Looking Ahead: Is Samsonov Droppable?
Adam Daly-Frey
2021-04-16
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to Twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, April 14.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Mackenzie Blackwood, G, New Jersey Devils (Available in 48 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – New Jersey has a strong schedule upcoming (see below) and Blackwood is cemented as the starter for the Devils, even as they roll out three goalies (Aaron Dell and Scott Wedgewood the others.) New Jersey isn't the strongest team in the league – only 14 wins this season, which is worse than Detroit – but for leagues that track goalie peripherals and not just wins and losses, Blackwood has more value than a lot of goalies who are more highly-rostered. See a little below for an example.
On the year, Blackwood's only started 25 games but that low number is due to injury, which actually bodes well for his fantasy stock as New Jersey will want to get comfortable the rest of the way in this shortened season. The third-year goalie is having his worst year so far from a numbers perspective, with only a .902 save percentage and a tough 3.03 goals against average. But that could also be chalked up to the earlier injury woes, as Blackwood's been much better in the larger sample of the past two years – he's a career .912 and 2.80, and this is the first season that his goals allowed over expected is in the negatives. Seasonal players stuck holding Thatcher Demko or Philipp Grubauer could do a lot worse as a bench fill-in, especially over the back half of April.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Sam Reinhart, F, Buffalo Sabres (Available in 62 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – With the injury to Jack Eichel now all but confirmed that Eichel will be gone for the season and the trade deadline firmly behind us, Reinhart is all but cemented as the top center in Buffalo for the rest of the season. That means Reinhart will continue to play 19+ minutes every night and also time on the top power play unit (really only unit, because Buffalo), which is a great opportunity even on a horrible team.
Reinhart has been heating up as of late, with 3G-3A over his last ten games (on 20 shots), so the point production is where it should be for a player owned at his level, and the shooting percentage isn't anything out of whack – Reinhart is a career 13.1 percent shooter. While leagues that track peripherals like shots and +/- will devalue Reinhart (he's a whopping -23), in season-long and keeper ponts-only leagues, Reinhart is a free add that won't blow anyone away with production but will steadily accrue his points.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Ilya Samsonov, G, Washington Capitals (Rostered in 84 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Before the year started, Samsonov was a player who would've had a lot of Calder Trophy discussion surrounding him if he was eligible – it was actually a fairly common question – as Samsonov was the clear starter on an always-potent Capitals team. Unfortunately, COVID early in the year both hurt him developmentally but it also rolled out the red carpet for Vitek Vanecek to steal the starting job and not look back.
On the season Samsonov hasn't done much to hold Vanecek off, as Samsonov has put up a sub .900 save percentage (0.899) and hasn't played in back-to-back games once all season, even with time off between games. Meanwhile his opposition for ice time in Vanecek has a 0.913 save percentage and has started 28 games, and also has the better goals against average (2.60 to Samsonov's 2.83.) For keeper leagues, Samsonov is a player to hang on to given the pedigree and team around him, but in seasonal leagues Samsonov is benchable and droppable if it's the playoffs given the Capitals' horrible schedule the remainder of April.
The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Kailer Yamamoto, F, Edmonton Oilers (Rostered in 43 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Yamamoto was a post-hype sleeper pick for a lot of fantasy players this season, as he only picked up steam late last season and was drafted quite late this year, and he's expecting closer to that late draft position than to anything resembling a draft steal.
Yamamoto was supposed to ride shotgun with one of Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid when the season started and while that's turned out to be fairly accurate – at 5v5, Yamamoto's most common linemates are Draisaitl and Dominik Kahun – but that hasn't turned into much production, just eight goals and 10 assists on the year while playing just 16:17 per game. Yamamoto also doesn't produce much in peripheral categories, with only 55 shots in 40 games and two combined hits and blocks per game. This is after Yamamoto managed just under a point per game last year (11G-15A in 27 games), which is a major disappointment. Seasonal leagues should have removed Yamamoto at least a month ago and his value in keeper leagues is marginal as long as Jesse Puljujarvi and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are Oilers.
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from April 16 to April 28
Montreal – Because of the Vancouver situation, this is very subject to change, but as of now the Canadiens have far and away the best schedule in the league: eight games this period, with four of those coming against the Flames (three road), two against the Oilers on the road, and single home games against the Sens and Leafs.
New Jersey – Not the most attractive team for fantasy, the Devils nonetheless are a team to target over the next two weeks thanks to their schedule; New Jersey will play seven games, and while all but two come on the road, the games are still just a bus ride from home. They'll play two games against the Rangers, three in Pittsburgh, and two against the Flyers.
New York Rangers – The Rangers get seven games this period and have had some strong scoring recently out of all lines, and have scored 17 goals in their past five games. They'll get to play the Devils, Sabres and Flyers twice each – always a boon for production – as well as one game on Long Island.
Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Please note: not including Vancouver here even after their next two games got postponed, because their remaining schedule is a complete unknown. They're a team to avoid as of now – and probably should be avoided regardless, given how COVID affected Buffalo – but their schedule can change and make them appealing at any point.
Washington – With only five games this period, Washington has one of the worst schedules possible, especially given that four of their five games come on the road. The Capitals have broken out for 20 goals in their past five – although 14 came in just two games – and the acquisition of Anthony Mantha makes them look enticing, but just on volume they're tough to count on. The Caps will play single games in Philadelphia and Boston, and three games against the Islanders – two road, one home.
Chicago – The Blackhawks also have a short schedule with just five games, but unlike the Caps, the Blackhawks get four home games and against lesser competition: road games in Detroit and Nashville, followed by two home games against Nashville and one against Tampa Bay.
Detroit – Every other team has at least six games, so picking a third Leave 'Em team is mostly based on opposition, and the Red Wings are stuck playing the Stars four teams this period – two at home, two in Dallas – as well as games against the Blackhawks and Blue Jackets.
April 16 to April 22 |
Best Bets |
VGK 4.705 – Away ANH ANH – Home SJS SJS |
DAL 4.605 – Away DET- Home CBJ DET DET |
PIT 4.4 – Away BUF BUF – Home NJD NJD |
MTL 4.305 – Away EDM EDM – Home CGY OTT |
MIN 4.23 – Away ARI ARI – Home SJS SJS |
Steer Clear |
TOR 1.9475 – Away VAN WPG – Home |
WPG 2.2575 – Away – Home EDM TOR |
WSH 2.66 – Away PHI BOS NYI- Home |
STL 2.745 – Away ARI – Home COL COL |
LAK 2.9175 – Away COL COL – Home ANH |
April 17 to April 23 |
Best Bets |
NYR 5.2025 – Away NJD NYI – Home NJD PHI PHI |
BUF 4.7775 – Home PIT PIT BOS BOS BOS |
DAL 4.605 – Away DET – Home CBJ DET DET |
PIT 4.4 – Away BUF BUF – Home NJD NJD |
CHI 4.3425 – Away DET NSH – Home NSH NSH |
Steer Clear |
ANH 2.095 – Away LAK – Home VGK |
WSH 2.66 – Away PHI BOS NYI – Home |
STL 2.745 – Away ARI – Home COL COL |
COL 2.865 – Away STL STL – Home LAK |
TOR 2.8975 – Away VAN WPG WPG- Home |
April 18 to April 24 |
Best Bets |
DAL 4.8 – Away DET DET- Home DET DET |
VAN 4.725 – Home TOR CGY OTT OTT |
VGK 4.705 – Away ANH ANH- Home SJS SJS |
PIT 4.51 – Away BUF – Home NJD NJD NJD |
CGY 4.4625 – Away VAN – Home OTT MTL MTL |
Steer Clear |
EDM 2.205 – Away – Home MTL MTL |
WSH 2.6125 – Away BOS NYI NYI- Home |
STL 2.835 – Away – Home COL COL COL |
TBL 2.94 – Away – Home CAR CAR CBJ |
OTT 2.945 – Away CGY VAN VAN- Home |
April 19 to April 25 |
Best Bets |
DAL 4.8 – Away DET DET – Home DET DET |
VAN 4.725 – Home TOR CGY OTT OTT |
CGY 4.4625 – Away VAN – Home OTT MTL MTL |
PIT 4.3575 – Away – Home NJD NJD NJD BOS |
NYR 4.1575 – Away NYI – Home PHI PHI BUF |
Steer Clear |
WSH 1.805 – Away NYI NYI – Home |
ANH 2.095 – Away LAK – Home VGK |
EDM 2.205 – Away – Home MTL MTL |
COL 2.565 – Away STL STL STL – Home |
STL 2.835 – Away – Home COL COL COL |
April 20 to April 26 |
Best Bets |
VAN 4.71 – Away OTT- Home CGY OTT OTT |
DAL 4.5375 – Away DET DET – Home DET CAR |
LAK 4.515 – Away – Home ANH MIN ARI ANH |
WPG 4.5675 – Home TOR TOR TOR EDM |
PIT 4.3575 – Away – Home NJD NJD NJD BOS |
Steer Clear |
WSH 1.805 – Away NYI NYI – Home |
EDM 2.0525 – Away WPG- Home MTL |
CHI 2.205 – Away – Home NSH NSH |
DET 2.745 – Away DAL – Home DAL DAL |
CBJ 2.85 – Away FLA TBL TBL – Home |
April 21 to April 27 |
Best Bets |
VAN 4.71 – Away OTT – Home CGY OTT OTT |
WPG 4.5675 – Home TOR TOR TOR EDM |
NYR 4.41 – Away – Home PHI PHI BUF BUF |
NSH 4.4 – Away CHI CHI – Home FLA FLA |
CGY 4.305 – Away VAN – Home MTL MTL MTL |
Steer Clear |
EDM 2.0525 – Away WPG – Home MTL |
ANH 2.095 – Away LAK – Home VGK |
COL 2.66 – Away STL STL VGK – Home |
DET 2.745 – Away CBJ- Home DAL DAL |
WSH 2.8025 – Away NYI NYI – Home NYI |
April 22 to April 28 |
Best Bets |
VAN 4.8 – Away OTT OTT- Home OTT OTT |
WPG 4.515 – Home TOR TOR EDM EDM |
LAK 4.515 – Away – Home MIN ARI ANH ANH |
NYR 4.41 – Away – Home PHI PHI BUF BUF |
DAL 4.275 – Away DET DET – Home CAR CAR |
Steer Clear |
EDM 1.9 – Away WPG WPG- Home |
CHI 2.1 – Away – Home NSH TBL |
DET 2.745 – Away CBJ – Home DAL DAL |
WSH 2.8025 – Away NYI NYI – Home NYI |
NJD 2.85 – Away PIT PIT PHI – Home |