Wild West: Fantasy MVPs through the First Half

Grant Campbell

2021-03-22

Weekly Western Leaders (to March 21st, 2021) – in bold leads the NHL

Goals – 21Connor McDavid – Edmonton (21Auston Matthews)

Assists – 39Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Points – 60Connor McDavid – Edmonton

PPP – 23Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Shots on Goal – 136 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton (141Brady Tkachuk)

Shooting % (min 30 SOG) – 22.0 – Calle Jarnkrok – Nashville (23.5Mathieu Joseph)

PIM – 42 – Lawson Crouse – Arizona (53 – Trent Frederic)

Best plus/minus – plus 23 – Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton (plus 24 – Joel Edmundson)

Worst plus/minus – minus 16 – Jakob Silfverberg, Jacob Larsson – Anaheim (minus 28Rasmus Dahlin)

Hits – 139 – Jani Hakanpaa – Anaheim (143Brady Tkachuk)

Blocked shots – 96Adam Larsson – Edmonton

FOW – 425 – Ryan O’Reilly – St. Louis

FOL – 336Bo Horvat – Vancouver

FO% (min 150 FO) – 60.7 – Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare – Colorado (63.8 Luke Glendening)

Giveaways – 44 – Nate Schmidt – Vancouver (50 Thomas Chabot)

Takeaways – 31Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton, Mark Stone – Vegas

Highest Skater GAR (goals above replacement) – 16.1Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Lowest Skater GAR – minus 6.6Phil Kessel – Arizona

Highest xGAR (expected goals above replacement) – 16.1Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Lowest xGAR – minus 7.3Josh Morrissey – Winnipeg

Highest CF% (min 18 GP) – 63.9Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado

Lowest CF% (min 18 GP) – 35.4Devin Shore – Edmonton

Highest PDO (min 18 GP) – 107.4 – Marcus Foligno – Minnesota (110.9Jared McCann)

Lowest PDO (min 18 GP) – 92.5 – Rocco Grimaldi – Nashville (90.2Nikita Gusev)

Goalie wins – 18 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado (20Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Save percentage (min 12 starts) – 93.1 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (93.3Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Quality starts – 17Philipp Grubauer – Colorado

Quality start % (min 12 starts) – 68.8 – Mike Smith – Edmonton  (76.9 – Chris Driedger)

Highest Goalie GAR – 22.6 – Thatcher Demko – Vancouver (24.5Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Lowest Goalie GAR – minus 8.1 – Ryan Miller – Anaheim (minus 17.0Carter Hart)

Shutouts – 5Philipp Grubauer – Colorado

Brennan Des looked at the Eastern MVPs last week, so I thought we should look at the Western MVPs this week. As per the East, we will be focusing on the player from each team that has outperformed expectations after the first half.

Anaheim – Maxime Comtois

After playing only 29 games last season with five goals and six assists which was 0.31 pts/game, Comtois increased his production to 0.68 pts/game after 28 games with nine goals and 10 assists and led the team in goals and co-led in points at the midway point. His number of hits was still at just under two per game similar to last season and his blocked shots increased. The bad news is that Trevor Zegras’ minutes have started to increase and Comtois have decreased. In his six games since March 10th, Comtois had no points, only five SOG, and was minus six. The first-half MVP will be hard-pressed to be the overall MVP at the season’s end.

Arizona – Conor Garland/ Jakob Chychrun

I was unable to choose between Garland and Chychrun as both had impressive first halves. Garland had eight goals and 14 assists after 28 games, which was a 44-point pace and Chychrun had seven goals and 12 assists, good for a 14 goal, 38 point pace.

Garland had seen his ice time increase to almost 18 minutes per night compared to about 14 last season with about a minute of that increase on the power play. Garland became a focal point of the offense and on most nights drove us much play if not more than Clayton Keller.

Chychrun has seen his SOG/game rate increase for the fifth year in a row to 2.6/game and he has maintained his hits and increased his blocked shots from 1.51/game to 1.77. Another key improvement in Chychrun's production is his power playtime is 55.9 percent up from 41.0 last season.

Calgary – Elias Lindholm

Not only has Lindholm led the Flames in scoring after 32 games with eight goals and 20 assists, but he has logged 20:44 of ice time per night while playing on the first unit of the power play and penalty killing over 50 percent of the time. He might not be able to maintain his current status, as his PDO is high at 105.7 and his secondary assists are a little high at 60.0 percent. I think the consensus at the start of the season is that in most pools, Lindholm would have been picked behind Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau and perhaps Sean Monahan.

Chicago – Alex Debrincat

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I don't think there is any doubt that Patrick Kane is the true MVP for the Blackhawks in the first half of the season, but he is where he was expected to be with 42 points in 32 games (Dobber had him forecast at 67 points in 55 games in the Pre-season Guide).

Alex Debrincat had 18 goals and 45 points in 70 games last season and while many thought he would be much improved this season I'm not sure many thought he would have 16 goals and 31 points in his first 28 games which are on pace for a 32-goal season in 56 games. He has also slightly increased his physicality to reach a hit per game to this point, which might be a result of being on the ice almost three minutes more per game.

Colorado – Samuel Girard

As good as Philipp Grubauer has been with 18 wins in 25 games, a GAA of 1.79 and a save percentage of 92.9, Samuel Girard in my opinion has exceeded expectations just a little bit more.

With five goals and 22 points in his first 27 games, Girard is on pace for 10 goals and 44 points in 56 games this season, where most people had him between 25-30. Most teams that have two very offensive-minded defensemen need to sacrifice the offense of one to feed the other, but Girard has made the most of his opportunities when Makar has been hurt but he has also produced even with Makar in the lineup. With Makar missing 10 games, Girard stepped up well and had three goals and 10 points, while with Makar in the lineup he still produced with two goals and 12 points in 17 games. He's a great insurance plan.

Dallas – Joe Pavelski

Even though he has predictably slowed down after his torrid start of seven goals and 15 points in his first seven games, with 13 points in his past 20, Pavelski has still outdone any of the most optimistic prognostications for what he would do this season at the age of 36.

He is on pace for 28 goals and 28 assists in 56 games and even if he slows down he has been impressive. He has got his ice time back to over 19 minutes per game and his shooting percentage is high at 21.5, but somewhat sustainable for him.

If healthy more, Roope Hintz has emerged as an offensive threat but needs more games to prove it.

Edmonton – Connor McDavid

We can look at Tyson Barrie and Darnell Nurse as being the MVPs of the Oilers to this point, but as impressive as they have been, Connor McDavid has surpassed expectations for what he has done and deserves to be the true MVP and the MVP for value surpassed so far.

There is a good chance if you own McDavid in one of your pools, that you are doing fairly well and there is also a fairly good chance that you picked him first overall. After 34 games he has 60 points which ironically is on pace for 99 points in 56 games. A new aspect to his game is the fact that with 41 hits in 34 games, he surpassed his career-high of 39 hits in game 32 and his shots per game which has consistently been between 3.1 and 3.3 the past four seasons has increased to 4.0. He's still improving, which is scary for the opposition.

Los Angeles – Drew Doughty

In his first 28 games, this season Drew Doughty had seven goals and 24 points which is a 14 goal and 48 point pace in 56 games. Doughty's career-high is 14 goals in 82 games and it has been three seasons since he had more than 45 points. The resurgence is worthy of him being the MVP even with Anze Kopitar's impressive first half as well.

Doughty is riding a high shooting percentage (14.0) and secondary assist rate (66.7), so it is unlikely that he maintains 14 goals or 48 points, but it's nice to see an improvement over his past two seasons.

Minnesota – Kirill Kaprizov

Honorable mentions to Joel Eriksson Ek who is on pace for 22 goals, Jordan Greenway 39 points and Jonas Brodin 10 goals and 28 points, but Kirill Kaprizov is my MVP for the first half. Expectations were pretty high for Kaprizov as he was the consensus choice for the Calder at the start of the year. He has come in as a 24-year old rookie and exceeded almost everything expected of him and is on pace for 20 goals and 50 points in 56 games. Something to keep in mind is that he has only two of his 25 points on the power play and we should see some improvement in the second half.

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Nashville – Filip Forsberg

I'm not sure there are any honorable mentions on this team and that speaks volumes to the direction the Predators are heading. Forsberg has been one of the only bright lights this season as he has seen his points per game rise to 0.88 which is the second-highest in his seven seasons. He is on pace for 19 goals and 49 points in 56 games which might double the points output of the next Predator on the list by season’s end.

San Jose – Evander Kane

In his 12th NHL season, Evander Kane is having his best season after the first half with 0.90 pts/game. Prorated to an 82 game schedule his 12 goals and 26 points in 29 games would be 34 goals and 40 assists for 74 points. His career highs are 30 goals and 57 points, which both would be in jeopardy if the schedule was more than 56 games. Kane has reduced his hitting by quite a bit to only 1.52 hits/game after posting 2.22 his first two seasons with the Sharks.

Honorable mention to Logan Couture who has 13 goals after 29 games after only 16 goals last season in an injury-plagued 52 games.

St. Louis – Jordan Kyrou

Solely based on expectation versus reality I have to give the MVP to Jordan Kyrou over David Perron although you could make an argument for either.

Kyrou came into this season with 44 NHL games and five goals and 12 points. There were expectations that he would make the roster and play as a regular, but I don't think anyone thought he would have 10 goals and 24 points after his first 31 games. He is on pace for 18 goals and 25 assists in 56 games and he has done it with only three power-play points, so there is some room for improvement. He has four points in the seven games that Vladimir Tarasenko has been back in the lineup so this might be something to monitor along with his ice time.

David Perron has 33 points after 31 games, which would see him with 58 points after 56 games and would be a career-best 1.06 pts/game. Perron has eight points in the seven games Tarasenko has been back in the lineup.

Vancouver – Thatcher Demko

Thatcher Demko was projected to start maybe 40 to 50 percent of the games with Braden Holtby brought in to replace Jakob Markstrom. That script was followed for the first 12 games of the season where Demko started six games and Holtby started six. The next 22 games saw that go out the window as Demko started 17 of those games where Demko had nine wins, 11 quality starts and a save percentage of 92.4. The current split is 66/34 after 35 games in favor of Demko and it will more than likely remain that way.

Honorable mention to Brock Boeser who has 16 goals and 32 points after 35 games which are on pace for 26 goals and 52 points in 56 games. He has the velocity and confidence in his shot back again after missing it for the second half of last season.

Vegas – Shea Theodore

I can only speak for myself, but I didn't think that Shea Theodore would be able to maintain his 0.65 pts/game from last season with the arrival of Alex Pietrangelo. He has not only maintained it but has improved it to 0.88/game in his first 26 games with five goals and 23 points. Pietrangelo has missed 10 games where Theodore has prospered with two goals and 10 points, but he has done well with Pietrangelo in the lineup with three goals and 13 points in 16 games. Theodore is on pace for 10 goals and 50 points in 56 games.

Honorable mention to Alex Tuch who had a disappointing last season with only eight goals and 17 points in 42 games. This season he has 13 goals and 20 points in 28 games which is a 40 point pace in 56 games.

Winnipeg – Nikolaj Ehlers

There were a few people that were very high on Nikolaj Ehlers before the season (Dobber had him projected at 47 points in the pre-season Guide), but the consensus would not have him at his current point production of 1.06 pts/game and 15 goals and 33 points after 31 games. His SOG rate is at 3.2/game which would be career-high, and he is still managing his production with only 33.2 percent of power playtime. His current pace is 27 goals and 33 assists in 56 games.

Neal Pionk is an honorable mention as he has exceeded expectations two seasons in a row. With 23 points in his first 31 games, he is on pace for 41 points in 56 games.

With every MVP of the first half, there would be one or two players that have done the opposite on each of these teams. Perhaps we will look at them next week and see if there is hope for a turnaround in the second half.

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions please message me or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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