Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 Team, weekly H2H League with 30 player rosters plus 7 farm, where 20 of the 30 players are kept as well as all on the farm and categories are G, A, +/-, Shots, Hits, PPP, W, SV%, and GAA, a team is rebuilding and has been offered Sidney Crosby and Tyson Barrie for Jonathan Huberdeau. Is this a trade he/she should make?

In a word, no. Crosby is defying father time; but Pittsburgh isn't the offensive juggernaut it once was and Crosby's SOG rate has lagged below three per game in each of the past three seasons after never having it below three in his entire career, while at the same time his scoring rate has declined in two consecutive campaigns. The end result has been one 100+ point scoring pace season in his last six and his scoring rates in 2019-20 and 2020-21 representing two of his four lowest. His secondary assist rate was higher this season than in all but one of the past ten campaigns. It's fair to say he's still elite; but he's no longer in the tip-top echelon of forwards, especially given he's a pure center (i.e. the deepest forward position in fantasy).

Barrie had an outstanding campaign, which was to be expected in view of his team and usage. Edmonton is all but assured to let him walk due to getting back Oscar Klefbom and wanting to work Evan Bouchard and Ethan Bear into the mix. I'm not here to say Barrie's stats will crater, as he's scored at a 62+ point pace in three of the last four seasons; but it's highly unrealistic to envision him doing as well as he did this season in a future campaign, as Forum readers agree.

What's nice about Huberdeau is he's a 90-point downside player. Also, he's going to be a UFA in 2023, so this team should be able to seize upon that hype and trade him for some nice assets right about when it figures to be ready to contend again. Or he could be traded beforehand if a better offer is received. Think about it this way – if someone was willing to trade two still productive players for him now, that bodes well for flipping him to a win now contender at some point in the next couple of seasons in order to get one or more players more in keeping with a rebuild. In other words, clearly Huberdeau is a valuable, in demand player based on his generating an unsolicited trade offer of two very solid players.

Topic #2 – Who is the best keeper in a points-only league: Morgan Frost, Nils Hoglander, Owen Tippett, or Philip Tomasino?

What's not known is the other keepers, nor if this keeper needs to pay immediate dividends. These are important questions, since I believe there is good chance the best player for the here and now won't end up being the top guy over the long haul. Moreover, it might be the team has other younger players who are already planned on being kept, in which case the team either can afford to pick a player and be patient before he pays dividends; or if it's an older team with a short window to win, the choice might have to be a player who'll provide the most immediate benefit. Long story short, the answer is……….it depends.

As for the players, Frost is being brought along slowly; but with each passing season Philly's core ages and, as such, Frost should make steady strides. I'd label him as having the highest ceiling, yet he might not fully pan out for 2-3+ seasons. Hoglander, on the other hand, is the player of the four who's most entrenched in the NHL. Also, Vancouver is not brimming with highly touted forward prospects and Hoglander isn't well-suited for a bottom six role; together those factors should help him pay near- and medium-term dividends. The question, though, is what his ceiling might be, as he didn't have stellar stats as a prospect.

Tippett spent the bulk of 2020-21 with the Panthers and by Q4 was playing alongside Jonathan Huberdeau and Sam Bennett in the Florida top six. However, the Panthers are firmly in win now mode and as such if Tippett cannot carry his weight he could find himself buried. Tippett has home run potential, but most likely that won't be the case and as such he's a notch below Hoglander for now and Frost for the future.

Tomasino is even more of a wild card than Tippett. Were it not for what we saw this season from Eeli Tolvanen, I'd have worried the Preds might not make room for youngsters. Even still, this is a Nashville team that, despite coaching and personnel changes, has not had a forward score 65 points in a season in a decade, which is a telling stat. Perhaps Tolvanen and Tomasino will be able to usher in a new era of higher scoring? Seemingly Tomasino has the talent to help do so, but can he and Tolvanen make enough of a difference? With that question mark, I put him a notch below Frost long term, realizing though there is a decent chance he out-produces Frost if everything falls into place perfectly.

In sum, Hoglander is the pick if near term production is most important. Frost would be the guy to retain if long-term production is key, although Tomasino is a risk/reward option. Tippett is in the middle in both areas, but with some upside potential.

Topic #3 – In a points-only dynasty, how should the following players be ranked: Trevor Zegras, Jason Robertson, Alex Newhook?

This is a toughie, since Robertson arguably would have been the lowest rated of the three going into this season; yet he shined, whereas Zegras and Newhook didn't play enough to make a surefire first impression. Also, what wasn't indicated is whether positions matter, as Zegras figures to be a pure center, Robertson a more coveted wing, and Newhook probably also a center as well. All things being otherwise equal, if positions matter Robertson could enjoy an advantage due to the other two playing the deepest forward position in fantasy.

As for Robertson, dating back to 2000-01, his stats (40+ games, 0.85 to 1.0 points per game, 0.33+ goals per game, 13%+ shooting percentage) as a rookie wing age 21+ have three other comparables who've since played four or more subsequent seasons, one of which is superb (Artemi Panarin), another of which is pretty good (Bobby Ryan) and the last being not at all favorable (Colby Armstrong). Armstrong can be differentiated due to his rookie numbers being inflated by virtue of playing with Sidney Crosby and not even averaging two SOG per game. Ryan also isn't an ideal match; he was more of a sniper and there's an argument he performed above expectations due to playing with very talented linemates. That's not to say Panarin is analogous though either, as he was a few years older and also played with elite linemates. I'm not sure any of them are great comparisons in term of predicting Robertson's future.

The key with Robertson is he seems to make players around him better, a quality which Panarin has since typified. On top of that, Roberston is a winger on a Dallas team which has Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov and Joe Pavelski as its other top wings, each of whom should be slowing, making it so Robertson will be an offensive focal point for years to come. Plus, whether he plays again with Roope Hintz or is tagged to skate alongside Tyler Seguin, the result will be the same – top six minutes. The only uncertainty for the here and now is a spot on PP1, as a healthy Seguin will need to be on PP1, leaving three spots for Robertson, Radulov, Benn, Pavelski, and Roope Hintz. Most likely Robertson will be on the outside looking in, especially since he didn't force the issue by producing a mere six PPPts in 51 games, for a rate of one PPPt per every 8.5 contests. Looking at the 37 players who had a higher points per game rate in 40+ contests this season, a mere four didn't average at least twice as many PPPts per game. Assuming Robertson does not grab a PP1 spot, I'd look for him to produce at a ~60-65 point rate for the time being.

Zegras is exactly what the doctor ordered for a low scoring, rebuilding Anaheim team. As such, he should be getting all the minutes he can handle starting next season. The issue is whether he can produce well without a supporting cast. He's very, very good – but is he good enough to be able to do it all himself? That's not clear. Still, with point per game scoring in his last eight regular season contests, he should coast to 55+ points next season, with an outside chance of making a huge impact. But that chance is pretty remote and, as noted, he's a pure center versus Robertson being a wing.

Newhook has the opposite problem as Zegras in that he's a high ceiling prospect on a very deep team. Still, Colorado will likely groom Newhook to take the second line center spot once Nazem Kadri becomes a UFA in 2023, with Newhook getting much needed experience over the next few seasons so as to be ready to shine when handed the opportunity.

For 2021-22, the pick is Robertson. Looking beyond, I go with Zegras even though he's a center, as he should be really special and looked primed for huge success even during his brief stint with Anaheim this season. Newhook also should be poised to overtake Robertson before all is said and done, yet the "bird in hand" factor plus Newhook being a #2 center rather than a #1 keeps Robertson ahead by a hair. That means: Robertson, Zegras, Newhook for 2021-22. Thereafter I switch Zegras and Robertson.

Topic #4 – In a 10 team, points only (but bonus for PPG, SHG, HT, SO) keep 12 league with rosters of 12F, 6D, 2G, 2 Any and counting stats of the top 9F, 4D, 1G, which one forward should be kept: Kevin Fiala, Tyler Seguin, Travis Konecny, Tomas Hertl, Conor Garland or Anze Kopitar?

On paper, this is pretty close, as I could see a world in which all produce within five to 10 points of each other in 2021-22. Therefore, the decision on which of the six should be based primarily on risk/reward and whether the team is figuring to try to win it all next season or instead build for the future.

If winning now is the goal, I'd have a hard time not keeping Kopitar, as although the Kings have several centers just waiting for the opportunity to strut their stuff, Kopitar won't be elbowed out of the top-six and might even end up having easier minutes if opposing teams have to focus on two scoring lines rather than just his. To me, he's the surest bet for 70+ points.

Seguin is the biggest wild card, as he had a down 2019-20 then missed nearly all of 2020-21; however, he's still only 29 and, no offense to Roope Hintz, the most talented center on Dallas. He'll have a top six, top PP spot waiting for him next season. The question is whether he can return to form, in which case he could have the best shot of point per game output of all of them. On the other hand, between rust and lingering effects of his injury he could disappoint, even so far as finishing last among all six of them. He's the risk/reward choice.

Fiala was looking like a one-year wonder until he caught fire at the end of the season to post better than point per game output over his last 28 games. Still, Minnesota is not an ideal place for any forward, as they don't play their top guys a lot and no one gets heaps of PP time. The good news is next season Marco Rossi should arrive, and, if paired with Fiala, could help boost his stats. However, until/unless his ice time improves and he can find consistency over the course of an entire season, 65-70 points might be his norm.

Garland produced at a 65-point pace on a still offensively lacking Arizona team, scoring as many points in 49 games as he did in 68 games in 2019-20. He also had one of the lowest secondary assist rates of any NHLer who posted 35+ points and is the only one on the list who's yet to hit his 200-game breakout threshold. Still, he's doing what he's doing quietly, which might make him easier to redraft versus the others.

Like Fiala, Hertl improved as the season went on, and now has produced at a 71+ point pace in two of the last three seasons. In those two campaigns though, his shooting percentage was well higher than his norm, plus he doesn't shoot a ton and averages fewer man advantage minutes than any on the list.

Konecny saw his minutes, at ES and on the PP, decline, and with that his points. Also, he remains a low volume shooter. Beyond that, several Flyer youngsters are poised to see larger roles. He too might be a redraft given how poorly he performed by comparison to 2019-20 and his lack of a strong prior track record.

All things considered, I think the choice isn't Konecny or Hertl for the reasons noted. Garland might have the best long-term outlook, so he could be the pick if that's the goal. Kopitar is the safest choice if win now is the priority. Seguin would be the guy if one wants to roll the dice. Fiala is tempting, but for the team on which he played. If it was me, I'd go with Kopitar as the safe bet, Garland or Fiala as the long term play, or Seguin as the risk/reward choice.

Topic #5 – Given what we saw from him this season, and the direction in which Edmonton is heading, what should poolies expect from Jesse Puljujarvi in 2021-22 and beyond?

Everyone loves a feel-good story, and JP's return has been just that. I think we need to pump the brakes a bit though. Yes, JP tallied ten points in his last 14 games while skating with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but he didn't average even two SOG per contest and only once took the ice for more than 34% of his team's man advantage minutes. Yes, he logged tons of minutes in the playoffs, but had only two points in four games. JP also had a 48.1% IPP for the season. Certainly playing with McDavid and Draisaitl will lead to a lower IPP; however, that is extremely low, so low in fact it put him 20th from the bottom among all forwards who played 40+ games, with none who had a worse IPP having as high of an OZ% as his 59.5%. Not good.

Moreover, JP's shooting percentage was much higher than his career rate. To some extent that is to be expected when skating with two of the best passers in the game; however, that number will likely drop, as will his secondary assist percentage of 50%.

The other concern is Edmonton figures to have a good bit of cap space even if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins opts to re-sign with the team. It's possible one or more other forwards could be added to the mix and push JP off that line, in which case it's hard to imagine JP would do anywhere near as well in view of his SOG totals and other metrics.

There's also the case of Kailer Yamamoto, who a season ago was enjoying even more hype than JP, then proceeded to see his scoring rate drop by over 50%. Yamamoto could find his game again and, in doing so, either take JP's spot or allow the team to split up McDavid and Draisaitl as occurred in 2019-20. Or JP could see a similar drop off next season.

Objectively, it's difficult to envision a scenario where JP lives up to the expectations that will accompany him into 2021-22. Those who read my column know sometimes I like to map out scenarios in terms of percentages of likelihood. In this case, I'd put the chances at 5% that JP ever scores 70 points in a season, 10% that he becomes a 60+ point player for multiple seasons, 20% that he becomes a consistent 50-60 point guy, 30% that he averages 40-50 points for a few seasons, and 35% that he fades away and is out of the NHL in no more than three campaigns. The cumulative 35% that he's a 50+ point guy presumes he's able to continue to play with McDavid and/or Draisaitl. If he's separated from those two, then I can't see him being even a point per every other game player and his chances of completely fizzling go way up. Tread lightly is my advice.

Topic #6 – In a 12 Team, keep 10 League starting 12F, 6D, 2G and with skater categories of Forward Points (x4), Defensemen Points (x3), Goals (x2), HIT, SOG, GWG, PPPts (x2), SHP, +/- and goalie categories of GPT (x2), GAA, SV% (x2), SO, and where players can only be kept for a cetain number of seasons, a team has the following players (years left to keep noted in parentheses) who can be kept: Nikita Kucherov (1), Vladimir Tarasenko (1), Jack Hughes (1), Kevin Fiala (1), Alexis Lafreniere (2), Filip Forsberg (1), Kirill Kaprizov (2), Martin Necas (2), Tyson Barrie (2), Ivan Provorov (2), Joel Farabee (2), and Pavel Zacha (2). Which two should not be kept?

Kucherov, Kaprizov, and Necas strike me as definite keepers. The rest are up for debate. With a third of the skaters being defensemen, I like keeping both Barrie, who should regress if he leaves Edmonton but let's not forget has scored at a 62+ point pace in three of the past four seasons and thus should not be due to decline by too much, and Provorov, who is a great multi-cat asset and who, despite only being 30th in cumulative defensemen points over the past four seasons, stands 12th in goals, which are given considerable weight in this league.

That puts us halfway to the ten. I think Fiala likely deserves a spot, as once again he caught fire at the end of the season and eventually he should find a way to be more consistent even if the ice time situation for forwards in Minnesota is not ideal. Lafreniere is the least proven but also has arguably the highest upside given his talent and his team, plus can be kept for two seasons, so I think there needs to be a spot for him on the keeper list. Tarasenko is coming back from injury; however, other than Kucherov he has the best home run potential, plus is well suited to a league geared toward snipers/goals.

I covered Farabee in a Goldipucks column, where I highlighted his shooting percentage not being a source of concern plus his strong primary points percentage and rate of multipoint games. I think he needs to be a keep. While indeed no Pred forward has scored 65 points in a season in a decade, Forsberg likely deserves a spot too because of his across the board contributions.

That leaves the New Jersey forwards. If Hughes could be kept for two seasons I'd say he might deserve a spot; however, I'm not sure he makes enough of a leap in 2021-22 to justify keeping him. Zacha panning out is a great story, however, his shooting percentage was elevated and I don't think he is good enough individually nor surrounded by as talented of a supporting cast to put him ahead of the other keeper options. Those two are the tough cuts.

Topic #7 – In a league where goals and assists count for one point each and there is a bonus for PPPts, who is the better own: Torey Krug or John Klingberg?

The thread had this being a close match-up, and I don't disagree. A key factor not stressed there though is Klingberg will be a UFA after 2021-22. As such, concerns about the emergence of Miro Heiskanen are only relevant if Klingberg end up re-signing with Dallas, which I'm guessing he won't given his interests and those of the Stars, who not only have Heiskanen in the fold but also up and coming Thomas Harley.

Krug's initial season in St. Louis appears to have been a disappointment; however, he tallied nine points over his last seven regular season games, five of those PPPts. As such, he might have just been adjusting to his new role and thus, in the future, should score at a higher pace than the 51 points from this season. Let's not ignore that despite his big contract his PP TOI per game was down by a minute from his Bruins heyday and his OZ% dropped significantly. Between those factors and him being 30 years old and thus past his prime, expecting him to score more than 60 points in a season again could be a stretch.

Klingberg is two years younger but will be a UFA at the same age Krug was. Klingberg figures to be a prized asset on the open market and, presuming he doesn't stay with Dallas, is likely to be put into a role where he gets all the PP time and favorable deployment he can handle, much like what occurred with Krug in Boston and better than how Krug has been used thus far in St Louis.

Will Klingberg be poised for success on a new team? On the one hand, his PPPt per game rate this season marked a career high, yet at the same time his SOG per game rate has dropped in each of the past three seasons. Also, a closer look at Klingberg's 2020-21 shows he tallied nine of his 17 PPPts in his first 12 contests, with his PP scoring rate being much lower over the course of the rest of the season and his PPTOI dropping with each quarter.

This is indeed tough, as I believe Krug has a lower ceiling in St. Louis given his utilization; but it's unclear what the future holds for Klingberg, who'll be a UFA without as strong a track record as Krug, plus some of his metrics not trending in a great direction. Moreover, there's a chance Klingberg signs with a weaker team as a UFA that could hurt his output, as could staying with Dallas due to Heiskanen taking on a larger role with each passing season. In the end, I would go with Krug because things went about as bad as they could in 2020-21 yet he still managed a 51 point scoring pace, with Klingberg's rate over the past three seasons being only a bit above that.

Topic #8 – In a 12 team league, which one of these goalies – only one of whom can be kept – has the best chance to perform well in a league where Wins and SO are all that matter statistically and where 2021-22 stats are a priority but future value also matters to some extent: Robin Lehner, Tuukka Rask, Cam Talbot, or Marc-Andre Fleury?

First off, there's a non-zero chance Rask retires after this season, as we know from 2019-20 his off-ice interests are important and he's done pretty much everything a goalie can do already in his career. If he doesn't retire though, it's more likely than not Jaroslav Halak – a UFA – will sign elsewhere, meaning the Bruins will turn to one of their young netminders (Dan Vladar, Jeremy Swayman) as their back-up. If that happens, and in view of the window for the Bs to contend with the current corps starting to close, Rask's workload might inch back upward in 2021-22, especially having only suited up for 51% of Boston's games over the past two seasons, when his collective average was 61% in his two prior campaigns. Further, if he does re-sign with Boston, chances are it will be for more than one year, meaning he should have value beyond 2021-22 until he yields the crease to whichever of Vladar and Swayman has panned out.

Fleury has one year left on his contract; but he turns 37 next season, so 2021-22 might be all she wrote for him. It could be that Vegas keeps him, in which case his value and that of Lehner will suffer for 2021-22. Alternatively, it might be the team opts to trade Fleury given the relatively weak UFA goalie class, getting value for him before he retires or goes elsewhere while at the same time letting Lehner become "the guy," and then signing one of the many cheap veteran UFAs – perhaps even Halak – as insurance. If that occurs both Fleury and Lehner could have significant value for 2021-22. Either way, I see Lehner as being the unquestioned starter in Vegas for the 2022-23 season and beyond.

Talbot is the least attractive option, as at times in 2020-21 he was outplayed by Kaapo Kahkonen and the term and dollars of his contact don't force the Wild's hand in terms of him being the #1 or even 1A goalie. It's true when the 2020-21 season was on the line Talbot assumed the role of a true #1, starting 11 games in each of Q3 and Q4. He didn't play lights out enough to likely convince the Wild to not give Kahkonen the chance to play a lot next season and ease him into a larger role in furtherance of becoming the #1 once Talbot's deal ends in 2023, if not beforehand.

If possible, it would be best to defer this decision until after the summer when Rask's future will come into sharper focus, as will those of Fleury and Lehner. If a decision has to be made now, I'd say Rask is the "safe" pick, as I think it's unlikely he retires in which case he should be the only unquestioned #1 in 2021-22 plus have value for a couple more seasons. If not Rask, the choice is Lehner, who might step into a #1 role next season if Fleury is moved but otherwise will be the top dog by no later than 2022-23.

If it was me, I'd probably go with Lehner. Not only could he end up playing as much as Rask in 2021-22, but Rask was less consistent this season than any in his past, as for the first time ever he had both one Really Bad Start per every five games played and fewer than two quality starts per three contests. And as noted, at worst Lehner should be "the guy" by 2022-23 for what figures to be a still very strong Vegas team and when Lehner, at 30, will be at an age where goalies still tend to perform well.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed The upcoming edition of the mailbag has room for several more questions. To get yours to me, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.