Here we go, part four. This week we'll check out the Los Angeles Kings, Florida Panthers, Edmonton Oilers, Detroit Red Wings, Dallas Stars, and the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Again, we run into teams with little-to-nothing in the way of unrestricted free agents. As previous I'll improvise to give coverage to players that deserve to be covered rather than discuss a player that holds limited value even in 31-team pools.

You can once again find the link to Alex MacLean's UFA salary projections here. The other parts of the series are available here.

Los Angeles Kings – No one.

Chris Wolanin is the only UFA for the Kings. There is simply no fantasy value here to discuss.

If the Kings are out of the playoff race next season, keep an eye on Dustin Brown. Its possible the Kings move him to a contender and retain half his salary. He will be on an expiring contract and an attractive mid-six forward to teams looking for extra leadership, grit and scoring depth.

Florida Panthers – Nikita Gusev, Age 28, Left Wing ($4.5M)

I don't think anyone expected or predicted the horrific offensive season Gusev had. He was coming off a 44-point season where he got better quarter over quarter for the New Jersey Devils. He then found himself a healthy scratch often for the Devils in 2020-21 and put up a meager five points in twenty games before being traded to the Panthers. He was noticeably better after the trade, but how much of this was Gusev and how much of this was a result of playing with Alexander Barkov is up for debate.

The pedigree is too good for Gusev to be this bad. There is a strong possibility he packs it in for the safety and familiarity of the KHL. It is a real concern to Gusev owners. A relief to some others.

Buyer beware until Gusev signs. I can't see him getting four million on the next contract. I can see a team taking a chance on him for $2M or less. 

If Gusev does sign another contract in the NHL in the $2M range, I'd be willing to roll the dice on him. Acquiring him via trade should be really cheap, if not a simple waiver wire claim (a lot of owners just gave up and dumped him mid-season).

Lots to watch here with Gusev. There are lots of question marks and a fair amount of risk. Yet, the reward for cost to acquire with the projected cap hit makes this a risk that could be worth taking. The upside potential of 20-points per million of salary is what you search for.

Edmonton Oilers – Tyson Barrie, Age 29, Defence ($3.75M)

There is a lot to like about his season in Edmonton. His .86 points per game were a career high and put him on pace for 70-points.

I don't foresee prospects Evan Bouchard or Philip Broberg influencing Ken Holland's decision to re-sign Barrie or not. They might be the future in Edmonton, but there's just no guarantee when either will be ready to take on such a prominent role. Defensive depth doesn't hurt anyone either.

Barrie's projected salary is $7.4M. I don't see Edmonton willing to spend that much on him when they're also looking to re-sign Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

For Edmonton to re-sign Barrie it will be a real fine line to walk. How long of a deal will Holland be willing to offer to lower Barrie's cap hit to make keeping him palatable? Maybe, five years?

It is as likely as not that Barrie signs elsewhere. His performance in Edmonton should have paid off and he should guarantee himself north $6M a year, if not more. I don't see him getting $7M. He is too one dimensional for that to happen.

I look at another offensive defenceman that signed with the flat cap as the ceiling on what Barrie should command, Torey Krug at $6.5M. Krug is a better all-around defenceman as well.  I'd be shocked if Holland doesn't use this as a comparable contract in negotiations.

Staying in Edmonton will maximize his fantasy value for the next three years. Leaving, Barrie will still remain a high-quality point-producing option on defence, but he'll see a drop in production signing almost anywhere else.

There won't be any shortage of suitors for Barrie's services. I would put the odds at Barrie leaving Edmonton at 60-40 right now. If he leaves his predicted production is in for a hit. It could mean as much as a 10-point difference a season.

Keep an eye on this one.

Detroit Red Wings – Henrik Zetterberg, Age 40, Center ($6.08M)

I kid. But I thought it was worth the anecdotal mention to mark the end of this contract. It is a shame injuries ended his career so early. He was a fun one to watch.

Detroit Red Wings – Jonathan Bernier, Age 32, Goalie ($3M)

He never panned out as the number one goalie Los Angeles and Toronto dreamt he would be. Nor the vast majority of hockey experts. Yet he salvaged his career the past few years in Detroit on a horrible Red Wings team.

No matter where Bernier lands he holds limited value. He's a back-up goalie moving forward but one that offers more value than say, Brian Elliott or Curtis McEIhinney.

In a 12-team league Bernier will sit on the waiver wire most of the year. In larger pools he becomes rosterable as handcuffs or a depth goalie option.

There are a lot of goalie free agents this summer and better options available than Bernier. For that reason, I don't see him landing with any of the elite teams. Those teams in need of back ups will target the Jaroslav Halak's. Regardless where he signs, unless he re-signs with Detroit, Bernier will end up in a better fantasy situation.

He will be cheap to own. In a pinch, he'll provide a stop-gap option.

Dallas Stars – Jamie Oleksiak, Age 28, Defence ($2.137M)

Again, a team filled with non-expiring contracts.

Yet, I have a nagging feeling that Oleksiak is about to tap into another level. Let us be honest though, there is no expectation he will magically turn into the next Mackenzie Weegar. In points-only pools, skip this section as he doesn't hold roster value unless your pool is 16-teams or larger.

He was on pace this year for a career high 21-points, over 82 games. If you believe 'big-man theory' applies to the 6-7, 255-pound depth defenceman, at 369 career games he could be sitting on a potential 30-point season. 

Shockingly, Oleksiak is a career six percent shooter (this is good for defencemen). This was also the first year he provided a 1.5 shot on goal per game rate. Over an 82-game pace we were looking at a potential 10-goal defenceman.

The real value for owners, however, comes from his peripheral value with hits and blocks. At over two hits per game and 1.5 blocks per game, Oleksiak provides good depth to your roster (if you start six).

If my suspicions prove correct, Oleksiak will be a sneaky option for the bottom of your roster. His salary won't increase much over its current value. Adding a potential 30-point, 120 shot, 180 hit, 120 block defenceman for $2M or possibly less is attractive to me.

This is what I would call real bargain hunting.

Columbus Blue Jackets – No one of value

Mikhail Grigorenko, Zac Delpe don't really move the needle for anyone.

Like I have done in previous parts of this series, rather than skip a team I'll talk about a second player from a previous team,

Edmonton Oilers – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Age 28, Center/Left-Wing ($6M)

In 2014-15 when Nugent-Hopkins signed his current deal he had just had back to back 56-point seasons. Before this abbreviated year Nugent-Hopkins had produced the two best years of his career, 69-points and 61 points in 65 games, a 77-point pace. He regressed this year to 35 points in 52 games, yet I doubt this impacts his contract value much at all. He's in for a decent raise.

Alex's salary projection for Nugent-Hopkins sits at $7.14M. This is one I expect to land very close that projection. Edmonton will do everything they can to re-sign him this summer. I don't think it is any coincidence at all that the day after the Oilers were eliminated from the playoffs Connor McDavid listed Nugent-Hopkins as part of the Oilers core that is there to see the team go deep into the playoffs in the future.

The fact is, the Oilers are bare offensively outside of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. They cannot afford to watch him leave. Draisaitl and McDavid cannot do it by themselves.

In Edmonton he's a 70-75 point winger who can play center. I fear if he leaves we see a real dip in production, as much as ten points a year, depending where he lands. At times he can drive the play, but for the most part Nugent-Hopkins is a really strong complimentary player that needs an elite talent on his line to get the most out of him. It will be hard to replace the elite talent he gets to play with currently somewhere else.

Re-signing with Edmonton he remains good value to own, even with a raise into the $7.5M range. If he signs elsewhere in the $7.5M range, he could easily drop a tier in value. Location & line mates will be paramount for him to maintain his current value.

Right now, I expect he will re-sign with Edmonton, and long term, 6-8 years, and puts up career highs over the next two to three seasons.  The market does not have many replacements of his ilk this year.

Thanks for reading, next week I'll bring you the final part of the series.

(all stats from Frozentool.com & all salary information from capfriendly.com)

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