Ramblings – Crosby’s long-term outlook, Robertson’s rising value, McDavid to 150 – and more (Mar 22)

Dobber

2021-03-22

For the 13th time in the last 14 years, I released the annual Midseason Guide. Released 10 days ago – this is still pretty relevant, and should be for another week or so. Complete with projections, line combinations, goaltender analysis, peripherals, NCAA and Euro free agents. And much more. Pick it up here.

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Sidney Crosby has 13 points in his last 10 games. Now that he's 33, I am finding that his owners are bailing on him in keeper leagues. Generally speaking, I think owners bail on star players at age 32 or 33, figuring that they'll fall off a cliff soon and they don't want to be stuck with him. They don't want to be left standing with a chair when the music stops. Let me assure you – Crosby will continue to post numbers greater than a point-per-game next season, the one after that, and the one after that. He's a generational player and for those players you can knock four years off their age and treat them accordingly. Under my 'generational-player formula' that I just made up right now, Crosby is 29. A deal can be had in your dynasty league. You can get a reliable, productive player for much cheaper than he should be. The only caveat is that you will have trouble getting value for him in a trade if you decide to move in him next year or in the future. So when you get him, just keep in mind that you are getting a guy who will be on your team for good – and only truly tradeable at trade deadlines when owners are desperate and ready to meet your price.

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Nikita Gusev was given four games by Coach Lindy Ruff. But three of those games he saw about 10 minutes each. On Saturday he was finally given 15:30, with four minutes of PP time and was unable to get anything going. So Sunday he was again made a healthy scratch. It's not looking for the 28-year-old, who would have a nice contract and plenty of playing time waiting for him at home in Russia next season. I acquired him last week when his price was rock bottom, so I hope he stays. As a UFA, maybe another team will give him the right opportunity. And maybe the Devils will trade him at the deadline (April 12). But my hopes are very low. Nico Hischier is expected back on April 6, so that just makes it even harder to get into the lineup and get any PP time.

Sami Vatanen has points in three of his last four games, and has 10 SOG in that span, as well as six BLKS. Still not getting any PP time though. Damon Severson (2:14), PK Subban (2:11) and Ty Smith (1:55) got the PP time for New Jersey.

Jack Hughes has points in just four of his last 16 games.

Mackenzie Blackwood has back-to-back wins and Quality Starts. Sandwiched between those starts was a UBI that cost him two games. Those Quality Starts stopped a personal six-game losing skid that included four RBS (Really Bad Starts). Blackwood has been seriously up and down this season. Of his 16 games, eight have been QS and four have been RBS, leaving just four games that would be considered 'normal'. He's either been great or terrible.

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New Jersey has received over half of its points this season from players age 23 or younger (54.0%; 107 of 198) – no other team has a rate of 40% or higher in 2020-21.

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Sorry to keep going on about this, but it is something I'm tracking. I do only have one player in one of my leagues involved, and that's Collin Delia – and he's the No.5 goalie on my team so I don't really have much skin the game. More of a curiosity really. But since February 19:
Kevin Lankinen: 3-5-1, 3.64, 0.893

Malcolm Subban: 2-3-0, 3.55, 0.892

But Collin Delia gets two starts early on – against the great Tampa team and the almost equally great Florida team – before Chicago started getting any offense going…but he's never seen again. Hockey politics, I tell ya. The team gave up 73 shots on goal in those two games, he gives up five goals in each at a time when the other two goalies also gave up five goals in their first games. But Delia is written off. Thrown into the trunk of a car and 'disappeared'. I hate when my hunches don't pay off for reasons that are inexplicable. Just dumb luck. (He was my pick in the summer to be Chicago's goalie this year, for those who just joined us). No more chances? Really?

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I know you don't believe that Connor McDavid will ever get 150 points in a season. In fact, you'd put money on it and feel comfortable that you'll win. But he really is just getting better and better. Check out his points-per-game average each year of his career:

2015-16: 1.07

2016-17: 1.22

2017-18: 1.32

2018-19: 1.49

2019-20: 1.52

2020-21: 1.76

It's still on the rise. The above number is a 145-point pace. He's 24 and still two years from his prime window. And according to the aforementioned generational-superstar age-adjustment rule that I made up earlier, he should be treated like he's 20! I calling it right now – if McDavid plays 80 games in a season before he turns 30, then he will top 150 points. I said it right here – mark this page down and make fun of me or congratulate me later.

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Anthony Duclair was a minus-2 in Sunday's game and was bumped off the big line and plunked onto the fourth line. Mason Marchment went up to the Aleksander Barkov line with Carter Verhaeghe. So in the third period, Barkov pretty much played with two players who last year we would have bet would be career AHLers.

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Verhaeghe, by the way, scored in the game and he has eight points in his last seven contests.

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Alex Killorn has 12 points in his last 11 games. He holds the winning lottery ticket right now (an even better one than the one Verhaeghe holds) because he plays with Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point. Since getting that top-line spot for pretty much last year and this one, Killorn has held steady at 0.71 points per game (58 or 59 points). That's over 99 games, so it's pretty set.

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Only two wins to show for it, but Cal Petersen has posted four consecutive Quality Starts. In 17 games overall, he has a SV% of 0.926. That embarrasses Jonathan Quick who is at 0.897 in 13 games.

Anze Kopitar has 16 points in his last 11 games. Now 33, he is on a points-per-game pace (1.23) that is easily a career high (1.12). With a shortened season, it won't be completely out of the realm of possibility that he ends up with career bests there. Just 26 more games to get 26 points, which would be enough to do it. Whatever you think of Kopitar, you can't argue that he doesn't have 26 points in 26 games in him.

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Marc-Andre Fleury has been one of the best goalies in the NHL this year, if not the best, putting up ridiculous numbers (currently 16-6-4, 1.93 and 0.931). The best of his career, in fact. But now Robin Lehner is around and I think that messes with his head. I think that messes with any goalie's head. Lehner is coming off a Quality Start, while Fleury lost Sunday and gave up four goals the game before that. In fantasy hockey, when you have a hot player (at any position), the last thing you want is for something to rock the boat.

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Eeli Tolvanen saw 17:36 of ice time Sunday, the second most of his career (though it was an OT game). He rewarded the team with the game-tying goal and a career-high three points. The rookie has eight points in his last nine games.  He played with Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg – in Victor Arvidsson's usual spot. That's bad news for Arvidsson owners because obviously Tolvanen did much, much better there. Arvidsson was buried on a line with Calle Jarnkrok and Rem Pitlick (arguably Nashville's worst line of the game).

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Jason Robertson had to battle to get into the lineup. Imagine if Rick Bowness still stubbornly kept him out? Sometimes prospects are big-time NHL-ready in spite of what the team plans for them. In the last 21 games, here are Dallas' leading scorers:

  1. Jason Robertson 17 points
  2. Joe Pavelski 14
  3. Roope Hintz 11 (in 14 games)
  4. Jamie Benn 10
  5. Miro Heiskanen 10

Robertson is this team's best and leading scorer and it's not even close. He saw a career-high 22:09 of ice time Sunday. No longer ask – what line is he on? Instead, you ask – who gets to play on his line?

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Joe Pavelski had 15 points in the first nine games of the season. Anyone who went out and grabbed him at that point has to feel a little sheepish today. The 36-year-old has 13 points in 19 games since. Overall, still very solid numbers and with the shortened season they will end up exceeding expectations even if he gets a point every two games the rest of the way (would give him 42 points).

Both Ben Bishop and Tyler Seguin are still three to five weeks away from a return, so call it mid to late April.

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Tonight, Ilya Sorokin is looking for his eighth consecutive win. He has already set a franchise record for rookie goaltenders with seven in a row.

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See you next Monday.

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