Eastern Edge: The Vrana/Mantha swap, and Hall in Boston

Brennan Des

2021-04-13

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss expectations for Hall in Boston, with a few notes on the blockbuster trade that saw Jakub Vrana and Anthony Mantha swap teams. Be sure to check out DobberHockey's Trade Deadline Tracker, where you can catch up on all the moves that were made – accompanied by cutting-edge fantasy analysis from the intelligent minds of Dobber, Ian, Mike and Alex.

Taylor Hall

The 2018 Hart Trophy winner joins the Bruins after posting 19 points in 37 games with the Sabres this year. It's been an incredibly disappointing season for Hall, but it's hard to be too critical when you take a closer look at the context and consider Buffalo's struggles this season. The team sits dead last in the league standings, winning 10 of their 41 games and sporting one of the league's worst attacks with 2.32 goals per game. While we've seen players post solid individual numbers on bad teams before, feelings of demoralization and dejection seemed to spread through the locker room and hinder the team's play during their 18-game winless streak. Although Hall received a lot of negative press for performing below expectations because of his big contract and 'superstar' status, you'd be hard pressed to find a single skater on the team who outperformed expectations this year.

Hall received a lot of criticism for failing to produce while skating beside one of the league's best centers in Jack Eichel. However, it's important to mention that Buffalo's captain also underperformed this year – albeit, not to the same extent as Hall. While Eichel's 18 points in 21 games are certainly not bad, they put him on pace for 70 points in an 82-game season – a considerable downgrade from the 94-point pace he posted last year. Hall posted 13 points in those 21 games with Eichel in the lineup – which obviously isn't good, but I'm willing to cut him some slack considering those were his first 21 games with a new team in Buffalo.

                A big part of Hall's offensive struggles this year can be attributed to a lack of power-play production. When he won the Hart Trophy for his outstanding performance in 2017-2018, he tallied an impressive 37 points with the man advantage through 76 appearances – or 0.49 power-play points per game (PPP/G). His 0.36 PPP/G during the 2018-2019 campaign was still quite impressive, and his 0.28 PPP/G last season wasn't too bad either. However, he has just six points with the man advantage through 37 games this year, which translates to a lacklustre 0.16 PPP/G. Buffalo's power-play has actually been above-average this year, converting on 21.6-percent of their opportunities. You can't really blame the team for Hall's lack of power-play production, it just seems like Hall didn't fit in on the top unit. It's hard to imagine things being significantly different for Hall in Boston – where the team's power-play production runs through the 'Perfection Line' of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, who have spent years developing their chemistry.

                I think a fresh start could be great for Hall's fantasy value as he escapes his struggles in Buffalo. He'll get the chance to rediscover his elite goal-scoring abilities while playing beside the talented playmaker that is David Krejci. Hall had been shooting the puck less frequently this season, averaging just 2.4 shots per game after posting around 3.5 shots per game in recent years. Krejci's pass-first mentality should hopefully help Hall boost his shot totals. The 29-year-old winger has scored on just 2.3-percent of his shots so far this season, which seems unsustainably low when you consider that an 8 to 10-percent success rate is the range we've come to expect from him. Overall, I do think Hall can bounce back with Boston. However, I worry that he won't have enough time to find his rhythm on the power play, which would limit his overall production.

Jakub Vrana

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As I look through the players who were moved at the trade deadline, I think Vrana gains the most from his change of scenery. He leaves behind a situation in Washington where he was limited to fewer than 15 minutes of action per game and an inconsistent role on the power play. He managed to produce in the limited role, so I'm definitely excited to see what he can do with more opportunity in Detroit. While my view on Vrana is optimistic overall, I think it's worth noting that he shared the ice with a lot of good players in Washington, as he skated most of his even-strength minutes with either Evgeny Kuznetsov or Nicklas Backstrom at center. He will probably play beside Dylan Larkin in Detroit – who is certainly talented but has struggled this season with 22 points through 40 games. It'll be a big test for Vrana, who will now have to create his own offense against the top lines of other teams. I'm confident he has the talent to do it, but it won't be easy with the lower quality supporting cast he has in Detroit. With all that being said, he's currently available in 51-percent of Yahoo Leagues and makes for a great low-risk, high-reward addition to your fantasy roster.  

Anthony Mantha

                The 26-year-old winger has struggled this season, posting 21 points through 42 outings. He began his upward trajectory in the back-half of the 2018-2019 campaign, when he posted 28 points in his final 26 games. He sustained that momentum last year, tallying 38 points through 43 appearances. Mantha has proven himself by producing his own offense over a significant period of time, so I'm willing to write this unprecedented season off as an anomaly in his development. I think he'll benefit from joining a star-studded top-six in Washington, in front of a blueline that is actually capable of moving the puck and creating offense – a luxury he didn't have in Detroit. He goes from being one of three offensive threats in Detroit, to one of many offensive threats in Washington. As such, he should draw easier matchups going forward, which will help boost his offensive production. While Mantha probably won't see a prominent role with the man advantage, Washington's second unit is probably an upgrade from Detroit's top unit. He never really relied on power-play production because Detroit has been awful with the man advantage in recent years. Mantha is currently available in 62-percent of Yahoo Leagues – what are you waiting for? Go add him!

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