Saturday’s Game Picks: Leafs-Jets Clash with North Division on the Line
Flip Livingstone
2021-04-24
Welcome back, folks. I had to hit the COVID list for a couple weeks, so apologies for leaving you hanging on the pick front. Back in the lab today and ready to serve you up some tasty trends and wagers for what is sure to be an exciting day loaded with hockey.
Obviously, with the playoffs closing in we are being blessed with postseason-type games on a nightly basis, making for much tighter contests and a tendency to see a good portion of matchups stay Under the number. Case in point, only one of last night's five games finished Over the set total.
Keep that in mind today when taking a look at the board, one that features 11 total games and a handful of tilts with playoff positioning at stake. From the Flames and Habs fighting for the last spot in the North, to Jets-Leafs, to the Hurricanes and Panthers locking horns with first place in the Central Division on the line, there really is no shortage of tantalizing options for you to throw down some of your hard-earned cash on.
Big day coming up with a great chance to push my season record above the .500 mark, so let's get it. Good luck and enjoy.
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2021 record:
Gold: 4-5
Silver: 6-3
Bronze: 4-5
Side bets: 12-15
Overall: 26-28
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Gold Pick
Montreal Canadiens @ Calgary Flames – Pick: Flames
A quick gander at the North Division standings and you don't exactly need to be a hockey expert to discern that the Montreal Canadiens hold an obvious edge over the Calgary Flames for the fourth and final postseason spot. A six-point cushion and a game in-hand should be enough for the Habs to squeak in and most likely face-off against the high-flying Maple Leafs in the first round – but don't tell that to the Flames, as a spirited Calgary team played a complete 60 minutes Friday night to close the gap on Montreal and send a message that they aren't done just yet.
I've said it countless times before and I can't shy away from it now: I obviously love it when Montreal struggles, but in this case, I think predicting another tough game for them is justified. Not only are the Canadiens dealing with injuries to key pieces in Carey Price and Brendan Gallagher (Jonathan Drouin is also handling a non-COVID sickness), but they've struggled against the Flames this season, earning only one win over their last six meetings.
Another reason why I like Montreal to take another L tonight is they are not a good road team, especially when playing in Cowtown. The Habs own a lousy 4-11 road record over their last 15 games overall and a crooked 5-11 in their last 16 at the Saddledome.
Like I said above, I still think Montreal holds it down and gets into the playoffs, but I have a feeling it's going to come right down to the wire, thanks in large part to a resurgence from Calgary's top line and a few more wins from this Flames group down the stretch. Double-check starting netminders before laying a wager here, as both Jake Allen for Montreal and Jacob Markstrom for Calgary played last night. Either way, the Flames close the gap once more for my Gold Pick of the week.
Silver Pick
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Winnipeg Jets (Over/Under 6.5) – Pick: Under
Taking an Under is usually a bit of a bold bet in today's NHL, especially when a matchup features the top-six talent of two groups like Winnipeg and Toronto. But I'm feeling it tonight in what is sure to be playoff-type hockey from start to finish.
The Leafs and Jets sit seventh and ninth in league scoring, respectively, and the last two tilts between these two have seen goals a plenty (15 total, to be exact). However, if you know anything about Connor Hellebuyck and his Vezina-quality resume, you know the man doesn't have bad back-to-back games very often. Sprinkle in the fact that the North Division title is basically on the line tonight and I can see this game finishing in 4-2 or 3-2 fashion. Any way you slice it, this contest will be tight, and I have a feeling, also low-scoring.
If Jack Campbell plays like he did during his record-setting win streak and Hellebuyck bounces back and plays his regular game, you can lock in that this one stays under the number, especially if you can get it online somewhere at 6.5 or tease it up on the alternate total to 7 or 7.5. Leafs-Jets stays Under for my Silver play.
Bronze Pick
Minnesota Wild @ San Jose Sharks – Pick: Wild
I know I've bet on the Wild a few times before, but they are a seriously underrated team that deserves a lot more respect. Take this in: very quietly Minny is still in the mix for the West Division crown sitting only three points back of Colorado and five adrift of Vegas. Those are two very legitimate Stanley Cup threats. So maybe it's time to start talking about the Wild in the same thread? That's likely a tad bold, but it doesn't change the point that they are very much for real. Oh, did I mention they are one of the hottest teams in the show right now? Six consecutive wins has Minny sitting pretty in third place in the West with a comfortable hold on a postseason spot.
As for the Sharks, well, at least San Jose is nice this time of year? In all seriousness the Sharks are a complete mess, as a 2-7-1 record over their last 10 has seen the club slip into obscurity and out of a good shot at the playoffs.
As usual, I am riding the hot hand and taking the better team with a lot more to play for with the Wild. Minnesota played last night to a 4-2 victory over the Kings, so it's more than likely that rookie backstop Kaapo Kahkonen will be manning the blue paint, but he's been solid this year to the tune of a 13-7-0 record and 2.66 goals-against average.
The Wild keep rolling against a lackluster Sharks group who are struggling to score goals, book it.
Side Bets
Arizona Coyotes @ L.A. Kings (Over/Under 5.5) – Pick: Under
Dallas Stars @ Detroit Red Wings – Pick: Stars
Maple Leafs @ Winnipeg Jets – Pick: Jets +1.5
Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at such outlets as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @FlipLivingstone and @Flips_Picks.