Every year we set expectations on players and predict final season totals. Every year there are players that come out of nowhere and surprise us. There are those players that perform almost point for point as expected, those 'plug and play' performers. And then there are those players we set high expectations on that disappoint us to the level they can steal a season from your grasps.

In this article, for the next three weeks, I will review two players that fall into each category. The good will cover players that produced over expectations & provided really good to exceptional value to their cap hit. The 'bad' – perhaps better viewed as fair market value, or players that produced on par with salary expectations. The ugly, is just that, players that performed poorly and created an unexpected anchor on your roster.

The base method I am using for determining a player's value is 10-points of production per one million AAV. In multi-cat pools this calculation gets a whole lot muddier as you need to consider more statistical categories.

A couple notes on players I am eliminating from consideration. Elite players on friendly deals, you know, like Nathan MacKinnon, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, those types of players. Same to be said for the elite on expensive contracts such as, Connor McDavid, Austin Matthews & Artemi Panarin, we all knew they were going to deliver as they did. A second group I won't look at are players on entry-level contracts. Any time one of these players 'hit' before their ELC is up it is a boon for you the owner. I am also excluding players that disappointed due to injury. Afterall, the injury was disappointing, not their on-ice performance.

With basic ground rules set, let's go…

THE GOOD

Vincent Trocheck – Center – Carolina Hurricanes ($4.75M)

Are we still waiting to find out which is the real Vincent Trocheck. Is he a 50-point player or a 70-point player? Considering the two dominant seasons bookending a horrific ankle injury and recovery, it is my increasing belief that most players that return from a significant injury require at least a full season after they have returned to play to regain previous form.

I had expected a bounce-back year for Trocheck this year, but he even bested my expectations. Coming off back to back seasons of .61 and .65 points per game he had convinced the masses his 75-point season was a fluke.

With a cap-hit of $4.75M he still provided good value even with past two disappointing years. In multi-cat leagues, Trocheck continued to hold solid underlying value.

Yet, no one predicted 43 points in 47 games, a 75-point pace. With a return of 16 points per million Trocheck was a stud. In multi-cat leagues his value only increased with 2.3 hits and 2.6 shots on goal per game. His shooting percentage was a career high of 13.8%, yet it isn't so high as to suspect significant regression.

Having a vastly improved Martin Necas stapled to his wing all season could only of helped get him back on track.

Jack Campbell – Goalie – Toronto Maple Leafs ($1.65M)

It is really hard, if not downright impossible, to argue with this one. It took essentially a season-ending injury to Freddy Andersen for Campbell to get the starting nod, but when he did, he ran with it like Usain Bolt anchoring the Jamaican 4x100m relay team.

He started 12-0, setting an NHL record for most consecutive wins to start a season. He ended the season 17-3-2 with a 2.21 goals-against average and .922 save percentage. Admittedly, he slowed down at the end of the season going 5-3-2. Yet still played strong.

His numbers in the playoffs were even better. Yes, the Leafs lost the series, but Campbell stapled a 1.95 goals-against average and .934 save percentage to his resume in the seven game series.

Considering he was an afterthought for most rosters to begin the year, owning Campbell was a home run by the end of the season. If you were smart enough or lucky enough to own, acquire or claim him when Andersen got hurt, he would have locked down your goalie categories and helped teams into the playoffs.

His play this season has made letting Andersen walk into free agency a much easier pill to swallow.

Value per dollar, there are few this year that performed better than Campbell.

THE 'BAD' (FAIR)

Kyle Connor – Left Wing – Winnipeg Jets ($7.1M) 

He teased us last year with just above a point-per-game pace (84-point pace). Expectations were high this year. He had a good year with 50-points in 56 games (73-point pace) yet, he left owners yearning for more – Myself being one of them.

It was the pointless stretch from April 24^th to May 8^th, a span of seven games that really burned a lot of owners. He also averaged one shot on goal per game during this stretch. In head-to-head leagues this period of time was also known as the playoffs. This was not the time of year, for what would be on most rosters a top end player, for him to disappear and ghost your team.

He helped teams get to the playoffs, he just did them no favours once they got there. At $7.1M he still gave you fair value with that 73-point pace. For multi-cat pools, he provided 3 shots per game and solid power play production, but no other real peripheral value. 

It should be noted his ice time, while good at 18:45 was significantly less than last years 21:05. That's a full 2:20 per game less. That could easily be the 10-point difference in pace between last season and this season.  It's hard to see Paul Maurice putting any line out 21 minutes per game on an annual basis. Regardless, we all expected just a bit more from Connor this year.

Matthew Tkachuk – Left Wing/Right Wing – Calgary Flames ($7M)

It was a disappointing season for the Calgary Flames across the board. Perhaps the only positive was Andrew Mangiapane. A lot of Tkachuk owners would argue this was a disappointing season for him, and to a large extent it was. When we compare to the season his teammates just had, Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan it doesn't seem quite so bad. That's a bad comparison doesn't help, I know.

On pace for 63-points over 82 games, he was a far cry from his 2018-19 performance of 77-points in 82 games played but still not that bad. Simply put, he left owners wanting and expecting more. At $7M per year, he delivered 9 points per million of salary, just below desired value.

For multi-cat owners he maintained the same shot rate that he had the last three years and had his highest hit total of his career – not hits per game, but hits – period – and also increased his penalty minutes. There was more good news for Tkachuk on the multi-cat front than there was in points-only pools.

At the end of the day though, he didn't negatively impact your roster, he provided good value, but he still left you craving more.

THE UGLY

Pierre-Luc Dubois – Center – Winnipeg Jets ($5M)

After back-to-back seasons with a point per game of .7 and .74 expectations were elevated for the emerging power-forward. Things did not go to script for Dubois at all.

The poor start began in Columbus, followed by the trade request and then trade to Winnipeg. The change in scenery did nothing to elevate his game or improve his season. He ended with 21 points in 47 games. That .46 point per game left him with a 37-point pace. The first sub-50-point pace of his career. He also saw the lowest ice-time of his career at 15:00 per game and the lowest power play exposure as well at 1:32 per game. 

Stress is a wonderous thing. A lot of negativity was fired Dubois way from fans and the media alike. Dubois was a bit cryptic about his reasoning for wanting a trade. We often forget that players go through the same range of emotions we do. He's still only twenty-two years old and there may be no deep seeded rhyme or reason. Still, it added a lot of extra attention and pressure on him this year and a lot of it was unwanted pressure. It clearly reflected in his play.

This is a player I would tag as a prime candidate for a big bounce back season next year. That said, at $5M this year and expectations on Dubois entering this season, he was a massive disappointment.

Patrik Laine – Left Wing – Columbus Blue Jackets ($4.995M)

If you didn't see this choice coming I don't know what to tell you. One unmitigated disaster traded for another. There was no way I was writing about Dubois and not Laine in the same article.

Laine had 63 points in 68 games last year. Between Winnipeg and Columbus he put up 21 points in 47. Just writing this is cringe worthy. Living it as a Laine owner would have been tough.

As with Dubois, Laine did not click after being traded. His shot rate plummeted, averaging 1.5 shots per game less than 2019-20. He also saw a drop in average ice time of two minutes per game. Nothing went right under John Tortorella in Columbus.  The bonus for Columbus came from what seemed like a throw in by Winnipeg, Jack Roslovic. He took off at a level most expected Laine to perform at.

A drop in ice-time was essentially assured coming to Columbus. The ice-time leaders have been the best two-way forwards on the roster for the past three years, not necessarily their best offensive players. It's not a secret that Laine is not a strong defensive player. If Tortorella doesn't trust you defensively you can expect less ice time.

Perhaps a change in coaches will kickstart Laine back into the offensive force we expected him to be. 

A lot of folks expected Laine to produce at least at a 65-point pace. So the 43-point pace he gave owners was beyond disappointing. It's unlikely Laine owners are ready to sell low on him after one down season. I would agree with those sentiments and would treat this as more of an anomaly than anything to be really concerned about.

Regardless of what next year may bring Laine, this year is still stinging for his owners.

Join me next week for part two.

(All stats from frozentools.com & all salary cap info from capfriendly.com)

Follow me on twitter: @doylelb4