Ramblings: Update on Jonathan Toews; Heinola’s role; Meier’s upside; Game 2 – July 1

Michael Clifford

2021-07-01

One of the big stories of the 2021 season was the fact that Jonathan Toews had to take the entire season off for an undisclosed health issue. When something like that happens, it's clearly something more than just a broken leg or torn rotator cuff.

On Wednesday, he provided some clarity on this:

I am not a doctor and this will take some more time to process. All I will say for now is that it's great to see Toews back in some manner and hope to see him completely healthy for training camp.

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Watch enough playoff hockey, and there are certain types of games that always appear in a series. There are games where that features great defence from both sides, games where it's a closer to a low-scoring football total, games where teams find both goalies unbeatable, and so on. Looking back, it's common to say "what if" one of those types of games turns out differently.

Game 2 between Tampa Bay and Montreal, as it progressed, felt more and more like the one where Montreal brought their absolute best and got goalie'd. They had several power plays, including a four-minute, and it took a weak backhander from Nick Suzuki to just give them a 1-1 game late in the second period. At that point, Montreal was tripling – yes, tripling – Tampa Bay in shots. It was a game where Montreal was completely dominant yet were one shot away from being down 2-0 in the series.

As it turns out, that's precisely what happened. With under a second left in the second frame, Blake Coleman converted a Barclay Goodrow pass to give Tampa a 2-1 lead. Another Montreal turnover in the neutral zone in the back of the net, this time with 0.3 seconds on the clock. (The official timer puts it at 1.1 seconds. Whatever.)

A late Joel Edmundson giveaway gave Ondrej Palat a gimmie and the Bolts a 2-0 series lead. Montreal needs to find a way to score more goals. There is a guy that could help them.

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In continuing my theme from my last few Ramblings, I'm going to discuss one important fantasy question per team. Today, we're going to get through a few more of these.

What will Ville Heinola's role be with Winnipeg next year?

I have spent a good chunk of my last few Ramblings talking about the importance of understanding player roles and coaching tendencies. Knowing what kinds of players are used in which manner by each coach can give a valuable leg up in the fantasy game. It can be a tedious process, but just having some idea of what to expect is likely better than just assuming every coach does relatively the same thing. So, with that in mind, let's talk about Heinola.

His first year in North America was a pretty big success, even has he began the season overseas. Starting in Finland, he posted 14 points in 19 games in their top men's league at the age of 19. For a comparison, at 18 years old, Miro Heiskanen had 23 points in 30 games in the same league. He then went to the AHL and posted 11 points in 19 games, while also getting a handful of NHL games. On top of all this, our Dobber Prospects' PNHLe has him as a first-line defenceman, largely a result of his great season.

Months ago, I thought Heinola would be a staple of the Winnipeg lineup. It isn't like Paul Maurice refuses to use young defencemen; Josh Morrissey was playing 19:30 a night at the age of 21 and Jacob Trouba was playing over 22 minutes a night at the age of 19. Maurice doesn’t think the good with Heinola outweighs the bad just yet and, I suspect, that will limit his minutes this year.

Here is the million-dollar question: does Heinola get PP1 minutes? Even Maurice can't deny he's a wonderful puck-mover, and even if he only plays 16-17 minutes a night, if that includes PP1 time, it's enough. But if that goes back to Morrissey or Pionk, it's not. I think we have to wait another year to draft Heinola with any confidence in the fantasy game, but I never thought we'd see Morrissey running the power play again, either. Sometimes, life finds a way to surprise.

Can Jeff Carter repeat his 2021 campaign?

It was a wonderful year for the 36-year-old. He had a four-year high in goals per game, a three-year high in points per game, fell just shy of three shots per game, and brought both blocks and hits for the multi-cat people out there.

Can he do it again?

This question has a lot of moving parts. Carter was the 2C when he got to Pittsburgh because of Evgeni Malkin's injury. Malkin played a handful of games at the end of the regular season, but it was mostly Carter as the 2C initially. In the month of April, with Pittsburgh, Carter averaged 17:26 a night. Malkin returned on May 3rd, however, and over the final four games, Carter averaged 15:34 a night. He was pushed to a pseudo-third-line role with secondary PP minutes. That is concerning.

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Where the moving parts come in is Malkin's health. He misses double-digit games like clockwork and is coming off a season where he missed 23 contests. It is not hard to envision times in the upcoming season where Malkin is out of the lineup for 3-4 weeks and Carter is playing 17-18 minutes a night. It is also not hard to envision times in the upcoming season where Malkin is tearing the league apart and Carter is playing 14-15 minutes a night.

Speaking of tearing up the league, we have to address Malkin's down year. On a per-game basis, across the board, it was the worst season of his career. He will be 35 for next season and has all those injuries in his past. Is this the beginning of the end of Malkin's career? And if so, does that mean more minutes for Carter no matter what?

And then the next question: even if Malkin were to miss time due to injury, does that guarantee PP1 minutes for Carter? The Canadian centre is not the playmaker that the Russian centre is. They don't really do the same things on the ice; Carter would be a better replacement on the PP for Jake Guentzel than he would Malkin.

All this adds up to a very muddled situation and I don't think there are easy answers here. I would be very careful how we project these two players next season. It is in the realm of possibility they help the Penguins win games but cut into each other's fantasy production.

Is Timo Meier capable of reaching his ceiling with the Sharks?

This question comes up because following a 30-goal, 66-point season, Meier posted 22/49 in a 70-game 2019-20 campaign, and a 12/31 year in 54 games this year. His goals and assists per game have declined for two years in a row, which isn't great for a guy turning 25 in October.

In the 19-20 campaign, the Sharks finished 27th in scoring across the league. This past year, it was 25th. Their entire core, save Meier and Hertl, are over 30 years old and a couple of them are broken-down defencemen. While there are some nice young players coming, or already there, like Mario Ferraro and Ryan Merkley, that isn't enough. This franchise is basically dying on the vine and we're throwing some water on it hoping it'll grow again.

A funny thing, when looking under the hood for Meier: his shot rate this past year was very much in line with his career, at least at 5-on-5. It was his expected goals rate that tanked, which indicates to me that his teammates are having a harder time finding him. He is not a guy that is elite at creating his own shots; something he shares with Jeff Carter above. He is a volume shooter that needs good line mates to help him really hit his ceiling. The question is whether he'll have those line mates, or whether that environment can even exist in San Jose with the declining talent on the blue line. I am not sure it can.

The good thing about Meier is that in a full season, we should get 200 shots and 100 hits from him. Even if he only scores 20 goals and 40 points, he'll have value in multi-cat leagues. But we have seen his upside; we know there is a lot more there. It may just take some time to regain that form, as it did with teammate Tomas Hertl.

Does Steven Stamkos have elite seasons left in the tank?

A litany of serious injuries for a guy turning 31 this winter is always concerning. Then again, Stamkos had posted four straight seasons with over a point per game up until this shortened campaign, one in which he was injured again.

The concerns start with the age and injuries, but don't end there.

First, it seems his days playing with Point or Kucherov are over. He had played with either of them at times over the last few seasons, but Point/Kuch have been the duo the team has stuck with when everyone is healthy. Not that players like Anthony Cirelli or Alex Killorn are bad players – far from it – but they aren't Point/Kucherov. We know Kucherov can help drive double-digit shooting percentages for line mates. We are not sure anyone else on the team can.

Next is his shot rate. At one point, this guy put up six straight seasons of at least 3.2 shots per game. His last four seasons have seen him fail to reach that mark in any of them, and crack 3.0 shots per game just once. His shot rate is declining, and though he's still a remarkable shooter, his ability to score 40-50 goals predicates on two things: being able to put up well over 200 shots and being able to score on 15-20 percent of shots. If he's putting up 190 shots instead of 240, well, that is a big problem.

Are his elite seasons over? I am not ready to say that yet. I still think he may have one or two 40-goal campaigns under his belt. But he also probably has 6-7 years of hockey left, and I don't want to draft a guy in the top-30 if I can't rely on elite performance. I am just not sure we're there with Stamkos anymore.

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