Geek of the Week: Pretty Fly (For a Nikolaj)

Scott Royce

2021-03-21

Danish-born winger Nikolaj Ehlers was primed to be a hockey player from a young age. He moved to Switzerland at a young age and began playing and fine-tuning his game under his father Heinz. During his time in Switzerland, his team played overseas in the Quebec International Pee-Wee tournament, which was surely a great chance for him to get seen by scouts. He would eventually join EHC Biel, a team in the Swiss National League. His play in Switzerland clearly got him noticed, as he was selected sixth overall by the Halifax Mooseheads in the 2013 CHL Import Draft. 

Ehlers joined the Mooseheads for the 2013-14 season, one year removed from Halifax capturing a Memorial Cup, led by Nathan MacKinnon. While MacKinnon had left for the NHL, the Mooseheads still featured a strong team with the likes of Jonathan Drouin and Timo Meier leading the charge. Ehlers came in and hit the ground running. He showed his offense prowess posting 49 goals and 55 assists for 104 points. The success of his first year in the CHL definitely got him noticed.

In the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, Ehlers went ninth overall to the Winnipeg Jets. Before joining his new club, he would play one more season in Halifax. In only 51 games, he would post 101 points, just under a two-point-per-game pace. With aspirations to get back to the Memorial Cup, the team fought their way to the second round of the playoffs. They almost pulled off a massive upset, but eventually fell in seven games to the Moncton Wildcats. Ehlers put up an eye-popping 31 points in just 14 games that postseason.

In the fall of 2015, Ehlers would attend Jets training camp in attempts to make the team. Coming off his second straight year of domination in junior, there was a sense that there wasn't much left for him to accomplish in Halifax. There was the option to send him to their AHL-affiliate Manitoba Moose, but luckily for Ehlers he did enough to stick with the team. In his rookie season, Ehlers looked very average at times, but did show flashes of what he was capable of. Through 72 games, he posted 15 goals and 23 assists. His shooting percentage was only 9% that season, which to this day stands to be the lowest of his career. 

In his sophomore season, Ehlers began to show fans and fantasy hockey owners alike his incredible appeal and potential. He played a full 82-game slate and contributed 25 goals and 39 helpers which would mark the first time he'd break the 60-point plateau in his career. His shooting percentage was up to 12.3%, which happens to be his career average. He shot on average 2.5 shots a game which is a respectable total, but fantasy owners would like to see that number closer to three per game. Ehlers enjoyed a 48.8 % deployment on the power play which is the most time he's gotten on the man advantage thus far in his career. Surprisingly it only yielded him 11 points and while that's respectable, there was certainly room for more. 

Prior to the start of the 2017-18, the Jets and Ehlers came to terms on a seven-year extension worth $42 million. Clearly Jets' GM Kevin Cheveldayoff was impressed with what he had seen in the first two seasons of Ehlers' career and was quick to make the move to lock him up long-term. Now part of Winnipeg's core moving forward, Ehlers was poised to make his mark on the ice. He enjoyed a career-high 29 goal season, and with 31 assists he was able to reach the 60-point mark for this second straight year. His 231 shots was also a personal best. Through his first three seasons, his offensive statistics were all on a steady incline and Ehlers was trending in the right direction.

Unfortunately, 2018-19 was a step back for Ehlers. The catalyst for his rough season likely can be attributed to his first major injury in the pros. After playing full 82 game slates in back-to-back seasons, Ehlers suffered a separated shoulder after taking an awkward hit on January 4 versus the Pittsburgh Penguins. He would miss about seven weeks, and even after his return he wasn't quite the same player. He would have had better point totals had he stayed healthy, but with his 37 points in 62 contests, he still only averaged 0.6 points per game. This number stands as the second worst of his career thus far, only slightly beating out his rookie season.

2019-20 marked a return to form, much to everyone's relief. In the coronavirus shortened season, Ehlers put up 25 goals and 33 assists in 71 games. Had the schedule not been cut short, it was likely Ehlers would have enjoyed some new career highs. He had already eclipsed the 200-shot mark and was averaging 2.9 shots per game. What's even more impressive about his performance in 2019 was the fact that he had next to no boost from playing on the power play. While that's ideally not what fantasy owners like to hear, you can certainly draw positives from his lack of special teams time. Ehlers did most of his damage at even strength, and that's a good sign his game is looking strong. 

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In the current 2020-21 campaign, Ehlers continues to see an uptick in his production. Through 30 games, Ehlers has put up 31 points which is just over a point-per-game average. In a normal 82-game season, that would be an 85-point pace. Luckily for Ehlers owners, his power play deployment is up to just under 33 percent. Ehlers has found some good chemistry on the second line with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kyle Connor. With Patrik Laine no longer in the picture, there's more opportunity for Ehlers.

Ehlers' shot rate continues to creep up, which is a great sign. I do, however, have a couple minor red flags to point out. He has a 62.5% secondary assist rate, which is really high and basically suggests his assist numbers are somewhat inflated. Additionally, his shooting percentage is up to 16.5%, which is great, however it's a bit higher than what you're used to seeing out of him. It's a little hard to say if this means his goal rate is a little abnormally higher, or if he is just developing into a more lethal shooter in the league. 

Ehlers has dual-wing eligibility and is certainly trending towards becoming a reliable 65–70-point player on a yearly basis. He shoots at a great rate that will help you with your shots on goal category. One knock on him is that he hasn't been able to stick with the first power-play unit, so he is missing out on a lot of offensive opportunities there, and it will also hurt your fantasy team a bit since he isn't racking up power-play points for you. I don't consider him a physical force on the ice, but he isn't afraid to play with a bit of grit either. He will net you a few hits a week, but not much more. Overall, the pros definitely outweigh the cons, and I think this great Dane is definitely worth rostering in all leagues. I still don't think we have seen the best from this 24-year-old yet, so keep an eye on him going forward.

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