Frozen Tool Forensics: Most Valuable Center

Chris Kane

2021-05-21

Now that the season is finally under wraps (sorry Vancouver/Calgary) it is time to take a look back and see how things panned out. For this mini-series we are going to take each position and see who provided the most value. We will do this by comparing their draft rankings to their performance rankings. Basically, who was worth their draft position?

So how are we going to do this? First up ADP (average draft position). We have ADP from a couple of sites so we are going to combine that and then rank it. So Connor McDavid had the lowest average draft pick (of 1.3) so he gets ranked at #1. Apply that same process across the board and the top three centers are ranked thus:

  ADP Rank
Connor McDavidC1
Leon DraisaitlC2
Nathan MacKinnonC3

No surprises there.

For comparison we are going to take Yahoo's standard calculation for points (six for goal, four for assist, etc.) and apply that to Frozen Tool's Big Board Report. In order to do this, we export the report, then add a little equation adding all of the values for each scoring category. That gives us a total points produced for all players, which we can then rank.

  ADP RankPTS RankΔ
Connor McDavidC110
Leon DraisaitlC220
Nathan MacKinnonC34-1

So in this instance McDavid was the first player off the board, and also ranked the highest in total points. Leon Draisaitl was the second, and had the second highest point totals. Nathan MacKinnon was the third center (and player) off the draft table, but the fourth-ranked forward for points. The delta column shows that there is a discrepancy between his ADP and his rank and the negative means he did not quite live up to expectations (don't worry a '-1' is basically nothing).

So using this process we can answer the question: Which center most outperformed his draft position?

The table below contains the top five players whose points rank exceeded their draft rank.

  ADP RankPTS RankΔ
Vincent TrocheckC26454210
Kevin HayesC277103174