My updated top-200 contract projections are below. This is a Ramblings article though, so there are a few other thoughts I want to touch on before I get to the contract numbers.

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The Vezina nominees were revealed yesterday:

The Vezina Trophy finalists are set! Who would get your vote? 🏆 #NHLAwards

Read more on @NHLdotcom ➡️ https://t.co/JsqImHvlvI pic.twitter.com/JxjR4I5zhf

— NHL (@NHL) June 1, 2021

In my (perhaps slightly biased) opinion, Juuse Saros should have been nominated here. No offence to Philipp Grubauer, but Saros put up extremely similar stats with a lot less help this year. Connor Hellebuyck would have been a deserving nominee as well.

Many seem to think the award will go to Andrei Vasilevskiy, however I say the favourite has to be Marc-Andre Fleury. The two goalies have very similar numbers, but Fleury hasn't yet won a Vezina and is such a well-liked player. If you don't think that won't factor in just enough to tip the scales in his favour, then you haven't been watching NHL awards for long enough.

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That being said, Andrei Vasilevskiy was nearly unbeatable last night against the Canes, despite the shots being 32 to 15 in Carolina's favour. His dominance at the position is in part due to the juggernaut team in front of him, but he is also just a fantastic goalie. Even for an offence like Carolina's it's going to be tough to put up enough goals to take four of the next five games to win the series. It really looks like we're headed for an epic Avalanche/Lightning showdown, and even a Leafs fan like myself could sit back and enjoy that despite Monday's collapse.

On that note, I really hope the Leafs don't blow up the core after this. The Blackhawks were swept in 2017, traded Artemi Panarin for Brandon Saad, and haven't been the same since. The cores with this much talent that stick together do seem to break through eventually, and with some cap flexibility this summer, there is room to make some additions even without messing with the core. Giving the group one more year (which lines up with the expiration of Morgan Rielly's long-term deal and Jack Campbell's bargain contract) is likely what Kyle Dubas is going to lean towards, as there is a lot to like overall.

I've seen cases like this in a few fantasy leagues as well. In one H2H league I spent a few years as a 3-4 ranked team coming into the playoffs, but my team was built off of skater strength, got some lucky goaltending, and knocked off the top team three years in a row. He eventually won in year four when I didn't make the playoffs after pushing chips all in for so long. He then knocked me off the year later by the margin of a single shot. The pendulum for the bounces does eventually swing the other way.

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Back to the Carolina & Tampa Bay series, Anthony Cirelli potted his third of the post-season, and despite the smalle sample size, his shot rate is intriguing me. In the regular season he has never averaged more than 1.7 per game, but in eight post-season game this Spring, he has not put fewer than two pucks on net in any game. He's doing this despite playing less minutes, and while still not seeing top powerplay time. The Lightning are finally going to be forced to shed cap this summer, and that will mean either Cirelli has the opportunity to move into a more balanced offensive and defensive role, or he moves to another team and becomes more of a top line centre than a middle-six option.

Speaking of elite middle-six centres, Vincent Trocheck unfortunately collided with a teammate in the second period and limped off the ice. He returned to play one shift in the third, and then left the game for good. The initial word from Rob Brind'Amour is not positive, and this would be a huge blow if the Hurricanes lost their 2C at this stage. This is also the same leg that Trocheck had ankle surgery on in 2018, so hopefully for him it is not an exacerbation of that issue, or anything with a similarly long timetable for return. In the meantime, look for Jordan Staal to take over on the second line, and continue his offensive success from the regular season.

With Nino Niederreiter also out of the lineup, Brock McGinn has been up on the Sebastian Aho line for the last couple of games. Thoguh after an initial spark in the last game against the Predators, the line has gone quiet. Barring a trade, there isn't room in the top-six for him, so this may be a sell-high window opening by a hair. 

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The draft lottery is tomorrow. I have found myself running a mock draft over at the @NHLRankKing app about once a day as a small draft preparation exercise – I feel like I see New Jersey win it more often than any other team, and that fits with them winning the lottery in each of the last two odd numbered years. Taylor Hall is also on a playoff team again, so maybe his magic sticks with an old team in New Jersey or Buffalo.

I have pick #15 in one league (before the lottery) and it's interesting to me how wide open the draft gets at that range, and how many players there are that I would be happy to get. I see myself likely trading down into the 20s at least, and maybe even as far as 40 and still getting one of the guys I would have considered at 15.

Finding a mock draft site you like and running through one or two before your prospect drafts can be hugely helpful in giving you a sense about how easily you can trade down, or how much you may need to move up to get the guys you want.

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On another draft note, the OHL priority selection is coming up this weekend, and there's an added storyline to watch on top of the usual intrigue that any draft provides:

This is just the coolest story right now. Sending all the best to Taya Currie in the OHL Priority Selection this weekend.https://t.co/AsLGE8OzwN

📢 advertisement:

— Will Scouch (@Scouching) June 2, 2021

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We have a three-team dispersal draft coming up in one of my cap leagues, which I am very excited to watch unfold. I'll probably post some follow-up thoughts in a future Ramblings set. Keep an eye out for that in the coming weeks.

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This is year four of projecting salaries, and despite some successes in the past, I think I am finally getting to a point where I am happy with the numbers being spit out by the system. These numbers are based on past production, future upside, age, contract status, and a whole bunch of other variables. My algorithm gives one final number as the projection for each player, and I'm rounding that off to the nearest hundred this year just to make it look a little tidier. I find these values to be a great place to start while assessing my cap league teams, and they're also just fun to see from a fan perspective either for a specific team or for the NHL as a whole. If you're a Colorado Avalanche fan, you can't be surprised to see it, but on the off days during these playoffs there has to be a bit of worry creeping in that your team won't be able to keep all of the pieces together, especially with three of the top four names projected below.

Many of you ask me why I don't list a projected number of years for the contracts. Partially it's because I just don't find it all that interesting. I do this for my own purposes to gain a bit of an edge in my cap leagues, and for that I want to know how much a player is going to be paid in the immediate future. If a player signs a very short-term deal, then it is either below market value which is great, or it and the contract signed next year are likely going to be about what I have projected anyways (e.g. Kevin Labanc). If someone signs a longer-term deal, then I don't have to worry about a new contract for several years, and we're good to go from there.

Obviously, there are some patterns to the number of years, and they're even easier to project if you have a projected cap hit to build off of. If a player gets a large sum, the term is also going to be longer (unless you're Taylor Hall and you don't want to commit too long to Buffalo). For example, Dougie Hamilton, Andrei Svechnikov and Cale Makar below are likely going to be locked up on deals at least six years in length. Moving down the list, the lower contract value the lower the average term is. Additionally, the older the player, and the further down the lineup they play, the shorter the deal. If you want to know my thoughts on what length makes sense with the projected amount I have below, or if you have any other questions, feel free to either drop a comment, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

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A few contracts I feel the need to mention:

Alex Ovechkin is going to be signed for as much money as he wants. Numbers do not tell the whole story here, and he brings that unquantifiable something to a franchise that is obviously in the closing stages of its championship window. If he wants to sign in Washington, something at or a little above the generous $9.2 million AAV given to Nicklas Backstrom would make sense for Ovie. However, with a son, a cup to his name, and an estimated set of career earnings over $120 million, he may also opt to return to Russia, leaving the NHL and the chase for the all-time goal scoring record behind.

Taylor Hall and Kirill Kaprizov both in the high $6 million range are really tough to get a handle on. I can't tell if I agree with those numbers or if they should be higher? It's obvious that Hall's injury last year and his stint in Buffalo this year are bringing his numbers down, but how much is he really going to be able to get on a long-term deal when he doesn't seem to be able to carry a line the same way he did in New Jersey? He may end up taking a bit of a discount into the $6.5-7 million range to play where he really wants to play. As for Kaprizov, the lack of history makes it tough to peg his numbers, though his initial year is similar to Artemi Panarin's rookie season, and he bet on himself, signing a two-year deal at a $6 million AAV. With the cap ceiling higher now, the percentage that Panarin signed at (8.22%) would equate to a $6.67 million contract today. Maybe Kaprizov goes the same route on a two-year deal, and then signs a mega-deal in a few years.

How much money did Sam Bennett make himself over the last couple months. Before the trade deadline he was looking at a small raise (if any) on his $2.55 million salary, and now he's projected to almost double that. His run was that impressive, and Florida really has to wonder just how realistic that small sample size is. I don't see this being a long-term deal because neither side will want to be locked into anything that could very realistically blow up in their face.

The goalies are fascinating too, as we really don't know what to expect from the market. If Boston decides that they want to run with Dan Vladar and Jeremy Swayman next year, and Chicago continues to run with their young options, then the free agent market really starts to saturate. Frederik Andersen's inconsistencies and injuries also knocked him down a peg, and he may need a short-term deal around the amount projected below in order to regain some value. At the age of 31 though, he doesn't have a lot of peak years left to take advantage of.

Slide down into the 100-120 range below, and you see mostly young players with a few depth forwards, and then there's Ryan Getzlaf. How much does he make at the age of 35 and coming off of a season where he really struggled to put up points? How much is really left in the tank there? It would be great to see him move on and chase another cup. Maybe him and Corey Perry join forces on Winnipeg's fourth line next year to try and regain some of their magic together. Lots of options there, but how much it costs to sign him is going to be really interesting. Nothing from $5 million all the way down to a $1 million contract would surprise me.

Speaking of players that struggled last year, Carter Hart really hurt his negotiating leverage with an awful season. A bridge deal is standard for all of the top goalies anyways, so having him sign a one or two-year deal at an AAV that starts with the number two wouldn't be a bad or novel thing for either side. He may still be a steal in cap leagues next year as he rebounds.

If Alex Nylander wasn't in my contract database, I would have completely forgotten about him. He's now theoretically healthy again from his knee surgery, and was even skating back at the end of April. He put up 26 points in 65 games during the 2019-20 season, and could be a threat for 40+ in a full-year back. He'll be a cheap option too.

Rank	Name	Age	Pos	Projected Cap Hit
1	Dougie Hamilton	27	D	$9,925,600
2	Cale Makar	22	D	$9,578,900
3	Philipp Grubauer	29	G	$8,744,800
4	Gabriel Landeskog	28	F	$8,557,700
5	Andrei Svechnikov	21	F	$7,524,100
6	Alex Ovechkin	35	F	$7,453,700
7	Miro Heiskanen	21	D	$7,440,300
8	Quinn Hughes	21	D	$7,309,200
9	Sam Reinhart	25	F	$7,184,100
10	Taylor Hall	29	F	$6,972,300
11	Kirill Kaprizov	24	F	$6,687,000
12	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	28	F	$6,477,200
13	Juuse Saros	26	G	$6,369,000
14	Elias Pettersson	22	F	$5,906,700
15	Igor Shesterkin	25	G	$5,851,400
16	Pavel Buchnevich	26	F	$5,827,800
17	Alec Martinez	33	D	$5,485,300
18	Patrik Laine	23	F	$5,478,800
19	Neal Pionk	25	D	$5,424,200
20	Joel Eriksson Ek	24	F	$5,281,800
21	Rasmus Dahlin	21	D	$5,014,300
22	Kevin Fiala	24	F	$4,994,000
23	Sam Bennett	24	F	$4,991,300
24	Tyson Barrie	29	D	$4,990,100
25	Zach Hyman	28	F	$4,984,100
26	Tuukka Rask	34	G	$4,768,900
27	David Krejci	35	F	$4,715,100
28	Andrew Copp	26	F	$4,674,700
29	Tomas Tatar	30	F	$4,626,300
30	Jakub Vrana	25	F	$4,569,900
31	Conor Garland	25	F	$4,559,500
32	Mikael Granlund	29	F	$4,475,400
33	Brady Tkachuk	21	F	$4,414,500
34	Phillip Danault	28	F	$4,340,700
35	Brandon Saad	28	F	$4,231,700
36	David Savard	30	D	$4,049,800
37	Adam Pelech	26	D	$3,990,900
38	Jaden Schwartz	28	F	$3,943,200
39	Mike Hoffman	31	F	$3,858,900
40	Blake Coleman	29	F	$3,767,800
41	Kyle Palmieri	30	F	$3,706,000
42	Dante Fabbro	22	D	$3,639,800
43	Linus Ullmark	27	G	$3,425,100
44	Frederik Andersen	31	G	$3,411,900
45	Anthony Duclair	25	F	$3,359,100
46	Adam Larsson	28	D	$3,307,600
47	Anthony Beauvillier	23	F	$3,285,900
48	Barclay Goodrow	28	F	$3,281,800
49	Ilya Samsonov	24	G	$3,281,200
50	Jamie Oleksiak	28	D	$3,243,900
51	Nick Bonino	33	F	$3,163,100
52	Vince Dunn	24	D	$3,147,900
53	Travis Sanheim	25	D	$3,123,200
54	Alex Nedeljkovic	25	G	$3,116,800
55	Paul Stastny	35	F	$3,107,600
56	Nick Ritchie	25	F	$3,079,700
57	Brandon Montour	27	D	$3,066,700
58	Kailer Yamamoto	22	F	$3,054,600
59	Jesperi Kotkaniemi	21	F	$3,000,900
60	Robert Thomas	21	F	$2,993,800
61	Jordan Kyrou	23	F	$2,845,600
62	Chris Driedger	27	G	$2,845,600
63	Dillon Dube	22	F	$2,789,400
64	Brock McGinn	27	F	$2,771,000
65	Mattias Janmark	28	F	$2,765,000
66	Drake Batherson	23	F	$2,738,300
67	Nikita Zadorov	26	D	$2,714,800
68	Jonathan Bernier	32	G	$2,708,200
69	Filip Hronek	23	D	$2,682,700
70	Janne Kuokkanen	23	F	$2,670,300
71	Joel Armia	27	F	$2,644,000
72	Ilya Sorokin	25	G	$2,594,000
73	Mike Reilly	27	D	$2,568,200
74	Alexander Edler	35	D	$2,561,200
75	Warren Foegele	25	F	$2,527,200
76	Max Comtois	22	F	$2,526,200
77	Eeli Tolvanen	22	F	$2,507,200
78	Nick Foligno	33	F	$2,506,400
79	Cody Ceci	27	D	$2,499,700
80	Casey Mittelstadt	22	F	$2,494,700
81	Andreas Athanasiou	26	F	$2,489,800
82	Juuso Valimaki	22	D	$2,478,900
83	Ryan Donato	25	F	$2,422,300
84	Ryan Murray	27	D	$2,353,900
85	Filip Chytil	21	F	$2,353,700
86	Brandon Carlo	24	D	$2,351,400
87	Petr Mrazek	29	G	$2,345,300
88	Tyler Bertuzzi	26	F	$2,343,800
89	Alex Goligoski	35	D	$2,303,100
90	Jake Bean	22	D	$2,300,700
91	Carter Hart	22	G	$2,208,300
92	Casey Cizikas	30	F	$2,179,700
93	Sami Vatanen	29	D	$2,164,200
94	Zach Sanford	26	F	$2,157,800
95	Erik Haula	30	F	$2,133,600
96	Yegor Sharangovich	22	F	$2,128,800
97	Alexander Wennberg	26	F	$2,087,000
98	Teddy Blueger	26	F	$2,078,300
99	Jason Dickinson	25	F	$2,052,700
100	Rudolfs Balcers	24	F	$2,047,500
101	Alexandre Texier	21	F	$2,035,300
102	Nolan Patrick	22	F	$1,991,700
103	Derek Forbort	29	D	$1,975,800
104	Jaroslav Halak	36	G	$1,956,400
105	Travis Dermott	24	D	$1,945,400
106	Victor Mete	22	D	$1,913,900
107	Luke Glendening	32	F	$1,856,400
108	Carl Grundstrom	23	F	$1,810,500
109	Pius Suter	25	F	$1,808,200
110	Alexander Volkov	23	F	$1,804,000
111	Ryan Getzlaf	36	F	$1,788,600
112	Adam Erne	26	F	$1,771,100
113	Antti Raanta	32	G	$1,759,000
114	Zach Aston-Reese	26	F	$1,752,900
115	Michael Rasmussen	22	F	$1,735,200
116	Max Jones	23	F	$1,717,700
117	Sam Steel	23	F	$1,709,800
118	Gustav Forsling	24	D	$1,685,200
119	James Reimer	33	G	$1,684,300
120	Mathieu Perreault	33	F	$1,632,800
121	Nick Bjugstad	28	F	$1,628,300
122	Artturi Lehkonen	25	F	$1,609,600
123	Adam Gaudette	24	F	$1,584,400
124	Brandon Hagel	22	F	$1,576,800
125	Bobby Ryan	34	F	$1,575,900
126	Michael Del Zotto	30	D	$1,573,000
127	Danton Heinen	25	F	$1,562,300
128	Tomas Nosek	28	F	$1,560,200
129	Tucker Poolman	27	D	$1,559,200
130	Christian Djoos	26	D	$1,545,000
131	Ian Cole	32	D	$1,535,200
132	Jordan Oesterle	28	D	$1,521,700
133	Trevor Moore	26	F	$1,518,700
134	Conor Timmins	22	D	$1,484,500
135	Ondrej Kase	25	F	$1,469,400
136	Isac Lundestrom	21	F	$1,467,000
137	Mike Smith	39	G	$1,466,500
138	Jordan Martinook	28	F	$1,451,500
139	Ivan Barbashev	25	F	$1,432,100
140	Derick Brassard	33	F	$1,408,400
141	Tyson Jost	23	F	$1,399,500
142	Tyler Bozak	35	F	$1,382,000
143	Marcus Johansson	30	F	$1,377,000
144	Libor Hajek	23	D	$1,367,100
145	Riley Nash	32	F	$1,351,600
146	Eric Staal	36	F	$1,331,200
147	Callan Foote	22	D	$1,324,700
148	Erik Gustafsson	29	D	$1,323,000
149	Blake Lizotte	23	F	$1,304,900
150	Logan Stanley	23	D	$1,303,600
151	Devan Dubnyk	35	G	$1,255,400
152	Alex Chiasson	30	F	$1,250,300
153	Adin Hill	25	G	$1,203,700
154	Travis Hamonic	30	D	$1,196,000
155	Michael Bunting	25	F	$1,195,500
156	Mark Jankowski	26	F	$1,194,500
157	Joel Kiviranta	25	F	$1,191,400
158	Travis Boyd	27	F	$1,167,700
159	Morgan Geekie	22	F	$1,161,400
160	Sam Gagner	31	F	$1,158,400
161	Brian Elliott	36	G	$1,153,600
162	Nicholas Merkley	24	F	$1,143,300
163	Travis Zajac	36	F	$1,127,800
164	Trent Frederic	23	F	$1,126,900
165	Julien Gauthier	23	F	$1,114,800
166	Jason Spezza	37	F	$1,102,500
167	Ross Colton	24	F	$1,076,600
168	Keegan Kolesar	24	F	$1,070,100
169	Evan Rodrigues	27	F	$1,067,800
170	Alex Galchenyuk	27	F	$1,066,500
171	Wayne Simmonds	32	F	$1,063,100
172	Pekka Rinne	38	G	$1,058,700
173	Mikko Lehtonen	27	D	$1,057,700
174	David Rittich	28	G	$1,051,100
175	Kevin Stenlund	24	F	$1,031,600
176	Kale Clague	22	D	$1,028,200
177	Mikhail Grigorenko	27	F	$1,021,300
178	Brett Howden	23	F	$1,015,500
179	Olli Juolevi	23	D	$1,005,000
180	Brandon Sutter	32	F	$1,001,200
181	Jujhar Khaira	26	F	$993,200
182	Michael Mcleod	23	F	$990,200
183	Zach Bogosian	30	D	$988,700
184	Rasmus Asplund	23	F	$986,300
185	Jordie Benn	33	D	$985,400
186	Zdeno Chara	44	D	$984,600
187	Josh Mahura	23	D	$954,600
188	Alexander Nylander	23	F	$945,900
189	Dominik Kahun	25	F	$943,700
190	Pierre-Edouard Bellemare	36	F	$898,100
191	Ryan Dzingel	29	F	$885,400
192	Evgeny Svechnikov	24	F	$853,600
193	Vinnie Hinostroza	27	F	$838,800
194	Andrew Cogliano	33	F	$830,100
195	Lias Andersson	22	F	$829,700
196	Tanner Jeannot	24	F	$821,800
197	Noah Gregor	22	F	$790,900
198	Marc Staal	34	D	$780,800
199	Jayce Hawryluk	25	F	$776,000
200	Brett Ritchie	27	F	$775,100

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Stay safe!