Ramblings – Sneaky-Good Prospects to Grab Late. Eichel/Hall Bound to Disappoint (July 12)

Dobber

2021-07-12

Released on the weekend: the acclaimed DobberHockey Fantasy Prospects Report. Fifteen years ago I believed that, because I need so much information on prospects coming into the league for my dynasty leagues…other people would want the same thing. Kind of like a Hockey News 'Future Watch' but aimed at fantasy hockey and with more prospects covered (and in better detail). So my prospects writer at the time, a knowledgeable guy named Matt Bugg, and I launched the first FPR. It turned out to be nearly as big of a hit as the Fantasy Guide. Keeper League owners did indeed crave this information. Now the fifteenth edition is out, and the amount of writers I have contributing has increased: Austin Broad (first time contributing), Keith Duggan (who has now helped for eight consecutive editions), Jameson Ewasiuk (I think his third time doing this now), Tony Ferrari (managing editor of DobberProspects spearheaded this year's Draftee section), David Hall (former writer of The Journey and current associate editor of DobberProspects), Hadi Kalakeche (new writer for The Journey), Mike Kosciesza (first time contributing), Lucas Main (I believe his third time now? Maybe four?), Julian Mongillo (the second time, I believe), Brayden Olafson (former writer of The Journey who has done the FPR work several times now), Nick Richard (junior AE at DobberProspects, first time contributing), Hayden Soboleski (a long-time vet doing this at least five or six times now). And as for me, I wrote 14 team sections myself. And of course Mario Prata, who has been an immense help putting up with my last-minute changes and fixes. For a guy who is super-meticulous, I must drive him completely bonkers with my last-minute stuff!

EDIT: And I let out Pat Quinn in the above. Apologies to Pat, and with that I missed one of our longest and most reliable senior guys at DobberProspects! This omission was not by design, but a terrible oversight when I used a different list. But the fact is, Quinn (a long-time associate editor at DobberProspects) has been contributing for at last the last seven editions, often swooping in to help with other teams as the deadline approaches.

For those who never bought the Prospects Report before, it costs $14.99. BUT, for just $2 more you get the Keeper League Fantasy Pack and that has both the Prospects Report AND the upcoming Fantasy Guide. Yes, the Guide would just cost two bucks doing it that way. Crazy, I know. Anyway, the FPR has 500+ prospects profiled. Includes: how they've been doing and what to expect, and then we list their upside, their 3YP (expected three-year likely average production), wait time and certainty. Plus the fantasy outlooks on the upcoming draftees. The Mock Draft will be added in there in a couple of days (just re-download the product and it will be an updated version – when I update it).

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Speaking of Mario Prata, he will be spearheading the French effort for translating the upcoming Fantasy Guide. And we also hope to have a French section in DobberHockey with both original and translated content. If you want to be a part of this wonderful endeavor, reach out to us via the contact link at the bottom of the website.

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Every year a few prospects jump out at me thanks to working on the FPR. Guys who had been doing better than I thought. These generally turn out to be good finds, as historically they've dug up Gustav Nyquist, Jake Guentzel, Kevin Labanc, Sasha Chmelevski (still waiting on him, but he looks good) and Anthony Duclair among others. I also remember giving Brayden Point a huge boost in my mind after researching him for that year's FPR. I remember getting an email about it asking "are you sure he can get 75 points?" Even I went into it believing he'd top out at around 60. But after researching for the Guide, I went with 75 and glad I did.

Here are the prospects from this year's FPR that jumped out above initial expectation:

Riley Damiani, Dallas – I kind of already knew about this guy in that he was a point-per-game player in his first AHL season. I really like it when a player translates offense to the pro level immediately, skipping the usual one- or two-year development curve. It bodes well for the next (and final) level. These are the type of players who generally succeed, and are good, deep finds for dynasty leagues.

Jack Dugan, Vegas – As already mentioned, I love it when players move to a different level of hockey and promptly dominate. And Dugan has done it again and again. If Vegas wasn't so deep with the top six I would seriously bump this guy up the list. You probably already noticed he shot up to 26th in the Top 200 Prospect Forwards list I posted on the weekend.

Sean Farrell, Montreal – I know he's a long shot. And I know he's a long way off. And we reported and projected as much in the FPR. But he caught my attention and is on my radar. That 'project prospect' that I'll be rooting for over the next several years. So no, this isn't a player I'm drafting this year. Or next (as the FPR agrees). But I found that next small, skilled player who could become a 'Dobber Darling'.

Robin Salo, NY Islanders – The defenseman has been developing nicely in Sweden, with offence that is really coming along. As a higher draft pick (46th overall) he is going to given tons of opportunities, and the fact that he's been in the system for a long time (drafted in 2017) tells me the wait time will be minimal. Me likey.

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Whoever signs Taylor Hall is going to overpay. I'm not saying he's not going to rebound. I think he will. Maybe even close to 70 points. But it won't be enough to justify whatever number he signs for, and in the end the contract will be an anchor.

And while I'm ranting, may as well circle back to Jack Eichel again. Elite talent. If healthy, easily Top 10 for value in this league. But he's not healthy and rarely goes a season healthy. He's a 70-game guy. So whatever team that gets him will overpay for him. If the Sabres end up getting a disappointing return it will show that the other GMs are paying attention. That being said, why does Eichel want out? I hope the direction of the team is not a factor (but I hope wrong). The direction of the team is Eichel. It has revolved around Eichel since he joined them. I'm sure they would have loved to let Jeff Skinner walk rather than overpay him, but if they did that they knew their Golden Boy would be unhappy. So they signed Skinner and now with that contract they are chained to the heaviest anchor in the league. But then, another poor season (with Skinner leading the way there), Eichel was reportedly unhappy again. So Buffalo signs the biggest free agent possible. Taylor Hall. This is for Eichel, by the way. To keep him happy. And again the Sabres sucked (with Skinner, Hall and Eichel leading the way). So now Eichel is unhappy again? He honestly has nobody to blame but himself. They even stuck with a coach he loved… far beyond when most teams would have fired him.

And sure, the discussion about surgery/fusion versus rehab and the team wanting one thing while Eichel wants another, that's a major issue. No question. But if the team and player were in a good place, with everything harmonious, would they have come to an agreement on how to proceed? There is a lot of tension between the two parties to begin with, so if one party says "you should handle it this way"… would the other party even listen and give the idea consideration? I say no.

Any team that acquires Eichel takes on that same discussion about the neck surgery that he wants. Will they want the same thing that Buffalo wants? I have serious concerns either way – that surgery sounds serious (never performed on an NHL player before). And rehabbing? That sounds lengthy and in the end it sounds like it may not even one hundred percent fix the problem. Will it always be a question mark hanging over his head year after year the way Henrik Zetterberg's issue lingered over the final few seasons of his career?

To hear GM Kevyn Adams speak, you'd think that they have Eichel back on board and they're not trading him. But if we believed that, then the trade rumors would stop. And they don't seem to be stopping. Anyway, trade or not…surgery or not… I'm in two dynasty leagues and a keeper league, and all I have to say is – thank goodness I don't own Eichel him in a single one. It's someone else's conundrum.

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See you next Monday.

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