Ramblings: Fantasy Prospects Report, Top Frozen Tools Searches: Suzuki, Caufield, Kotkaniemi, Point (July 10)

Ian Gooding

2021-07-11

The 2021 Fantasy Prospects Report is finally available! Over 500 prospects are covered, which makes it a must-own for even the deepest of keeper leagues. Take my word: it helps me navigate through the prospects that I need to target in my dynasty league. Secure yours today by itself or as part of a Keeper League Pack or an Ultimate Pack over at Dobber Sports.

Browsing through this year's FPR, it is much like the ones you've come to know and love from other seasons. Rankings for both drafted and undrafted prospects, player profiles listed by team, upside projections and ETAs for drafted prospects, and more. And there's still more to come once the 2021 entry draft takes place.

The first thing I did when I opened mine was to check out the rankings and read the writeups on my keeper team's prospects. Those include the likes of Anton Lundell, Grigori Denisenko, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, and Victor Soderstrom. Then it was time to check out the 2021 entry draft rankings and who might be available at pick #10. Of course, that league draft won't happen until sometime in August, so I'll have a bit of time to figure that out. But at least I'll know where to look. 😊

Here are the top Frozen Tools searches from the past week.

I think we all know why most, if not all of these players are on the list (rest in peace, Matiss Kivlenieks). With the Stanley Cup Final finishing this week, I'll concentrate on players listed who were in that series. I'll try to address what their playoff performance might do for their fantasy stock next season.

Nick Suzuki/Cole Caufield

I'm going to lump these two players together, mainly because one player's production may be tied to the other. During the playoffs, 68 percent of Caufield's even-strength minutes were on a line with Suzuki and Tyler Toffoli, with even more minutes with just Suzuki. If it worked for both during the postseason, then I'd expect them to be a unit next season.

Suzuki's postseason scoring pace was practically the same as his regular-season postseason scoring pace. So what you were able to witness from him during Montreal's playoff run could very well be the type of player he is going forward – maybe even more.

 GPGAPTSPTS/GP82GP Pace
Regular season561526410.7360
Postseason2279160.7360

Dating back to last season's postseason, his shooting percentage has remained constant in the 13-14% range, which could put him on pace for a 20-goal season in 2021-22.

There may be some recency bias to the results of this poll. But for what it's worth, I voted Caufield. Regardless, he should be considered a strong Calder Trophy favorite next season.

Rookies are usually more difficult to project, but we were able to generate a sample from Caufield during the playoffs. We can also use Suzuki as a baseline, assuming they will be linemates again next season. Caufield has the higher ceiling, but in a full rookie season it might be safer to project him slightly lower than Suzuki. But before any final projections are written in pen, there could be some significant changes on the Habs forward lines.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Kotkaniemi's point total next season will be more difficult to project than Suzuki's and maybe even Caufield's. Is he ready to take that next step, or will he continue to battle inconsistency? Recall that Kotkaniemi was a healthy scratch for the final two games of the Stanley Cup Final. Having said that, it is also worth mentioning that Kotkaniemi was also one of only two Canadiens to appear in all 56 games.

Whether he is given regular top-6 responsibility could depend on the Canadiens' offseason moves. Will the Habs find a way to re-sign two-way specialist Phillip Danault? After being scratched for much of the playoffs, Tomas Tatar is almost a certainty to leave in the offseason – could that open up a spot for a left-handed shooter on the first-unit power play? It might seem hard to believe because he only turned 21 and was born in the year 2000, but Kotkaniemi will be entering season four of his career. Next season could be the season that he takes that next step. However, keeper league owners might want to give him a little more runway if he doesn't, given his age.

Brayden Point

There is truth in the numbers that Point turns it up a notch during the postseason.

2020-21

 GPGAPTSPTS/GP82GP Pace
Regular season562325480.8670
Postseason23149231.0082

2019-20

 GPGAPTSPTS/GP82GP Pace
Regular season662539640.9780
Postseason231418321.39114

As impressive as Point was in this season's playoffs, he was even better last season with the same number of goals and more assists in the same number of games. One advantage that Point did have during the playoffs was having Nikita Kucherov, who was Point's linemate for over 75 percent of the time. Kucherov and Point were often paired together during both the 2019-20 regular season and postseason, so not having Kucherov during the 2020-21 season had at least a minor impact on Point's production. Assuming neither player is LTIR'ed next season, Point could return to the point-per-game club that he was a part of in 2018-19 (79 GP, 92 PTS, 1.16 PTS/GP). 

Just because I like Frozen Tools so much, here are the playoff leaders in as many relevant Frozen Tools categories as I could find. One or two interesting names in here.

Goals: Point (14)

Assists: Kucherov (24)

Points: Kucherov (32)

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PTS/GP: Jonathan Huberdeau (1.67)

Game-winning goals: Point, Max Pacioretty, Ryan Pulock (3)

Power-play points: Kucherov (19)

Shots on goal: Alex Pietrangelo (76)

Plus/minus (best): Ryan McDonagh (+18)

Plus/minus (worst): Aleksander Barkov, Charlie Coyle, Vladimir Tarasenko (-8)

Penalty minutes: Matt Martin (43)

Hits: Cal Clutterbuck (96)

Blocked shots: Alec Martinez (72)

Faceoffs won: Phillip Danault (273)

Shorthanded points: Joel Armia (3)

Draisaitl hat tricks: Point (2)

Wins: Andrei Vasilevskiy (16)

Goals-against average: Jack Campbell (1.81)

Save percentage: Vasilevskiy (.937)

Shutouts: Vasilevskiy (5)

Quality start percentage (minimum 4 games): Semyon Varlamov (78.6%)

After posting my Seattle mock draft roster yesterday, I was asked for my Vegas roster. To be honest, I had completely forgotten that I had created one. After much digging, I discovered that I also created one on CapFriendly and written about it in a 2017 Ramblings. I tried to respond in the Facebook comments, but for some reason it didn't save. So I'll write about it here instead.

How did I do? Well, it wasn't great, but a little better than I thought. I correctly guessed five players, although only one ended up playing at least a game for the Golden Knights. I'm sure just about everyone that created a mock draft had Marc-Andre Fleury being selected, and mine was no different. My other correct selections? Teemu Pulkkinen, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Griffin Reinhart, and Alexei Emelin.

This article from Sportsnet summarizes the results and provides an interesting "where are they now" two years later. Both van Riemsdyk and Emelin were traded to other teams within days of being selected, as they were two of the 13 defensemen that Vegas selected. Pulkkinen and Reinhart both played for Vegas' AHL team but never for the big club.

So what we can learn is that after the expansion draft, Seattle won't be done. Probably far from it. And they’re not just drafting for the NHL team; they’re also filling spots on their AHL team.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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