Wild West: Second Half Surges and Fades

Grant Campbell

2021-05-10

Weekly Western Leaders (to May 9th, 2021) – in bold leads the NHL

Goals – 32 –  Connor McDavid  (40Auston Matthews)

Assists – 68Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Primary Assists – 48 –  Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Secondary Assists – 26Tyson Barrie – Edmonton

Points – 100Connor McDavid – Edmonton

PPP – 35Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Shots on Goal – 204 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado (214Brady Tkachuk, Auston Matthews)

Shooting % (min 55 SOG) – 22.1Brandon Saad – Colorado, Mark Stone – Vegas

PIM – 68 – Mathieu Olivier – Nashville, Brendan Lemieux – Los Angeles (86 – Tom Wilson)

Best plus/minus – plus 30Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton

Worst plus/minus – minus 24 – Quinn Hughes – Vancouver (minus 36Rasmus Dahlin)

Hits – 187 – Nikita Zadorov – Chicago (242Brady Tkachuk)

Blocked shots – 165Alec Martinez – Vegas

FOW – 674Ryan O’Reilly – St. Louis (700Patrice Bergeron)

FOL – 509 – Christian Dvorak – Arizona (586Sidney Crosby)

Best FO% (min 240 FO) – 60.8 – Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare – Colorado (61.9 – Patrice Bergeron)

Worst FO% (min 240 FO) – 40.5 – Ryan Hartman – Chicago (35.4Jack Hughes)

Giveaways – 67 – Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton (82 Thomas Chabot)

Takeaways – 53– Mark Stone – Vegas(56Jack Hughes)

Highest CF% (min 32 GP) – 63.7Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado

Lowest CF% (min 32 GP) – 39.2 – Devin Shore – Edmonton (37.5 – Libor Hajek)

Highest PDO (min 32 GP) – 107.5 – Carson Soucy – Minnesota

Lowest PDO (min 32 GP) – 93.6 – Ryan Carpenter – Chicago (90.9Nolan Patrick)

Goalie wins – 28 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado (31Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Save percentage (min 22 starts) – 92.7 – Juuse Saros – Nashville, Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (93.2Alex Nedeljkovic)

Quality starts – 25Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (25 – Semyon Varlamov)

Quality start % (min 22 starts) – 71.4Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (71.4Semyon Varlamov)

Shutouts – 6 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado (7Semyon Varlamov – NY Islanders)

All stats above from Dobber's Frozen Tools

Now that the season is into the final few games of the regular season (for all but seven teams at least), we can look at first and second half splits. From the first half to the second half of this season some intriguing players started quite well and faded or vice versa. Here are the booms and the busts in the West in the second half who have seen an increase or decrease in ice time, shots on goal and production (Long-term injuries not included) in comparison to their first half.

Best of the Surges

Troy Terry went from 0.33 pts/game after his first 21 games to 0.50 in his last 26. He also saw his ice time increase from 12:59 to 16:10 per game.

Trevor Zegras had two points in his first nine games and saw some time in the AHL. In his last 14 games, he had 10 points and was averaging 15:33 per game. Watch for these two to continue to improve and eat up more ice time.

Alex Goligoski picked up his production in the second half, after only two assists in his first 27 games, he posted three goals and 16 assists in his last 28 games and has seen his ice time increase from 22:16 to 23:50 per game.

Christian Fischer had one assist and was a minus eight after his first 23 games and was averaging 11:34 per game. His second half has gone much better with 10 points in 28 games (0.36/game) and his TOI is up to 13:39.

Lawson Crouse had a similar split to Fischer with only 3 points in his first 24 games but had 10 points in his last 27 games (0.37).

Noah Hanifin has seen his point production increase to 0.50 points/game after putting up 10 points in his past 20 games after 5 points in his first 27. His ice time has gone from 19:35 to 20:36 per game on average. He is out for the regular season.

Brandon Hagel has had a very good second half with eight goals and 16 points (0.64) in his past 25 games. His first half saw him with one goal in 25 games and eight points (0.32). His average ice time has gone from 13:14 to 14:22.

Nathan MacKinnon and the rest of the Avalanche have historically not been second-half production beasts, but this year is different and I'm sure other teams are worried come playoff time if they have to play Colorado. MacKinnon had a good first half with six goals and 23 points (1.10) in 21 games but has had an excellent second half with 14 goals and 42 points (1.61) in his last 26 games.

Gabriel Landeskog is making the most of the last season of his contract with the Avalanche. He posted seven goals and 16 points (0.70) for a decent first half, but, like MacKinnon has had an excellent second half with 12 goals and 33 points (1.22) in his past 27 games.

Tyson Jost has had his struggles before and none more than the first half of this season, when he had one goal and three points (0.13) in his first 23 games. The second half has seen him post three goals and 11 points (0.41) in his past 27 games.

Jason Robertson had a very good first half when he finally was called up and had four goals and 13 points (0.76) in his first 17 games. His second-half put him up with Kirill Kaprizov for the league lead in points for rookies when Robertson had 12 goals and 30 points (0.94) in 32 games. His average ice time went from 13:32 to 18:34 in the second half.

Connor McDavid had improved his production in each of his first five seasons and after 29 games he was well on pace to make it six with 17 goals and 51 points (1.76). He has not only held that pace but has improved upon it in the second half as he has posted 15 goals and 46 points (2.0) in his past 23 games to reach 100 points in 53 games.

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Jesse Puljujarvi has been a beneficiary of playing with McDavid most of the year, but he has also improved as the season has progressed. His first half saw him with seven goals and 10 points (0.36) in 28 games, while his next 23 games have seen him put up seven goals and 14 points (0.61). His average ice time has increased from 14:31 to 15:55.

Trevor Moore has had an excellent second half with eight goals and 14 points (0.54) in his last 26 games. This is after he had two goals and nine points (0.35) in his first 26 games. His average ice time has gone from 13:16 to 15:37.

Sean Walker struggled in the first half with only three assists and a minus seven to show for in his first 17 games. In the second half, he has four goals and 13 points (0.50) in 26 games and has seen his average ice time go from 17:00 to 19:02.

Kevin Fiala had only eight goals and 11 points (0.50) in his first 22 games and as someone that had picked him fairly early in my hockey pool, I was a little worried. His second half has been much better as he has 12 goals and 29 points (1.12) in his past 26 games and is in the form that made him such a high pick. 

Jared Spurgeon has had a night and day season so far. His first half saw him post five assists in his first 24 games, while the second half has seen him seven goals and 19 points (0.68) in his past 28 games. His average time on ice has increased slightly from 21:40 to 22:40 per game. He is heating up in time for the playoffs.

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Nick Bonino must have taken some time to adapt to the Wild as he struggled offensively with only two goals and five points (0.21) in his first 24 games. In the second half, he has been much more comfortable and has eight goals and 19 points (0.68) in his past 28 games. The Wild have some players heating up at the right time.

Calle Jarnkrok has been having a very productive second half with seven goals and 20 points (0.71) in his last 28 games. His first half wasn't bad, but he only had six goals and eight points (0.38) in his first 21 games. His average time on ice has increased from 15:14 after 21 games to 18:03 over the following 28 games.

Erik Haula was brought in to contribute offensively and struggled in the first half with only two goals and seven points (0.30) in his first 23 games. His second half has been much better with seven goals and 14 points (0.50) in his past 28 games. His average ice time has increased slightly from 15:35 to 16:23.

Mikael Granlund being re-signed for this season wasn't looking great after his first 24 games with only five goals and 10 points (0.42), but he has had a better second half with eight goals and 17 points (0.63) in his past 27 games.

Eeli Tolvanen had a decent first half but only played 18 games where he managed five goals and eight points (0.44). His second half has continued to progress in the right direction as he has had 14 points (0.67) in his past 21 games. His average ice time has gone from 13:41 to 15:49.

Luke Kunin was supposed to be a good fit in Nashville this season but struggled out of the gate and only managed to play 17 games where he had five points (0.29). The second half has gone much better for him and he has eight goals and 14 points (0.67) in his past 21 games. His average time on the ice has increased slightly from 13:43 to 14:22.

Tomas Hertl only managed 18 games in the first half and had seven goals and 13 points (0.72) but he has managed to put together a very good second half with 12 goals and 29 points (0.97) in his past 30 games. Hopefully, he can continue into next season.

Shea Theodore had a very good first half with 16 points (0.76) in his first 21 games. His second half has been even better with five goals and 26 points (0.90) in his past 29 games. He has put to rest any worry about his production with Alex Pietrangelo being added.

Tomas Nosek struggled in the first half with only two goals and three points (0.19) in his first 16 games. His second half has been much better as he has six goals and 15 points (0.68) in his past 22 games.

Max Pacioretty had an excellent first half with 12 goals and 22 points (0.92) in his first 24 games. His second half has surpassed his first as he matched his goal total with 12 more and 29 points (1.21) in his next 24 games. He's reached another level of point production, which will be interesting to see if he can maintain.

William Carrier has never been much of a point producer so his two points (0.09) in his first 22 games was hardly noticeable. His second half has been noticeable as he has five goals and 11 points (0.41) in his past 27 games. His average ice time has increased slightly from 9:47 to 10:47.

Andrew Copp had a very good first half with five goals and 17 points (0.65) in his first 26 games and I thought he might have been overachieving a little with that type of production. He has exceeded that in the second half with 10 goals and 22 points (0.81) in his past 27 games. He will be an important player for the Jets if they have any playoff hopes.

Worst of the Fades

Jakob Silfverberg had a disappointing first 28 games averaging 0.39 pts/game, but his second half was even worse with just five points in 19 games (0.26).

Ryan Getzlaf has gone from 11 points in his first 26 games (0.42) to six points in his past 22 games (0.27). Getzlaf has also seen his ice time reduced from 17:15 to 15:56 per game.

Rickard Rakell had a decent first half with 19 points in 28 games (0.68) but had only nine points in his next 22 games (0.41) and his ice time diminished from 18:29 to 17:05 per game.

Kevin Shattenkirk was brought in to provide some offense on the power play and was decent in the first 28 games with 11 points (0.39), but he only had four assists to show for in his next 26 games. His ice time went from 21:57 to 20:21 per game.

Clayton Keller had a decent first half with eight goals and 21 points in his first 27 games (0.78) but has only 14 points in his past 28 games (0.50). Overall that is a 52-point pace in an 82 game season, but expectations have been higher than that.

Conor Garland had an excellent first half with 22 points in his first 26 games (0.85)and was a plus that led the Coyotes, but his play has faltered a little in the second half with only three goals and 14 points in 22 games (0.63) and he was a minus 10.

Jordan Oesterle was averaging 19:14 of ice time and had 11 points after his first 27 games. He has come back down to earth in the second half with no points in his past 14 games (-7) and his ice time averaged 15:52.

Sean Monahan only has five goals and 10 points (0.40) in his past 25 games and has seen his average ice time go down from 18:34 to 16:57. This after an underwhelming five goals and 18 points (0.72) in his first 25 games. There has to be some concern in Calgary.

Rasmus Andersson was riding high with three goals and 14 points (0.52) in his first 27 games. The first unit of the powerplay was his to run and he was averaging 21:35 of ice time each night. The second half hasn't been nearly as kind to him as he has one goal and six points (0.24) in his past 25 games.

Matthew Tkachuk is such a key player for the Flames and as he goes the team usually goes. He had a decent first half with seven goals and 21 points (0.78) in his first 27 games, but that is still well below what is expected of him. His second half has mirrored the teams where he has four goals and 16 points (0.64) in his last 25 games. His average ice time went from 19:26 to 16:43, mostly attributable to new coach Darryl Sutter.

Philipp Kurashev had a bit of a promising first half as a rookie with six goals and 10 points (0.37) in his first 27 games, but he has hit a bit of a wall since with only two goals and six points (0.24) in his past 25 games.

Adam Boqvist looked like a lock for the answer as quarterback on the first unit of the power play as he had 12 points (0.71) in his first 17 games. He has struggled to maintain anything close to that point production with only four points (0.22) in his past 18 games. He will get there eventually.

Samuel Girard was never going to maintain his pace of 19 points (0.83) after his first 23 games but before he was injured for the rest of the regular season he did fairly well in his next 23 games with one goal and 12 points (0.52).

Nazem Kadri had 18 points (0.72) in his first 25 games which was pretty good production from him while playing an average of 17:35/night. His second half has fallen off a little with 12 points (0.46) in his past 26 games while his average ice time has been reduced to 15:27. 

Kailer Yamamoto had pretty high expectations after getting almost a point per game in 28 games last season. His first half of 15 points (0.52) in 29 games was attributed to a bit of a sophomore slump but his second half has fallen off completely with only one goal and five points (0.24) in 21 games. His ice time is still relatively the same and he is generating chances so he should revert closer to his first-half stats at the very least.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a decent first half with 10 goals and 22 points (0.76) in 29 games but has struggled to put up numbers in the second half where he has four goals and 11 points (0.58) in 19 games.

Joe Pavelski is only listed here because his first half of 13 goals and 24 points (1.09) in 22 games was phenomenal and unlikely to continue. To be fair he has managed to hold on better than I would have thought in the second half but still faded a little with nine goals and 22 points (0.69) in 32 games. His average time on the ice went from 20:01 to 18:36.

Adrian Kempe was on pace for a 35-goal season pace after his first 26 games when he had 11 goals and 19 points (0.73). His second half hasn't been nearly as successful as he has three goals and 10 points (0.38) in his last 26 games.

Drew Doughty had a great bounce-back start to this season with six goals and 22 points (0.85) in his first 26 games along with being a plus two. His second half has faded a little with two goals and 11 points (0.42) in 26 games and a minus nine.

Dustin Brown had 13 goals (41-goal pace) and 19 points (0.73) after 26 games. His second half was not quite as productive as he had four goals and 12 points (0.52) in 23 games.

Anze Kopitar had many fantasy owners excited with his first half, where he had seven goals and 31 points (1.19) in his first 26 games and probably put a lot of owners in contention early on. His second half hasn't been bad by any means but 19 points (0.73) in 26 games is probably closer to Kopitar's true production level at this point.

Jordan Greenway had an excellent first half with 19 points (0.76) in his first 27 games while playing an average of 16:30 per night. His second half has seen his ice time back to 15:15 on average and he has one goal and 12 points (0.43) in his past 28 games.

Kevin Labanc had a good start to his bounce-back campaign with six goals and 16 points in his first 24 games (0.67). Even with two points in his last game, he has struggled in the second half with 12 points (0.41) in his past 29 games.

Logan Couture helped carry the Sharks to a better start than expected when he put up 13 goals and 22 points (0.92) in his first 24 games. His second half has been a struggle as he had four goals and nine points (0.31) in his past 29 games.

Timo Meier had 17 points (0.77) in his first 22 games of the season but has struggled in the second half with six goals and 13 points (0.43) in his past 30 games. I have him in one of my hockey pools and his points don't help me because we don't count the bottom two players on each team.

Zach Sanford had an impressive eight goals and 12 points 0.46) in his first 26 games this season and was averaging 15:48 per game. The second half has been a disaster for him with one goal, two points (0.09) and being minus 12 in his past 22 games. His ice time has diminished to about 13:41 per game in the 2nd half.

Jordan Kyrou was a feel-good story in the first half as he put up eight goals and 21 points (0.78) in his first 27 games. The second half has been a bit of a struggle with four goals and 11 points (0.46) in his past 24 games. His ice time has been reduced from averaging 15:08 to 13:48 per night.

Brayden Schenn has cratered with his production in the second half after a very successful first half with 12 goals and 24 points (0.89) in his first 27 games. His second half has him with two goals and eight points (0.32) in his past 25 games.

Brock Boeser had a great first half of the season with 14 goals and 29 points (0.97) in his first 30 games, but the Canucks have struggled with Covid and injuries and their play is suffering as a result. Boeser has six goals and 12 points (0.63) in his past 19 games. The Canucks have the most games remaining with seven so Boeser still has a chance to put up some more points.

Alex Tuch had an excellent start to the season with 12 goals and 19 points (0.79) in his first 24 games. He has not so much faded in the second half, as much as just produced closer to his actual level. He has six goals and 12 points (0.43) in his last 28 games.

Neal Pionk had an excellent first half with three goals and 22 points (0.85) in his first 26 games. He has come back to earth quite a bit in the second half and has nine assists (0.35 pts/game) to show for his past 26 games.

Some of these players will be heading to the playoffs, so have a closer look at them if you want to see what their form is heading in.

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions please message me or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11 CAR vs PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11 MTL vs CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11 BUF vs OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11 TOR vs BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11 NYI vs PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11 MIN vs L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11 STL vs T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11 WPG vs UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11 COL vs SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11 ANA vs VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11 S.J vs CBJ

Starting Goalies

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  Players Team
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
ALEX LAFERRIERE L.A
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
MARTIN NECAS CAR
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN S.J

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  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

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  Frequency WSH Players
23.4 TOM WILSON CONNOR MCMICHAEL PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS
19.7 DYLAN STROME ALIAKSEI PROTAS ALEX OVECHKIN
19.1 TAYLOR RADDYSH BRANDON DUHAIME NIC DOWD

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