Ramblings: Jarry’s Poor Return; Bergeron’s Future; Werenski, Meier & More (Apr 7)

Alexander MacLean

2021-04-07

We're into the first full week of April, which used to mean playoffs would be starting today (they used to start on the Wednesday right? It's been a while…). Right now though, fantasy playoffs are either approaching, or in some leagues, already upon us. In one of my fantasy leagues we have 16 teams make our H2H playoffs, and with two weeks set aside for the final, this week is week one. It feels early, and it certainly is, but ready or not the end of the season is coming up soon. In that same league, my only goalie is Carey Price, who just went down on Monday night with an injury. I managed to get my minimum one start in last night, and I can likely coast to a win on skaters alone, but in the next round I may have to rely on Jonas Johansson getting a start – not an ideal situation. 

Hopefully the timeline is short for Price and the Habs, as they are also missing right wingers Joel Armia and Brendan Gallagher for the time being. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is worth looking into, as he was seeing some time alongside Tomas Tatar and Phillip Danault

In a compressed season like this, the injuries could come at a fast and furious pace to close out the season, so make sure if you have championship aspirations you have the depth to make it all work regardless of who might go down. 

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Another reason to look into Montreal players is that they have the highest number of games remaining at this point in the season, with 21. The Bruins are the only other team with more than 19. On the flip side, the Blue Jackets, Canucks, Jets, and Red Wings all only have 15 games left to play. Something to think about as we move into trade deadline season. Keep up to date with it over at Frozentools with their handy Schedule Planner.

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Jake Virtanen was added to the Covid list, meaning that we still haven't seen the end of the positive tests in the Vancouver organization. From a fantasy standpoint, anyone outside of their top five assets is droppable right now in the crunch time of the season, and it's worth looking ahead to who is playing the Canucks next week to sort out whether it's worth keeping those players on your roster too. Hint: you might not enjoy owning Edmonton players. 

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The Thompson brothers both picked up assists last night in their head-to-head game. New Jersey Devils rookie Tyce Thompson recorded his first NHL point on the opening goal of the game. Mikhail Maltsev also picked up his first career assist on the play (neither will be very fantasy relevant). Tage Thompson of the Sabres added four shots on goal to his assist in 15 minutes of ice time, and as a larger player (six-foot-seven), he's still 250 games away from his breakout threshold. Keep an eye on him for 2024, which is also probably the earliest that the Sabres will have a shot at the playoffs. 

Pure speculation on my part, but is it possible that Kyle Palmieri nets a better return than Taylor Hall at the deadline? Cheaper cap hit, better production, physical element, and he has overall been the more productive player this season. Their fantasy values will depend where they get traded (assuming they do). 

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From Evolving Hockey, there's some proof that despite the Capitals and Islanders playing to a 1-0 final, it was still a back-and-forth, entertaining game. 

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The Islanders system may steal a few H2H playoff matches for some fantasy underdogs. The team is also the only one this season with eight or more even strength goals in a single game (obviously not last night). The Islanders aren't talked about in the same stratosphere as the Lightning and the Avalanche, but in the playoffs they're probably the best bet to come out of the East. 

On a related note:

On the flip side, Vitek Vanecek made 38 saves in the loss. He's going to be a great platoon option for Seattle. Really, who else is Washington not able to protect that the Kraken will want? 

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Tristan Jarry returned from injury last night and it didn't start well. He allowed four goals in the first period and was on the bench to start the second. I got suckered into paying up for Casey DeSmith in one league, so seeing Jarry return so quickly wasn't what I had hoped for. DeSmith then let in four goals over the latter two periods in relief – luckily, I had Jake Oettinger in my lineup instead (more on him later). 

The Penguins' duo will likely be close to splitting the workload for the rest of the season, so if you own one then if you can spare the roster spot, acquiring the other is probably a mandatory move. Both have been solid, but DeSmith has actually edged Jarry in production. It makes sense for the team to want to split them to ensure that both are rested and ready for the playoffs. Here are their season stats prior to Wednesday night's action.

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I'm comfortably starting DeSmith every time he's in the net. Despite to poor return from injury last night, same goes for Jarry. 

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Patrice Bergeron man, what a stud. Will he ever age? Does he play until he's 70?

Two goals last night plus an empty-netter for the geri-hattrick. The consistency of his stats across the board (both fantasy-wise and underlying numbers) are incredible. There's no large red flags that he's going to tail off anytime soon except for his age. At 35 (36 by the start of next season), does Bergeron finally start to tail off? Some may point to linemates Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak as reasons that Bergeron should be able to keep up his usual 70+ point pace, but I think it's another player that will play a bigger role in his future production. That man would be the Bruins' second line centre David Krejci.

Krejci is also turning 35 in a few weeks, and hasn't tailed off much at all either. However, he is also a free agent this summer, and is able to sign wherever he pleases. Not really needing to chase a cup, the Czech native may decide to stay with Boston, and his support down the lineup is likely the insulation that Bergeron needs to be able to succeed for another couple of years. If Krejci leaves and isn't replaced with someone equal or better, then look for Bergeron's offensive zone time to crater, as well as likely breaking up the perfection line. Splitting up the trio for any length of time would knock a few points off of all of their totals, but it would especially hurt Bergeron. 

Jeremy Swayman also made his NHL debut, making 40 saves for the 4-2 win. Between the strong showings of Dan Vladar and Swayman, it's making the Bruins' current duo expendable. The money saved by letting Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak walk in free agency would allow the Bruins to bring in some more secondary scoring propping the contention window open a little longer. 

Shayne Gostisbehere notched his first point since being waived, and despite the assist, he's not likely to provide a lot in fantasy leagues. There should be better options on your waiver wire, including Matt Grzelcyk who is running the Bruins powerplay. 

The 31-year-old Jakub Voracek has four points in four games, and would be on pace for 70 points in an 82-game season. This is despite putting less than two shots per game on net, and having seen his ice time both at even strength and on the powerplay decline for three straight years. Strangely, none of his underlying percentages are out-of-whack, with the only real change showing up in his offensive zone starts. He's up over 55% for the first time in six years, and it's surprising that he hasn't been given that kind of deployment recently. With a deeper forward core, there is also no reason Voracek should have to be used heavily in the defensive end, meaning he could continue as a 70-point player for another year or two. 

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The Hurricanes padded some totals with two late empty net goals, as Jordan Staal picked up his second, which put him at 12 on the season. His career high is 26, and in his 14thseason he would be on pace to surpass that if it was going to be a full 82-game campaign. The shooting percentage among many other underlying numbers show that this isjust a prolonged hot-streak, and with Sebastian Aho and Vincent Trocheck (who also scored two last night) locking up the top two centre slots, the room and winger options for Staal moving forward are very limited. 

Aleksander Barkov continued his bid to be a Hart-trophy finalist with two goals of his own, and noted top-scorer Carter Verhaeghe picked up an assist on both of them. I read an article recently about how Verhaeghe's shooting history actually might have indicated he had this kind of production in him. The article is here, and if I can get any more names out of Jack Dawkins and his shot models, then I will be sure to pass those names along to you so all of our fantasy teams can reap the future rewards. In the meantime, take a second look at skilled forwards in the Lightning and Panthers systems. There seems to be something in the water down south. 

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The Blue Jackets managed to hang in the playoff picture as well, with Joonas Korpisalo making 28 saves to keep the top Lightning scorers quiet. It was actually their fourth line that did the damage in this one, with Ross Colton scoring in only eight minutes of ice time, and Luke Schenn adding the other tally. Pat Maroon picked up two assists in the loss. 

Zach Werenski has picked it up of late (I should have warned you that I traded him in two leagues in the last week). He has five points in the last five games, but as a bonus for his fantasy owners he has put up some peripherals over that same stretch with six hits, six blocks, and 12 shots. Werenski put up three shots per game last season, and it seems that he may be getting back to that comfort level of late being able to blast away at will. In points-only leagues he's someone to look into for the deadline, but in multi-category leagues his recent peripherals are likely an aberration. He's one of those guys that I don't usually like to own in fantasy as he doesn't provide anything when the scoring dries up, like it did earlier in the year. Now might be a good time to sell him in those kinds of leagues. 

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The injury issues for the Predators continue while Juuse Saros continues to win games in spite of it:

Dante Fabbro left early in the game, so the rest of the group had to pick up the slack. Roman Josi recorded two assists in almost 30 minutes of ice time, with three-and-a-half of those minutes coming on the powerplay. Despite the infusion of young puck-moving defenders, there aren't many better producers from the back end than Josi. 

From a trade deadline perspective, the Central Division is going to be very interesting to watch this year. Almost all of the top teams right now are between $0 and $2 million in deadline cap space. However, the Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes, and Nashville Predators have over $30 million in combined cap space. Depending on internal budgets, there could be some major moves made in the Central. With the Lightning (sans Nikita Kucherov), Hurricanes, and Panthers owning three of the six top point totals, the Predators have to be realistic about their chances to come out of the division. With the Predators possibly buying and selling though, in moving Mattias Ekholm as part of some expansion draft preparation, the Central Division could be where all the fun is next Monday. 

Speaking of, we'll have you covered on all the fantasy takes for the relevant trades that take place up to the deadline, and you don't want to be caught flat-footed and miss an opportunity. 

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In the last of the Central Division matchups, the Blackhawks managed to also keep pace in the playoff race, with Kevin Lankinen allowing only two goals in the win. At the other end of the ice, I mentioned above that Oettinger had a better game than DeSmith, but that doesn't mean the stats were great. He allowed three goals in the loss, with the Blackhawks outplaying the Stars for the majority of the game. There was no answer for the Patrick Kane, Alex Debrincat, and Kirby Dach line. Moving forward, we might be able to expect Dach to rack up at least a point in every second game playing with those two. Meanwhile, winger Dominik Kubalik has struggled of late, and who can blame him when his most common linemates are David Kampf and Brandon Hagel. He has seen his shot rate crater despite his ice time holding steady at around 15 minutes per game. If you can still sell high then do so, but it may be too late to take advantage of his solid start to the season. 

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Swiss winger Timo Meier broke out a little early for a 70-point pace in his third NHL season, but then tailed off a little with some added responsibility for a team that was transitioning out of the age of the Joes (Thornton and Pavelski). He's showing signs of a bounce-back this year, or at least his underlying numbers are. However, the 24-year-old's production is being held back by a shooting percentage less than 70% of his career average. If he was shooting at a more usual 11% than his current 6.8%, he would again be on pace for over 60 points. 

He may never be a regular point-per-game scorer, but his value in multi-category leagues could be a poor-man's Brady Tkachuk. Averaging three shots per game over the last three years, when he starts getting over 18 minutes of ice time per game, watch out! His hits have dropped back down below two-per game this year, but part of that can also be blamed on the ice time as he's seeing over a minute less per game than last year. This might be the best time to buy in on Meier, while you still can. 

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American NHL players playing at the Olympics could be in jeopardy, just as the GMs drew it up:

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You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

Stay safe!

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