It seems like just yesterday my first in-season Mailbag was released, and yet we've already reached the final regular season mailbag. The good news is there are still plenty of questions touching upon a number of players, with the mailbag answers giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it to me and as well as the details you should provide. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Craig)

I'm in a standard league with goalie stats counted being: 0.5 for each game started, 2 for each win, -1 for each loss, -1 for each goal against, 0.2 for each save, and 2 for each shutout in addition to the 2 points received for winning the game. In short, goalies who play a lot are worth a lot. Looking ahead to 2021-22, and based on these categories, how would you rank these goalies: Alex Nedeljkovic, Ilya Sorokin, Jack Campbell, Cal Petersen, Cam Talbot.

Let's start with Campbell, who's signed through next season, and who some had been saying could be the #1 goalie in Toronto for 2021-22. I'm here to tell you that won't happen. Not…..a……..chance. Even before he came back to earth recently (three or more goals allowed in stretch of six of seven games), it's impossible to ignore the reality that Campbell will be in his age 30 season in 2021-22 and has been a huge disappointment since he was picked 11th overall in 2010. Is there a world in which Toronto, the hockey hub of the universe, anoints him its #1 goalie? Think of it this way – does the head cheerleader go to the prom with the back-up QB who played well while the star was injured? No – she goes with the star quarterback who has the proven track record. The media and fans in Toronto would never let the team live it down if it turned the starting reins over to Campbell. What this run has earned Campbell is the back-up job for next season, and my guess is the Leafs sign Philipp Grubauer or trade for Marc-Andre Fleury or Semyon Varlamov to be the 2021-22 starter.

Sorokin is likely the most talented of the bunch; but as noted in my most recent Forum Buzz column, playing for Barry Trotz means you're not going to be a workhorse in net, no matter how well you play. That's especially the case when Semyon Varlamov – assuming he's not dealt to Toronto – is earning $5M and playing great too.

Nedeljkovic is in an excellent spot, as both Petr Mrazek and James Reimer are UFAs, and at least one of them won't be brought back. Unless the Hurricanes sign a UFA such as Grubauer, Frederick Andersen, or Antti Raanta, I would expect Nedeljkovic to enter next season with a shot to be a 1A/1B.

Petersen has shown that his strong play at the end of 2019-20 was not a fluke, and has earned a higher percentage of starts, including, as I write this, 15 of the last 21 LA games, which would translate to a rate of 58 starts over a full season. I'd expect Peterson to be a true #1 next season and start 55+ games for the Kings, who don't have the image issue Toronto does and have already shown their willingness to not continue to play Jonathan Quick despite his much higher price tag.

Talbot has had a strong season, but is being pushed by Kaapo Kahkonen, such that like Sorokin he might not be a true #1 netminder until/unless Kahkonen falters. In short, as long as Talbot and Kahkonen are both in the Minnesota picture, Talbot's value takes a hit ala Sorokin's in Long Island.

This is close, with all of them except Campbell potentially able to rise to be #1 goalie but also just as much chance to end up starting no more than 30-40 games. Given what I see as most likely to unfold, I've got Petersen narrowly in first place, Sorokin second (easily in first if Varlamov is dealt), Nedelkovic in third, Talbot fourth, and Campbell last. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Eric)

I'm in a 12 team keep 7 league with skater categories of G, A, PPPts, HIT, BLK, +/- and PIM. I’m preparing for the future while trying to stay competitive. I’ve narrowed my final keeper to either Drake Batherson or Martin Necas. I know Batherson is a potential multi-cat stud, but it looks as though Necas might be the better scorer. Whomever I don’t keep will be dangled in hopes of trading for a draft pick upgrade. Alternatively I could try to trade Elias Pettersson for a keeper with more value than either of Necas or Batherson and risk trying to re-draft them. What's the best course of action here?

The time to trade Pettersson was before this season, as between his subpar play and injury his value has never been lower. Still, it can't hurt to put his name out there, as someone might be smitten with him enough to pay good value. While you're at it, you could offer Batherson or Necas with Pettersson in hopes of getting two players back, one of whom likely will have less potential than Pettersson but the other who'd hopefully would be an upgrade over Batherson or Necas, solving your keeper dilemma.

If it does come down to Batherson or Necas, and without knowing more about your other potential keepers, I go with Batherson. The decision boils down to Batherson not only having a good bit more HIT+BLK value versus Necas, but also being locked into the Ottawa PP1 and performing extremely well with the man advantage despite Ottawa having one of the league's worst PP conversion rates. That all having been said, despite playing PP2 minutes Necas has 11 PPPts while taking the ice for the 136th most PPTOI among all forwards, yet is tied for 56th in PPPts, so he's very good in that area as well.

Both have spectacular IPPs; however, Batherson is seemingly a more explosive scorer. After all, he has more multi-point games (ten) than Necas (nine) despite playing for a worse team (131 goals vs. 153), having seven fewer overall points, and seeing about a minute less TOI per game. Or to put it another way, as of now Necas is more consistent; but that's likely something Batherson should be able to grow into as he and his teammates improve. So I'm giving a narrow edge here to Batherson due to his PP acumen, better multi-cat stats, and his already demonstrated explosive scoring.

Don't let this be seen as an indictment of Necas though, as Batherson's edge is small and Necas looks to have a bright future as well. In fact, a case could be made to trade Pettersson for picks instead and then you'd get to keep both Batherson and Necas, each of whom might just end up panning out better than Pettersson.  Good luck!

Question #3 (from Karl)

I have five questions, so shorter answers to each will be fine.

1- What's your take on Ondrej Kase? He's almost assuredly going to be a fixture on L2 with David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk when healthy. Over an 82 season what do you see as a conservative stat line? What's his absolute upside?

2- Where do you see Rickard Rakell's career going from here? Would he do better or worse on a new team if, as rumored, he gets traded? Can he drive a line/be a star player?

3- What are your thoughts on Rasmus Kupari? Will he be able to break through, especially given the stockpile of young talent in the LA system?

4- Where do you stand on Connor McMichael? What's his floor/ceiling? Is it safe to say owners are in for a long wait considering the way Washington eases in young talent?

5- I will have pick 6-8 in our entry draft next season and badly need rearguard depth. The problem is the four "can't miss" defensemen (Owen Power, Simon Edvinsson, Brandt Clarke, Luke Hughes) might all be gone by when I pick. If not, should I take one of them? If so, do I reach for a rearguard (maybe Scott Morrow?) or take the best player available, even if it's not a defenseman?

I'm surprised Kase is still well regarded by as many poolies as he is. Name another player who's been hurt as often as he has yet managed to turn things around and become a fantasy asset at age 26+? The only one who comes to mind is Andrew Shaw, and he had one great season before coming back to earth in terms of production and injuries. I'd say the ceiling for Kase is close to what Martin Hanzal, another Kase-like Band-Aid boy, did, which is produce a couple of 50-55 point seasons before injuries took a cumulative toll. To me the closest comparison to Kase might be Sven Baertschi, who was thought to be a rising star until injuries and uneven play left him seemingly gone from the NHL by age 27. If reading those names isn't enough to scare you away from Kase, then best of luck with him in your league(s).

Rakell is a low risk, decent reward target for deep keepers, as even if he's not traded this summer he'll most likely be dealt before the end of 2021-22, after which he's a UFA. What I like is although he's seen his scoring drop in recent seasons, he's still shooting a lot and his IPP has been above 70% in this and two of his previous four seasons, and in the other two was 64.2% and 64.6%, giving hope that if put into the right situation he could excel. Could he be a "star" player? Doubtful; however, he could be a solid top sixer who, could post 60-65 points if he's paired with a talented centre, with an outside shot at 70+ if all goes as well as possible.

Kupari is indeed one of many Kings prospects brimming with talent, but often overlooked in favor of the likes of Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, and Gabriel Vilardi. All four are natural centers, and the key to which of the four will succeed the most, or at least soonest, might be whether they can be shifted to wing. With Kupari being mostly an assists-heavy scorer, he's less likely to fit a winger mold as compared to the others. Also, whether deserved or not, Turcotte and Byfield have "golden boy" status because of how early they were drafted, and Vilardi will have an advantage due to his NHL experience. As such, Kupari could end up in the bottom six for a while, or stuck in the AHL, neither of which would not be ideal. In sum, my thoughts are he could be very good, but the LA forward prospect logjam might hold him back.

With the Washington forward core all age 33-35, it might be McMichael gets a chance to step up soon. Yes, we see what happened with Jakub Vrana this season before he was dished; but Vrana's issue wasn't talent or opportunity, but rather failure to buy into the system. On the other hand, McMichael strikes me as a "team" guy, as evidenced by him producing over a point per game as an assistant captain at the WJC. It's tough to say what McMichael's specific ceiling might be. He's probably not superstar material, but perhaps could rise to be a very solid producer.

For the last question, I'm the wrong guy to ask about pre-draft prospects. That having been said, d-men picked early have fared well of late, although there look to be some possible busts shaping up from 2016 and 2015, meaning they're not always locks. Keep in mind also that just because a defenseman is picked early in the NHL draft doesn't mean he'll be grabbed in that spot in fantasy drafts, as many a GM will be reluctant to pass on a forward who could make an impact sooner. If you can get one of those "big four" d-men then I'd say go ahead and grab him; if not, take the best player available. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Jesse)

I recently started co-managing a 10-team full dynasty points league with spots for: 8F, 4D, 7 bench and 8 prospects. Defensemen points count double. Prospects are allowed to remain “prospects” as long as the manager likes; however, once they are called up they cannot regain their prospect status.

We have decided to embark upon a full rebuild, so all moves are with the future in mind. I’m new to being in a league where prospects are kept and would like some advice on a number of prospects and whether you think they have the potential to become consistent offensive contributors in the future.

All players under 25 on our team, including prospects, are: Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, Conor Garland, Dominik Kubalik, Kevin Labanc, Sam Reinhart, Oliver Wahlstrom, Rasmus Andersson, Jakob Chychrun, Rasmus Dahlin, Kevin Fiala, Jesse Puljujarvi, Matthew Boldy, Max Comtois, Alexis Lafreniere, Eeli Tolvanen, Gabriel Vilardi, Filip Zadina, John Marino, Moritz Seider. Obviously there is a range of ages and career stages in this list, with the likes of Boeser and Connor already being fairly established stars and Lafreniere and Dahlin being top tier prospects.

Who would you trade as part of our rebuild? Do you think any of the lesser established players are likely to command more value now than later – that is, do you think any of these prospects will be busts or will disappoint versus expectations? Who would be the player around which you'd build the team for the future? If possible, please "tier" the players and then rank them within their tiers and then indicate whether they should be kept or traded.

Of Boeser and Connor, I like keeping Boeser and trading Connor. For one, Connor's goal scoring prowess is inconsequential in a points-only league. I also think Connor's ceiling is at or near where he's scoring now, as I spelled out when I covered him in a Goldipucks column. I gave thoughts on Boeser in my March Mailbag, where I noted that through his age 22 season (i.e., 2019-20) he averaged above a cumulative 0.8 points, 0.35 goals and 2.9 SOG per game. Going back to 2000-01, the list of pure wingers who met each of the same criteria were Ilya Kovalchuk, Alex Ovechkin, Taylor Hall, David Pastrnak, and Patrik Laine. That's a pretty nice group. I also think Boeser is finding his game, as even though he's shooting less his SH% is up. To me, that shows maturity, and bodes well for his future. There's also the reality that Boeser wouldn't fetch nearly as much as Connor. Hold Boeser; deal away Connor.

I'd also try to deal Labanc, as he's someone who poolies think still has the potential to make waves but in whom I have little trust to be more than a marginal fantasy asset. He isn't explosive and also does not possess of a deft scoring touch. Get rid of him before that becomes apparent to everyone else. And if you can manage to talk someone into taking Marino, on the basis of the deal he signed this offseason and his productive 2019-20, do so, as I think he's seemingly not as talented as was thought. Additionally, the Pittsburgh core is aging, which won't prop him up.

With his strong play of late, Reinhart might fetch a decent return. Don't think twice about trading him, as although he's run hot like this in the past he apparently doesn't have what it takes to put together a truly solid entire season.  Get whatever you can for Puljujarvi, who I think has come close to using up his nine NHL lives but who might somehow get you something due to the tantalizing prospect of him ending up with Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl. Even with the defenseman scoring bonus, I'd dish Andersson, who was handed the role of #1 defenseman and PP QB but couldn't run with it, and who I see as never being more than a 40 point d-man, if even that. The ideal time to have traded him was in the early part of this season, but chances are you still could get something in return.

As for the rest of your roster, I think all are worth keeping for now and reassessing during and after the 2021-22 campaign. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Mike)

I'm in a 12-team keeper league. We have 25 players per roster: 20 majors, and 5 minors, plus 2 IR spots. We drop 10 at the end of every season and redraft before the season starts. Skater categories are G, A, +/-, PPPts, PIM, and SOG. Players can be in the minors until >164 NHL games played. Starting line-ups consist of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4F, 4D, 3G with min/max games allowed limits. Here is my roster:

My roster is: Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin, Steven Stamkos, J.T. Miller, Sebastian Aho, Jesse Puljujarvi, Joe Thornton, Brayden Schenn, Mike Hoffman, Jeff Petry, Aaron Ekblad, Samuel Girard, Kailer Yamamoto, Quinn Hughes, Jack Quinn, Eeli Tolvanen, Ville Heinola, Joel Kiviranta, K’Andre Miller, Vitek Vanecek, Phillipp Grubauer, Cam Talbot, Darcy Kuemper, Antti Raanta, Pavel Francouz. Which ten do you see as my drops? From where I sit, I figure they should be Thornton, Hoffman, Francouz, Raanta, Miller, Girard, Kiviranta, Schenn, Kuemper, Talbot, Puljujarvi? Do you agree?

Quick note – you actually listed 11 drops, not ten. At first glance, I spot only Kiviranta, Thornton, and Puljujarvi as "no brainer" drops. On the flip side, the players to be kept for sure would be McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon, Stamkos, Miller, Aho, Hughes (especially since he still qualifies as a minors player for the time being), and Grubauer, who'll either re-sign with the Avs or get a huge UFA deal to be "the guy" on a team, perhaps Toronto or Carolina. That leaves 16 players and seven cuts still to be made.

You can only carry five minors guys, so in addition to Hughes, which four would be the others? I like keeping Vanecek and Francouz as minors guys, as although this has been a lost season for Francouz he could factor into the goalie picture for 2021-22 if the Avs don't get a big name #1 guy, and Vanacek is going to be at worst a 1B for the Caps or Seattle. For the other two minors spots, I like Tolvanen, who's shown a lot, and Yamamoto, who, despite playing poorly, seems to be entrenched within the Edmonton top six. So that means Miller, Quinn, and Heinola would be drops, bringing the total drops to six.

Who should be the other four drops? Your defensemen are all worthy of being kept, and you do start four of them versus only ten total forwards, so I'm okay keeping Petry, Ekblad and Girard. Considering that four of your 11 drops were goalies and those included Talbot and Raanta, I'm fine with dropping them in view of the uncertainty in Minnesota and Raanta being a band-aid boy. As such, the last two drops would be Schenn and Hoffman, both of whom were on your drops list as well. Each should be a safe redraft. So in the end I have seven of the same drops as you, but am keeping Francouz, Girard and Kuemper rather than Heinola and Quinn. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Jeffery)

What's the story with Nikita Gusev? Is he as bad as he's been this season, or is he being misused? Can he succeed on another team, or do you see going back to Russia rather than signing with another NHL team as a UFA this summer?

Like most, I did not expect Gusev to struggle as he has this season, what with ending 2019-20 with 11 points in his final ten games, with seven of those points coming with the man advantage. That helped lift him to an 82-game scoring rate of 55 points. With the Devils not having a surplus of top talent, the thinking was Gusev would see an expanded role in 2020-21 and be able to build upon his success after acclimating to the NHL and due to being 28 years old, i.e., right in the midst of his prime.

Instead, Gusev's 2020-21 had been an unmitigated disaster, with him being scratched frequently and then ultimately waived before inking a deal to finish the season with the Panthers. When looking at his ice times with New Jersey, they weren't much worse than 2019-20, and his SOG rate was barely lower. Also, through the first half of the year his linemates were still decent. The blame can't rest entirely on the Devils, as Gusev's play didn't do him any favors.

A UFA after this season, do I think Gusev will stay in the US? Quite possibly no, as he could traipse back to Russia and earn top dollar playing there notwithstanding his horrendous 2020-21 in the NHL. If he does stay in the NHL though, is there any hope? Early returns from his time with Florida have been, at best, mixed. He's been given ample ice time at ES and on the PP, with Aleksander Barkov centering him, yet he only posted three points in his first six games, with his ice time dropping substantially in his sixth contest. His SOG rate was strong, with three in each of his first four games, but then he fired zero and one SOG in his next two. Still though, with Florida eager to balance its lines and Gusev not suited for a role outside of the top six, chances are he continues to see favorable deployment for perhaps the rest of the regular season, with things to be reassessed in the playoffs. Even if he only scores at a point every other game, that should be enough to earn him another NHL deal, albeit a "prove yourself" one year contract for not a lot of money, which in turn might cause him to choose instead to return to the familiar confines of Russia, where, as noted above, he'd be paid a lot more.

Whichever team NHL signs him, if indeed he is signed, will know from his brief time in Florida that he'll need to be paired with true scoring talent for him to potentially produce. In other words, it'll most likely be feast or famine for Gusev in the NHL going forward, where he'd gets a chance to strut his stuff and either succeed or play his way into the doghouse and most likely out of the NHL for good. Speaking of those who played their way out of the NHL……

Dating back to 1990-91, a total of three other players also debuted in the NHL at age 25 or older and, like Gusev, both played 65+ games and had a scoring rate of 0.65+ point per game in their first NHL season: Nikolai Borschevsky, Dmitri Kvartalnov, and Sergei Nemchinov. Kvartalnov was out of the NHL after a disappointing second season, Nemchinov played a number of seasons but never duplicated his first-year success, becoming a defensive-focused forward, and Borishevsky had a poor second season and was out of the NHL after four campaigns. So yeah, there's not a lot in these comparables to make poolies optimistic about Gusev's NHL future, as although Gusev was a more prolific scorer in Russia than these other three, they were no slouches either and two of the three flamed out quickly, with the other turning into a defensive-minded player, which would be an impossible outcome for Gusev.

What to do if you own Gusev in a keeper? As noted, two things have to happen for him to succeed, the first being that he even stays in the NHL, which I think is a 50/50 proposition, and the second being he's able to shine, which, based on his similarity to prior cases of European players coming to the US in their mid to late 20s or even later, is quite uncertain. If you can seize upon someone thinking they're getting a great buy low player, it would be reasonable to unload him for almost any return. Or you could take the viewpoint that because he'd fetch so little best to hold and hope he latches onto an NHL squad this summer and then finds success, as he has talent and despite the failures of those before him he might somehow be able to salvage his NHL career. Good luck, to Gusev and to you!

Question #7 (from Francois)

I’m in a keeper league that counts points only for skaters and two points for a goalie win, with an added point if the win is a shutout. I'm in a full rebuild, with the expectation of maybe starting to compete in 2022-23 at the earliest.

We can keep eight players, and I’ve already made up my mind about six spots, which are Mathew Barzal, Kirill Kaprizov, Quinton Byfield, Jack Hughes, Alexis Lafrenière and Igor Shesterkin. I'm torn on which two to retain out of Kaapo Kakko, Marco Rossi, Josh Norris, Nick Suzuki and Carter Hart. Since I'm rebuilding I don't care about production in the near term, but instead and looking at guys who have the highest ceilings.

Which two would you include as my keepers? Or would you recommend not keeping one or more of the six who I want to keep?

In terms of the six you want to keep, at first I was going to say no to Hughes; however, even with his struggles he has talented company in terms of player comparables, as the likes of Aleksander Barkov, Ryan O'Reilly, Evander Kane and Scott Hartnell also played in 100+ games as a teen and, like Hughes, failed to cumulatively average even a point per every other game. So in view of your situation, it makes sense to keep Hughes and hope that he too figures things out. The other five are smart keeps from where I sit.

As far which other two to keep, although Hart struggled mightily this season, and as I've mentioned in this column there have been other goalies who made an early splash only to fizzle, namely Steve Mason, Jocelyn Thibault and Jim Carey, he's a tempting keep on a rebuilding squad. It depends on how many teams are in the league and whether other GMs keep two goalies. If this is a 12-16 team league and all GMs keep two goalies, you basically have to keep him and hope. Basically, if fewer than 20 goalies are usually kept in total among the teams, then I think Hart is safe to let go and redraft. If more are kept, then I think the potential payoff for keeping Hart and hoping he rights his ship is likely worth enough for you to retain him.

As such, I'll rank the two best among the other four skaters, with you keeping both if you opt not to keep Hart and the best one if you retain Hart. One consideration is whether positions matter, as if so you have a lot of centers already being kept. That, in turn, would present a stronger case for keeping Rossi (who'll likely be C/W eligible) and Kakko over Suzuki and Norris, who'll be pure centers. That could be the answer right there. It also happens that Rossi and Kakko likely would have the highest potential ceilings, which is something you said was key. However, their higher ceilings also come with more risk than Suzuki, who's acclimated himself to the NHL game well and is now freed from the stifling Claude Julien system, and Norris, who most thought would be an afterthought in comparison to Tim Stutzle but is playing quite well.

One option would be to keep one "high upside" guy and another who is likely a safer play. If so, I'd go with Rossi and Suzuki. Kakko still looks like a boy among men, and I also think his diabetes and celiac disease might be inhibiting him now and in the future. Also, the fact that Kakko has not managed to get meaningful minutes with Ryan Strome and/or Artemi Panarin this season is quite telling, and worrisome. As for Suzuki and Norris, I think they likely could have similar upsides; but Suzuki is poised to the "the guy" in Montreal whereas Norris, as I noted, has Stutzle in the picture in Ottawa. Where would I rank Rossi and Suzuki? Probably Rossi first due to position and that reality that as much, if not more so than Suzuki, Rossi will be able to walk into a great gig in Minnesota.

In sum, I'm keeping Rossi and Suzuki if you don't keep Hart. If you do decide to retain Hart, then I'd go with Rossi as the other keep. Good luck!

********************

For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.