Fantasy Take: Habs trade for Gustafsson

Michael Clifford

2021-04-12

Montreal acquired the puck-moving defenceman they badly need in Erik Gustafsson, acquiring him from Philadelphia for a seventh-round pick in 2022. Renaud Lavoie of TVA would go on to say that the Flyers are retaining half of Gustafsson's salary.

Montreal gets

Gustafsson has been one of the more volatile players in fantasy over the last few years. He had a 60-point season in 2018-19 and then followed that up with 29 points in 66 games last year. He has just 10 points in 24 games this year.

The thing is, if he gets minutes, he can produce: over the last three years, his 5-on-5 point rate is higher than guys like Victor Hedman, Darnell Nurse, and Shea Theodore. It is just that he doesn't get ice time: he lost two minutes two years ago over his career-high 22:35 in 2018-19, and was down under 17:30 this year for Philadelphia. That he is a left shot works in his favour; Montreal's right side has Jeff Petry and Shea Weber. He would never supplant either of those guys. The left side has the injured Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Brett Kulak, and the newly-acquired Jon Merrill. Chiarot probably gets top-pair minutes once he's back, but the second pair is wide open.

I could see Gustafsson working out well with Petry. Gustafsson is a wonderful puck-mover, and this isn't conjecture, it's backed up by things like zone entries, zone exits, and shot assists:

His problem is he's atrocious defensively. His defensive impacts are among the worst in the league over the last three years. So, he needs help, and Petry is a guy who could really help. Petry can move the puck with him, and also cover on the back end. They don't have another guy who can do both those things that can play with Gustafsson.

Gustafsson could have a lot of fantasy value if the Habs use him right. Second pair with secondary PP minutes gets him to fantasy relevance. If he's down on the third pair playing 15-16 minutes a night, though, he won't have any fantsay value.

It does give them options. They can use Merrill if they feel they need a defensive boost on a given night, or Gustafsson if they feel the need to spark some offence. As such, I suspect Gustafsson will be in and out of the lineup, and that means inconsistent fantasy value. He is a guy you might pick up off the wire for a game or two, not for weeks at a time.

Who this helps

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Shayne Gostisbehere

Robert Hagg

Erik Gustafsson

Who this hurts

Montreal goaltending

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