Dylan Cozens skated after Buffalo's practice on Monday, an indication that he's starting to get close to returning. We got an update on Dylan Cozens and his possibility for returning a little later:

"I don't see us intergrating them over the next few days. They won't travel with us." – Sabres interim coach Don Granato says if all goes well then Cozens could be back within the next week and Borgen maybe a little longer than that. https://t.co/AhjRIxUzCy

— John Vogl (@BuffaloVogl) April 5, 2021

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Brendan Lemieux skated for Los Angeles in practice on Monday and though he didn't play Monday night, it does appear he's close to suiting up for a game. It will be interesting to see where they slot him.

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Colton Parayko returned for the Blues in their 6-1 loss against Vegas. He had been out since February but is back and skated just under 20 minutes while blocking three shots.

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Jaroslav Halak is on the COVID list with a positive test. We know what that means: watch Boston news very closely for the next few days. We have seen this spiral out of control on a couple teams already.

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Eric Staal lined up between Jonathan Drouin and Tyler Toffoli to start the game on Monday night. That effectively leaves Jesperi Kotkaniemi as the 4C. Staal was also moved to the top PP unit.

In that game, Brendan Gallagher took an Alexander Romanov shot, it appeared, to the hand and left the game, not to return. He has had these issues in the past so this is obviously a concern for Gallagher and the Habs as he has a fractured hand. Timeline is yet to be determined.

Eric Staal scored the overtime winner in his first game in a Habs uniform. Not a bad way to make a first impression with your new teammates.

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Jake DeBrusk was on the third line for Boston's 3-2 overtime loss to Philly, having taken a couple weeks with a COVID protocols of his own.

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Pierre-Luc Dubois had two goals in Winnipeg's 4-3 win. That gives him eight goals in 24 games with the Jets. Not a bad start to his own career with his new team.

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Just want to do a little rant. Nothing too heavy, just some thoughts on this weird season.

This was the first year I've done serious betting on NHL games.  By that I mean betting every day. So far, I've managed a very tiny profit, which is to say I haven't done as well as I’d hoped.

It is not curious to me that I'm bordering on losing money this year. Most of my plays have been tails from other people, with myself only making small prop bets, and it's my first year doing so. It is curious that not only am I on the border of a negative ROI, but I’ve talked to some other people not having as great of seasons as they normally do. It could be a coincidence.

The question is why, if it's not coincidence, that this is happening.

One thing I'll say out of the gate is that I think Vegas got wiser to the effects of all intra-divisional play than the bettors have. I really do think that there are effects here – be it matchups, mental lapses, travel – that we haven't been able to quantify, because we haven't really had to deal with this. We don't pay a lot of attention to playoff performance because they're a series of games that lasts no longer than seven, and roughly half the league is excluded from the sample. However, teams have effectively been playing mini-playoff series all year. Maybe we should have studied those effects more closely.

There is also the COVID factor. In Eric Staal's first media availability with Montreal, he talked about how the COVID outbreak affected things in the Buffalo room. Nothing specific, but to me it seemed to intimate at the least that there are issues we either haven't really considered or haven't given enough weight to. Even just the disruption alone. What does that mean for teams like Minnesota or Dallas?

There is also the scheduling. In prior seasons, traveling across time zones for back-to-back games was an infrequent occurrence. This year, with the compressed schedule, it happens all the time. Eventually, I want to go look through how those teams have done, but I've been fading those teams in DFS and it's worked out well so far.

I know it seems like I bring it up every week, but this is a season like no other and I worry about incorrectly assigning causation where there is none, or eschewing causation where it's obvious. I worry about trying a blanket adjustment based on scoring differences or shot differences and not getting an accurate picture of a team/player. Remember that strictly speaking, you can't really compare across divisions this year. Each division is its own entity with its own strengths and weaknesses. That is what makes this season so hard to evaluate.

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How about the season Samuel Girard is having? I know it's hard to stand out in Colorado if you're not named MacKinnon or Makar but I think it's worth going through Girard's season.

A couple years ago, I talked about Girard and how good his 2018-19 season was. That was the season that put Girard on my radar, and for very good reasons: he ranked very well by some underlying metrics that year. His follow-up season of 2019-20 didn't do anything to quell my suspicion that Girard was a burgeoning defensive star. Here were his metrics like zone entries and exits, from CJ Turtoro's viz, that showed just how good he is in transition:

That is just flat outstanding. Exceeding the 90^th percentile in controlled entries and exits, as well as nearly the 100^th percentile in shot assists, is an incredible season.

What has he done in 2020-21? Well, here are his offensive and defensive impacts, from Evolving Hockey:

Again, just incredible.

It wouldn't shock anyone that per EH, he's the top defenceman by Wins Above Replacement this season, (2.4) and it's not particularly close with teammate Devon Toews next-closest at 1.8. One issue with WAR is that it rewards finishing and goaltending, things not necessarily in Girard's control. We can use expected WAR, and in that case Girard finishes fourth. Either by actual results or expected results, Girard has been a top-5 defenceman in hockey this year.

It is probably worth noting that Girard's point/game mark has climbed every season of his career. He won't be a near-70-point defenceman, as is his pace this year, but rather this shows he can easily be a 40-point guy, even without power-play time. Peripherals are going to remain an issue for him until he shows otherwise but just the fact that he has put up the points he has bodes well for future fantasy value.

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When I think of Sam Girard, the guy I think will be the next Sam Girard is Matt Grzelcyk. In many ways, he's already that guy.

All the same, Grzelcyk displays a lot of the same traits as Girard and we're going to get to watch the two of them grow in the NHL for the next few years. I know Gryzz isn't super popular among Bruins fans at time, but he's good. Give him time.

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Something I've been thinking about periodically this season is Dougie Hamilton's future contract. He is UFA at the end of the season and I suspect he'll re-sign with Carolina. The question is for how long and for how much.

It is the 'how much' that interests me here because Hamilton is a unique player. He is top-15 in points per 60 minutes at all strengths over the last three years, in the neighbourhood of guys like Burns, Letang, Giordano, and Karlsson. That would indicate a contract closer to $10M a season than $5M. But in that span, he's played borderline second-pair minutes (about 21:22 a game), and the guys in that ice time range are players like Torey Krug, Jake Muzzin, and Nick Leddy. In other words, players with contracts in the $4M-$7M range.  

Hamilton won't come in around the $5M range. If the Hurricanes are lucky, they'll be able to lock him up for the $7M-$8M range. But I do think this is an interesting negotiation because he's clearly an elite defenceman, but he doesn't play 25 minutes a night and his season-high is 50 points (yes his last two years in aggregate have been much higher than that pace). An interesting contract yet to come.