Wild West: Disappointing Players for Points-Only Poolies
Grant Campbell
2021-04-26
Weekly Western Leaders (to April 25th, 2021) – in bold leads the NHL
Goals – 26 – Mikko Rantanen – Colorado (34 – Auston Matthews)
Assists – 52 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton
Primary Assists – 38 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton
Secondary Assists – 22 – Tyson Barrie – Edmonton (22 – Adam Fox)
Points – 77 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton
PPP – 28 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton
Shots on Goal – 172 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado (194 – Brady Tkachuk)
Shooting % (min 48 SOG) – 24.6 – Joonas Donskoi – Colorado
PIM – 68 – Mathieu Olivier – Nashville (69 – Max Domi)
Best plus/minus – plus 28 – Alec Martinez – Vegas
Worst plus/minus – minus 19 – Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Arizona (minus 34 – Rasmus Dahlin)
Hits – 156 – Josh Archibald – Edmonton (218 – Radko Gudas)
Blocked shots – 142 – Alec Martinez – Vegas
FOW – 580 – Ryan O’Reilly – St. Louis (602 – Patrice Bergeron)
FOL – 420 – Bo Horvat – Vancouver, Christian Dvorak – Arizona (505 – Sidney Crosby)
FO% (min 220 FO) – 60.8 – Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare – Colorado (61.6 Patrice Bergeron)
Giveaways – 60 – Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton (78 – Thomas Chabot)
Takeaways – 45– Mark Stone – Vegas (52 – Jack Hughes)
Highest Skater GAR (goals above replacement) – 20.2 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton
Lowest Skater GAR – minus 6.4 – Kurtis MacDermid – Los Angeles (minus 6.5 – Nikita Gusev)
Highest xGAR (expected goals above replacement) – 20.0 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton, (22.4 – Auston Matthews)
Lowest xGAR – minus 8.3 – Duncan Keith – Chicago
Highest CF% (min 28 GP) – 62.8 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado
Lowest CF% (min 28 GP) – 37.5 – Devin Shore – Edmonton
Highest PDO (min 28 GP) – 108.7 – Carson Soucy – Minnesota
Lowest PDO (min 28 GP) – 92.4 – Robert Bortuzzo – St. Louis (91.8 – Nolan Patrick)
Goalie wins – 25 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado (28 – Andrei Vasilevskiy)
Save percentage (min 19 starts) – 92.6 – Juuse Saros – Nashville, Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (93.0 – Alex Nedeljkovic)
Quality starts – 22 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado, Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (22 – Andrei Vasilevskiy)
Quality start % (min 19 starts) – 71.0 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas
Highest Goalie GAR – 22.4 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (26.4 – Andrei Vasilevskiy)
Lowest Goalie GAR – minus 8.3 – Ville Husso – St. Louis (minus 16.7 – Carter Hart)
Shutouts – 5 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado, Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (5 – Semyon Varlamov – NY Islanders)
All stats above from Dobber's Frozen Tools and www.evolvinghockey.com
I was looking at my points-only pool where I am battling with a few points separating first and third and was perusing my team and the others and was trying to pinpoint where I and other teams went wrong. I thought I would look at what the expectation of each pick was compared to the result. I don't want to include players that have had long-term injuries, but focus more on the players that just haven't performed to expectation. There is a good chance if you have more than two of these players you are not winning your pool.
I only looked at my points-only pool so I'm sure there will be a lot of different ADP out there, but I'm pretty sure most of these players are in and around the same draft positions.
Kevin Fiala – Minnesota
My most disappointing pick in my pool is Fiala who was picked in the 4th round with the 47th overall pick (Dobber had him 41st overall). There is hope that he will finish the year out strong, but he has 32 points on the season where the average point production for this round is between 38-41 points. Not a disaster of a pick by any means but I like to be on the high side of the average more often than not.
Matt Duchene – Nashville
There are injuries at play with Duchene for sure, but he has still played 27 games with only nine points and his injury was taken into account as he was picked in the 8th round 102nd overall (Dobber 88th). He should be around 32-33 points in 56 games at the very least which is a 0.57 to 0.59 pts/game pace, not the 0.33 he has produced.
Reilly Smith – Vegas
Smith had 27 goals and 54 points last season in 71 games (0.76 pts/game) and has had at least 50 points or more in four of the five past seasons. He was picked in the 7th round, 88th overall (Dobber 99th) and was expected to have about 32-33 points now. He has a career-low of 0.36 pts/game and only has 16 points in 44 games.
Dylan Strome – Chicago
Strome was passed over quite a bit in our pool and was picked in the 12th round 135th overall (Dobber 86th) but the expectations are still about 26-27 points (0.58 pts/game) for that pick at this time. Strome has missed some games and has played 34 games but has only 13 points (0.38). Healthy or not, he was a pick that hurt this team this season.
Jaden Schwartz – St. Louis
Schwartz was picked in the 7th round of my pool with the 79th overall pick (Dobber 129th and a bandaid boy). The owner should have heeded Dobber's advice as not only has Schwartz struggled to stay healthy but he hasn't produced nearly as much as was expected with this pick. He has 16 points in 30 games (0.53 pts/game) whereas this pick should be about 0.70 pts/game.
Ryan Johansen – Nashville
Johansen slipped to the 12th round of our pool and was picked with the 138th overall pick (Dobber 92nd). A 12th round pick should have 26-27 points currently and Johansen has 18 points in 41 games. The safe last-round pick proves to not be safe.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Edmonton
Nugent-Hopkins went a little earlier in our pool as he was picked in the 3rd round, 32nd overall (Dobber 47th). This round has averaged 42-44 points so far and Nugent-Hopkins has 29 points in 41 games. Losing 13 to 15 points in a round is a large number to make up with other players and more than likely has put this team out of the top three.
Erik Karlsson – San Jose
There was a consensus pre-season that Karlsson would probably not play more than 80% of the games this season and most people took this into account. Our pool had him picked in the 9th round, 104th overall (Dobber 90th overall). Karlsson has surprised everyone and has played 43 of 47 games so far, but unfortunately, his point production has cratered to only 0.42 per game good for 18 points where the average to date in this round is 29-30 (0.62).
Alex Pietrangelo – Vegas
Pietrangelo went very early in our pool in the 7th round, 81st overall (Dobber 153rd) and as a result, the owner of this pick was expecting 32-33 (0.71 pts/game) points from Pietrangelo by now but between a few injuries and lack of production he only has 16 points in 32 games (0.50).
Zach Parise – Minnesota
Parise was perhaps deemed a safe pick as he went in the 11th round 128th overall (Dobber 185th) in our pool, which averages about 27 or 28 points to date. Parise has missed a few games but has played 39 games but only has 18 points. Another safe veteran picked in the late rounds, proving to not be so safe.
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