Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column.To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1– In a keeper league counting G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, HIT, BLK, how would the following defensemen rank: Dougie Hamilton, Morgan Rielly, Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar, Thomas Chabot, Shea Theodore, Rasmus Dahlin?

Makar is at the top. He's a scoring machine, chips in decently in non-scoring categories and gets amazing deployment, including the most PPTOI per game for any d-man since 2015-16. Plus, the Avs have him and other stars, as well as great prospects, all age 25 or younger, boding well for their offense in seasons to come. I've got Hughes second, as most everything one can say about Makar applies to Hughes, except Hughes is a rung below Makar in multi-cat contributions.

Third is where it gets a tougher. Were it not for him having taken a step back this season, Dahlin would be the easy pick. But as his OZ% has dropped he's not responded as well as one would've hoped. Still though, he's only 20 and in his third season, the first two of which saw him put up numbers not seen from a teen rearguard since 40 years ago from Phil Housley. For me that's enough for him to still be third overall.

After him I'm going with Theodore. I'll admit I was skeptical he'd be able to carry what he did in the 2020 playoffs into 2020-21, but he's done well despite the presence of Alex Pietrangelo and only taking the ice for just over 55% of his team's man advantage minutes. However, he gets nearly no SH duty and has scored well despite a lower OZ%. In other words, he's proving he's the real deal – a true scoring machine. If he was on a different team, he might even be ranked ahead of Dahlin.

For the last three, if Rielly was younger I'd give him the edge; but he's 26 and I worry he's too team-focused, as last season we saw him voluntarily cede PP1 to Tyson Barrie. Still, he's the true top defenceman on a Toronto team that has huge firepower, so that cannot be ignored, nor can his multi-cat contributions. Hamilton is the oldest of the remaining three and the categories don't include SOG, where he shines. I'm worried his stats from last season might have been a very hot streak that's not indicative of what he'll bring to the table year after year. That, and the fact he's played himself out of two teams despite all the talent he has. Chabot is looking more like he did in 2018-19, and Ottawa is very much a team on the rise. They also have Erik Brannstrom in the fold though, and I'm not sure I see those two forming a one-two punch but rather competing for points and resulting in neither hitting his full potential. I'd put them in the order of Rielly, Chabot and Hamilton, but all three are pretty close.

Topic #2 – In a cap league with goals counting as two points, how do the following forwards rank: Filip Forsberg ($6M through 2021-22), Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5M though 2022-23), Ryan Nugent Hopkins (UFA to be, unless he resigns before the offseason), Vincent Trocheck ($4.75M through 2021-22), and Max Pacioretty ($7M through 2022-23)?

The temptation would be to put Trocheck first, as after all his numbers are even better than when he broke out in 2017-18. However, a closer look – as was provided in my Goldipucks column from last week – reveals his SH% and power-play scoring rate are both very elevated, and his IPP both on the power play and at ES are likely inflated as well. Plus, he's doing this despite an OZ% that is too low to score this well. He's going to come back to earth. Still, he's the best bargain of the bunch, such that even if he settles at more of a 60-point scoring pace that puts him in the running.

Since coming to Vegas, Pacioretty has been shooting more than he has in his entire career, which is saying a lot for a guy who had 300+ SOG twice in the past. This despite not even seeing 18:00 per game in ice time. Plus, despite all the added shots his SH% is on par with his career average, resulting in him being at a goal per every other game for most of this season. In a league with a goals bonus, he's valuable. Still, he's also the second most expensive player, and, at 32, is in the most danger of slowing, despite what we're seeing now.

Tarasenko thrived since Craig Berube became coach and looked very good since returning recently; but with only ten games played in 2019-20 and coming back, at age 29, from a major injury, there are rightful concerns he might not be the same player he once way. He's also the most expensive of the five, that is until RNH signs his new deal.

As for Nugent-Hopkins, he ended last season on a huge tear, but thus far has not parlayed that into a strong 2020-21 despite ample ice time at ES and especially on the power play. What we see in looking at his IPPs is he's not someone controlling the offense but rather a player who is more along for the ride. So long as that ride is as Connor McDavid's winger though, he'll get points regardless of whether he's the driving force behind the offense. Even if he takes less money to stay with the Oilers though, he still figures to be earning $7-8M, which is a lot for a player who's yet to ever get 30 goals in a season.

Like Trocheck, Forsberg his looked reignited. Concerns arise though when looking more closely at the numbers, as his 87.1% overall IPP isn't sustainable considering he's been between 67.4% and 70.3% over his entire career. He's also suddenly shooting the puck considerably more than he ever has, with his rate increase being even more than Pacioretty's. Can that continue?

Each of the five has some lure, but also some caveats; and truth be told, the gap separating them is not very wide. First place I'm giving to Pacioretty due to the magic he's displaying in Vegas and the fact that goals are given extra weight. I'm putting Trocheck second, as even if he regresses his far lower cap hit is key. Third I'll give to Tarasenko, as I believe he can come back from his injury and he's already been shown to be a favorite of coach Berube, plus he's the best pure player of the bunch. Fourth I've got RNH, as either he stays with Edmonton and continues to enjoy his ride, or he goes to another team, where he'll get star treatment and deployment. In last is Forsberg, as he's overachieving and let's not forget no Nashville forward has scored above even 65 points dating all the way back to the 2008-09 season, so he's hurt by the team/system where he plays.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team keep 8 (keep 10 minors, defined as <83 GP for skaters, <51 for goalies) league starting 4C, 4LW, 4RW, and 2G, with 4 Bench and 3 FA adds per week and having categories of G, A, Pts, PPPts, SOG, FOW, +/-, HIT, BLK, W, SV, SV%, GAA, a team that's in first place has the following roster:

C – Aleksander Barkov, Mika Zibanejad
C/RW – Blake Wheeler, Elias Lindholm, Joe Pavelski
C/LW – Brock Nelson, Tomas Hertl, Jack Hughes
C/LW/RW – Nick Foligno
LW – Alex Ovechkin, Brady Tkachuk, Alexis Lafreniere, Kirill Kaprizov
RW – Patrick Kane
LW/RW – Andrei Svechnikov
D – John Carlson, Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Pulock, Mark Giordano, Matt Dumba, Aaron Ekblad, Cale Makar
G – Connor Hellebuyck, Anton Khudobin, Semyon Varlamov

MINORS:
Forwards – Quinton Byfield, Kailer Yamamoto, Nick Robertson, Owen Tippett, Marco Rossi
Defensemen – Evan Bouchard, Nils Lundkvist
Goalies – Ilya Samsonov, Ilya Sorokin

How does the team position itself to have the best eight possible keepers while at the same time not losing its grip on first place?

As mentioned in the thread, COVID will allow Kaprizov to be a "free" keeper due to him not hitting 82 games. The same holds true for Lafreniere. In fact, from the minors only Yamamoto would need to be kept as a regular player due to exceeding the games played limit following 2020-21, and he certainly does not make the grade as a keeper. 

With 96 keepers league-wide, players who would be good enough for this – or another – team to keep are Barkov, Zibanejad (Zibs), Wheeler, Lindholm, Lafreniere, Hughes, Ovechkin, Tkachuk, Kane, Makar, Carlson, Svechnikov, Hamilton, and Hellebuyck, with Ekblad and Varlamov being contenders too, depending on the team. That's 16 total players, or double the eight that can be kept. Thus, the dilemma, and hence it being a good idea to sketch out a plan for how to end up with the eight best keepers possible while still not jeopardizing the team's grip on first place. Not an easy task.

First and foremost, when I see a squad as stacked as this in a 12-team league, I find it difficult not to come to the conclusion of this GM being simply better at fantasy hockey than his or her competitors. As such, it becomes a lot easier to stomach losing talented players in trade or to the draft pool as non-keepers, relying on shrewd drafting and talent from the minors to restock the cupboard with top players.

What I always like to do first is determine if more than one goalie keeper makes sense. Goalies represent two of 14 starters (or 14%) but their categories count as 30% overall, so their stats count twice as much as an average player. That being said, this team is in first with a trio of Hellebuyck, Khudobin and Varlamov, plus has Samsonov and Sorokin in the minors. As such, and given the surplus of skater talent, I don't think it is "necessary" to try and acquire Andrei Vasilevskiy, or even Carter Hart or Jordan Binnington, as although doing so plus keeping Hellebuyck would likely secure this team the win in all goalie categories for years to come, it's not clear whether it would be the "right" move to make. Still, it's a consideration and depends to a large extent on what other teams do in terms of goalie keepers.

The ideal would be to wait to make trades in the offseason, especially deals that would include younger players. In contrast, for players who are older I think the time to trade them is often during the season, as in the offseason GMs look at those who are a bit older and start to worry about being stuck with a player who used to be great but seems like he's starting to fade.

To this end, I'd consider moving Wheeler and/or Carlson now. Both seem to be immune to father time, but that can't last indefinitely. For Carlson, counting this season he'll have three of the 12 instances of a defenseman scoring at a 0.85 points per game pace from age 29 to age 31 dating back to 2000-01. When looking at total instances of defensemen scoring at or above that pace at age 32 or older, and also dating back to 2000-01, we get ten, with just two having occurred since 2011-12. Despite how well Carlson is playing, he does indeed have a shelf life, especially given that he's on a team where the core trio of forwards (Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie) are all 33-35 years old. As I often say, it's called selling high for a reason, and the window left to sell high on Carlson might be closing.

The same holds true for Wheeler. He's at nearly point per game output this season, making it easier to portray him as still going strong. He's 34 years old and things likely can only get worse for him from here, as since 2000-01 there have been a total of 14 instances of players age 35+ who played 70+ games and scored at a point per game level. Compare that to nine who did so just at age 34, and it shows that Wheeler, like Carlson, is entering territory where he risks his output declining at any moment.

I'd give serious thought to trading one or both of those guys now, plus Hughes (owning one of him and Lafreniere should be enough) and Khudobin (his roster spot can be occupied by Samsonov or Sorokin and he could see a lot less time once Ben Bishop returns) to try and get a top young defenseman and/or top forward. I'm talking Auston Matthews, Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak, Mitch Marner, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, and Shea Theodore – guys who can help now but also be cornerstone keepers. Getting Kucherov now might be easiest, since whoever owns him likely would feel better about parting with him while he's not playing and this team could afford to not get stats from Kucherov right away.

Another consideration would be to trade Ovechkin (Ovi) now, as Tkachuk and Svech check a lot of the same boxes plus only twice in the history of the NHL has a player age 36 – which is how old Ovi will be next season – scored 35+ goals two more times in his remaining career, and one of those two was Brett Hull, who, like Ovi, looked like he was unstoppable into his 30s, until he hit a wall. Also trading Ovechkin avoids the risk – albeit small – that he leaves after this season to finish his career is Russia. Moving Ovi before next season has to be a strong consideration.

The older player I'd keep is Kane, who shows no signs of slowing and who is surrounded by a strong young core who'll help him continue to be elite. This also means one of Zibs and Barkov likely will need to be moved, but that should wait until after the season, to give time for Zibs to continue to rebound and/or for Barkov to further flourish. Hamilton also could be moved in the offseason, since, as noted above, more and more I worry his 2019-20, as outstanding as it was, might have been a really extended but not sustainable hot streak. We will know more once 2020-21 is over. Lastly, I'd try to see if Ekblad could garner any interest this offseason, as he's playing well enough to likely tantalize a team to taking him.

All-in-all, my keepers would be Barkov or Zibanejad, Svechnikov, Kane, Tkachuk, Makar, Hellebuyck, plus the two elite guys obtained via the trades made during or after the season and hopefully a good number of draft picks and/or upgrades in minors players. That should create a team which will be tough to beat, especially with this GM's demonstrated track record.

Topic #4– In a one-year league with skater categories of G, A, Pts, PPPts, SOG and +/-, should someone deal their Cam Atkinson and Mikko Rantanen for Patrice Bergeron and Elias Lindholm? What if Rasmus Andersson is added to the Atkinson/Rantanen side and Darnell Nurse is added to the Bergeron/Lindholm side?

As good as Atkinson had looked when this was posted, let's not forget his best ever season saw him produce at a 71-point pace and that was getting a full minute more ice time than what he's averaging thus far for 2020-21. That season his SOG total was well above three per game, but this year is just below that mark for 2020-21. The Columbus power play also is not great in two regards, first being that it's 26th in the NHL in how many power-play opportunities it receives, plus it's not making the most of its limited opportunities, as it's in the 25th in power-play conversion. That explains why Atkinson isn't even getting 2:40 on the power play per game despite taking the ice for 60% of Columbus' power-play minutes. It's marvel he's even getting one PPPt per five games played.

As for Rantanen, he's churning along at just above a point per game pace and racking up PPPts. He's also on a pace to best three SOG per game for the first time in his career. Last season he stood at a 94-point pace after 27 games and still finished in the 80-85 point pace range for the second of his past three seasons, making it seem more and more like his 2018-19 pace of 97 could be an outlier. This is especially true since all his luck metrics and his OZ% for 2020-21 thus far are, if anything, a bit high for him. 

On the other side of the coin is Lindholm, whose floor seems to be Atkinson's ceiling and who is on a team which plays its stars a ton at ES and on the power play. In Bergeron's case, his SOG have spiked again after seeing a bit of a drop, and he's racking up PPPts as always. This side of the deal wins; so if Atkinson's better than envisioned play from a few weeks ago can be utilized to make this trade, it's something to be done for sure.

The same holds true if the trade is reshaped to include Andersson on the Atkinson and Rantanen side and Nurse on the other side. Yes, Andersson seems to be turning into "the guy" on the Calgary blueline; however, his scoring still hasn't spiked, whereas Nurse, despite being a power play afterthought, is humming along at a strong scoring pace, firing lots of pucks on net, and even still picking up a few PPPts here and there. If anything, this sweetens the deal for the Bergeron, Lindholm, Nurse side.

Topic #5 – In a points-only league, which disappointing forward has the best chance to salvage his season – Nikita Gusev or Ryan Johansen?

One key is that as bad as Gusev has played, he also started slow last season before ending 2019-20 as hot as any player, tallying 11 points in his final ten games, with seven of those points coming with the man advantage. This was all in spite of taking the ice for more than 15:30 in only one of those games. His ice times, SOG rates and nearly all metrics are similar this season to last; so if he could do it then, who's to say he couldn't again?

As for Johansen, there's concern that his ice time being below 18:00 per game for the second season in a row plus not scoring despite taking the ice for 60% of Nashville's power-play minutes and starting almost 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Then again, one could look at that, plus Johansen's unsustainably low 38.1% overall IPP and 33.3% IPP on the power play, and figure things have nowhere to go but up for him. On the flip side, two-thirds of his assists have been secondary, meaning he also lucked into a fair number of points.

In Q1 Gusev skated primarily with Pavel Zacha, who, now that the two have been separated, is thriving. In the case of Johansen, he lined up with Filip Forsberg, who likewise has taken off since being separated from Johansen. Essentially both players could be seen by their teams as albatrosses for which is there is not an easy solution. 

One key could be Johansen's $8M price tag through 2024-25, which on the one hand will make it difficult for the team to trade him yet on the other will make it difficult to bury him, hence him still getting very favorable deployment and top line power-play minutes. Gusev, on the other hand, is on the books only for $4.5M and only through this season. A such, the Devils don't have the same impetus to continue to give him chances to shine, as if his play doesn't force the issue they can let him walk at the end of the season and be done with him.

If this was a case of both players getting the same deployment and TOI, I'd trust Gusev to do better. As things stand though, Johansen likely will get better minutes; that, combined with his unsustainably low IPPs for this campaign thus far, make it likely he'll tally more points per game than Gusev between now and the end of the 2020-21 season.

Topic #6 – In a 10 team keep 5 league that counts G, A, STP, SOG, TOI, HIT, BLK, W(x2)+OTL+SHL, SV% and SO and starting 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G and with 4 bench and 2 IR spots, a team is trying to acquire Jack Eichel. If this is its roster, what would be a deal that makes sense and is likely to get accepted?

C – Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes, Mika Zibanejad

LW – Taylor Hall, Andrew Copp, Kevin Fiala

RW – Andrei Svechnikov, Mats Zuccarello, Bryan Rust

D – Rasmus Dahlin, Shea Weber, Alec Martinez, Ty Smith

G – Andrei Vasilevskiy, Braden Holtby

Bench – Evgeni Malkin, David Rittich, Ryan Pulock, Kyle Palmieri

IR – Travis Konecny, Frederik Andersen

The issue with this team is a lot of its "name" players are slumping or were until recently, in Zibs, Malkin and Dahlin. Two weeks ago, it would've been impossible to find any taker for Malkin; however, his recent play suggests that perhaps he just started slowly. Then again, those who were already wary of Malkin due to his injury track record might be even more scared to acquire him out of fear that next season he'll stay colder even longer.

Zibs was not himself for the first chunk of 2020-21 either, whether due to the lingering effects of COVID or just a subpar stretch of play. As such, he's not very tradeable, although perhaps that's a blessing in disguise, since I think he'll turn things around, such that those who sell low will regret having done so. Same goes for Dahlin.

Eichel also happens to be at a low in perceived value. Even still, I think any deal for Eichel might need to include Hughes. Trading Hughes just as it seems he's coming into his own would be a tough pill to swallow; however, in a perfect world Hughes ends up being as good as Eichel, and that's still very much an if. In other words, if one can trade a hyped young player to get a guy who's still in his prime and whose floor is more likely than not close to what the young player's ceiling will be, then make that trade. The issue, of course, is the Eichel owner will likely think the same way, so any deal probably would need to include more than just Hughes.

Ideally Hall could have been added, yet he too is having a poor season versus expectations and despite playing for a new UFA deal. Still though, I think he can be safely dangled; and because his two great seasons were recent enough, and his age is still low enough, hopefully he can be leveraged to help get Eichel.

If those two can't do it, a third piece could be Fiala, Smith, Konecny, or even Andersen. None would be a keeper for this team, yet they might have enough actual/perceived value as to be able to act as a sweetener in a deal for Eichel. Andersen in particular might have lure if the team is lacking in goaltending; and if recent history is any indication, it's best to not to have a goalie after he signs a big UFA deal as Andersen is expected to do this offseason.

If the Eichel owner insists upon receiving MacKinnon (Mack), Svechnikov (Svech) or Vasilevskiy (Vas), tell them they're off the table, as all are cornerstone keepers. Dahlin I'd almost assuredly not trade either, as poor season notwithstanding you don't do what he did as a teen without eventually connecting the dots and becoming a major fantasy producer.

If Eichel is obtained, the team's five keepers could be MacKinnon, Svech, Dahlin, Eichel, and Vas. The issue is that means there's no room for Zibs, who, if he puts things back together, will be better with these categories than Eichel. Notwithstanding the above, my initial approach would be to try and lowball for Eichel and if successful in doing so the keeper situation can be figured out this offseason, perhaps with more trading.

Topic #7 – In a keep 12 league with ten teams and categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPA, SHP, GWG, SOG, S%, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV, SV%, SO and rostering 12F, 6D and 3G, a team that has been very successful is a bit concerned about its aging core. What would be the best 12 keepers from this group of players, keeping in mind also that the team has two picks in Round 1, one in Round 2, and four in Round 3 for next season?

Forwards: Bryan Rust, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Joe Pavelski, Blake Wheeler, Jake Guentzel, JT Miller, Jamie Benn, Vincent Trocheck, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Drake Batherson, Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby
D: Kris Letang, Alexander Romanov, Adam Boqvist, Adam Larsson, Bowen Byram, Alex Edler
G: Carter Hart, Jake Oettinger, Thatcher Demko
IR: Nikita Kucherov

Further to what I said above, the first thing I do is sell high on Trocheck. He has added value in this league due to his multi-cat contributions; but his points will drop and this team should be able to take him, plus perhaps a draft pick or two, and turn that into an elite defenseman, which is an area where this team is a bit thin. That's all I see in terms of ASAP necessary moves.

Guys I'm keeping for sure are Kucherov, Hart, Crosby, Dubois, Miller, Guentzel, Bjorkstrand and Demko. After that there are the young guys on one side in Boqvist, Byram, Romanov, Oettinger and Batherson, and the grey beards on the other in Malkin, Wheeler and Letang.

Let's start with the old guard. Letang is an injury risk and hasn't performed up to expectations in two of the past three seasons, yet at worst he gives you 50-55+ point scoring plus great multi-cat contributions. With Malkin, he's playing well again so make a go at trading him, as I think his offseason value will be low. I covered Wheeler above and think he too is someone you don't want to own come the start of next season; but trading him now cuts out his scoring not to mention his multi-cat value that will be needed by this team without Trocheck in the fold.

I'm keeping Batherson, who has clearly come into his own and is great in multi-cat leagues. Although he's still pretty raw, I like holding Boqvist, as Chicago is rebounding a lot faster than expected and Boqvist is a part of their future and their present. That puts the number of keepers at ten, with the defenseman obtained in the Trocheck trade making it 11.

As for goalies, they count for over 40% of scoring despite occupying 14% of roster space, so I think a spot needs to be kept for Demko, who's looking superb. That means, assuming Malkin is moved during the season, neither Letang nor Wheeler would be kept, which is a lot of talent to lose. Perhaps this can be reassessed after the season to see if one of them takes the place of Bjorkstrand or Dubois.

Topic #8 – In a 10 team keep 5 H2H league with categories of G, A, STP, SOG, TOI, HIT, BLK, (Winx2+OTL+SHL), SV% and SO and where rosters include 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G and 4 Bench, is Rasmus Dahlin a keeper on the team shown below?

C – Nathan MacKinnon, Mika Zibanejad, Evgeni Malkin

LW – Jack Hughes, Roope Hintz, Kevin Fiala

RW – Andrei Svechnikov, Bryan Rust, Travis Konecny

D – Rasmus Dahlin, Shea Weber, Alec Martinez, Zach Werenski

G – Andrei Vasilevskiy, Frederik Andersen

Bench – Martin Necas, Rickard Rakell, Taylor Hall, Kaapo Kahkonen

Right off the bat there are three keeper locks in Mack, Vas and Svech. If Dahlin and Zibs were playing as they were last season, there'd be the five. As it stands they're performing below well expectations. Still though, I think they might be the picks.

Like Dahlin and Zibs, Malkin was playing below par; and although he's seemingly reinvigorated I fear with each season there will be more and more rust so his time as a keeper in this format is likely over. Fiala, Hintz, Necas and Konecny are promising but safe redrafts. The toughest call is Hughes. He has a mere eight points in his last 21 games despite a much higher IPP overall and a 75% IPP on the power play. The explanation is he's not driving offense, and that's a concern.

What I'd do is dangle Andersen and either Dahlin and Hughes as trade bait now and plan to keep the player I get in return, plus Zibs. Or if a trade can't happen, keep Dahlin over Hughes, as you don't do what he did as a teen then fail to pan out.

This plan makes sense because losing Andersen now shouldn't be a problem in that Vas is so great chances are Vas plus a waiver wire addition will be enough to keep this team in contention with respect to goalie categories. Andersen is still good enough to likely represent an improvement such that a team will part with a keepable asset in exchange for him, plus either Dahlin or Hughes.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of the mailbag has room for a few more questions, so if you want my opinion on specific players or your teams, go ahead and ask away. To get your question(s) to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.