Ramblings: Top Frozen Tools Searches – Nugent-Hopkins, Fox, J. Hughes (July 4)

Ian Gooding

2021-07-04

Happy Fourth of July to all of our American friends!

Here are the top Frozen Tools searches for the past week:

The majority of these players are popular searches because they are involved in the Stanley Cup Final, so you're probably hearing enough about them from other sources. I'll discuss the other three, who are popular searches for other reasons.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Nugent-Hopkins made the headlines this week after signing his eight-year, $41 million contract to stay in Edmonton. Assuming he is not bought out before the contract expires, Nuge will be 36 years old when the contract expires. At that time, Connor McDavid will be 32 and Leon Draisaitl will be 33. All three are signed for the next four seasons, when Draisaitl's contract expires. With just over $26 million invested in the three players, the Oilers appear to have their core set for a while.

The $5 million cap hit seems like a very reasonable number for Nugent-Hopkins. Although his point production fell to a 55-point pace from a 77-point pace in 2019-20, Nuge has a fairly high point floor. Over the last three seasons, he has contributed a minimum of 20 power-play points on the Oilers first-unit power play. In fact, over those past three seasons, Nugent-Hopkins is tied for 16th with 70 power-play points, ahead of the likes of Sidney Crosby, Johnny Gaudreau, and Mika Zibanejad. Not surprisingly, McDavid and Draisaitl are first and second in this category.

Something that also helps Nugent-Hopkins' value from an even-strength perspective is that he is usually (but not always) on a line with either McDavid or Draisaitl. That doesn't necessarily translate to success for every player, as evidenced by the Oilers' lack of scoring depth. However, Nugent-Hopkins has a three-year average of 0.83 points per game, which averages out to 68 points over a full season. It's probably better for the Oilers to invest their cap space in a known commodity such as Nugent-Hopkins who has given a bit of a hometown discount as opposed to potentially overpaying for a player on the free agent market that may or may not be a fit.

Adam Fox

It may have come as a surprise that Fox won the Norris Trophy, but not because he wasn't deserving. Victor Hedman has been such a frequent Norris finalist over the past few years that it would have been easy to assume he would win, while the sky seems to be the limit for Cale Makar. Fox led the Rangers in averaging 24:42 in icetime while taking on top-pairing minutes, top penalty-killing minutes, and the first-unit power play. And of course, he led all defensemen with 42 assists and finished second among blueliners with 47 points in 55 games.

Maybe more from a fantasy perspective than a real-life one, the departure of Tony DeAngelo had a major effect on Fox's production. In his first season with the Rangers, Fox was on the ice for 37% of the Rangers' power-play minutes, a number that confirms second-unit power-play time. DeAngelo came off a 53-point season which included 19 power-play points, so it seemed as though TDA would again assume the first-unit power-play spot again. But then DeAngelo pushed his attitude too far and was then dumped by the Rangers. Fox's power-play deployment jumped to 70%, and he finished the season with 23 power-play points, an increase from the 13 PPP from his first season with 15 fewer games. Fox finished tied for second in power-play points among defensemen, by the way.

There's obviously a lot more to Fox's Norris Trophy win than power-play time. Subtract the 10 extra power-play points (which could have been more over an 82-game season) and Fox would have seen a minimal point increase as opposed to one that placed him among the top-scoring blueliners. A Norris Trophy should solidify him there for the foreseeable future, even with someone like Nils Lundkvist coming onto the scene.

Jack Hughes

Hughes made some modest gains in his sophomore season. In fact, it looked like he was poised to become a breakout candidate early in the season, as he raced ahead to six points in his first three games. He also finished strong with 15 points in his last 21 games. But in between he recorded just 10 points over 31 games. So like with many young players (remember that he just turned 20), there's a lack of consistency.

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In just his second season, Hughes led all Devils forwards in both total icetime per game (19:04) and power-play icetime per game (2:58). Whenever I watched the Devils, Hughes seemed to display his strong puck possession skills, which showed with a 55.1 CF%. You'd think he'd finish first on the Devils in scoring, but instead it was Pavel Zacha (50 GP, 35 PTS). Hughes finished second with 31 points. No, those aren't huge totals, as the Devils finished in the bottom third in team scoring (2.59 GF/GP).

Hughes has major upside, but how much of a step forward he can take may depend on what linemates he has next season. It seems unlikely that the rebuilding Devils make a huge splash in free agency or the free agent market, so it might be another season of Janne Kuokkanen and Yegor Sharangovich. Not that they aren't NHL players, but most teams could potentially surround Hughes with better options. Long term, goal-scorer Alexander Holtz might help Hughes rack up the assists, but it would be premature to think that Hughes will tear up the league next season. Be patient with him in a keeper format, though. 

Light news day on Saturday, so I'll go with a hypothetical question of the day on Twitter.

That depends on what level of earnings that you leave you satisfied financially and personally. If it's me personally, I'd take $12 million and the experience of winning a Stanley Cup, simply because I don't think I will earn $12 million in my lifetime (unless I come up with a hugely successful business idea soon). Plus $12 million may not just be $12 million. I can invest some of that money and I can continue to earn an income if I wish.

A player might view this differently in that they may only see themselves as a hockey player and will try to earn as much money as they can to take care of their family and be able to live out other dreams and ambitions that they have. I understand that. Earn the money while you can. There are a limited number of NHL jobs. A career-threatening injury could be right around the corner.

What is the price on the experience of winning a Stanley Cup? Not just hoisting it on the ice and spraying champagne in the dressing room afterward but also bringing it to your hometown, having pictures on your wall, and sharing stories with the people you know? If I have an extra $13 million lying around, can I buy this experience at a fantasy camp? No.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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