Frozen Tool Forensics: Most Valuable Right Wings

Chris Kane

2021-06-04

Welcome to Part 3 of our four-part series looking back at the most valuable players at each position. We started with centermen, last week we hit left wings, and now we are on to right wings. I think you probably get the gist by now, but we are comparing draft data to player's end-of-year stats to get an idea of how well they have lived up to their average draft ranking (ADP). To be a valuable player in this context, a player needs to outperform their ADP. 

The ADPs are based off of draft rankings across several sites and averaged. Please find our top five right wings below.

 ADP Rank
Mitch Marner12
Patrick Kane13
Mikko Rantanen14
Nikita Kucherov17
David Pastrnak27

Right wing was clearly lacking in a bit of fire power this year according to managers. There was a nice little run on right wings, but outside the top ten. Mitch Marner had the 12th highest ADP, and that was the highest of all the right wings. Just as a comparison for left wings, Artemi Panarin had the fifth-highest ADP Rank.

Next we have the same process as last week: we compare that rank to the player's year-long performance. We are taking Yahoo's standard calculation for points (six for a goal, four for an assist, etc.) and apply that to Frozen Tool's Big Board Report. In order to do this, we export the report, then add a little equation adding all of the values for each scoring category. That gives us a total points produced for all players, which we can then rank. We will use both rank and actuals in the column – but we will get to actuals in a minute.

First up, ranks. We aren't just looking at who ranked the highest in points, we are looking for the player who had the largest difference between his draft rank and his performance rank.

 ADP RankPTS RankΔ
Tyler Toffoli25532223
Conor Garland25175176
Phil Kessel22662164
Cam Atkinson22574151
Clayton Keller23588147

This metric highlights those deeper players who are dramatically outperforming their rank (we will get to another way to look at it in a minute), so it helps to have been ranked poorly to start.