Geek of the Week: Stanley Cup Preview

Scott Royce

2021-06-27

When the final buzzer sounded Friday night in the Amalie Arena, the final matchup was solidified. This unique, one-of-a-kind season will come down to an all-Atlantic Division showdown to decide the fate of Lord Stanley's Cup. On one side, you have the reigning, defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning. That one comes as no shock, as the Bolts are one of the thoroughbreds of this league, and have been for some time now. And matching up with them is none other than….the Montreal Canadiens? Well, most of us didn't see that one coming. The "bleu, blanc et rouge" have played the underdog role in each of their first three series, yet each time they have answered the Bell (pun intended). Despite beating the odds three straight times, the Habs will be coming into this cup final as the underdog yet again.

Tampa's road back to the cup final wasn't an easy one, as they knocked out some promising teams along the way. In the first round, they matched up with the Florida Panthers. Florida's top-six is as deadly as they come, especially with Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau in the prime of their careers. Despite that, the Lightning offense was too much for Florida to handle as the Bolts went on to win in six games.

The Lightning followed that up by making quick work of the up-and-coming Carolina Hurricanes. The Canes have a superb young core of players and seem to have many bright years ahead of them, but in this year's playoffs, the Lightning made quick work of them, dispatching them in just five games. After the series had ended, Carolina defenseman Dougie Hamilton said what was on a lot of people’s minds when he questioned whether or not the Lightning cheated the system in terms of the salary cap.

For those of you who don't know, Lightning superstar Nikita Kucherov missed every game of the regular season after opting to undergo hip surgery back in late December of 2020. Had Kucherov came back earlier during the regular season, it would have created a ton of cap problems for the Tampa Bay front office to deal with, and the fact that he sat out the entire season actually worked extremely well in their favor. This is what Hamilton's comments were referring to, as he mentioned that the Lightning could afford to add some extra depth because of this situation. Many people seem to agree with these sentiments, but nonetheless, Tampa rolled on to the semifinal.

That brings us to the matchup we just witnessed versus the Islanders. It was a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Final, but sadly for Islanders fans, the result was similar. The Isles gave it their all, even bouncing back from an ugly 8-0 thrashing in Game 5. The series went the distance and when the dust settled it was Tampa taking Game 7 by the slimmest of margins, a 1-0 victory. I see a lot of similarities between the Canadiens and the Islanders. Both teams feature a very structured, defense-first style. It should be interesting if the Habs can fare better than the Islanders. 

On the flipside, Montreal had quite a road to the final themselves. First off, they matched up versus the Toronto Maple Leafs. It's a little ironic looking back on it now, but the Leafs ultimately gave the Habs the biggest challenge thus far. The Leafs had the Canadiens on the ropes after Game 4, but in typical Leafs fashion they blew the series lead and lost in the pivotal Game 7. Aside from the Leafs being the Leafs though, you have to credit Montreal's gritty shutdown forwards such as Phillip Danault and Brendan Gallagher. Also, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the incredible play of Carey Price, who looks to be locked in right now. The combination of Price's godly play and Montreal's team defense were able to basically nullify the Rocket Richard Trophy winner Auston Matthews and his linemate Mitch Marner

After the epic seven game series with Toronto, the Habs faced off against the Winnipeg Jets in the North Division Final. The Habs came out energized and emerged with a 5-3 victory in Game 1, however the major talking point after the game was the aggressive charge Mark Scheifele took on Jake Evans in the final minute of play. In my mind, this undoubtedly set a tone for the series and Scheifele missing the remainder of the series 100 percent played a pivotal role in the demise of the Jets. Even with that being said, it was shocking to see the Jets get ousted in a four-game sweep. The Jets had no answer for Carey Price as they would only muster three goals in the last three games of the series. 

The Habs continued rolling and would head to Vegas to clash with the Golden Knights. Heading into this series, I personally expected the stage to be set for ex-Hab Max Pacioretty to have a monster series and propel Vegas back into another Stanley Cup Final. But just like they did to Toronto and Winnipeg, Montreal neutralized Patches and held him to just a goal and two assists in the entire six game series. Though the series didn't go the distance, it was definitely a close affair, with four of the games being decided by only one goal, and three going to overtime. One of those three overtime games included the series-clincher, which saw Artturi Lehkonen take a sweet feed from Phillip Danault and beat a sprawling Robin Lehner just minutes into the extra frame. 

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That brings us to Monday night where the two teams will match up for the first game of the cup final. Despite Montreal overcoming the odds time and time again, many people still view this as a "David and Goliath" type series. For all intents and purposes, the Habs are still a developing team and their young talent are just starting to bud into promising NHL stars. Sometimes though, the playoffs are about getting hot at the right time and riding the momentum. I think it's been admirable how well the Habs have played defensively, but they will have their hands full with the Lightning. 

It will be very interesting to see how the special teams play out this series. The Canadiens have seen massive success on their penalty kill, averaging a 93.5% kill rate which is best in the playoffs by a ton. Their defense will be put to the test though as Tampa Bay boasts the second-best power play in the playoffs, converting at a rate of 37.7% thus far. This will be the key to the series, first and foremost. Above all else though, the young Habs players will need to stay in the moment and keep their emotions in check and not take any bad penalties. Having a killer penalty kill is nice and all, but as the old saying goes, when you play with fire you will get burnt.

Outside special teams, I also will be intrigued to watch how the Canadiens handle Tampa Bay's top six. The Danault line, as I mentioned before has been unreal, and I imagine they will continue to be effective. That being said though, they aren't going to be able to handle both of the top two lines so others will have to step up and contribute as well. I think the most important player of the series will be Brayden Point. In 18 postseason contests, Point has 14 goals and six assists for 20 total points. Earlier on in his series versus the Isles, Point became only the third player ever to score 12 or more goals in consecutive playoff years. The other two? Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux. Pretty good company if you ask me. Point was already a bona fide stud, but he has really cemented himself as a superstar in his own right and he is just as problematic offensively as Stamkos or Kucherov.

We saw in the first round versus the Leafs that while the Habs shut down the top line of Marner and Matthews, a player like William Nylander was able to come through with some decent production. I wonder if the Lightning can manage to do something similar. We will only have to wait one more sleep to see what happens as action gets underway Monday night! Hopefully you all enjoy the last series of the year before we move into offseason mode! Hopefully everyone enjoys getting back outdoors and safely enjoying the summer. Cheers!

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