Ramblings: Gusev Leaving Devils, Comparing Pearson to Toffoli, Who Is Michael Bunting? (Apr 10)

Ian Gooding

2021-04-10

The Devils have placed Nikita Gusev on unconditional waivers for his contract to be terminated. He will be free to sign with any team once he clears on Saturday. Gusev has been a healthy scratch multiple times, so leaving the Devils appears to be a huge break as far as his fantasy value goes. On the surface, the opportunity seemed to be there for Gusev, but New Jersey just didn't appear to be the right fit. Expect a team out there to take a flier on Gusev and maybe even give him an audition on a scoring line. Unless you're in a super super deep league, I probably wouldn't add him until I know where that destination will be.

Gusev will be a UFA this summer. Although he will probably sign somewhere for far less than the $4.5 million he was earning this season, this is an opportunity for him to improve his free agent value or at the very least secure another NHL contract. So he could still provide some short-term value. If not, then it might be back to the KHL.

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With the trade deadline approaching, the Leafs were able to acquire Riley Nash from the Blue Jackets for a conditional seventh-round pick in 2022. Nash has seven points (2 G, 5 A) in 37 games, so he will likely slot in as a depth forward for the Leafs once he returns from injured reserve. Columbus appears to be in sell mode, as David Savard was recently healthy scratched and Nick Foligno is also rumored to be on the trade block.

If the Jackets were to make a late-season run, they would have to do it without Zach Werenski. He will miss the rest of the regular season because he will undergo surgery for an inguinal/sports hernia. Werenski finishes the season with 20 points in 35 games, including six points over his last six games. Although he had reportedly been trying to play through the injury, it didn't appear to slow him that much. (On a personal note, I'm glad the trade offer I sent for Werenski a few weeks ago was turned down. Blessing in disguise.)

With Werenski out of the lineup, expect Seth Jones to log a ton of minutes on the Columbus blueline in addition to all the first-unit power-play minutes. Mikko Lehtonen, who was acquired from the Leafs earlier this season, might also benefit from some leftover power-play time.

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Bobby Ryan will also miss the rest of the regular season with an upper-body injury. He finishes his first season with the Wings with 14 points (7 G, 7 A) in 33 games.

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Battling for their playoff lives in the West, the St. Louis Blues poured it on to the Minnesota Wild on Friday. They started with four goals in the first period, but didn't stop there. When all was said and done, St. Louis put nine pucks behind Kaapo Kahkonen. So why wasn't Kahkonen pulled at some point? Because the Wild were resting Cam Talbot for Saturday's rematch. That many goals allowed will irreparably damage your goaltending ratios for the week.

Kahkonen has only started three times since March 20, and he hasn't won since March 16. Over those three starts, Kahkonen has a 6.07 GAA and .839 SV%. After a strong start to the season, the wheels have really fallen off for the rookie goalie. The Wild goaltending situation has moved from a timeshare to Talbot owning the net.

Fresh off a three-assist game on Wednesday, Jared Spurgeon finished the game with no points and a minus-5. I noticed that he was one of the top waiver-wire adds on Yahoo earlier today, so Kahkonen wasn't the only unpleasant surprise from this team. And fresh off his hat trick on Wednesday, Kevin Fiala was a minus-4. So basically the tables turned for the Wild, getting booted 9-1 on Friday after pounding the Avalanche themselves 8-3 on Wednesday. Hockey is a game of momentum swings.

Oh yeah, so about the Blues. Ryan O'Reilly led the way with a hat trick plus an assist with a plus-4 and five shots. Sammy Blais and Justin Faulk each scored a goal and added two assists, while Jaden Schwartz scored a pair.

Many fantasy owners had probably already bailed on Faulk, who entered this game without a point in his previous 11 games. This after he burst out of the gate with eight points, including five goals, in his first 15 games. I was a little skeptical on Faulk after that hot start, as his point total in his first season in St. Louis (16 points in 69 games) seemed underwhelming. Same with the lack of power-play time, which was key to his success in Carolina. He might just be a hot-and-cold player offensively at this point.

Mike Hoffman no longer seems to be a part of the Blues' plans, as he was made a healthy scratch for the second consecutive game. The chances of him being traded before Monday's deadline seem rather high, although the Blues may also feel more confident about buying (or retaining) after Friday's performance. Still, the move to St. Louis has not helped Hoffman's value, so for now just keep him on your bench and hope that he has a new address by Monday.

Of course, keep it locked on Dobber Hockey on Monday for the usual trade breakdowns and more. Because of the unusual season that we're experiencing, it doesn't sound like this trade deadline will be as active as previous ones have been. There should still be a few deals of interest, though.

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It was kind of a wacky night for goals in the West overall. The Vegas Golden Knights had their own outburst on Friday, putting four goals past Adin Hill before the first period was half over. After the second period and five goals allowed, fourth-string goalie Ivan Prosvetov replaced Hill in the Coyotes net.

With both Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta on the shelf, Hill has started nine consecutive games for the Yotes. No goalie has played more games over that stretch than Hill, who entered Friday's game with a 6-2-1 record over that span. The Coyotes have back-to-backs on Sunday and Monday, so he may finally be due for a rest.

There wasn't any Golden Knights who went off in their 7-4 win. However, Alex Tuch and Tomas Nosek were the only Vegas forwards who were held without a point in this game. I can't make it any more exciting than that.

Who is Michael Bunting, you ask? With another goal on Friday, Bunting now has five goals in six games this season. That includes a hat trick against the Kings on Monday. Prior to this season, Bunting had played five career NHL games, which were two seasons ago in 2018-19. Yet he's riding shotgun on a scoring line with Conor Garland and Nick Schmaltz, which suggests to me that there might continue to be something there in the short term.

Bunting's Dobber Prospects profile hardly sells me on him as a must-add to your keeper team, but he did finish last season 12th in AHL scoring. The profile does compare him with Brad Marchand, who if I remember correctly didn't arrive in the NHL with a ton of fanfare but built up a reputation as a pest first. So who knows, maybe Bunting "Marchands" his way onto the Coyotes roster for more than a cup of coffee since Marchand is one of those players you hate but would love to have on your team. He also delivered four hits on Friday, so there appears to be a physical component to his game.

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Jonas Johansson posted his first career shutout, stopping all 28 shots he faced in a 2-0 win over Anaheim. In 11 games, that was just his third quality start of the season, two of which have been with the Avalanche in spite of spending the majority of the season with Buffalo. Man, he must have felt like he won the lottery when he found out he was traded from Buffalo to Colorado. Given how dominant the Avalanche have been, Johansson is probably worth a spot start whenever it's his turn.

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Sidney Crosby scored a goal and added two assists on Friday, giving him 47 points in 40 games. Even at age 33, he's still a top-10 scorer in terms of points per game (1.18 PTS/GP).

Crosby's linemate Bryan Rust scored twice with an assist on Friday. As much as he's proving that he's not a bust after last season's point-per-game pace (56 points in 55 games), he was held without a point in his previous five games entering Friday's game.

Over his last nine games, Jared McCann has six goals and 10 points. He was averaging under 12 minutes per game during the first quarter, but in the third quarter he's now averaging 15 minutes. The Evgeni Malkin injury has something to do with that. Because Malkin will return at some point, and McCann's advanced stats (18.0 SH%, 13.2 5-on-5 SH%, 3.2 PTS/60, 1065 PDO) all show a much higher than expected value, don't expect him to continue to produce at this rate long-term.

With two assists, Kris Letang now has multiple points in three consecutive games. I own Letang in multiple leagues and had been worried that because of his age (33) and injury history that I'd invested too heavily in him. Yet only five defensemen who have played at least 25 games have a higher point-per-game average than Letang (0.85 PTS/GP). Now I need to give serious thought as to whether I'll keep him for next season.

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One of those defensemen ahead of Letang in points-per-game is Adam Fox. He was held without a point on Friday, which means that his point streak ends at 12 games. That's still quite a run for him with 21 points over his last 12 games. In fact, he's now tied for the lead in points among defensemen (37) with Victor Hedman. Maybe he'll receive some Norris Trophy votes as well.

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With a goal and two assists on Friday, Justin Schultz has 21 points in 37 games. Fantasy owners didn't seem enamored with his signing with Washington because of his recent injury history and dropoff in production. Yet he's producing at a better rate than Zach Werenski, Mikhail Sergachev, Torey Krug, and Miro Heiskanen – all blueliners that would have been picked before him in fantasy drafts. Just saying.

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In case you missed it, the Canucks elected to try not to shop Tanner Pearson at the trade deadline, instead extending him for three more years. The timing of the signing doesn't make a ton of sense given the Canucks' history of overpaying for bottom-9 forwards, along with contracts needed for Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, and coach Travis Green this offseason.

The most obvious player to compare to Pearson is his former Kings' teammate Tyler Toffoli – the player that the Canucks failed to re-sign in the offseason. Jim Benning might be signing Pearson out of fear that he could be the next ex-Canuck to make his team look bad, citing Pearson's intangibles during his Friday press conference.

A look at this season's stats shows that the Canucks could have had a much better scorer for just $1 million more. Source: Frozen Tools Compare Players

2020-21 season

GPGAPTSSH%PTS/GPPPSOG
TANNER PEARSON3365118.10.33274
TYLER TOFFOLI3419103017.40.885109

It hasn't even been close this season. Toffoli has more goals than Pearson has points. Of course, Toffoli has a much higher shooting percentage, but to be good you have to be lucky… or is it the other way around? Toffoli has a career shooting percentage of just under 11 percent, so I'd be surprised if he continues to score at a pace that would put him at 45 goals for the entire season.

We knew this unusual season could make some players look better (or worse) than they really are. To get a more accurate representation of the two players, you need to go back to the two previous seasons. Tip: If compiling your own projections, go further back than the previous season.

2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons combined

 GPGAPTSSH%PTS/GPPPSOG
TANNER PEARSON14939337212.50.4815311
TYLER TOFFOLI1503741788.60.5215429

From years of being disappointed, Canucks fans are used to focusing on the negative. Yet from owning these two players over multiple seasons, I was aware that their values were much closer than what they've shown this season. Pearson obviously benefitted from the higher shooting percentage, and Toffoli makes up for that by taking more shots. In case you were wondering, Toffoli and Pearson were teammates for only 27 games over this span (17 games with Los Angeles, 10 games with Vancouver).

I'm not here to tell you that Pearson is a better player than Toffoli. In fact, fantasy-wise I would take Toffoli, and that was even before this season. However, this stats comparison should show that the two former teammates are more evenly valued than you might think. Take a breath, Canucks fans, as there could be regression on both players in different directions next season.

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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