21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2021-04-18

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. Well, it was a Trade Deadline Day. It certainly wasn’t as busy as some other deadline days, but we did have a few deals, most of the guys we thought would go actually did, and the Red Wings swung a monster trade late.

The biggest domino for Deadline Day fell in the middle of the night as Taylor Hall was traded from Buffalo to Boston, with a second-round pick and Anders Bjork going the other way. You can read Dobber’s take on the trade here. (apr13)

2. The one I really want to talk about is, of course, Jakub Vrana. Anyone who has read my stuff knows I am enamoured with the kid’s hockey skills. This has been the case for a while.  I won’t extoll all the virtues of one J. Vrana; I have done that in dozens of articles over nearly a half-dozen years now. Just search his name in our database and you’ll see all my articles talking about him. Just know that I truly believe with the right line mates and deployment, he can be a top-10 offensive winger in the league.

The problem, as it always is with anyone in Detroit, is Jeff Blashill. We are currently enduring a season where he refused to play Mantha-Larkin together for any meaningful length of time, both on the PP and at 5-on-5. I am not sure the reason for that, but Blashill is not a fantasy-friendly coach. I like this move for Vrana because he has a clear line to 18 minutes a night with Larkin. I don’t like this move for Vrana because his success now hinges on Jeff Blashill succeeding, and that terrifies me.

Regardless, the Wings made a solid move and the Caps get a bona fide top-line winger for the near future. I would say it was good business for both sides. Just please, PLEASE, Jeff, just let Vrana cook. Just… just leave him alone. (apr13)

3. A couple notable waiver claims, which isn’t something we talk about often. First, the Sens claimed Victor Mete off waivers. So, what are the Sens getting? Depends who you ask. I am a Habs fan. As such, I probably have rose-coloured glasses here. I believe Mete still is capable of being a top-4 puck-moving defenceman. He has positive impacts at both ends over the last three seasons, is very good at jumping in the rush and creating controlled entries, but it hasn’t translated to big results: his points rate isn’t far off from Brett Kulak‘s and his expected goal share is the lowest among all regular Montreal blue liners the last three years.

He will get a shot in Ottawa, but he’s not going into a great situation. The team’s rebuild is still fully underway, as evidenced by their likely trip to the Draft Lottery again this year. I have belief in Mete’s abilities and this was a great claim by the Sens. I just worry about his supporting cast. Regardless, this is a great bet by Ottawa, and he immediately becomes an everyday player for the team. I just don’t think there’s much fantasy value here just yet. It will take time. (apr13)

4. The other claim of interest is Sami Vatanen. He was claimed off waivers by Dallas. I am not sure there’s much fantasy value here. He was a guy that put 35-point seasons up before but that was with heavy power-play usage. He’ll be going to a team with Miro Heiskanen, John Klingberg, and Esa Lindell. Without those PP minutes, his point totals crater (as they have the last few years) and he doesn’t bring much in peripherals. He could be fine depth in deeper leagues, but he’s of no interest in 12-teamers. (apr13)

5. The Leafs toughened up and added a lot of veteran experience in the offseason, but they were still just a little lacking in both areas up front, their goaltending still has some off nights (and injury concerns), and their depth defensemen could stand to be upgraded. But Nick Foligno sure solves the first problem – and in a big way (breakdown here). (apr12)

6. It doesn’t look like there will be a spot on the wing in the top-six for Sam Bennett, especially with Nikita Gusev also hoping to secure a spot. That means it’s very possible he becomes the second line centre for the Panthers, as Dobber alluded to here. However, Bennett may then take over a bit more of a defensive role for the Panthers. His stock may have risen in the move to Florida, but keep your expectations reasonable. (apr14)

7. One note on a trade that wasn’t made: I have been waiting all season for the Lightning to upgrade their goaltending, and they passed the deadline without a move. Curtis McElhinney then looked terrible in his outing last night as the Predators put up a touchdown on him. Colorado missed their shot at a cup last year due to injuries in net, and I would hate to see the Lightning deal with the same fate in their chase for back-to-back titles. (apr14)

8. To add to Ian’s breakdown of the Nikita Gusev signing: I honestly believe that he is a talented player. Potentially a star. He may have issues defensively, and perhaps even some in terms of work ethic. But so does Patrik Laine – and Laine can do whatever he wants without getting scratched for five games. All he needs is a true chance. No third line stuff. No 12-minutes of ice time crap with Tommy Stonehands and Jimmy Lunchbox. A real, legit chance. (apr12)

9. Even though Tuukka Rask returned earlier this week, the Bruins still need another one of their young goalies since Jaroslav Halak is on the COVID list. That means that Jeremy Swayman still has value in fantasy leagues, and he was able to deliver on Friday with a 25-save shutout of the Islanders, the first of his career.

The 22-year-old Swayman is proving that he can handle the NHL game so far with quality starts in four of his five games, a 1.78 GAA, and .938 SV%. The Bruins’ goaltending future seems to be in good hands with Swayman and Dan Vladar. Rask or Halak could leave as free agents (or Rask could retire as has been speculated), so Swayman’s chances to be on the Bruins roster full-time next season appear to be very good. (apr17)

10. The Jets have signed Adam Lowry to a five-year contract extension worth $3.25 million per season. Lowry is scoring near his career high this season (20 points in 44 games), but he’s an important part of the Jets’ bottom 6. In fantasy leagues, he has reached at least 100 hits and 300 faceoffs won in each of his seven NHL seasons. Lowry’s 132 hits and 309 faceoffs won both lead the Jets this season, so he has fantasy value in the right type of league.

From a salary cap perspective, this contract doesn’t seem ideal given Lowry’s role on the team. This is not to disparage a player like Lowry, and this contract isn’t a back breaker in terms of amount. The five-year term seems a bit concerning, but not unlike what Lowry might receive if he were to become a free agent. (apr17)

11. The Top 100 Roto Rankings are now posted, if you are looking for single-season, rest-of-season rankings. Feel free to leave feedback to be considered for the May rankings.

Yes, I know Roman Josi is an omission. He completely slipped my mind. I will be adding a separate Injured section to future rankings to account for injured stars, as it is very easy to overlook players who return from injury. At the time of Josi’s injury, it was unclear how long he’d be out, so I decided to remove him. Oftentimes I will remove a player from the rankings if the injury appears to be more than a day-to-day thing. Barring another injury or a major slump, look for Josi in the May rankings. In case you’re wondering why I just don’t add him in and quickly republish, I’ll need some time to determine where exactly to put him relative to other players. (apr16)

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12. After the rankings were posted, Steven Stamkos was placed on long-term injured reserve. So you can probably ignore his placement there. I kept him in not knowing how long the injury would last. He would be out until May 2, a date that is before the end of the regular season. Hang onto him if you can, but drop if you have no extra IR spots and your fantasy team is in week-to-week mode. (apr16)

13. If you’re waiting for Elias Pettersson to return, it may not happen this season. Canucks GM Jim Benning said on Friday there is no timeline for his return and brought up the possibility that may not return at all this season. Because of his injury, I pulled Pettersson from the Top 100 Roto Rankings. (apr17)

14. Even the most optimistic Leafs fans should have known that Jack Campbell‘s win streak wouldn’t last forever. Campbell was pulled on Thursday after allowing three goals on 10 shots in the first period. Newly acquired David Rittich took over, allowing just one goal on 17 shots. Campbell has now lost his last two starts, while he has posted Really Bad Starts in two of his last three games.

Related to that, it’s worth mentioning that Frederik Andersen returned to the ice on Thursday and will reportedly travel on the Leafs’ upcoming road trip. I don’t think the Leafs will necessarily rush him back with both Campbell and Big Save Dave now in the fold, but it’s a situation worth monitoring. This could easily be a hot hand situation, not just for the rest of the regular season but also into the playoffs. (apr16)

15. Jared Spurgeon was a guy I talked about in the DFS world about having a slow start and then likely turning his season around. Well, after just five points and zero goals in his first 25 games, he has five goals and 11 points in his last 16 games. Of course, he has a high shooting percentage, but he’s a guy that usually has high shooting percentages for a defenceman. After a slow start, he’s found his production again. Just in time to make a push for the Team Canada roster. (apr15)

16. It was announced on Wednesday that Jack Eichel will undergo surgery on his injury and will miss the rest of the 2020-21 season. He is expected to make a full recovery and be back for training camp of the 2021-22 season.

It kind of makes sense now that he was shooting 3.3 percent through 21 games, right? And why his line couldn’t really find their game after a strong January. It seems obvious he was never really healthy after the early parts of the season, and when you sprinkle in a little COVID, well, we see the results.

It does make me wonder about his value for next year. In my eyes, he’s still a first-round fantasy pick, but will other people see him that way? Taylor Hall is gone and that was a big reason for the Eichel excitement in the first place, up and above normal excitation levels. But, Hall is gone, and the team looks almost set for another rebuild.

What do we do with Eichel? There is probably enough talent still around for him to do well – he did have 78 points in 68 games in 2019-20 without Hall, after all. I still think he’ll be a first-round value for me but obviously I haven’t done projections for next year yet.  If Eichel were to fall to the second round of 12-team drafts next season, I would consider that a gift. He is 25 years old and doesn’t need superstars around him to produce. He will be just fine. (apr15)

17. Philipp Grubauer‘s amazing season has him currently projected in my system to earn over $8 million per season on his UFA deal. He likely won’t make quite that much, but he is entering unrestricted free agency at just the right time. He doesn't have the Stanley Cup on his resume (as a starter – only as a backup) that Jordan Binnington can claim, but otherwise he compares very favorably to the 27-year-old Blues netminder. At 29, Grubauer is also in his prime, and with a few contenders having some question marks in net, the German will have options. (apr14)

18. Marc-Andre Fleury tied and then passed Ed Belfour with his 485th career win this past week. He also picked up his 66th shutout of his career, and league-leading fifth of the season (tied with Philipp Grubauer). A Hall of Fame spot is a lock. This is a gift for dynasty league owners of Fleury. One last huge year for his fantasy value. You could have enjoyed many great years of help from him, and still dish him off right now for a king’s ransom. I don’t think he does anything like this again. What are the odds that Robin Lehner is injured next year too? (apr12)

19. Sometimes a shakeup from the usual is all that is needed. So it was a big deal when Darryl Sutter decided to split Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan earlier this week, instead moving Matthew Tkachuk onto Gaudreau’s line.

This line shakeup looks like it might hurt Monahan the most, but he broke a 12-game goalless drought in which he had recorded just three assists. His point-per-game average has fallen for the second consecutive season from 1.05 PTS/GP in 2018-19 to 0.69 PTS/GP last season to 0.60 PTS/GP this season. (apr11)

20. One of my best waiver-wire pickups of the season has been Jason Robertson, who is making a strong case for the Calder Trophy. Robertson has 12 goals and 32 points in 38 games and his ice time is up two minutes per game on what appears to be the Stars’ top line with Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz. Robertson currently sits second in rookie scoring, behind only Kirill Kaprizov (36 points). (apr11)

21. Connor Hellebuyck now has five consecutive 20-win seasons. In spite of the shortened season, it’s even possible that he gets to 30 wins for the fourth consecutive season. He continues to be one of the most reliable goalie volume options in fantasy leagues. (apr11)

Have a good week, folks be safe!!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JJ PETERKA BUF
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
MIRO HEISKANEN DAL
BRYAN RUST PIT
LUKE HUGHES N.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
JUUSE SAROS NSH
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
DAVID RITTICH L.A

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CGY Players
27.0 MATT CORONATO BLAKE COLEMAN MIKAEL BACKLUND
21.5 MARTIN POSPISIL NAZEM KADRI JONATHAN HUBERDEAU
14.6 CONNOR ZARY YEGOR SHARANGOVICH JAKOB PELLETIER

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