Craig Smith was out for Game 2 between Boston and New York while Jake DeBrusk was on the second line. It is a reminder that while DeBrusk had a bad year, he has had good years before and was Boston's staple on the second line with David Krejci. Do not give up on him just yet. He is a guy that could easily rebound to 20 goals next year, depending on the make-up of the team.

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John Tavares skating at the team's optional morning skate:

John Tavares has joined the Leafs optional morning skate. Another sign of progress.

— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) May 31, 2021

He didn't play, obviously, but that he's even skating in an optional is a great sign compared to what we were thinking a week ago.

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Ryan Reaves has been suspended two games for the incident in Game 1. Per my new policy, I don't really care what DoPS does anymore.

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The improbable happened as the Montreal Canadiens beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round 4-3 thanks to a 3-1 Game 7 win. Carey Price was the star for Montreal, as he's been most of the playoffs, saving 30 of 31 shots he faced.

Montreal's first two goals came from Brendan Gallagher off the rush and Corey Perry standing in front on the power play. If there were ever two goals more emblematic of this team, those are problem them. The final tally was Tyler Toffoli with the empty net because of course Toffoli had to get in on the goal scoring.

As of right now, I am not going to write a huge post-mortem on Toronto. This will be one of the biggest stories in hockey this year so there's no need to give instant reactions right now. We will have lots of coverage about this over the coming days.

One thing I want to say is that, fantasy-wise, I hope they don't trade their big guns. Auston Matthews had a spectacular season and he was likely injured for about half of it. I want to see what he and Mitch Marner can do, especially if that power play ever comes together. I imagine there are some Leafs fans that wouldn't be too happy to see at least one of those guys return but I'm a fantasy guy first and I want to see that happen very much. Especially if the power play can find itself for a full season. We are talking massive seasons.

On the other hand, I realize this isn't likely something that's to happen. This is several years in a row without playoff success and that isn't acceptable with the talent this team has. Zach Hyman may not return and it seems likely someone like Marner or the typical sacrificial lamb William Nylander. The reality is that this team has a lot of depth it needs to figure out. They have six forwards that are UFA in a year where they don't have a lot of cap space should they bring Hyman back. An interesting summer is ahead.

As for Montreal, a well-rested Winnipeg team awaits them. They will have to deal with two top-end scoring lines and possibly the best goalie in the world. The winner gets a date in the Conference Finals.

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Boston came back from a 3-1 deficit in the third period but lost 4-3 thanks to a Casey Cizikas breakaway overtime winner. That evens the series between the Bruins and the New York Islanders at one each.

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Was looking at some playoff stats and something that stuck out to me: Colorado's leader, by a mile, in shot rate at 5-on-5 these playoffs? Valeri Nichushkin. We are only talking about five games and it's obviously not proof of anything yet. For now, this is just a funny coincidence.

Before he turned into the defensive stalwart we currently see in the NHL, Nichushkin was drafted to be a goal scorer. And he was, for a bit: 14 goals in his rookie NHL season and 27 goals in 86 games over in the KHL. Is that goal scorer waiting to break out?

Funny enough, 2020-21 saw Nichushkin post the highest shot rate of his career. The question is why that happened. Was it something that changed with his game, was it something that changed with the team, was it due to the intra-divisional schedule, or maybe the shortened season? Or some combination of these things? Not sure.

But it is important to note the growth in his shot rate. It has increased every year since returning from the KHL, and has gone from roughly the 25^th percentile in shot rate two seasons ago to roughly the 80^th percentile in 2020-21. The question is whether he can maintain somewhere around 80^th percentile in shooting moving forward. At his 2020-21 rate, he shot similarly to guys like Joel Farabee, Jordan Eberle, and Anthony Beauvillier. Shooting at rates like that don't guarantee production, but with some secondary PP minutes, it firmly puts 20 goals in range.

Little upticks like this are important to notice. Despite the career-high shot rate, Nichushkin was still well below two shots per game because of his ice time. It is hard to rack up high levels of shots/game skating 14 minutes a night. With the expansion draft on the horizon, though, it isn't hard to envision Nichushkin being on the move to Seattle, depending what Colorado does with their protections. He is a guy Seattle could extend for relatively cheap, and with them having a robust analytics department, they would be well aware of Nichushkin's excellent defensive play (from Evolving Hockey):

The people running Seattle's hockey operations would know that Nichushkin is a tremendous value at $2.5M for next season and that because of low production rates, he won't be expensive as a UFA. He is the type of guy who can insulate a line defensively, helping balance any holes they have on their scoring or checking trios. And, perhaps like a Marchessault or a Karlsson, he only needs consistent top-6 minutes to produce enough to be relevant in the fantasy game.

Remember that Nichushkin isn't afraid to lay the body; he has 149 hits in his last 120 regular season games. In a full season, 20 goals and 125 hits are well within reach for him if he can get to 16-17 minutes a night, and he won't cost much at the draft table if he's taken in expansion. Just a name to keep in mind, depending what happens this summer.

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On the topic of playoff shot rates, Anthony Cirelli.

Like Nichushkin, Cirelli is considerably more valuable in real hockey than in fantasy hockey because of his defensive prowess. Over his last two seasons, which have seen him play largely a top-6 role, he has just 66 points in 118 games. What is worse is that he has just 188 shots on goal in that span, or about 1.6 shots per game, a mark worse than Nichushkin's.

The playoffs, however, have seen a big turnaround. At 5-on-5 this postseason, Cirelli is top-10 among regular forwards in shot attempt rate, and is averaging just one fewer shot attempt per 60 minutes than Auston Matthews. That is prolific shooting, and a big deviation for Cirelli.

We have to remember that the first round against Florida was a shot fest. Not that it makes sense that Cirelli shot more than everyone else, but that he'd come off a series against the Panthers shooting a lot more than normal isn't super strange. It is also just a seven-game sample we're working with here.

With all that said, keep an eye on Cirelli as they move forward. I suspect they should be able to take out Carolina, so then we'll have a better sample to work with. If Cirelli can jack up his shot rates, while playing alongside Steven Stamkos, it'll go a long way to making him fantasy relevant.

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Last guy I want to mention here: Frederick Gaudreau. Like Cirelli and Nichushkin, he's also top-10 for shot rate in the postseason. Unlike those two, we won't get more games from him to see where his sample ends up.

I bring up Gaudreau because he was excellent with Jeff Carter and Jared McCann. As a trio, those three posted a 58.8 percent expected goal share in the regular season and 55.3 percent expected goal share in the playoffs. That line was excellent, and possibly Pittsburgh's best line in the postseason.

Gaudreau is UFA but shouldn't cost much to bring back. He has 18 career points in 103 career games, his AAV shouldn't be much more than the league minimum, depending how many teams realize he was good last year. If the Pens can bring him back, they can effectively return their three scoring lines they had at the end of the year, and that would go a long way into being a Cup contender again next year.

The difference between Gaudreau and Nichushkin/Cirelli is that Gaudreau doesn't rack up hits, posting just 34 over the last two years, spanning 74 games. Even this year, he had just nine in 19 games while playing 13 minutes a night. It is unlikely he gets much more TOI than that, so high hit rates are very unlikely. In other words, he needs the improved shot rate for fantasy value. I wouldn't draft him next year, but keep an eye on him.