Ramblings: Teravainen Returns; Reinhart at Centre; Saros; Patrick & More (Apr 28)

Alexander MacLean

2021-04-28

I'm fairly certain that the NHL scheduler saw that I was managing the Ramblings that would include Tuesday night's games, heard my request about not having super late games on Tuesdays (thanks!) but said "in that case, let's just put all of the rest of them at 7pm”. It's a bit of a running joke at this point, but the NHL is missing out on even more eyes by not spacing out start times to the half-hours more often. Why stop there though? If a game started every 15 minutes that would be amazing. Never a time without one game on, so the channel surfers like me can always have something on.

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With only two weeks left on the schedule for most teams, you're trying to squeeze every last drop of juice out of the lemons you were given this year. An unbalanced schedule can be a great place to get an edge. For those of you in Roto leagues looking to max out your GP limits, or in H2H/Points leagues trying to get a volume edge, check out the new Schedule Planner layout at FrozenTools. The new layout shows you who is playing on which days, so if you need four games in a week but want to avoid a busy Thursday or Saturday, then it takes one quick look. The tools just keep getting better and better over there!

On top of all that, you can also join the FrozenTools community on Discord! Sign-up link "here".

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No new names on the NHL Covid list, and all the Avalanche players are finally off. They won't ever be fully healthy all year as they have been missing Pavel Francouz for the whole season, and Erik Johnson for most of it, but *knocks on wood* this coming week might be the healthiest we have seen them. They've lost a few recently, but they've already clinched a playoff spot, and getting ramped up for the first round is all that matters now. Despite being healthy, they might not be quite as dominant for fantasy down the stretch as a result.

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Spoiler alert for May's Cap Rankings list, but the initial number one seed going into this summer is looking like it will go to Adam Fox. Still some computing and reviewing time to put in before then, but Fox is an absolute stud.

K'Andre Miller played the second-most minutes among Rangers defencemen last night with four shots, two hits, and a plus-2 rating to show for it. With that kind of volume he could be an underrated option in all styles of leagues next year.

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I noticed in Buffalo's pre-game lineups that Sam Reinhart was listed as the top line centre. I was unaware that this was not a new development, and has been going on all month. It might also surprise you that this is his stat line in the last month:

That is some exceptional production. Could it be possible that the Sabres are suddenly flush with centres? Between Jack Eichel, Dylan Cozens, a breakout from Casey Mittelstadt, and the recent play of Reinhart, the Sabres lineup finally looks like it has some depth. They're primed to get through the Seattle expansion without losing much, and I think they're primed to start moving up the standings next year as a result. That means dynasty owners should be checking out the acquisition cost on Linus Ullmark and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.

Back to Reinhart though, and diving a bit farther into his recent numbers since his shift to centre, I noticed a big divide in his faceoff percentages. He was below 50% at the faceoff dot in six of his first seven games, but then something clicked and he was suddenly at or above 50% in six of the next eight. His production has increased right along with that comfort level, and he has racked up 10 points in those nine games. Perhaps he just sees the ice better as a centreman, but in reality, the added production is all on the powerplay where he has become more of a focal point since Eichel last exited the lineup with his injury. That being said, he has averaged over three shots per game in the last ten games, so he does seem to be touching the puck more overall and not just on the power play. I'll be curious to see what Buffalo does in the offseason and how the lines shape up in pre-season come September.

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In the first of last night's Eastern Division playoff preview games (Boston is currently lineup up to play Pittsburgh in the first round). Both last night and Sunday were very tightly contested games, and this could be one of the best first round matchups if it comes to pass. David Krejci put up another two points to continue his hot streak. Does he take a discount to stay in Boston this summer? His fantasy value (and possibly that of the perfection line as well) takes a hit if he leaves Boston.

With having noted that the Avalanche are finally getting healthy, it seems that the team that has lost the most quality this year is Pittsburgh. They may be a strong play in playoff pools where no one will be jumping on any of the East teams early.

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Jack Roslovic flashed his skill a few times (albeit against the Red Wings), and looks primed for a proper breakout with a slightly more consistent game over the course of a full 82 games next year. This should happen whether John Tortorella returns or not. He hit his breakout threshold a few weeks ago, and it looks as though 60 points can be the projection, not the ceiling going into next year.

Otherwise, the Red Wings/Blue Jackets game was a snooze fest. Elvis Merzlikins showed well in his first game since the news broke that Joonas Korpisalo would miss the rest of the season with a lower-body injury. Merzlikins becomes a great volume play for the rest of the season, though I'm hoping we also get to see third stringer Matiss Kivlenieks.

Joe Veleno made his NHL debut and took two shots in 14 minutes of ice time. He mainly played with Sam Gagner and Richard Panik. He'll be a real fantasy asset soon, but you will have to wait a little longer for the real impact.

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A few lineup changes for the Islanders with Noah Dobson coming out of the lineup for Braydon Coburn. Funny how the Islanders then scored zero goals and had trouble creating offence; just strange. Daniel Sprong scored his 10th of the year, the only goal of the game. He's earning a locked-up spot on the Capitals roster for the future, and the Caps don't have a lot in the pipeline coming to displace him.

Every one of the new Islanders lines got beat in shot share, so don't expect these new lines to stick:

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In a cruel twist of fate for the Flyers, Nico Hischier potted his fifth goal of the season with Nolan Patrick in the penalty box. Patrick picked up a secondary assist in the second period, and has only three more points despite playing 30 more games. There's some additional red flags for the 22-year-old, as he's been down under 10 minutes of ice time per game of late. Philadelphia would have to lose a key forward or two for Patrick to really have the space to make a splash, but even then the growth of a strong pipeline means that Patrick may have to be expansion or trade bait before he gets an opportunity to thrive. Philadelphia has the depth to let him go too, but does that depth mean there's an even better option available for the Kraken, and Patrick continues to spin his wheels here as a depth piece?

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The Chicago lines got thrown in the blender, and though they paid dividends early in the game, the end result was still disappointing. Adam Boqvist also left the game with his arm dangling loosely at his side, so expect him to miss some time. That could be some late season Nicolas Beaudin music you're hearing.

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Alex Barre-Boulet was out on the top powerplay for the Lightning. He could be a sneaky depth add before an offseason where Tampa will be forced to shed some salary. If he can stick as a weapon on that top powerplay too, then it will be some amazing value. Even if a healthy Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov relegate him to second power play duties, there's still a lot to like.

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Juuse Saros for Hart! Let alone all of the late Vezina talk.

The Predators were outshot 21-8 in the first period last night, but came out of it tied 1-1. Making a playoff push, and currently neck-and-neck with the Stars for the last playoff spot in the Central,

Roman Josi also passed Shea Weber as the all-time leading scorer among Predators defencemen. He has dropped back this year to his usual 0.68 points-per-game pace that he hits on the nose every second year (I'm not kidding). This was expected after a career-high 65 points in 69 games last year. He still has the name value up in the top tier, but he's not more than a 55 point defenceman most years. If you can swap him for someone in the next wave who has their path temporarily blocked (like a Miro Heiskanen) then it's probably worth looking into in deeper keeper leagues.

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Teuvo Teravainen returned to the lineup for the Hurricanes, and boy is it ever noticeable when the whole lineup is there. The whole team was buzzing. In my opinion, Carolina is the team to beat in the Central right now, which makes them the team to beat overall. Here's the lines with TT back:

After two straight years at 0.93 points-per-game, Teravainen is only pacing in the mid-50s this season. His large decrease in ice time immediately jumps out on his FrozenTools player page, however that's in part due to a few injury-shortened games. The real pieces to note are the reduced shot volume, reduced shooting percentage, and the very unlucky IPP numbers. With the emergence of Vincent Trochek and Jordan Staal as offensive threats this year, Teravainen hasn't had to (or gotten to) carry as much of the offensive load. He should still be a productive member of a very productive offence, but in the short-term we might expect closer to a 65-point pace instead of the 75-point pace from the last two years.

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It's also a day that ends in "Y" so Jason Robertson scored again. Sell high only if the return is a proven 80+ point scorer.

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If you have the chance to move your first rounder this year for one next year (or even the year after), you might want to take a shot at swinging something along those lines. The top-end guys are worth the extra year of wait time. And for those of you looking to get ahead in the scouting department for this year's draft, the DobberProspects team is pumping out a ton of content related to the ongoing U18 tournament.

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If you have any fantasy questions, comments, or thoughts, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

In the meantime, stay safe!  

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