Fantasy Hockey Poll: Looking Ahead in the Prospect Crystal Ball

Rick Roos

2021-06-16

Avid readers of my column know the area where I'm least knowledgeable is prospects, as in my main league you can only own players who are signed to NHL contracts and we can only keep players up to three years. I realize that prospects are important in many leagues; given that, and in honor of the release of the Fantasy Prospects Report in less than a month (available for order here), what better time to have a prospects-related poll?

To that end, I picked 20 prospects ranked in the top 50 of the Top 200 Forward Prospects list, the top 30 of the Top 50 Defensemen Prospects list, or the top 100 Keeper League Goalies, with the latter being comprised of not just prospect goalies but also current netminders. Your job is to pick the five of the 20 you believe will have the greatest fantasy success over their careers.

The question thus becomes what defines fantasy success? It's difficult to specify; however, for skaters certainly scoring is key. However, in many cases true success is achieved via a combination of that plus other multi-cat contributions. A good example of success would be if the player does well enough to find himself ranked within the top 100 Roto Rankings with the longer one is on the list the more successful his career.

To make this more of a meaningful exercise, and to put all of you to the test, I've limited the voting choices solely to those who've yet to appear in an NHL game. Otherwise there are no restrictions, and I've included forwards, defensemen, and goalies, each of whom is listed in alphabetical order with their current ranking in their respective Top Prospect or Keeper List.

Alexander Alexeyev (Rank = 18th among defensemen)

So far Alexeyev has impressed with strong junior stats, then transitioned to pro hockey at a still somewhat young age, and third, and most importantly, achieved success as a pro, as this season he had nine points in 12 AHL games, made all the more important after a not so great showing while on loan to the KHL. He has great size and his goal-scoring rate increased each season in juniors. The question is whether he can be an heir apparent to John Carlson, as their styles are seemingly not well aligned and Alexeyev figures to be hitting his prime as the Capitals will likely be entering a period of uncertainty given their aging core.

Yaroslav Askarov (Rank = 52nd among goalies)

It's difficult not to have lofty expectations for Askarov due to how early he was drafted, his stats being quite good this season and downright superb in the past, as well as his opportunity to follow in the footsteps of a long line of successful Nashville goalies. Before we get too excited, though the last goalie drafted this early (11th overall) was Jack Campbell, who until 2020-21 was considered a bust. One note regarding Askarov and the one other goalie among the 20 voting choices – their ranking is lower because rather than being on a list of just goalie prospects, it's actually a list of goalie keepers, and thus includes mostly netminders who are already in the NHL. Askarov is the top ranked goalie on the list never to have played an NHL game.

Matthew Boldy (Rank = 27th among forwards)

It was an outstanding 2020-21 for Boldy, who followed over point per game college scoring with more of the same in the AHL. If he played center, chances are he'd have made his NHL debut in Minnesota; but the issue is he's a winger, which is a position, unlike center, at which the Wild aren't lacking. Whether (and, if so, to what extent) that inhibits his development is unclear.

Thomas Harley (Rank = 19th among defensemen)

With seemingly nothing left to prove in juniors, Harley spent this season as a teen in the AHL, where his 25 points in 38 games made him seem ready to take the next step. Although that may occur in 2021-22, his hope for making an impact likely will need to wait until 2022-23, with John Klingberg presumably leaving as a UFA in the summer of 2022. The worry is just as Klingberg appeared to keep Miro Heiskanen from reaching his full potential, Heiskanen might do the same with regards to Harley.

Alexander Holtz (Rank = 16th among forwards)

He's on the right team, as the Devils likely are likely eager for him to land in the NHL. His output for 2020-21 in the SHL was no better than 2019-20, making it so he probably won't be ready to make an NHL impact for perhaps a few more seasons and raising at least back of the mind concerns that perhaps he was a bit overrated on draft day.

Seth Jarvis (Rank = 22nd among forwards)

Like Harley, Jarvis not only landed in the AHL as a teen but seemed to adjust quite well, albeit in only nine games. As a forward though, one concern is the depth on Carolina perhaps acting as a roadblock to him coming to the NHL. Jarvis' ability to play center or wing should help obviate that issue.

Nils Lundkvist (Rank = 7th among defensemen)

Like Holtz, Lundqvist didn't make the strides many had expected from a player some considered the best young defenseman not currently playing in North America. The other issue is how well Adam Fox played, plus K'Andre Miller being in the picture, means Lundkvist might not be able to make an impact, although it also could alleviate some of the immediate pressure much like what happened in 2019-20 with Tony DeAngelo's success helping Fox adjust to the NHL.

Ryan Merkley (Rank = 13th among defensemen)

Oozing with offensive potential, Merkley should be poised to step in once the era of Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson is over. But so-so numbers in his first AHL season and the fact he's undersized do raise some concerns.

Jakob Pelletier (Rank = 35th among forwards)

What we've seen so far from Pelletier is encouraging; however; he's already 20 and yet to see any pro action. Next season should be telling in terms of what to expect going forward. The other issue is although he has flexibility to play center or wing, it's not clear if/when there will be a top six spot for him in Calgary, which has plenty of depth.

Cole Perfetti (Rank = 13th among forwards)

Strong AHL numbers – check, elite juniors pedigree – check, international experience – check. Still only 19, Perfetti seems like he's done all the right things, with only the NHL left to conquer.

Scott Perunovich (Rank = 11th among defensemen)

The Blues opted to take things slow, allowing Perunovich to gain valuable experience in three years of college hockey. And plans were seemingly set for him to play pro hockey this season, until he missed the entire campaign due to injury. Will the missed time, plus the depth on the St. Louis blueline, hinder him from making an immediate or even long term impact?

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Vasily Podkolzin (Rank = 21st among forwards)

After a so-so KHL season that saw him post 11 points in 35 games, he equaled that point total in just 16 games while under the pressure and spotlight of the KHL playoffs. He seemingly has the size to be able to dominate plus the talent to succeed, presuming he adds some bulk to his frame. We will have to wait and see how he adjusts to pro hockey in the US to get a better idea if he's the real deal.

Samuel Poulin (Rank = 31st among forwards)

The second generation forward fared well in juniors again this season, although it was already his fourth campaign there. What remains to be seen is if he can translate his success to the pro game, as his father was briefly able to do before eventually fading.

Lucas Raymond (Rank = 18th among forwards)

With Detroit having nothing to lose, many were surprised Raymond didn't make his debut during 2020-21. Perhaps the Wings realize how much of an asset Raymond can be and as such played a bit of the longer game, giving him another campaign overseas to continue his development. With Raymond having signed his ELC this spring though, he should land in the NHL, or at worst AHL, for 2021-22, and try to show what made him top five pick in 2020.

Marco Rossi (Rank = 19th among forwards)

Were it not for COVID, Rossi wouldn't be on this list, as he was not only ticketed for the NHL but a prominent role with the Wild, who were likely counting on him to center one of the top two lines. Will COVID have lingering effects, compounded by a crucial season off the ice? It remains to be seen, as does how well Rossi indeed performs.

Mortiz Seider (Rank = 17th among defensemen)

Speaking of top Detroit picks, Seider was in the AHL in 2019-20, the same year he was drafted sixth overall; yet he spent 2020-21 overseas. Detroit can use all the defensemen help it can get, so Seider should be roaming the blueline for the Wings sooner rather than later. The question then becomes whether he too can live up to expectations.

Daniil Tarasov (Rank = 71st among goalies)

Though it was just a limited trial, Tarasov's acclimation to North American hockey didn't go as well as many had hoped, as although he won four games and lost only two, his GAA was 3.16 and his SV% was .896, a far cry from the 2.07 and .925 he posted this season in the KHL. Still, he's just 22 and likely will be in the mix for a prominent role in the near future given that both of Columbus' netminders are UFAs this summer.

Lassi Thomson (Rank = 29 among defensemen)

On the plus side, Thomson plays for Ottawa, a team not afraid to turn to young talent given its rebuild. However, defense is a position where the Senators are well stocked, between Thomas Chabot and Emil Brannstrom. Still, perhaps Thomson gets traded or finds a way to make an impact.

Philip Tomasino (Rank = 11th among forwards)

It had been a while since a young player made an impact in Nashville, that is until Eeli Tolvanen stepped directly into the top six this season. Tomasino arguably has as much talent as Tolvanen and should get a similar chance to make an impact very soon.

Alex Turcotte (Rank = 30th among forwards)

With Anze Kopitar not showing signs of age and Quinton Byfield debuting in the NHL, Turcotte is being somewhat overlooked. That shouldn't last for long, even if it might mean a move to wing for Byfield or Turcotte, as the Kings seem to be eager to give all their young talent every chance to succeed.

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It's now up to you to predict the future in deciding which five of these 20 prospects will have the most NHL success in their careers. Please vote for exactly five, not more or fewer. To cast your votes, click here.

Questions for Mailbag column

Next week's column will be my monthly mailbag, which has room for another questions or two. To get yours to me, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

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