Ramblings: Paul Stastny Plays Game 1000; Bruins Thoughts; Playoff Pool Picks & Projections (May 12)
Alexander MacLean
2021-05-12
Heads up for those of you with fantasy leagues still going, today's game between the Canucks and the Jets starts at 5pm EST. Wouldn't want to miss one of the last chances you have to set your lineups for the season.
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Along the same lines, the league is bumping up the start times for the CGY/VAN games so they don't interfere with playoff games going on at the same time. The games don't mean much, but I'll take afternoon hockey anytime I can get it.
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I wanted to make sure Alex Newhook got featured early so that you all know he's a worthwhile gamble in your playoff pools. He's playing top-six minutes for Colorado, has three points through his first four games, and saw powerplay time in his first three games. He's a top-tier offensive catalyst, and might even be an early favourite for rookie of the year next season.
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With the playoffs almost upon us, I wanted to give some quick thoughts on how I see each of the four divisions playing out. Obviously, you want to try and load up on Nathan MacKinnon, Brayden Point, and Connor McDavid, but once those guys are off the board, stacking a few players from a team in the middle of the pack that has a good shot to play a few rounds can often reap huge benefits. I'll talk you through my thought process and the best value bets here.
Central:
The Predators have only beat the Hurricanes twice in eight games this season, and the second was a game that held no meaning for either team other than pride. Carolina should win this series in four or five, and this is coming from an optimistic fan of the Predators. Meanwhile, on the Florida side of things, Tampa has to be the favourite, but if Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and playoff Sam Bennett are slipping too far in your playoff drafts, they're worth the gamble. Andrei Vasilevskiy also has some poor numbers against the Panthers this year, so it wouldn't be a huge shock to see the Panthers continue to have his number. I like the Hurricanes most in the division (and will be targeting them the most in my playoff drafts), but there's three good options here.
West:
Colorado and Vegas are the heavy hitters, but whenever we expect a marquee matchup in round two or three, how often does it actually end up happening? The Wild aren't going to be an easy out, and they have already beaten the Golden Knights four times this season. Kirill Kaprizov will rightfully be the first one off the board for them in playoff pools, but grabbing Kevin Fiala, Mats Zuccarello, Jordan Greenway, or Joel Eriksson Ek in the next few rounds may be an excellent gamble. As much as the Blues have the playoff experience, their defence is just in pieces right now and they are nowhere near the same team. I like their chances the least out of all 16 playoff teams.
North:
Toronto should win their first-round matchup, but can McDavid or Connor Hellebuyck carry their respective team to the final four? It's certainly not impossible. Even if McDavid plays only two rounds, can he lead the playoffs in scoring? He has to be your first-round pick in your playoff draft if he's still on the board, regardless of who you think wins the cup, right?
A lot of questions there, but all that to say McDavid is otherworldly and the safest pick of any playoff draft. Team-wise, the best bet is on the Leafs to come out of the division, though a gambler might have fun rooting for the Jets.
East:
Any of these four teams could come out of this division and I wouldn't bat an eye. Problem is, Pittsburgh is going to have their players go first in playoff drafts just based on reputation, and if you don't get at least three pieces of the Capitals' powerplay, then you need to also hit on your second team to beat out the other guy that stacks Capitals. I like the Bruins and the Islanders a little better anyways, so I'm definitely fading the Caps and Pens. Yes, the Islanders and Bruins are both technically underdogs coming into the playoffs, but the Bruins have an amazing second line for the first time since Nathan Horton, David Krejci, and Milan Lucic – that is no small matter. The Islanders also play exactly the way you need to in order to win in the playoffs, and that's stifling Barry Trotz-style defence, along with an offence that can beat you on the rush or in the corners. The Islanders are the last of the real cup contenders that I think you can wait on in playoff drafts. Mathew Barzal, Semyon Varlamov, and then a few depth players from there. No one you have to reach for, and you can get four of the top six options off of a team like Carolina or Toronto before you even have to think about the Islanders.
My ideal scenario is landing Connor McDavid in round one, then loading up on Hurricanes and either the Islanders or Wild, and hoping my teams don't play each other in round three.
In the current draft I am a part of over on the Dobber Forums, I had a late pick in the first round so I missed McDavid, but I landed most of the top Carolina assets, and am now switching my focus to my second team. Kaprizov and Barzal went in rounds four and five respectively, and I'm okay missing out on the top asset on either of those teams as long as I can grab three of the top six from one of them (including the goalie). I managed to grab Josh Bailey and the Islanders goalies around the round five/six turn, so now I'm comfortably rolling for the rest of the draft. If there's a leftover underdog team that has a full top line undrafted after round 10 (like Nashville, Montreal, or St. Louis this year) then I'll usually grab a few of these guys late too. Some years it works, others it doesn't – I find that I usually finish either in the top-two or the bottom two with this kind of strategy.
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Also, if you're setting up your playoff league and need to randomize a draft order, or just do some final research, FrozenTools has you all covered here.
Or, if playoff drafts aren't your thing and you just want to fill out a bracket, here's another one for you to get in on. See if you can beat my entry, now that you generally know what mine is going to look like.
Pre-made boxes for playoff box pools are also available here.
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The scheduling this season was really interesting and has led to a lot of playoff preview matchups in the final games before the playoffs – more so than in previous years.
That was the case last night with Boston and Washington lining up. Or at least it was supposed to be. Instead we saw basically the Bruins' AHL lineup, as 16 regulars were held out of the lineup. The Capitals looked like the better team, but they were also outskated by the Bruins. None of this is surprising as the game didn't mean much at all, so the players coming in for the Bruins with something to prove and a possible spot in the playoff lineup on the line kept their effort level high. Michael Raffl played the hero with two seconds left in the game by pinballing the puck in from behind the goal-line. Certainly not the game you expected if you were betting on the Capitals. Hopefully your blood pressure is back to normal now.
A few of the Capitals, namely Lars Eller, Zdeno Chara, and Nick Jensen, were battered and bruised in the game. None of them were off the ice for long, but all left the ice at one point or another in some visible discomfort. Something to keep in mind for your playoff pools.
This kind of game is one of the reasons that I like having fantasy leagues end before the last week of the season.
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Boston's cap situation is also reaaallly interesting going into next season. They have only $50 million tied up in 15 players, and that's not including Dan Vladar's ELC which could be the second-half of a goaltending duo next year (with Jeremy Swayman). The Bruins could then bring back David Krejci at a reasonable number, maybe two years with an AAV of $6 million. Taylor Hall has no reason to test free-agency either, and would be great to lock up long-term at a similar AAV to where he is now. That puts the Bruins at about $65 million, and only a couple roster slots still in need of filling. The Bruins also have the flexibility to shop Jake DeBrusk to bring back something solid as well, because DeBrusk just doesn't seem to be fitting in at the moment. For depth options, the Bruins have a few guys knocking on the door like Urho Vaakanainen and Jack Studnicka, and that means they can spend the offseason going big-game fishing.
The Bruins can correct a big previous wrong here by pursuing Dougie Hamilton. Bringing back their ninth overall selection from 2011 would be HUGE for the Bruins, and they have the space to throw a massive contract at him to get it done. Maybe this is just me fantasizing, but either way it shows that the Bruins have options to make a big splash and keep their contention window open for another few years.
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In the other game last night, Paul Stastny played the 1000th match of his career. There was an excellent pre-game ceremony with the family there with him. Moments like that are very special, and we haven't been able to appreciate them as much this year.
Stastny never matched his rookie year output, but he was a great player for years with multiple teams and in various different roles. Going into next season, he may finally be a valuable asset again in cap leagues, as he's due for a pay-cut from his current $6.5 million cap hit. Moving on from Winnipeg may also be in his best interest too, as their top-six is a little too crowded. Going somewhere like Columbus that needs help at centre but has some strong wingers would be ideal.
Kyle Connor has goals in back-to-back games now, and after a bit of a down year, looks primed for a big post-season run. Unfortunately, his outlook next season may not be too different from this year, as was maxed out at 21 minutes of ice time per game last year, and down at a more reasonable 19 minutes per game this year. As one would expect with the lower ice time, Connor's shot rate per game dropped, and his scoring pace dropped in line with both. His p/60 rate has been consistent, between 2.5 and 2.9 over the last four seasons. Keep an eye on his average ice time early next season and not his actual production numbers if you're looking for a hint towards what his overall season pace will be.
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In case you were thinking that Detroit may start to be a fantasy relevant team next year:
You don't top this kind of list if you have much at all to offer fantasy managers. That won't tur naround very quickly. At best Dylan Larkin returns to form, and is on a top line that plays some excellent two-way hockey along with Jakob Vrana and Tyler Bertuzzi. This would set up a kid line with Lucas Raymond, Joe Veleno, and Filip Zadina that they can feed ALL of the offensive zone starts. Doing this in front of an improved defence core including highly touted rookie Moritz Seider would be a boon for the fantasy values of everyone included. However, looking at this fictional lineup, it reminds me of the Buffalo Sabres from the last few years. Those teams didn't exactly pile up points, plus they dragged down a lot of possible strong fantasy seasons with low shooting percentages and terrible plus-minus stats. Be cautious in trying to buy in too early on Detroit players, you might get a better price after the season has begun.
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If you have any fantasy questions, comments, or thoughts, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.
In the meantime, stay safe and join me in anxiously awaiting the start of the playoffs!