Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Many of you are in Salary Cap leagues; or even if you're not in one or more, a player's salary should be something to which you pay attention, as it often will influence factors such as playing time and deployment. With that in mind, this week all three players – Cale Makar, Pavel Buchnevich, and Connor Garland – are RFAs, so figuring out which one was too hot, which was too cold, and who was just right is all the more important. As eager as you are to read on, take a moment to lock in your guesses as who gets which label and then see if your crystal ball was correct.

Cale Makar

How did Makar improve upon a rookie season that saw him produce at a 72-point pace? Just by upping that to the point per game level, putting his cumulative scoring rate over his first two seasons at 0.93, third best of all time among d-men. With Colorado poised to remain an offensive juggernaut and Makar to be the go to guy for blueline offense, could it be we've seen him only scratch the surface, with even bigger things on the horizon? Most likely not; and in fact to expect point per game scoring again would appear to be a stretch.

What sticks out most in terms of Makar having overachieved is his SOG rate, which is 2.22 per game thus far. While by no means low, that's nowhere near the levels of d-men who've produced numbers – at any age – similar to what Makar has done in his first two seasons. In fact, if we look at 180 instances since 1980-81 of defensemen at any age scoring at a rate of 0.85 points per game (i.e., a 70-point full season pace), only 19 had a SOG rate lower than 2.22 per game, with just four coming in the past ten seasons. In contrast, exactly half of the instances were by those who averaged 3.0+ SOG per game when they met the criteria.

If we look at just the 70 instances of those who, like Makar in 2020-21, played 40+ games and scored at a point per game or better, his 2.4 SOG for per game for 2020-21 ranks him fourth from last, with the three below him being players who never again had a point per game season, and only one of whom scored at a 65+ point or better pace again in their career. Based on Makar's SOG volume to date and these comparables, he appears to have unsustainably overachieved in producing at a point per game level.

There's also the fact that Makar averaged one PPPt per every other game. Although I'm not going to argue with Makar's PP prowess, nor that he's deployed in a manner as to rack up PPPts, that rate is also unsustainable, as not a single other defenseman in the last ten seasons has averaged one PPPt per every two games. Had the 2020-21 campaign gone on longer, or even if Makar had played all 56 games, chances are his PPPt rate would've fallen, especially since his PP IPP was an off the charts 73.3%, which is a high for a forward and nearly unheard of for a defenseman, especially one who is on a PP1 with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen to syphon away PPPts.

Beyond Makar's PP scoring being unsustainable, it's likely he'll see less man advantage time in the normal course. Why? Because the Avs averaged 3.7 PP opportunities per game in 2020-21, with no team averaging a higher rate in the last eight seasons and 3.7 marking an increase from the 3.44 opportunities they had in 2019-20. With fewer PP opportunities to occur in 2021-22 and future seasons, Makar's PP scoring will be reduced even more.

There's also the matter of Makar's 63.9% OZ%, ranking second highest in the entire league behind only the one-dimensional Keith Yandle, who skated under 13 minutes of non-PP time per game. With Makar playing 20 minutes of non-PP time per game, the reality is his OZ% has to drop, likely quite a bit. Either that or his ice time will have to be dialed back, with the net result being the same in either case – fewer points.

Lastly, let's pause to consider how rare it is in today's NHL for a defenseman to score at a point per game level. In fact John Carlson doing so in 2019-20 was the first time it had been accomplished since Mike Green in 2008-09 and 2009-10. What happened to them during subsequent seasons? Green topped out at 45 points in 72 games, and Carlson followed his amazing 2019-20 with 44 points in 52 games this season. So not only is it a rare feat to do so, but it's almost unheard of to then repeat.

Make no mistake –Makar is a special talent and any fantasy team would be grateful to have him as a keeper. However, his point per game scoring for the 2020-21 season should be looked at as an aberration rather than a sign of things to come, as his SOG rate is too low, his PPPt rate too inflated, and his OZ% likely to drop. Individually and collectively these factors point to him being more of a 70-point defenseman, and that's assuming he maintains still favorable deployment. As such, Makar's 2020-21 was TOO HOT and he gets a rating of 8.5.

Does this mean Makar is a sell high? Maybe not, as although his value might not ever be higher, there aren't many other players out there who would be worth more even factoring in the points he's likely to shed. If you're open to the idea of trying to turn him into several assets to try and improve your team as a whole, it's probably worth exploring.

Pavel Buchnevich

It seems like not that long ago that Buchnevich was fighting to stay in the line-up and facing criticism of his overall game. Despite this, he's managed to see his average ice time and his scoring rise with each passing season. By the end of 2019-20 he was skating alongside Mika Zibanejad and posted 21 points in his final 21 games, firing 64 SOG. Then in 2020-21 he showed he wasn't a fluke, upping his ice time again and his scoring pace to 73. Still only 26, does Buchnevich have room to see his scoring continue to rise? Probably not, as given how he's deployed and his other metrics, a similar output of 70-75 points seems to be what we should expect in 2021-22 and likely going forward.

Disguised in Buchnevich's 1:50 per game season to season increase in ice time is that he actually shed four seconds of PP time per game and saw his SH time per game skyrocket from a mere one second per contest to 2:19 per game. Although Buchnevich made the most of his PK time by tallying four SHP, the reality is his non-shorthanded ice time dropped from 16:55 in 2019-20 to 16:25 in 2020-21. Looking at the 32 forwards who had more points in 2020-21 than his 48, none had less non-SH time, with all but two (Brad Marchand, Ryan Strome) having at least a full minute more.

Maybe this is just confirmation that Buchnevich still has room to see his numbers grow? Theoretically, the answer is yes; however, in actuality, not likely. For starters, New York seems content to not have Buchnevich command top PP time. What's more, this isn't a case of a player who didn't get a shot, as in Q1 of 2020-21 Buchnevich saw 3:17 per game of man advantage time, but tallied just two PPPts in 13 games. From there his PP time slipped by almost a minute in Q2 before dipping below 2:00 per game in Q3 and Q4. And with him only tallying eight PPPts on the season, he's not making a case to be reinstated on PP1, where New York has no shortage of capable forwards, namely Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Strome, and Chris Kreider, plus youngsters Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko.

The good news is if indeed Buchnevich is relegated to PP2 there still should be some talent there alongside him due to the depth the Rangers have at forward. But to be a top scorer you need PPPts, as looking again at those 32 forwards only Evander Kane (who had 49 points) had fewer than Buchnevich's eight, and everyone else had at least 50% more, with 21 of the 32 having at least 16, i.e., at least double Buchnevich's eight.

The other metric that increased every season for Buchnevich had been his SOG rate. Yet it held steady from 2019-20 to 2020-21 at 2.2 per game while his SH% rose from his prior cumulative career rate of 12.9% to 16.7%. Thus, he was unable to parlay his big gains in SOG in Q3 and Q4 of 2019-20 into a higher shooting volume in 2020-21. Moreover, of the 30 wingers who averaged even 0.8 points per game in 2020-21, Buchnevich's was in 23rd in SOG per game, with only two (Jonathan Huberdeau and Mark Stone) who averaged fewer than Buchnevich also averaging more points per game.

There's also the issue of Buchnevich's IPP, which was 76.2% overall. On the one hand that's a great number to see in that it means he was inserting himself into the scoring picture. But let's also not forget that Mika Zibanejad, with whom he shared the ice for over 80% of his even strength shifts, saw his IPP drop from over 80% to 64.9%, so chances are Buchnevich tallied some points that will go to Zibs in 2020-21 and beyond.

There's no question that Buchnevich has morphed from enigma to solid NHLer, gaining a coveted spot alongside Mika Zibanejad in the process. And although he has room for ice time gains, it's not clear he'll receive them; and even if he did, they likely would not come in the form of PP1 minutes. That, plus his ample shorthanded duty, lack of SOG (especially as a winger), and perhaps unsustainable IPP, likely means Buchnevich has reached what is realistically near his ceiling in terms of production. Accordingly, Buchnevich's 2020-21 was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.5 as he should be a safe bet again for 70-75 points in 2021-22 and beyond.

Conor Garland

Not drafted until the 5th round back in 2015, Garland cumulatively averaged nearly two points per game over his last two seasons in juniors, setting expectations for him quite high. Yet in the AHL he sputtered over the next two seasons until emerging with 25 points in 21 games in 2018-19, earning him a one-way ticket to Arizona, where he posted a decent 18 points in 47 games. He followed that with point per every other game scoring in 2019-20, then rose dramatically to produce at a 65 point pace this season on a Coyotes team that was 23rd in goals scored. Is Garland really this good? Not only is he indeed, but signs point to him continuing to improve his scoring output.

Looking at Garland's numbers by the quarter over the past two seasons, there appears to be a clear pattern forming of a player getting better and with room to still further improve. In 2019-20, in three of the season's four quarters he had of ice time between 13:05 and 13:10, and in the one quarter where he had 16:24 of ice time, he tallied 17 points in 21 games. Yet his SOG rate was essentially the same in that quarter as it was in two of the other three. In 2020-21, he had two quarters of point per game scoring where he also averaged 3+ SOG per game, without the variation in ice time as occurred in 2019-20. What seems to be happening is Garland is turning into a more consistent and potent scorer right before our eyes, yet it's disguised by season-long numbers which don't tell the entire story. If this trend continues, and I don't see it wouldn't, Garland should naturally improve in 2021-22.

Of all Garland's 2020-21 metrics, I'd argue the most significant is his percentage of primary points. He had 12 goals, 22 primary assists, and a mere five secondary assists, for an 87.2% primary point rate. To put that in perspective, over the past two seasons the players who had a higher scoring rate than Garland's in 202-21 and a higher primary point rate were Aleksander Barkov and Sebastian Aho (2020-21) and Alex Ovechkin (2019-20). Needless to say, this bodes well for Garland having future seasons of elevated scoring, as Aho has been a point per game player two of the past three campaigns while Barkov has been a 95+ point player in two of the past three and Ovechkin's accomplishments are of course spectacular.

Other metrics are favorable for Garland as well. For one, his SH% was 12.7% entering this season, yet he shot only 8.9%. While he did have a somewhat lower percentage of shots taken from 0-15 feet versus last season, if we look at the three stars who had such high percentages of primary points their cumulative average SH% during the season in which they did so was 15.2%, so it stands to reason that Garland should see his SH% rise given this similarity between him and these players. Plus, Garland's 5×5 SH% still managed to rise, from 7.9% in 2019-20 to 9.6%, so that is a positive takeaway as well.

Yes, this season Garland started 62.3% of his shifts in the offensive zone, a number which is indicative of Garland having been somewhat coddled. The good news though is as Arizona improves as a team the offensive zone starts for all their players should rise, making it so Garland could still be able to see his OZ% hover at or even still above 60%.

Garland's IPPs have gone up each season, from 60.0% to 69.6% to 73.6% overall and from 42.9% to 58.5% to 66.7% on the PP. Seeing these numbers mirror Garland's year to year increases in scoring is a strong indicator that his scoring gains are genuine. Moreover, there is still realistic opportunity for his IPPs and scoring to rise further, as this is a player yet to reach his 200 game Breakout Threshold. Even if his IPPs somehow don't rise, there's room for the Coyotes to become better offensively, as, since Garland has entered the league, Arizona has finished 29th (2018-19), 23rd (2019-20), and 23rd (2020-21) in goals, with only five teams having scored cumulatively fewer goals than them in those seasons.

Garland is not often mentioned as a future star in the making due to where he plays and his stats not standing out. But from what we saw in 2020-21, particularly his IPPs and his percentage of primary points, he's following the trajectory of a player on the rise. As such, his 2020-21 was TOO COLD and he gets a rating of 3.0, as he likely should've had 70 points and between him and Arizona improving he could be a point per game player before long. My advice is to trade for him in your keepers and draft him in one-year leagues, and then be prepared to be rewarded for doing so.

************

Questions for Mailbag My monthly mailbag is a few weeks away so you have time to get me your question(s). To do so, you can either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, (2) email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.