Ramblings: Debuts Against Former Teams; Colorado Goalies; Smith; Duclair & More
Alexander MacLean
2021-04-14
I hope you enjoyed all of our trade deadline coverage and fantasy recaps. Dobber, Mike, and Ian all did an excellent job with their recaps, and there isn't a lot more that I want to add. Instead, I get to build on it and cover a bunch of the new-team debuts, and there were some good ones last night.
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First thing’s first though, if you own any Arizona or Minnesota players, but tomorrow's game starts at 2pm EST, so make sure you set your lineup before work instead of after. Take 30 seconds now and press that ‘set lineup’ button before you forget.
… and we’re back. For those who still have their trade deadline that hasn't passed, or maybe you just have some streaming to do, keep an eye on the unbalanced upcoming schedule. Yahoo isn't counting any games past April 8th, but other service providers may give you the option to extend the season another two weeks to encapsulate the entire regular season. From now until the end of the year, try to stack an extra Vancouver player (19 games remaining) at the expense of a Nashville, Columbus, or Detroit player (12 games remaining). Be wary with the Canucks' condensed schedule though as it may lead to some extra minuses, but should be a great recipe for some extra peripherals volume.
Keep up to date with it over at Frozentools with their handy Schedule Planner, or better yet… join the community on Discord! Sign-up link "here".
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Speaking of the Canucks, Quinn Hughes and Travis Boyd are now off of the NHL Covid list,
Despite coming off of the IR on the main fantasy hockey providers, it doesn't sound like we should get too excited about the eldest Hughes brother returning soon.
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We finally have an update on Pavel Francouz.
With the same surgery that Semyon Varlamov had, that implies Francouz's injury was hip related. Without knowing the specifics of the surgery or the timeline, what I do know is that Varlamov was back looking like himself in six months after he had procedures done on both hips. Varlamov is still putting up Vezina-like numbers, and was also with the Avalanche at that time, so hypothetically the team knows how to ensure a proper rehabilitation for this type of injury. Varlamov was 28 when he had the surgery, and Francouz is only a few years older, turning 31 this summer. Assuming then that we do see a full six-month timeline, that puts him on track to be ready right around the beginning of the 2021-22 season (if that stays on track).
Francouz is the only goalie that the Avalanche have signed to a one-way deal for next season, and in 2019-20, he had a better GAA, sv%, GSAA, QS%… etc.
Basically, all of the important numbers are skewed in Francouz's favour. With the Avalanche roster taking a huge step forward this year, Grubauer's numbers have improved mightily. Francouz being just as talented of a goalie could have done as well, if not better with this kind of team in front of him. The Avalanche's cap situation is such that of the skaters they only need to re-sign Gabriel Landeskog and some other forward depth. However, filling out the skaters may make price Grubauer out of their range. Come October, if they run with a platoon of Francouz and either a cheaper UFA or an internal promotion, it means that we could see a similar season from Francouz as we are getting from Grubauer this year. That's worth a speculative hold in most keeper leagues if you can spare the IR slot.
Grubauer's amazing season has him currently projected in my system to earn over $8 million per season on his UFA deal. He likely won't make quite that much, but he is entering unrestricted free agency at just the right time. He doesn’t have the Stanley Cup on his resume (as a starter – only as a backup) that Jordan Binnington can claim, but otherwise he compares very favorably to the 27-year-old Blues netminder. At 29, Grubauer is also in his prime, and with a few contenders having some question marks in net, the German will have options.
Meanwhile, the recently acquired Devan Dubnyk is projected for a much more reasonable $1.75 million cap hit next year, and if he likes the fit in Colorado, a Francouz/Dubnyk combo could be a much more affordable option for the Avalanche in 2021-22.
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Linus Ullmark was injured on an unassuming save not even five minutes into Buffalo's game. Dustin Tokarski entered with a 1-0 lead and fought hard to at least earn the Sabres a point. Tokarski's numbers over the last few years show that he is not an NHL caliber goalie, and it doesn't inspire much extra confidence to see him playing behind a Buffalo lineup that has less holes than a block of Swiss cheese. If you're the one manager in a million that just desperately needs a start or a few saves regardless of how many goals he might allow, then there might be a use for him on your team.
After Dan Vladar allowed eight goals on Sunday, Jeremy Swayman was back in the crease. He settled down after allowing an early goal that he saw for the whole 50-feet it travelled, and earned the shootout win making 21 saves. Expect Tuukka Rask to return for Thursday's game, and not a moment too soon because I'm not sure we can trust Swayman after this:
Anders Bjork looked impressive, and picked up an assist in 13 minutes of ice time. He stickhandled past the net on what could have been the overtime winner, and can definitely up his production with the added opportunity in Buffalo. Be aware of the coming minuses though.
I was a big fan of the Craig Smith sign in Boston, and that top-six is now loaded:
Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – David Pastrnak
Taylor Hall – David Krejci – Craig Smith
Smith is the cheapest option to try and acquire if you want in on that action. Don't worry about all of the analyses that said the second-line trio wouldn't work because none of them are high-end finishers. Smith especially is on a bit of a heater of late with 13 points in his last nine games; that whole Boston top-six are must-starts right now.
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The Flyers were my pre-season pick to win the East. They have a deep set of forwards, defencemen with varying toolkits that could cover a lot of needs, and theoretically one of the best young goalies in the game. Unfortunately, the team is a longshot to make the playoffs right now, and they're acting like it too. They look disinterested, and it's showing both on the ice and on the scoreboard. In single season leagues it's time to bail on some of the Flyers middle-of-the-lineup guys like James van Riemsdyk and Kevin Hayes.
The Capitals took advantage, with six goals, including Anthony Mantha's first as a Cap; he would also add an assist and six shots. It's tough to blame Brian Elliott for this one:
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Nico Hischier returned from injury (again), seeing 20 minutes of action. He should pick up Palmieri's offensive slack, but that likely just means a little more than a point every-other game the rest of the way.
Jonas Siegenthaler played less than 16 minutes in his Devils debut, nothing a couple hits and a minus-1 rating. He did create a couple of shot opportunities in the offensive zone, but none of his efforts led to much.
An Igor Shesterkin shutout helps out his owners that have gotten a glimpse of his talent this year. The Rangers just need to hugely improve their team defence before he becomes a fantasy stud. Similarly, managers will have to be patient with Alexis Lafreniere. He had the most time on the bench out of any Rangers player, and it is long past time to cut bait in one-year leagues.
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Scott Sabourin played in his first NHL game since March 11th of 2020, the day the NBA shut down. Luckily, it seems that nothing broke yesterday.
David Rittich allowed two goals in regulation, and was left alone with Johnny Gaudreau on the game winner. He should be a reliable option for the Leafs to spell Jack Campbell down the stretch. With Campbell still reportedly dealing with something nagging, it could even be closer to a 50/50 split. It doesn't seem like he missed his Calgary teammates all that much though.
For the Flames, Milan Lucic was a goal away from a Gordie Howe hit-trick in his 1000thgame. With tensions running high through the final stretch of games, Lucic's penalty minutes could be a difference maker in head-to-head leagues.
Sean Monahan playing less than 15 minutes in a game that went past 60 minutes isn't a great sign. Does anyone know if Darryl Sutter has a history of putting players in the dog-house…?
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During the Nashville game, there was a quote relayed from David Poile that they aren't expecting any other players to return from injury this week. If you own Filip Forsberg, or any of the other Preds, hopefully you made a trade-deadline addition to fill the void in the meantime.
Steven Stamkos is day-to-day and isn't expected to be out of the lineup for too long. With the captain out of the lineup, the Lightning have loaded up the top line with Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, and Ondrej Palat. Those three will keep their fantasy value, but it really reduces the team depth, and until Stamkos is back, we may see some lower scoring games overall out of the Lightning.
One note on a trade that wasn't made: I have been waiting all season for the Lightning to upgrade their goaltending, and they passed the deadline without a move. Curtis McElhinney then looked terrible in his outing last night as the Predators put up a touchdown on him. Colorado missed their shot at a cup last year due to injuries in net, and I would hate to see the Lightning deal with the same fate in their chase for back-to-back titles.
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Jason Robertson just keeps on scoring. Robertson took Roope Hintz's spot on the powerplay with the latter out of the lineup again with a nagging injury.
Carter Verhaeghe, he of 17 goals in 42 games, is out week-to-week with an upper body-injury. In his absence Anthony Duclair returned to Aleksander Barkov's wing, and Jonathan Huberdeau was moved up to the left flank with them. Barkov scored early on, and with the added depth it's possible this isn't just a short-term move. Both Huberdeau and Barkov showed they could put up a point per game apart, and together they might be able to get back to the 100-point pace they were at last season. Duclair could be even more productive than Craig Smith through the end of the season at a similar cost. It’s worth checking in on both.
Looking at the rest of the lineup, it doesn't look like there will be a spot on the wing in the top-six for Sam Bennett, especially once Nikita Gusev makes his debut. That means it's very possible he becomes the second line centre for the Panthers, as Dobber alluded to here. However, Bennett may then take over a bit more of a defensive role for the Panthers. His stock may have risen in the move to Florida, but keep your expectations reasonable.
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Chris Driedger says good morning:
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You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.
Stay safe!