Ramblings – Golden Gong Show, Leafs Rant, Makar Magic and More (May 31)

Dobber

2021-05-31

Carolina hung in there, but in the end the Tampa team is just too strong. But the Lightning seriously shortened the bench. In fact, just four forwards saw more than 16:10 of ice time: Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, Brayden Point and Barclay Goodrow. Steven Stamkos was seventh in ice time, as Coach Jon Cooper tried to manage a slim lead/tie game. Tampa was up by one goal for about 21 minutes, and tied during the rest of the game. This marks three out of the last four games where Stammer failed to see even 16:10 of ice time. But the guy has eight points in seven playoff games, so why complain?

Possession-wise, the only Tampa Bay line combination with a positive CF% (more chances for, than against) was the Kucherov-Point line (Ondrej Palat was the other member). That line dominated 21-10, while every other line was out-chanced. Which helps explain Stamkos' ice time.

Shot leaders in the game were all from one team: Carolina. Vincent Trocheck (7), Martin Necas (6) and Andrei Svechnikov (5).

Both the Jordan Staal line and the Trocheck/Necas line dominated the Lightning, whereas the Sebastian AhoTeuvo Teravainen connection got out-chanced. I wonder if Warren Foegele moving to that line in place of Brock McGinn turns things around?

Nino Niederreiter is "very, very doubtful" to play in this series, per Rod Brind 'Amour.

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The above series and the Boston series I struggled with, for the Experts Panel. I actually, after some back and forth in my head, submitted the Islanders and the Hurricanes as victors. Then… about a half hour later I submitted an "I changed my mind" email to Gooding, and had him switch it. The Isles and Canes are so well-coached, and such underrated teams. Particularly in the second half. But in the end, Tampa got a huge boost with Kucherov returning (and I wondered how well that would work, chemistry-wise – turns out very, very well). And Boston since getting Taylor Hall has been unstoppable. So that's why I changed my mind and went with the consensus/obvious teams to win.

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I picked Toronto to win the Stanley Cup in my preseason Fantasy Guide, as well as on the preseason Experts panel and again for the pre-playoffs postseason. The logic there, of course, is the fact that they'll have an "easy" ride to the semis. Factor in that there is a small chance that another team could take out their nemesis Boston and even Tampa, and voila – this Top 5 NHL team (in terms of talent) is in the Final where anything can happen. But that, of course, was counting on their three star players. Instead, what we have is one star player in the press box nursing injuries, while two other star players morph into 60-point second liners these last few games. Didn't count on that.

I could join Leaf fans around the world and rant about Mitch Marner's playoff disappearing act. Too easy.

I'd rather focus on Auston Matthews. I believe that a top defensive center with two-way upside could shut an elite player down for a game or even two. I also believe that Philip Danault is an underrated, top defensive center. This season hadn't been as strong as the prior two, but man, his role and underlying analytics pointed to him as being a Selke candidate in either of those years. So yeah, Danault fits the bill. But is Matthews elite or not? If he's elite, can he still produce if every opponent is named "Danault"? Is he better than Danault? If teams iced 12 forwards with the same Danault skill set all season long… would that mean that Matthews would have zero points in 82 games? Of course not. But at some point, the best of the best just bulldoze through these shutdown pests and make things happen. Most hockey fans consider Matthews one of three best forwards in the league right now. But if he can't even get past Danault, is he really any better than, say, Mark Scheifele? Fans were clamoring for a Matthews vs. McDavid showdown in Round 2, but if Matthews can't show us his elite side on Monday night then we're not going to see either player. And why would we want to?

That (rant) being said, Coach Sheldon Keefe cost Toronto that game with that inexplicable decision to challenge the first goal. Terrible.

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This was posted last week when Beauvillier tallied three points against Pittsburgh. He scored again Saturday, to he's up to 30 points in his last 32 games. If you chalk up the early-season disaster to injury (and recovering from said injury), this is his breakout year. And the beauty of it is that it's hidden from all but the sharpest of eyes. A casual fantasy owner sees 28 points in 47 regular season games, which is a career-high 82-game pace of 49 points. Big deal. Not even draftable in some points leagues. But we know different, don't we?

That being said, I don't like how Beauvillier has been injured in each of his last two seasons. So any projection I do would be a cautious one that only factors in about 70 games.

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Robin Lehner was given the start for Vegas, in a surprise decision. But was there really a wrong choice? Vegas has an experienced Cup winner coming off an elite season, and they also have another goalie in his prime whose two prior seasons were with Vezina-consideration numbers.

Lehner gave up seven (!) goals, but it was still not the wrong choice. Now Marc-Andre Fleury gets starts going forward, and has that added rest. Not sure we can blame Lehner too much. His last start was nearly three weeks ago, and Sunday night the team fell apart around him. The game dissipated into a complete gong show…

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Ryan Reaves and Ryan Graves, the game after attempting to injury Ryan Suter (what is it with Ryans?):

Have you ever seen this?

I'm still not sure how the misconducts translated into a nine-minute power play. There were two players on each team to receive 10-minute misconducts, and at the same time, Ryan Reaves was given a pair of two-minute penalties plus a game misconduct. By my math, that's a four-minute power play. I believe that for the game misconduct, he was charged a five-minute major…but statistically it counts as a 10-minute. So the two, plus the two, plus the five equal nine. Best I could figure.

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I love Lehner's attitude and personality. Here is his reaction on Twitter when beatwriter Jesse Granger announced him as the starter…

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With three points on Sunday, Cale Makar has 28 career points in 30 playoff games. Only Brian Leetch (36), Bobby Orr, Denis Potvin, Al MacInnis and Sergei Zubov (29) had more in their first 30 games, when it comes to defensemen.

With two goals in the game, Nathan MacKinnon has eight in five playoff games. That's third place in NHL history for five playoff games. Steve Payne had nine for the Minnesota North Stars in 1981, and Newsy Lalonde had 11 for Montreal in 1919!

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The Vancouver Canucks have signed highly-touted prospect Vasily Podkolzin to a three-year contract. There are many who expect him to play next season. The 19-year-old is a future power forward, likely in that high-60s range, but possibly in the 70s if he clicks with great linemates. But keep in mind that he is a power forward. That means you won't see 40 points next year. At best I figure you'll get Alex Tuch production for four or five years (or even longer) before you really see what Podkolzin can do. Read more on Podkolzin here.

The writing was on the wall for Joakim Nygard, and so he signed with Farjestad of the SHL. His NHL stint is now officially over.

In what was a bit of a surprise – Ottawa prospect Vitaly Abramov signed a two-year deal to play in the KHL. He had been developing slowly – but he had been developing. This past season his points-per-game average in the AHL was a career-high 0.83. His career in the QMJHL saw him post 301 points in 185 games. He had been acquired by Ottawa in the Matt Duchene trade. I was still somewhat high on him, since he's still only 23 (just turned) and in the fall he would need to clear waivers to be sent down. So Next season was probably the year he would stick. But it looks like he wasn't interested.

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See you next Monday.

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Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
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JJ PETERKA BUF
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
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