Capped: Big contracts we can’t stay away from
Logan Doyle
2021-04-22
We have all owned one of these contracts. Most of us own one right now, maybe two or even three. If you have more than three you either have an addiction you need help with or really poor judgement of player values. Either way, you'll find yourself sitting at the bottom of the standings.
I am not talking about the Loui Eriksson's or Jeff Skinner contracts that are complete anchors on a roster and offer production returns of literally pennies on the dollar. Those are contracts that if you're in a league that has rules on penalties for dropping a player they can almost single-handedly sink your team. I am talking more about those players that can't fully justify their salary yet we justify rostering them. Whether this is a player declining faster than expected or a veteran hanging on by a thread we've got reasons to keep them on the roster.
Here's a look at some of those guys we can't fully justify letting go but also can't fully justify hanging on to anymore based on their cap hit.
Shea Weber, Montreal Canadiens ($7.857M, 5 more years, Age 35)
The age pendulum seems to finally be catching up to 'old man' Weber. For the first time since 2007-08 he is averaging under .5 points per game. We're also starting to see a decline in his peripheral stats, hits, blocks, shots on goal are all declining on a per game average from previous years.
If you're in a multi-cat pool Weber has been a must-own for over a decade. With his fading stats that love affair is starting to recede. For the style of game he plays he has already defied the odds. We have seen it with Brent Seabrook, Wayne Simmonds, Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd; those bangers hit an early wall and their speed and production fall off before their peers. This hasn't really been the case with Weber. He's been able to adjust and maintain his high level of pay.
With all that said, owners are finally faced with the prospect of needing to move on. At the age of 35, it's hard to even recoup a mid to late draft pick for him or a middling prospect. It leaves the owner strapped with a large cap hit on a declining player.
He's been such a stalwart for so many years owners find it hard to move on. He can't justify his cap hit any longer. Yet it is hard to cut him lose at this point in time as he still gives over a hit and block a game and two shots on goal per game. Look no further than Mark Giordano to believe there's another season or two of strong fantasy value left in him. With five years left on his contract the pain will only become more real. This is a player owners will hang onto for too long. Nostalgia is a real thing.
Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens ($10.5M, 5 more years, Age 33)
The classic case of being rewarded for past performance versus current value.
It's been a few years since Price has been an elite level goalie. He has provided average goaltending over the last three years. He's mixed in periods of elite goaltending which keeps owners gripped hoping he'll return to that elite level, yet those periods are short lived. At 33 however, it is most likely his elite years are behind him.
There are enough Habs fans in hockey pools that you should be able to move Price if you're ready to move on.
The hope and desire for him to turn in one more Vezina-calibre season have owners clinging on to Price Montreal has hovered as a strong, average team over the past few seasons. Even when the team has been bad they have remained competitive.
He performs well enough to roster, yet nowhere near well enough to justify his $10.5M cap hit. This is a contract that is really going to hurt in two to three years. It's not a good contract now and it will only get worse. Yet, it's Carey Price and owners will continue to cling on to what he was versus what he is, which is an average fantasy option at best.
Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida Panthers ($10.5M, 5 more years, Age 32)
He is slightly cheaper, slightly younger and performing slightly better than Carey Price. That said, he's being wildly outplayed by his back up Chris Dreidger. Bobrovsky's goals against average ranks 37th in the NHL at 2.82 and his save percentage of .909 ranks 33rd among goalies with seven or more starts this season. These numbers come while being on a team chasing down not only first in their division but the President's Trophy.
I have been on both sides of the Bobrovsky allure. There is the side where he makes Vesa Toskala look like a Vezina-calibre goalie (yep pulling out THAT name from that hat) and then there's the other side of Bobrovsky where he looks like the best goalie in the world.
Florida has only seen small samples of the latter Bobrovsky in the past two years. The last time Bobrovsky had an extended elite period of performance was his 2017-18 season with Columbus.
If we cut Bobrovsky's salary in half he still wouldn't fully justify the cost right now. There is still enough value left in him with glimpses of elite level goaltending (for shorter and shorter periods of time each year) that we hang onto him. Like Price, we hang on to Bobrovsky more on the hopes he can give us more of the past than his real current value moving forward. Add in how good the Panthers have been and we'll continue to cling to Bobrovsky.
Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars ($9.5M, 4 more years, Age 30)
This is a player that has been hanging onto relevance for the last couple of years. He teased owners with his performance in the playoffs in 2019-20 to the Cup finals before reverting to his recent standard of underwhelming regular season production.
He is currently on an 82-game pace of 52 points which would be his third consecutive sub-60 point season. His hits are also way down this season, but this is possibly due to the condensed season and a bit of self preservation on Benn's part.
He's still a steadfast multi-cat performer that you won't find him on too many waiver-wires even with that large, looming cap hit. He's clearly not worth $9.5M to your fantasy team, but in multi-cat pools he provides such complete category coverage that he remains an important part to many fantasy rosters.
Matt Duchene, Nashville Predators ($8M, 5 more years, Age 30)
It just hasn't worked in Nashville. Or is it, Nashville just hasn't worked with Duchene? Either way Duchene has produced closer to expected levels of a third liner than a top six centre.
Duchene strikes one as the type of player that will remain reasonably productive into his early thirties. He is not overly physical and skates like the wind. Without taking loads of physical contact he should be able to rely on his speed to help him keep pace with the speed of the game moving forward.
And still, he finds himself on pace for the worst point per game average of his career. This is coming from a guy that has toyed with a point per game page only two seasons ago with Ottawa and Columbus.
In pools that count face-offs won or face-off percentage he's still an attractive asset. He is one of the top face off centers in the NHL.
It is hard to justify $8M for face-offs though. When you break down his point value he's providing 2.5 points per million. Ideally, you want ten points per million as your baseline return. This screams: yikes!
There just seems to be more for Duchene to give. I find it hard to fathom this is the downturn for him. With his numbers being so poor, coupled with his large cap hit a lot of owners will be looking to give him away this summer.
I see Duchene as a good buy-low opportunity. The cost to acquire should be significantly less than the potential return he still offers. He may not be worth $8M but if you can offset his salary by off-loading a second poor cap hit it makes owning him slightly easier to swallow. He still holds the allure of being capable of a 60- to 70-point season.
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Hope you enjoyed this look at players that can no longer justify their salaries but we can justify rostering at those salaries. Next week we'll flip the script and take a look at some of the best value salaries across the league.
Thanks for reading.
(all stats pulled from frozenpool.com, NHL.com & all salary cap information pulled from capfriendly.com)
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