Looking Ahead: Another King Week

Adam Daly-Frey

2021-04-02

All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.

Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to Twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, March 31.

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Jeff Carter, W, Los Angeles Kings (Available in 90 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) â€“ After recommending Alex Iafallo last week, it's Iafallo's teammate's turn to get recommended – although if Iafallo is available, he should be the pickup over Carter – as the Kings' schedule is just too juicy to pass up, and Carter has a lot of plug-n-play value over the next two weeks.

On the season, Carter's line of 6G-10A isn't much to look at, but Carter remains a volume shooter who's just having an off-year in terms of shooting percentage; Carter's sitting at 99 shots in 34 games (2.9 per game) but is connecting on just 6.1 percent of those, a huge drop from his career average of 11.1 percent and the lowest he's ever been in his career. Carter's no longer a top-line winger at this point in his career, which is actually a plus for his potential scoring, as he'll avoid the tough matchups that come with playing alongside Anze Kopitar. Although he's only picked up a goal and assist in his past five games, he's also thrown 15 pucks on net and in peripheral leagues that has value.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Calvin Petersen, G, Los Angeles Kings (Available in 75 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) â€“ Consistently the better goalie on the Kings since entering the league – he's put up seasons of .924, .922 and currently .925 save percentages while his net-mate Jonathan Quick put up .888, .904 and .894 – Petersen's a strong add for the rest of the season and a huge piece in keeper leagues if he's available.

After playing only 11 games and eight games the past two seasons, Petersen's up to 19 games played this year (18 starts) and although he only has seven wins, Petersen is finally outpacing Quick in starts. From a fancy-stats perspective, Petersen sits tenth in the league in Goals Saved Above Average per 60 (min. 500 minutes at 5v5), and is tied for ninth in the league in 5v5 save percentage at 0.932; Petersen has also been dynamite on the penalty kill, sitting third in the league in GSAA per 60.

In leagues that only care about wins, Petersen sees a dip in value given he's still in a 60/40 timeshare in net, but any league that tracks extra goalie categories like save percentage and shutouts gives Petersen extra value.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Dominik Kubalik, W, Chicago Blackhawks (Rostered in 80 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) â€“ After exploding for 30 goals in his rookie season in 68 games, Kubalik has 11 goals in 37 games and looks like the dynamic scorer everyone expected coming into the year. Unfortunately, Kubalik is in the worst position to succeed in Chicago and has to overcome his linemates and ice time to score, and that's a big concern over the next two weeks given how bad the Blackhawks' schedule is (see below.)

Kubalik is currently playing second/third-line tweener minutes with Brandon Hagel and David Kampf, and is stuck on the second power-play unit. With Dylan Strome and Kirby Dach both returning – and Strome sliding on the wing – that's led to less ice time for Kubalik recently. Kubalik's season average of 15:17 was hit only twice in the past five games, and for a player rostered at 80 percent, that's already not a lot of ice time per game. Kubalik is still producing at a fine rate, but the combination of his ice time sliding, his shooting percentage sitting at half of last season's and the Blackhawks' upcoming schedule means Kubalik should struggle through the first half of April.

The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Mike Hoffman, W, St. Louis Blues (Rostered in 64 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) â€“ Heading into the season, Hoffman got a lot of love as a player who could put up 25-30 goals on a relatively cheap contract in St. Louis, but that just hasn't panned out at all. Hoffman has only eight goals and 12 assists on the year, and that's with shooting close to his career average (11.0 this year vs. 11.8 career.)

Hoffman was supposed to be a top-line replacement for Vladimir Tarasenko both at 5v5 and on what should've been a strong power play, but instead Hoffman has been playing on the third line, rotating through centers due to injuries on the Blues. Hoffman is playing below 15:30 per game – the lowest he's had since 2014-15 – and since he's not a contributor in peripheral categories, he has next-to-no value when his points slow down. Hoffman can be dropped in leagues that track peripherals and in shallow points-only leagues.

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Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs from April 2 to April 14

Important note: this was written BEFORE the Vancouver games got officially postponed. They won't play again until at least April 8 and are an obvious Leave 'Em team – they lose three games in the first half of the period and currently are scheduled for only four games. Edmonton and Winnipeg lose two games respectively.

Los Angeles – The Kings manage to smash eight games into this portion of the schedule – one more than the normal amount in a "normal" year – and while their matchups aren't perfect, targeting Kings players makes a lot of sense just on volume. The Kings will play home games against the Sharks, Coyotes and Golden Knights (two each) as well as two games in San Jose.

Anaheim – Anaheim's schedule is very similar to their Californian counterparts, seeing the Coyotes twice at home and the Sharks three times (all on the road), but the difference is that Anaheim's remaining two games come against Colorado. With Arizona's struggles in net and San Jose's struggles in general, this might be the only time Anaheim players can be trusted in fantasy.

New Jersey – Although they've struggled to score – they've only scored four or more goals in seven games so far – the Devils have a good upcoming schedule and are basically free adds on Yahoo, as no player is rostered higher than 42 percent. New Jersey will play only one road game this period (against Buffalo), with the six home games coming against Washington (twice), Pittsburgh (twice), Buffalo and the Rangers.

Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Chicago – The Blackhawks only play five games this period, and outside of one game against the Predators, they're tough matchups: two games at home to Dallas, and two games in Columbus against the Blue Jackets. Chicago's been a pleasant surprise in terms of actual hockey – they're in a playoff position! – but aren't great for fantasy outside of Patrick Kane, as they've only scored two goals or less in a whopping 18 games so far.

NY Islanders – One of the bonuses for the Islanders this period is that all five of their games come at home, but the fact that there are only five games make the Islanders a big Leave 'Em team. The Islanders will play the Flyers and Rangers twice each with the remaining game coming against the Capitals, and the first game against the Rangers is the back-end of a back-to-back.

Florida – Littered with injuries, the Cats are still without Aleksander Barkov and Patric Hornqvist and will be without Aaron Ekblad for the season, so expectations for fantasy production should be muted anyway but their schedule does them no favours: six games, four of which come on the road in Carolina and Dallas (twice each) and the other two games coming against Columbus at home. Playing someone like Carter Verhaeghe or Keith Yandle is probably fine, but they're a banged-up team who should have very low expectations.

April 2 to April 8
Best Bets
MTL 4.4575 – Away TOR – Home OTT EDM WPG
LAK 4.41 – Home SJS SJS ARI ARI
CGY 4.41 – Away EDM – Home TOR TOR VAN
NJD 4.405 – Away BUF- Home WSH WSH BUF
WPG 4.3575 – Away MTL- Home TOR VAN VAN
Steer Clear
OTT 2.1 – Away MTL – Home EDM
MIN 2.84 – Away VGK – Home COL COL
VGK 2.865 – Away STL STL – Home MIN
CHI 2.8875 – Away NSH – Home DAL DAL
PIT 2.8975 – Away BOS NYR NYR- Home
April 3 to April 9
Best Bets
MTL 4.4575 – Away TOR – Home OTT EDM WPG
BUF 4.4575 – Away NJD – Home NYR NJD WSH
EDM 4.38 – Away MTL OTT OTT- Home VAN
NYI 4.3575 – Away – Home PHI WSH PHI NYR
NJD 4.3525 – Away BUF – Home WSH BUF PIT
Steer Clear
CHI 2.8875 – Away NSH – Home DAL DAL
TOR 3.0025 – Away CGY CGY – Home MTL
ANH 3.03 – Away SJS – Home ARI COL
OTT 3.2025 – Away MTL – Home EDM EDM
WPG 3.2025 – Away MTL – Home VAN VAN
April 4 to April 10
Best Bets
CAR 4.515 – – Home DAL FLA FLA DET
CGY 4.515 – Home TOR TOR VAN VAN
STL 4.41 – Away – Home VGK VGK MIN MIN
NJD 4.3525 – Away BUF – Home WSH BUF PIT
TOR 4.2625 – Away CGY CGY – Home MTL OTT
Steer Clear
VGK 2.655 – Away STL STL – Home ARI
CHI 2.745 – Away CBJ- Home DAL DAL
NYR 3.0025 – Away NYI – Home PIT PIT
ANH 3.03 – Away SJS – Home ARI COL
PIT 3.135 – Away NYR NYR NJD – Home
April 5 to April 11
Best Bets
BOS 5.05 – Away PHI WSH PHI – Home PHI WSH
PHI 4.65 – Away BOS NYI – Home BOS BOS BUF
NYI 4.4625 – Away – Home WSH PHI NYR NYR
STL 4.41 – Away – Home VGK VGK MIN MIN
NJD 4.3 – Away BUF – Home BUF PIT PIT
Steer Clear
FLA 2.66 – Away CAR CAR DAL – Home
TBL 2.7075 – Away CBJ CBJ NSH – Home
CHI 2.745 – Away CBJ – Home DAL DAL
VAN 2.85 – Away WPG CGY CGY – Home
ANH 3.03 – Away SJS – Home COL COL
April 6 to April 12
Best Bets
CAR 4.83 – – Home FLA FLA DET DET
NYI 4.4625 – Away – Home WSH PHI NYR NYR
STL 4.405 – Away MIN- Home VGK MIN MIN
SJS 4.725 – Home ANH LAK LAK ANH
CBJ 4.305 – Away – Home TBL TBL CHI CHI
Steer Clear
CGY 2.205 – Away – Home VAN VAN
FLA 2.66 – Away CAR CAR DAL – Home
TBL 2.7075 – Away CBJ CBJ NSH – Home
TOR 3.36 – Away MTL- Home MTL OTT
EDM 3.3825 – Away OTT OTT – Home VAN
April 7 to April 13
Best Bets
TOR 4.41 – Away MTL – Home MTL OTT CGY
STL 4.405 – Away MIN – Home VGK MIN MIN
DAL 4.3525 – Away CHI NSH – Home FLA FLA
OTT 4.3 – Away TOR – Home EDM EDM WPG
NJD 4.3 – Away BUF – Home PIT PIT NYR
Steer Clear
FLA 2.6125 – Away CAR DAL DAL- Home
CHI 2.655 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home DAL
TBL 2.85 – Away CBJ NSH NSH- Home
VAN 2.8975 – Away CGY CGY EDM – Home
DET 2.9075 – Away CAR CAR – Home NSH
April 8 to April 14
Best Bets
SJS 4.725 – – Home LAK LAK ANH ANH
LAK 4.38 – Away SJS SJS – Home VGK VGK
DAL 4.3525 – Away CHI NSH – Home FLA FLA
MTL 4.305 – Away – Home WPG WPG TOR CGY
STL 4.3 – Away MIN – Home MIN MIN COL
Steer Clear
FLA 2.6125 – Away CAR DAL DAL – Home
CHI 2.655 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home DAL
TBL 2.85 – Away CBJ NSH NSH – Home
DET 2.9075 – Away CAR CAR – Home NSH
PIT 3.135 – Away NYR NJD NJD – Home

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