Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 team, keep 8 league starting 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G and with 4 reserves plus minors eligible players (ten can be kept – <83 GP for skaters, <51 for goalies) and with categories of G, A, Pts, PPPts, SOG, FOW, +/-, HIT, BLK; W, SV, SV%, GAA, a team won the league with the following roster:

C – Aleksander Barkov, Mika Zibanejad
C/RW – Blake Wheeler, Elias Lindholm, Joe Pavelski
C/LW – Brock Nelson, Tomas Hertl
LW – Alex Ovechkin, Brady Tkachuk
RW – Patrick Kane
LW/RW – Andrei Svechnikov
D – Dougie Hamilton, Cale Makar, Ryan Pulock, Aaron Ekblad, Matt Dumba, Jake Muzzin
G – Connor Hellebuyck, Semyon Varlamov, Petr Mrazek, Jack Campbell

MINORS ELIGIBLE:
Forwards – Alexis Lafreniere, Kirill Kaprizov, Quinton Byfield, Nick Robertson, Marco Rossi
Defensemen – Evan Bouchard, Nils Lundkvist
Goalies – Ilya Samsonov, Ilya Sorokin, Jeremy Swayman

The GM envisions, as its non-minors keepers, Barkov, Zibanejad, Ovechkin, Tkachuk, Kane, Svechnikov, Hamilton, and Makar, leaving no room for Hellebuyck. If no trades are possible, would Hellebuyck make sense as the player to omit as a keeper, especially given what the team has as goalie options in the minors?

First off, goalies comprise 10% of the active roster; but goalie categories comprise 30% of those that are scored, so the per goalie contribution to scoring is 15% (i.e., 30%/2 goalies), versus the per skater contribution of 3.88% (i.e., 70%/18 skaters). Right from the start, goalies are very important, and in Hellebuyck, we're talking about one of the best, especially with two of the four netminder categories rewarding skill and volume. As such, I think it would be a mistake to not keep him.

If, somehow, no trades can be made, the player I'd let go to make room for Hellebuyck probably is Kane or Ovechkin. Kane just finished his second straight season of declining scoring and SOG pace, although he also had a career low in SH%, so he probably should've fared better than he did. Ovi's SOG, scoring, and Hits rates were each four year lows. He also saw his ice time dip and he is three years older than Kane. Svechnikov probably will be outperformed by both in 2021-22 and perhaps even 2022-23; but his future is so bright that he has to be kept over them. All the others also are must keeps due to their ages, high upsides/low downsides, and contributions.

My take is Ovi should be the odd man out. Tkachuk and Svech will cover things in many of the same areas, whereas Kane is still likely to be more of an irreplaceable player who, as noted, also is three years younger than Ovi. If there really is no opportunity to make a two for one deal or to trade a player for pick, either of which would solve the keeper issue, then I'd reluctantly drop Ovi in this case.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team, H2H, keep 6 league starting 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G and with categories of G, A, Pts, +/-, PPPts, PIM, FOW, W, GAA, SV%, SV, who should the keepers be from this roster:

C: John Tavares, David Krejci, Joe Pavelski
C/RW: Joe Pavelski

C/LW/RW – J.T. Miller

LW: Kyle Connor, Ondrej Palat
RW: Mitch Marner, David Pastrnak, Tom Wilson
D: Roman Josi, Shea Theodore, Drew Doughty, Charlie McAvoy, Rasmus Sandin
G: Connor Hellebuyck, Sergie Bobrovsky, Tristan Jarry
IR: Jack Eichel

The poster seemed set on Eichel, Pasta, Marner and Tavares, and was leaning toward Connor and Hellebuyck for the final two spots. I'm fully on board with Marner and Pasta.

I like Eichel more so than Tavares, who I'm not sure makes the cut as a keeper. Either Eichel will have been traded and will feel like he's been reborn, or he'll be playing in Buffalo in furtherance of upping his value to help facilitate him being traded. The result should be the same – big stats. Tavares, on the other hand, and as was pointed out in a recent Goldipucks column, seems like he's at a point in his career where his deployment and numbers suggest his days of more than 70-75 points are likely over. Add to that his age versus that of the others being considered, and I think he can be ruled out.

Connor, despite his down season, is a wise keep from where I sit. He was snake-bitten in that he hit nine crossbars and posts in just 55 games, plus he compiled his 50 points in just 31 contests, showing he's still explosive but likely had some bad luck in his other 24 games. His downside is likely not lower than Tavares but his upside I feel is higher, plus he's younger and plays wing. Hellebuyck is also rock solid and one of the top five if not top three netminders in this format. He's a must keep.

Who to swap in for Tavares? Probably a defenseman. Picking which one depends a lot on what you make of Josi's 2019-20 output. It's difficult to not see it as an outlier, as he's produced as a 56- to 58-point pace in each of his other five most recent seasons. His PP scoring rate was a good bit higher than normal – one in three games, with it dropping back to one in four for the 2020-21 campaign. Theodore is six years younger and is looked upon purely for his talent for producing offense from the blueline. As tough as it might be to not keep Josi, Theodore likely is the correct pick given what they both bring to the table. My six would then be Hellebuyck, Eichel, Pasta, Marner, Connor, and Theodore.

Topic #3 – In a points-only dynasty, how should the following players be ranked considering a two to three year time frame: Quinton Byfield, Tim Stutzle, Cole Caufield, Alex Newhook?

Caufield is the only non-center, and young wings don't always score in droves. After all, of the 123 instances, dating back to 2010-11, of a player age 23 or younger who scored at a 65+ point full season pace while playing 40+ games, 68 were centers, which is more than the combined total of LWs and RWs. Plus, placing aside Tyler Toffoli's 69 point pace in 2020-21, no winger has scored over 67 points for the Habs dating all the way back to 2007-08.

The three centers all have an issue in that there will be another top center on their team, with it being Josh Norris in Ottawa, Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado, and Anze Kopitar in LA. We saw from Nazem Kadri that being the number two center for the Avs will make it difficult to produce big numbers, and he was even on PP1. Newhook might bring more to the table within two to three years though than Kadri did in 2019-20 and 2020-21; however, with MacKinnon looming large, it could be difficult too for Newhook to shine. As for Byfield, Kopitar might move into more of a number two center role, paving the way for Byfield to be the top option for offense. However, this is a guy who doesn't even turn 19 until next month, so it might be a tall order for him to break out within two to three years. Stutzle played quite well in 2019-20, but it was arguably Josh Norris who was the #1 center given their respective wingers. That being said, for Stutzle to score at a 45-point pace for Ottawa despite not playing much with Drake Batherson or Brady Tkachuk says a lot about Stutzle's talent.

In the end, I think Stutzle's game will be farthest along and Ottawa is a team on the rise, so I put him in first for the next two to three years. Second place I'm giving to Newhook, who should be the number two center in Colorado this season if Kadri is taken in the expansion draft or in 2021-22 once Kadri leaves as a UFA. I think he can do at least as well as Kadri did, perhaps even better.

It's a close call between Byfield and Caufield for the last two spots over the next few seasons. Although Caufield is a winger on Montreal, I think his game will develop sooner than Byfield's, so I have him in third by a hair and Byfield bringing up the rear.

Topic #4 – In a points only cap league, a GM is considering whether it makes sense to try and move Sean Couturier now, as he still has a year left on his inexpensive deal but then stands to get a big raise. If so, what bargain players does it make sense to target in return?

Couturier, in scoring at a rate between 0.85 and 1.0 points per game in each of the last four seasons while age 25-28 has shown his consistency, which has been matched in recent years only by four other centers – Nicklas Backstrom, who also did so four times in that age range, plus Anze Kopitar, Eric Staal, and Jason Spezza, who each did so three times. Given their roles, probably the best comparable is Kopitar, and he's proven to be able to stay productive into his 30s, so chances are Couturier can too.

The issue, of course, is Couturier could go from making barely $4M per season to double that starting in 2022-23. As such, it's not unreasonable to consider moving him. But even with his looming pay jump, and other GMs being cognizant of that, there should be a taker for him, especially if he's moved now, with the GM getting one season of Couturier at a cheap price tag.

As for who to target in trade, I like the ideas of Christian Dvorak and Ryan Strome as suggested in the thread. Vincent Trocheck is another option, as could be J.T. Miller, or perhaps Mathew Barzal. Trading for a draft pick could work too, although that's riskier.

For sure though if Couturier is not moved during the offseason, or early in 2020-21, he'll likely be pretty tough to trade once his new contract kicks in or even on the cusp of that during next offseason, unless perhaps if he's part of a multi-player deal. If "stuck" with him and his new contract, given what we've seen from Kopitar it might not be too bad of a situation. Still, moving him now is indeed the smart and proactive way to go in a cap league.

Topic #5 – In a dynasty league with skater categories of G, A, Pts, PPPts, SOG, +\-, PIM, which two of Brayden Schenn, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Sam Bennett, Jordan Kyrou, and Rickard Rakell should be kept?

I think that although his stats have been sliding, Kuznetsov tops the list. Either he's going to snap out of his funk and turn things around for Washington, who can use him to the their aging core, or he'll earn a ticket to a new team, which I believe will light a fire under him. After all, this is a guy who scored 159 points over the course of two seasons in 2017-18 and 2018-19 and he's not going to turn 30 until the end of 2021-22.

Rakell is going to be a UFA after 2021-22 and could be put into a much better situation on a different team, although he might even do well in 2021-22 if put on a line with Trevor Zegras, who looked superb at the end of 2020-21. Still, given what Rakell did in 2020-21, he's a redraft, not a keep.

Kyrou stormed out of the gate in 2020-21 and ended the season on a high note as well, but in between he stalled and he also never got a taste of PP1 even though Vladimir Tarasenko was hurt. What's worse is he was rewarded with more ice time after his hot start and fared poorly. At 23 it's far too early to know his ultimate trajectory; however, on a St. Louis team that's pretty stacked and which seemed content on giving Kyrou middle six minutes and PP scraps, I'm not using a keeper spot on him unless Tarasenko is indeed dealt, and even then it's still iffy.

Teammate Schenn dropped from a 62-70 point pace in each of the three previous seasons down to 53 in 2020-21. A lot of that was a poor IPP, which should bounce back. He also had a low (for him) OZ%, mostly due to Ryan O'Reilly seeing more offensive zone starts, but of the two ROR is better suited for a two-way center role. I see ROR drifting back into that defensive role, especially if, as expected, Schenn goes back to his familiar role of centering Tarasenko, if, as noted above, he's not traded. Schenn also provides nice across the board category contributions.

Bennett is a tough one. If he plays like he did during his end of season stint in Florida he's the easy second keep. After all, he shoots, gets PIM, and was seeing PP time. Still though, his spot there is not set in stone, and one can't help but wonder if what we saw was him playing well on the cusp of becoming an RFA.

It's a question of whether to go with Schenn or Bennett in addition to Kuznetsov. Schenn's value is at an all-time low, making him an easier redraft than Bennett, whom everyone will be coveting after what he did on the Panthers. Bennett also is a winger, which is more of a difficult position to fill in fantasy than center. In the end the decision likely hinges on what the team's other keepers are, as if they are steady and dependable, then going for the risk/reward of Bennett has added lure. But if they include some who are themselves risk/reward guys, then perhaps the higher downside of Schenn is the right pick.

Topic #6 – In a salary cap league, how should Kasperi Kapanen, Rickard Rakell and Robby Fabbri, each of whom will be on the last year of their respective deals in 2021-21, be rated?

One key is Kapanen and Fabbri will be RFAs, while Rakell will be a UFA. While that should result in Rakell having a considerably larger cap hit starting in 2022-23, he might be worth it if he goes to a team with a lot of firepower.

I'll start with Fabbri, whom I now put into the same category of Ondrej Kase as a player who had the gifts to succeed but whose injury track record has not only made him a fantasy headache but also jeopardized his NHL future. Yes, Fabbri will be fortunate in that he plays for Detroit and thus, if healthy, should have a top six spot. But will he be slotted on the top line or even PP1? And if so, can he stay healthy long enough to capitalize? Let's also not forget despite his hype he's never scored at even a 50 point pace and is now 25. Yes, his cap of $2.95M is the least for 2021-22 and he probably will be making the least as well in 2022-23 and going forward, but there's a reason for that. My view on Fabbri is I'm not touching him because he's too much of a risk and not even that much of a great bet to do well if by some miracle he stays healthy.

The Pens paid a good price to get Kapanen, so clearly he figures into their plans. That having been said, name me the last Pens winger who was a fantasy success without being on PP1? You have to go back a decade to Pascal Dupuis, who, despite being tethered to Sidney Crosby, still only managed 59 points for the Pens, and he averaged more than a shot per game better than what Kapanen did in 2020-21. Moreover, the spots on Crosby's line now appear to be occupied by Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust, making it so Kapanen would likely flank Evgeni Malkin, who last season showed us that age and injuries may be catching up to him. Kapanen is tantalizing because of his potential and team; but without more SOG and PP Time, it's difficult to envision him doing much better than 65 points per campaign, if even that.

Rakell had a poor season; however, he was still shooting just as much as normal and had a SH% nearly half his normal rate, which means he should've had a handful of added goals and voila he's back above a 50-point pace for the season, and that's on the lowly Ducks, who had the worst PP conversion percentage of any NHL team in at least the last 30 seasons and one of the ten worst goals per game rates of any team in the last decade. For him to do even as well as he did speaks to his talent. Plus, with Trevor Zegras, who was a point per gamer in his last eight contests, set to be with the team for good, Rakell should have a top tier center for the first time since Ryan Getzlaf's game started to slip a few seasons ago. Let's also not forget Rakell will be playing for a new UFA deal, and thus will have added motivation to perform well.

In the forum thread the consensus was Kapanen, who makes less than Rakell this season ($3.2M vs. $3.789M) and likely will be much lower paid starting in 2022-23. However, I worry Kapanen is not enough of a shooter, will lack PP1 time, and will be there as Crosby and Malkin start to slide due to age. Rakell should put up stronger numbers in 2021-22 and be a highly coveted UFA, landing perhaps in a spot that reignites him. If the team has a cap crunch, then bite the bullet and go with Kapanen. Otherwise, I like Rakell.

Topic #7 – In a 16 team, keep 15, H2H league, counting G, A, BLK, +/-, PPPT+SHP, which three of the following should be kept: Mario Ferraro, K’Andre Miller, Alexander Romanov, Ville Heinola, Rasmus Andersson, Evan Bouchard?

The first cut is Ferraro, no question. He was one of just seven rearguards in 2020-21 to average 22:00+ per game yet not score at a 25-point full season pace. He's a great success at 22….in real life. For fantasy, he probably doesn't project to be a decent enough producer to be considered as a keeper among these six, as he barely averaged one SOG per game and, perhaps even more importantly, had an offensive zone starting percentage of 40.2%, which was 17th lowest of all defensemen who played 30+ games in 2020-21, with no one who had a lower OZ% having as much ice time or being as young. Simply put, he's being groomed as a defensive defenseman, so he'll have little to no fantasy value, outside of deeper multicat leagues.

Andersson also would not make my list. He was given every opportunity to succeed by Calgary this season yet failed to make much of an impact on the scoresheet. His lack of success was especially glaring on the PP, where he had the 18th most PP minutes of any d-man this season yet his six PPPts tied him for just 46th in that area. With what the Flames have in the pipeline, headed by one of the best young defensemen prospects in Juuso Valimaki, the experiment of having Andersson be "the guy" likely will be one and done, with him taking on more of a role such that although it likely won't result in him being a purely defensive defenseman ala Ferraro, he'll probably produce only in the 25 to 35 point range going forward.

Miller stepped in nicely as a rookie, playing over 21:00 per game and ending the season at +9, with no rookie d-man who played in as many games having a better +/-. Yet with him barely averaging a SOG per contest, not blocking tons of shots, and getting PP scraps, and the reality of Adam Fox having a huge season and Nils Lundqvist ready to make a splash, Miller too seems like he's not going to be a major fantasy asset and instead be more of a 25-35 point guy.

Romonov played the fewest minutes per game of those already mentioned, and his strength lies in hits, not blocks. He also wasn't a big shooter either. Still, Montreal's defensive corps is aging and it's also one of very few, if any, teams without a defensemen in the Top 50 Prospects List, so the road for him to shine is there. He's also young enough to morph his playing style.

Bouchard is tops on the list. Tyson Barrie likely will walk as a UFA; and even if Oscar Klefbom is back to full health for 2021-22 Bouchard seems like the heir apparent to being the top option for blueline offense for the Oilers, which is akin to hitting the fantasy lottery. After all, let's not forget Klefbom led all defensemen in average PP time per game in 2019-20, and Barrie saw the sixth most PP minutes this season, tying for second overall in PPPts by a d-man. Bouchard is a must keep.

Winnipeg has taken its time with Heinola; however, I don't see that as him having roadblocks to a prime spot on the Jets blueline. Josh Morrissey didn't set the world on fire on the PP, what with the 16th most PP minutes among rearguards but only the 27th most PPPts. And the team seems reluctant to put Neal Pionk in that role even though he's tasted success. The door seems to be wide open for Heinola once he gets a chance to seize his opportunity.

The "easy" keeps are Bouchard and Heinola. The third is tougher. If the desire is to have the guaranteed highest floor, but a lower possible ceiling, then Andersson is the safest pick. On the flip side, the risk/reward guy is Romanov, who could have a top role within a couple of seasons. The last choice is essentially situational, depending on the team's desire to win now and how much risk it's carrying in its other keepers.

Topic #8 – In a 10 team, keep 5 league starting 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G (4 Bench) and with skater categories of G, A, STP, SOG, TOI, HIT, BLK and goalie categories of Wx2+OTL+SHL, SV%, SO, a team has projected keepers of Nathan MacKinnon, Mika Zibanejad, Andrei Svechnikov, Nicolaj Ehlers, and Andrei Vasilevskiy but also no picks in the first seven rounds of its league's draft for 2021-22. Would it make sense to pitch Vas to the Nikita Kucherov owner?

In a keep five league with nine other teams and no picks in rounds one through seven, that means 70 players will have been selected before this team adds its sixth player. The bad news is that means this team will not be able to compete for 2021-22. The good news is in a league where only 5 players are kept, and given the ages/trajectories of his keepers from this year, he can just head into 2022-23 with the same core – and, this time, a full slate of draft picks – and be right in the thick of it again. In fact, by knowing it's out of the picture this season, the team can try to stockpile good picks for 2022-23 and help give it a better chance to be a favorite.

Knowing that 2021-22 is a lost cause may also help with the Kuch vs. Vas debate. Kucherov will be 29 upon entering 2022-23, which is by no means over the hill but perhaps an age where he might be starting to slow, especially since players like Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman will be on the wrong side of 30, making the team around him presumably less of an offensive dynamo and, in turn, likely negatively affecting Kuch's value. As for Vas, he'll be 28, which for a goalie is just entering one's prime. Even if the team in front of him loses a step offensively, it still should be strong overall.

A key is to look at position-by-position contribution to the league's categories. Yes, goalie stats only contribute to 30% of the categories and goalies only comprise 12.5% of active line-ups; but each goalie thus contributes to 15% of the categories, versus each of 13 skaters contributing only 5.4% (i.e., 70%/13). A goalie is nearly three times as valuable as a skater. However, with only five keepers, most teams likely won't bother to keep a goalie, as they want to hold the best of the best in terms of skaters and realize in today's NHL there are very few sure things when it comes to goalies. Of course, Vas is one of those sure things, as since becoming a #1 in 2016-17 not only is he easily tops when it comes to WX2+OTL+SHL, but he's tied for first in cumulative SV% and SO, and is the only goalie in the top five for both cumulative SV% and SO over that period. Also, by owning Vas, one can take a vastly different approach to drafting other goalies, as while the other teams will be worrying about the position and panic picking during goalie runs during the draft, this team can sit back and take a far more relaxed approach. That's huge.

If it was me, I wouldn't make the trade. Kucherov's value is sky high coming off the playoffs, and you don't want to buy high. I also worry about him and his team's offense in two seasons more than I worry about Vas' situation. Don't make the trade and instead focus 2021-22 on finding a way to upgrade from Ehlers as a keeper, as while he's talented he's not on par with the others. Entering 2022-23 with Vas, Zibs, Svech, Mac, and another stud would put this team right back in the driver's seat.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of the mailbag has room for several more questions. To get yours to me, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.