Weekly Western Leaders (to May 2nd, 2021) – in bold leads the NHL

Goals – 29 –  Connor McDavid  (38 – Auston Matthews)

Assists – 58 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Primary Assists – 41 –  Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Secondary Assists – 23 – Tyson Barrie – Edmonton (23 – Adam Fox)

Points – 87 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton

PPP – 31 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Shots on Goal – 193 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado (201 – Brady Tkachuk, Auston Matthews)

Shooting % (min 50 SOG) – 22.7 – Joonas Donskoi – Colorado, Mark Stone – Vegas (23.1 – Mathieu Joseph)

PIM – 68 – Mathieu Olivier – Nashville (73 – Max Domi)

Best plus/minus – plus-28 – Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton, Shea Theodore – Vegas

Worst plus/minus – minus-23 – Blake Wheeler – Winnipeg, Quinn Hughes – Vancouver (minus-36 – Rasmus Dahlin)

Hits – 169 – Josh Archibald – Edmonton, Nikita Zadorov – Chicago (229 – Radko Gudas)

Blocked shots – 148 – Alec Martinez – Vegas

FOW – 621 – Ryan O’Reilly – St. Louis (644 – Patrice Bergeron)

FOL – 460 – Christian Dvorak – Arizona (540 – Sidney Crosby)

FO% (min 230 FO) – 59.9 – Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare – Colorado (61.5  Patrice Bergeron)

Giveaways – 65 – Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton (82 – Thomas Chabot)

Takeaways – 51– Mark Stone – Vegas, Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton (52 – Jack Hughes)

Highest CF% (min 30 GP) – 63.4 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado

Lowest CF% (min 30 GP) – 38.6 – Devin Shore – Edmonton

Highest PDO (min 30 GP) – 109.2 – Marcus Foligno – Minnesota

Lowest PDO (min 30 GP) – 93.6 – Ryan Carpenter – Chicago (90.8 – Nolan Patrick)

Highest Expected Goals For 5 on 5 (cumulative net) – 15.57 – Devon Toews – Colorado

Highest Expected Goals for 5 on 5 (net per game) – 0.34 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado, Devon Toews – Colorado

Lowest Expected Goals For 5 on 5 (cumulative net) – minus 11.49 – Duncan Keith – Chicago

Lowest Expected Goals for 5 on 5 (net per game) – minus 0.36 – Jamie Drysdale – Anaheim

Goalie wins – 26 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado (30 – Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Save percentage (min 20 starts) – 92.8 – Juuse Saros – Nashville (93.4 – Alex Nedeljkovic)

Quality starts – 23 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado, Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (23 – Andrei Vasilevskiy, Semyon Varlamov)

Quality start % (min 20 starts) – 69.7 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (Semyon Varlamov)

Shutouts – 6 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado (7 – Semyon Varlamov – NY Islanders)

All stats above from Dobber's Frozen Tools

With Expected Goals (xG) added to Dobber's Frozen Tools, here is a summary of what the stat entails or at least what I have found on the topic. Each shot attempt during a game is assigned a value as a high danger, medium danger or low danger event and given a point value based on the type of shot and where it was located on the ice. Historically, we know the success of where goals have occurred and how they went in so combine the shot attempt value and the historical success rate and we are given a value for an expected goal.

As an example, a high danger chance historically might have a 15% success rate, a medium danger chance might have an 8% and a low danger chance might have a 2% success rate (these are just taken off the top of my head, so please don't check). During an example game, a team might have 7 high danger chances, 12 medium and perhaps 30 low danger chances. The value given in my example would be 0.15 expected goals for a high danger chance, 0.08 per medium and 0.02 for low chances. As a team, they would have 0.15 x 7, 0.12 x 8 and 0.02 x 30 which would translate to expected goals of 2.61 for this particular game. The expected goal values are then assigned to the players on the ice for each event and each scenario (5on5, 5on4, etc.) for and against. There are a few different expected goal models that use different variables, but the premise for all remains the same.

The fantasy relevance is helpful in that taken in the correct context, expected goals can let us know whether a player is over or undervalued in terms of what they have accomplished to date. The one aspect not taken into account is the skill level of a particular player, as an expected goal is based on the average player.

I thought I would deduct xGA5on5 from xGA5on5 to get a better idea of actual performance on the season and on a per-game basis. Like plus/minus, Corsi, PDO, GAR or WAR it is the outliers that should be focused on with each team as those are the players that are outside the norm for their particular team, not just the rest of the league. 

The measurement is only for even-strength at 5 on 5, so we can also see the players and teams that rely heavily on production with the man advantage. I thought we would look at each team in the West and look at 5on5 xG/game (10 games min.).

Anaheim Ducks

There are only three Ducks that have a positive xG5on5/game and they are Hampus Lindholm (0.06/game), Trevor Zegras (0.02) and Troy Terry (0.02). The Ducks at the opposite end of the spectrum are Jamie Drysdale (-0.36), Josh Manson (-0.29) and Josh Mahura (-0.22). Leading scorer Maxime Comtois is in the upper portion of the roster at (-0.02). This bodes well for both Zegras and Terry becoming NHL regulars, while Drysdale and Mahura might require a little more time and in the case of Mahura, it might question his ability to become an NHL regular.

Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes are led by Nick Schmaltz (0.08), Niklas Hjalmarsson (0.06), Conor Garland (0.06), Clayton Keller (0.06) and Jacob Chychrun (0.05). The bottom Coyotes are Oliver Ekman-Larsson (-0.19), Ilya Lyubushkin (-0.15), Jason Demers (-0.13) and Phil Kessel (-0.13). It has to be a little disappointing to have your captain at the bottom-end of the roster, but also encouraging to have the nucleus of Schmaltz, Garland, Keller and Chychrun all in the upper end of things.

Calgary Flames

Chris Tanev leads the Flames in net xG5on5/game at 0.19, followed by Andrew Mangiapane (0.14), Noah Hanifin (0.13), Mikael Backlund (0.12) and Derek Ryan (0.12). At the bottom of the lineup are Rasmus Andersson (-0.07), Brett Ritchie (-0.04) and Dillon Dube (-0.01). Other notables are Matthew Tkachuk (0.08), Johnny Gaudreau (0.07), Sean Monahan (0.03), Elias Lindholm (0.02) and Mark Giordano (0.00). From all accounts, this stat speaks to the play of Mangiapane and Tanev this season, but there have to be some concerns that Andersson is anything more than a 3rd or 4th defenseman in the NHL.

Chicago Blackhawks

Dylan Strome is the only Blackhawk that is in the positive at 0.01, followed closely by Dominik Kubalik (-0.01), Riley Stillman (-0.02) and Pius Suter (-0.2). At the other end Wyatt Kalynuk (-0.24), Duncan Keith (-0.22), Patrick Kane (-0.21) and Kirby Dach (-0.19). I wouldn't have expected to see Strome this high on the list as is currently a minus 12 and only has 14 points in 37 games. It might be an encouraging sign that things will improve for him over a longer number of games played. For all of Kane's offense, there have always been concerns at even-strength and as Kane gets older this number is unlikely to improve. It is good to see Kirby Dach playing after coming back from injury, but he has clearly struggled a little and it is probably too early to get a proper indication of what we might see next season from him.

Colorado Avalanche

No surprise here as Nathan MacKinnon leads the team (0.34) followed by Devon Toews (0.34), Samuel Girard (0.30), Mikko Rantanen (0.29), Jacob Macdonald (0.28) and Cale Makar (0.28). There aren't any players in the negative on the team but at the bottom are Bowen Byram (0.06), Nazem Kadri (0.07) and J.T. Compher (0.08). This team will be tough to beat in the playoffs if they stay relatively healthy as they carry so much of the play night in and night out. Even the bottom six forwards and bottom two defence are carrying their share of the play and more.

Dallas Stars

The top Stars are Joe Pavelski (0.16), Roope Hintz (0.15), Joel Hanley (0.14) and Jason Robertson (0.14). The bottom players are Radek Faksa (-0.07), Rhett Gardner (-0.06) and Ty Dellandrea (-0.04). Miro Heiskanen (0.06) and John Klingberg (0.05) are in the middle. The Stars are getting production from some unlikely sources this season in Pavelski, Hintz, Hanley and Robertson and that can only be a good thing going forward, albeit Pavelski has to slow down sooner than later. 

Edmonton Oilers

Like in Colorado, the leader of the Oilers is no surprise as Connor McDavid (0.19) is tops, followed by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (0.13), Jesse Puljujarvi (0.13), Ethan Bear (0.12) and Dmitriy Kulikov (0.12). The bottom consists of Kyle Turris (-0.15), Dominik Kahun (-0.14), Kris Russell (-0.13) and William Lagesson (-0.12). Other notables are Leon Draisaitl (0.02), Darnell Nurse (0.02) and Tyson Barrie (-0.09). The Oilers have been quick to make adjustments to their roster with players underperforming (Turris) this season and would like to see Nugent-Hopkins and Puljujarvi where they are at, although a lot of their numbers might be attributable to playing with McDavid. The perception is that Draisaitl at plus 28 is having a much better defensive year than before, but the expected goals might be tempering that story a little.

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings are led by Alex Iafallo (0.03), Anze Kopitar (0.02) and Dustin Brown (0.02). The bottom consists of Kurtis Macdermid (-0.30), Jaret Anderson-Dolan (-0.18) and Carl Grundstrom (-0.15). Other notables are Drew Doughty (-0.01) and Gabe Vilardi (-0.09). There might be some lean years ahead for the Kings as they start to cycle in some young players this year and next as Kopitar, Brown and Doughty are just holding their own for the moment.

Minnesota Wild

Joel Eriksson-Ek leads the Wild (0.15) followed by Marcus Foligno (0.08) and Kevin Fiala (0.08). The bottom has Luke Johnson (-0.23), Marcus Johansson (-0.11), Brad Hunt (-0.08) and Mats Zuccarello (-0.07). Leading scorer and possible rookie of the year Kirill Kaprizov is on the lower end of the scale at (-0.04). Fiala is heating up at just the right moment and his expected goals lead us to think that it was just a matter of time before points started adding up. Unfortunately, Zuccarello and Kaprizov might have small corrections at some point the other way.

Nashville Predators

A good sign for Matt Duchene and future production might lie in the fact that he leads the team (0.12), followed by Roman Josi (0.10), Viktor Arvidsson (0.07) and Filip Forsberg (0.06). Jeremy Davies (-0.17), Ben Harpur (-0.13), Rocco Grimaldi (-0.10) and Mark Borowiecki (-0.09) are at the bottom. With only 11 points in 30 games, Duchene might be a very cheap pick-up going forward that could have some good returns.

San Jose Sharks

Tomas Hertl is the best on the Sharks (0.19) followed by Rudolfs Balcers (0.15), John Leonard (0.06) and Kevin Labanc (0.06). At the other end are Marcus Sorensen (-0.13), Noah Gregor (-0.12), Matt Nieto (-0.09) and Dylan Gambrell (-0.08). Other notables are Evander Kane (0.04), Brent Burns (0.03), Timo Meier (0.02) and Erik Karlsson (-0.07). Balcers is an intriguing name to see near the top of the Sharks, as he has played 88 career games and has 13 goals and 20 assists. He has turned into a multi-category player with 70 hits and 25 blocks to go with his 16 points in 36 games this season. Add him if you can in a multi-category league if you can.

St. Louis Blues

There are only four Blues that are not negative and they are led by Robert Bortuzzo (0.01), Mackenzie MacEachern (0.01), Jaden Schwartz (0.00) and Jordan Kyrou (0.00). At the bottom are Carl Gunnarsson (-0.16), Vladimir Tarasenko (-0.13), Marco Scandella (-0.13) and Mike Hoffman (-0.13). Other notables are Ryan O'Reilly (-0.07), Torey Krug (-0.05) and David Perron (-0.04). The numbers here don't lie, as the Blues have underperformed this season and it starts with their best players struggling. Kyrou is the biggest takeaway here as I find it surprising that a player that was held back before due to question marks about his overall play, is near the top on a team with the likes of O'Reilly, Tarasenko and Perron.

Vancouver Canucks

There are only three Canucks in the team that are positive and they are led by Elias Pettersson (0.02), Zack MacEwen (0.00) and Nils Hoglander (0.00). The bottom of the roster has Tyler Myers (-0.21), Brandon Sutter (-0.14), Jayce Hawrlyuk (-0.12), Travis Hamonic (-0.11), Bo Horvat (-0.11) and J.T. Miller (-0.11). In hindsight, any hopes the Canucks had for the playoffs were dashed when Pettersson went down with his wrist injury 19 games ago. Not only has his absence hurt the team at even strength but it has hurt the team with the man-advantage. Hoglander has been a revelation and even though his ceiling is probably limited to 20 goals and 40 points, his success is a nice hit for the club. Pro scouting is important when you look at the names at the bottom of the Canucks here with Myers, Sutter, Hawrlyuk, Hamonic and Miller as five of the six players listed were signed or acquired to be positive difference makers each and every night which has not happened this season even closely.

Vegas Golden Knights

Shea Theodore (0.15) leads the team followed by Nicolas Hague (0.13), Mark Stone (0.11) and Alec Martinez (0.11). The bottom of the roster is Dylan Coghlan (-0.02), Ryan Reeves (0.00) and Cody Glass (0.00). Other notables are Max Pacioretty (0.08) and Alex Pietrangelo (0.04). I think it is fair to say that Theodore has emerged just fine when the team brought in Pietrangelo and this club is pretty deep and could make another good run in the playoffs. Coghlan and Glass need a little more time before they should be NHL regulars.

Winnipeg Jets

It's a wonder that the Jets are such a good team with the results of their xG and this might be cause for concern leading into the playoffs. The leader on the team is Dylan Demelo (0.03) followed by Nikolaj Ehlers (0.02) and Mathieu Perreault (0.01). The bottom of the team has Blake Wheeler (-0.23), Josh Morrissey (-0.22) and Nathan Beaulieu (-0.21).

Leading scorer Mark Scheifele is (-0.14). With Ehlers hurt, it will be a big blow to the club if he can't return in time for the playoffs. The team is solely relying on its special teams and that can only take a team so far.

Like most stats, expected goals need to be taken with a grain of salt, and we need to focus on the little signs that it does point us towards, but by no means does having the highest xGF make that player the best offensive player on the team. If we look at the top 20 xGF from Natural Stat Trick, 17 are defensemen, so right away some issues would have defenders so high on the list and number one is ice time. The more a player plays the more the player can expect to score and that is why it is so important to net it out against xGA which I've done above. 

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions please message me or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.