1.19 million); Cumulative GAR 3.9

Matt Nieto ($0.7M; -2.5) Ryan Donato ($1.9M; 1.7) John Leonard ($0.925M; 0.7)

Patrick Marleau ($0.7M; -3.1) Rudolfs Balcers ($0.735M; 1.4) Dylan Gambrell ($0.7M; 1.9)

Nikolai Knyzhov ($0.797M; 0.8) Radim Simek ($2.25M; 3.0)

The Sharks have lost Balcers to injury, which is too bad because he was playing very well with seven points in 13 games. If the team is to improve in the second half of this season, they are going to have to take a tough-love approach to play Patrick Marleau every night and they might need to upgrade on Matt Nieto as well.

The bottom eight are doing well on the low budget the Sharks have allocated to it.

5th – Dallas – $12.03 million (7th) (average $1.41 million); Cumulative GAR plus 3.8

Jason Robertson ($0.792M; 2.0) Joel Kiviranta ($0.925M; 0.9) Andrew Cogliano ($3.25M; 3.6)

Nicholas Caamano ($0.738M; -1.7) Jason Dickinson ($1.5M; -1.2) Blake Comeau ($2.4M; 1.7)

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Mark Pysyk ($0.75M; -0.9) Andrej Sekera ($1.5M; -0.6)

The injury to Tyler Seguin has hurt the Stars a lot down the middle, as Radek Faksa is forced to play over 17 minutes per night when he should be listed above. The team has tried several different players in the lineup to shore things up, Ty Dellandrea, Justin Dowling, Tanner Kero, Joel L'Esperance and the latest Rhett Gardner, but none of them have proved good enough.

The Stars are so top-heavy in salary that they can't afford to spend much in the bottom eight, so it will be difficult for them to upgrade on the bottom pairing of Pysyk, Sekera or Joel Hanley.

6th – Edmonton – $9.2 million (11th) (average $1.26 million); Cumulative GAR plus 2.9

Tyler Ennis ($1.0M; -0.1) Alex Chiasson ($2.15M; 1.2) Jujhar Khaira ($1.2M; -0.1)

Dominik Kahun ($0.975M; -1.8) Josh Archibald ($1.5M; -0.5) Gaetan Haas ($0.915M; 1.6)

Caleb Jones ($0.85M; -0.8) William Lagesson ($0.725M; 3.4)

With Kyle Turris in Covid protocol, Haas has taken over his spot in the lineup and might keep the spot when Turris can return. The same thing goes for Slater Koekkoek and Lagesson. Evan Bouchard probably deserves to see some more game time as well, but it probably won't come at the expense of Ethan Bear, Adam Larsson or Tyson Barrie.

Kahun has been a disappointment for the Oilers as they thought they might have a potential 15-20 goal scorer if lined up with countryman Leon Draisaitl. Fortunately for Kahun, Devin Shore, Patrick Russell and James Neal are the only players competing for two spots currently, so Kahun should get back into the lineup sooner than later.

7th – Colorado – $17.27 million (3rd) (average $2.16 million); Cumulative GAR minus 2.1

Valeri Nichushkin ($2.5M; 2.0) Tyson Jost ($0.874M; 0.9) Joonas Donskoi ($3.9M; 3.0)

Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.8M; -1.0) J.T. Compher ($3.5M; -0.7) Matt Calvert ($2.85M; -0.8)

Conor Timmins ($0.925M; -3.1) Bowen Byram ($0.925M; -2.4)

J.T. Compher, Conor Timmins and Bowen Byram are all out of the lineup currently but should be back sooner than later. The Avalanche have gone with Jacob Macdonald, Greg Pateryn and/or Daniel Renouf in their absence with marginally better results. Regardless, the team will look to upgrade the third pairing as it is hurting them.

Before Compher was hurt, the team was icing one of the most expensive fourth lines outside of Vancouver with just as much success.

8th – Vancouver – $17.98 million (2nd) (average $2.25 million); Cumulative GAR minus 1.7

Jake Virtanen ($2.55M; -2.0) Adam Gaudette ($0.95M; -3.1) Antoine Roussel ($3.0M; -2.0)

Brandon Sutter ($4.375M; 1.3) Jay Beagle ($3.0M; -0.1) Zack MacEwen ($0.85M; 2.1)

Jordie Benn ($2.0M; 3.9) Travis Hamonic ($1.25M; -1.6)

It has been no secret that the money the Canucks have spent on the bottom of their lineup has been burned at the altar of analytics and the eye-test. Virtanen, Hamoni and Gaudette might improve as the season progresses, but Roussel and Beagle are unlikely to and Sutter has more than likely peaked with his play. The same could be said for Jordie Benn.

It is puzzling that Zack MacEwen has struggled for playing time over the likes Jayce Hawryluk and Marc Michaelis recently. There are too many upgrades here to list and the Canucks have no money either. I was surprised the Canucks ranked this high on the list.

9th – Los Angeles – $11.43 million (7th) (average $1.43 million); Cumulative GAR minus 2.7

Trevor Moore ($0.775M; 0.7) Blake Lizotte ($0.925M; -2.3) Carl Grundstrom ($0.725M; -3.3)

Michael Amadio ($0.7M; -2.1) Austin Wagner ($1.13M; 0.7) Andreas Athanasiou ($1.2M; 4.9)

Olli Maatta ($3.33M; -1.0) Sean Walker ($2.65M; -0.3)

The Kings have Olli Maatta on the Covid protocol list currently and Tobias Bjornfot and Kurtis MacDermid have seen ice time in his absence but both have struggled a little, especially Bjornfot.

The Kings are very young in their bottom eight, with the oldest player being 26 years old and the average age is just over 24 years. They have been better than a few more experienced and more expensive units, so improvement should come from within the organization utilizing their excellent prospect pool.

10th – St. Louis – $11.28 million (8th) (average $1.41 million); Cumulative GAR minus 3.8

Samuel Blais ($1.5M; 0.3) Kyle Clifford ($1.0M; -0.8) Mackenzie MacEachern ($0.9M; -0.6)

Oskar Sundqvist ($2.75M; -1.6) Zach Sanford ($1.5M; 1.4) Ivan Barbashev ($1.475M; 0.7)

Nikko Mikkola ($0.787M; -0.9) Robert Bortuzzo ($1.37M; -2.3)

The Blues have been hit with some injuries this season and having Vladimir Tarasenko back must be welcome news. His return does push Zach Sanford down a little but it should help the team out overall.

Dakota Joshua has replaced Barbashev who is out for a few weeks with injury, but he is unlikely to be an upgrade. The Blues are very thin on defence and they will need to look outside the organization for help to improve their bottom two.

11th – Anaheim – $13.84 million (6th) (average cap hit $1.73 million) for a cumulative GAR of minus 5.2.

Troy Terry ($1.45M; 2.4) Max Jones ($0.863M; 0.2) Isaac Lundestrom ($0.925M; -1.9)

Nicolas Deslauriers ($1.0M; -2.2) Derek Grant ($1.5M; -1.1) Danton Heinen ($2.8M; 1.2)

Jacob Larsson ($1.2M; -4.3) Josh Manson ($4.1M; 0.5)

The Ducks knew they would ride or die with a few of their young players this season as they have eight players in their lineup that are under the age of 23. Some struggle comes with the territory and former first-round draft picks, Isaac Lundestrom and Jacob Larsson have both had their share.

On defence, Josh Mahura has seen a few games until Josh Manson returns to the lineup and has held his own. Ben Hutton has averaged over 18 minutes per game, but has two points in 23 games and is minus 11 with a GAR of minus 1.8, hardly the campaign he needs to stay in the league.

12th – Arizona – $11.27 million (10th) (average $1.41 million); Cumulative GAR minus 6.2

Lawson Crouse ($1.53M; -4.9) Derick Brassard ($1.0M; 2.0) Johan Larsson ($1.4M; -1.2)

Drake Caggiula ($0.70M; 1.1) Christian Fischer ($1.0M; -0.5) Michael Chaput ($0.7M; -0.7)

Jason Demers ($3.94M; -2.2) Ilya Lyubushkin ($1.0M; 0.2)

The Coyotes will need to improve this area of their team next season but will be hard-pressed to do so as they have a lot of money tied up in the top portion of their roster. Having Demers come off of the books should help a little, but Lawson Crouse is an enigma much like Jake Virtanen in Vancouver.

13th – Vegas – $8.31 million (13th) (average $1.04 million); Cumulative GAR minus 7.8

Nicholas Roy ($0.75M; 1.1) Cody Glass ($0.925M; 0.0) Keegan Kolesar ($0.725M; 0.7)

Tomas Nosek ($1.25M; -4.4) Ryan Reaves ($1.75M; -3.3) William Carrier ($1.4M; -1.9)

Nicolas Hague ($0.791M; 2.5) Dylan Coghlan ($0.715M; -2.5)

Notwithstanding a hat-trick from Dylan Coghlan, he has struggled outside of that and has averaged just over 14 minutes per game for a reason. Don't buy high on him.

The Golden Knights fourth line has struggled a little this season and they aren't the cheapest options out there. Look for this to be addressed at some point this season or next.

14th – Chicago – $7.18 million (14th) (average $0.897 million); Cumulative GAR minus 8.4

David Kampf ($1.0M; -2.3) Phillip Kurashev ($0.84M; -0.4) Brandon Hagel ($0.88M; -0.5)

Matthew Highmore ($0.725M; -2.1) Ryan Carpenter ($1.0M; -1.0) Lucas Wallmark ($0.95M; -0.2)

Ian Mitchell ($0.925M; -2.6) Adam Boqvist ($0.894M; 0.7)

The Blackhawks owe their surprising start to this season to better-than-thought goaltending, their power play and Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane.

Nicholas Beaudin deserves more game time (GAR 3.7) along with five points in his 12 games but Chicago likes to keep right-handed defensemen on the right side and vice versa, so he might struggle to get time ahead of Duncan Keith, Calvin De Haan or Nikita Zadorov on the left side this season.

In looking at the fourteen teams in the West, spending money for your bottom eight can pay dividends and perusing the depth of Winnipeg, Minnesota and Calgary it is tough to argue against. But then Colorado and Vancouver have not had nearly the success they were hoping for with their payrolls. San Jose and Edmonton have had limited success spending less than most, but Chicago and Vegas are near the bottom of the league and they have what they have paid for, which is very little.

Thanks for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please let me know below and/or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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