The Journey: 2021 NHL Mock Draft – Picks 1-16
Hadi Kalakeche
2021-07-17
Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing Fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we will be playing out the 2021 NHL Draft and attempting to predict teams' selections based on their needs, in a year where they matter more than ever. As discussed in last week's post, the 2021 NHL Draft is setting up to be the most volatile round of selections in recent draft history, with no consensus among the top-10 and very little to separate prospects in the middle of the pack.
The restrictions surrounding COVID-19 have made video scouting more relied upon than ever before, especially at the beginning of the global shutdown that halted travel and arena attendance. Footage and games from the USHL and Europe were plentiful and easy to obtain, whereas the OHL simply did not have a 2020-21 season from which to evaluate their prospects. This draft will reflect that in a sense, but the main rationale behind each selection is the team's needs and previous drafting tendencies.
Without further ado, here is our mock draft of the first 16 selections, with teams' draft order updated to reflect recent trade history (keep in mind that so many pick trades occur at the draft table, and some of these picks might move around a bunch; this is a mock draft reflecting teams' current draft positions, and how they should play out if everything stays the same).
1. Buffalo Sabres – Owen Power, LD – U. of Michigan, NCAA
The consensus first-overall pick among TSN's mid-season rankings, Owen Power's 6-5, 214-pound frame has a lot to do with his constant appearance among the 2021 NHL Draft's top-three. He uses his stick and reach intelligently, breaking off passes and collecting loose pucks left and right.
There are worrying warts in his defensive game, such as a physical presence that lacks for his size and the tendency to bobble loose pucks when recovering them along the boards under pressure, but Power's skating, passing, shooting, stickhandling and positioning make for an interesting profile with a high floor, one that almost guarantees him an NHL spot. A safe pick for a Sabres team that is looking for stability on the back-end, with Rasmus Dahlin and his fellow Buffalo blueliners performing at a worse level in 2021 than could ever be anticipated.
Floor: top-6 NHL defenseman
Ceiling: #2-3 all-situations defenseman
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 18th
2. Seattle Kraken – William Eklund, C/W – Djurgårdens IF, SHL
One of the most intelligent prospects of this draft class, Eklund constantly controls the pace of the game, stopping and starting, accelerating and slowing down to make the game ebb and flow to his rhythm. He has soft hands, can change directions quickly, and is always deceiving opponents with his eyes, shoulders and stick.
His small frame at 5-10, 175 pounds puts him at a slight disadvantage when battling for pucks, but he has the brain to outsmart defenders on the forecheck with an active stick, bypassing the physical element altogether. He rarely keeps to the perimeter, often diving deep in-zone and in-between defenders to cause trouble in coverage. Has a lot of projectable NHL tools, and has produced at historical levels in the SHL (23 points in 40 games at 18 years old). A high-ceiling forward who can play center or wing, which is exactly what the Kraken need to start off their first-ever NHL draft.
Floor: Bottom-six winger
Ceiling: First-line productive center, both special team units.
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 8th
3. Anaheim Ducks – Matthew Beniers, C – U. of Michigan, NCAA
The second of three Michigan players in the top-10, Beniers' bread-and-butter is his constant tenacity, which reflects itself in his sound defensive game and his outstanding forechecking ability. His skating requires slight fine-tuning but he has a strong base that lets him retain more energy while striding than the average skater.
Beniers' puck skills (shooting, passing and stickhandling) are above-average but do not blow you out of your chair. His ceiling is therefore not as high-end as some of his peers in this first round, but he is the type of player that coaches love to have on their team. A perfect fit behind Trevor Zegras in Anaheim's center depth chart, and a player who will constantly make life difficult for the opposition's top-six scoring elements.
Floor: Fourth-line energy forward
Ceiling: Top-six buzzsaw center, high-end penalty-killer
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 14th
4. New Jersey Devils – Luke Hughes, LD – USNTDP, USHL
The youngest of the Hughes brothers, Luke is physically a head above Jack and Quinn at 6-2, but his skating is almost as sound as his seniors. A wide base, strong ankle flexion and quick feet make him a treat to watch in transition, as he blows past coverage and walks into the offensive zone with little to no effort. His skating routes could use some variety, which is an easily-teachable habit for a defenseman who loves carrying the puck as much as Hughes does.
He boasts sound puck skills except for a below-average shot, but Hughes will likely fill out his frame and build the required upper-body strength to create a heavier release. On the defensive side of the game, Hughes often relies exclusively on his stick; adding muscle will also help him add a physical element to his profile of smart stick defending and aggressive box-outs. The Devils would be ecstatic to reunite him with his brother Jack, who has already expressed how meaningful it would be to have his brother join the organization on July 23.
Floor: NHL depth defender, fringe power-play option
Ceiling: #1-2 puck-moving defenseman, power-play quarterback
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 21st
5. Columbus Blue Jackets – Brandt Clarke, RD – Nove Zamky, Slovakia
Clarke's game is an alluring mixture of smarts, poise and two-way prowess, on top of a projectable NHL frame (6-2, 190 pounds). His skating is not polished and will require in-depth work to make him a surefire NHL defenseman, but the way he thinks the game in terms of closing in on the slot, joining the rush at timely moments and defending in-zone lead to the conclusion that Clarke will likely overcome any skating issues he currently has.
As the Blue Jackets will likely get rid of Seth Jones this offseason, Clarke joining their organization will likely allow the team to feel safe in the knowledge that a high-end defender is coming up the pipeline sooner than later. Expect to see Clarke in the NHL in two to three years, as the OHL (hopefully) gets back underway and he returns to play on familiar soil.
Floor: AHL top-pairing defenseman
Ceiling: #2-3 all-situations defenseman, both special team units
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 28th
6. Detroit Red Wings – Simon Edvinsson, LD, Frölunda J20, SuperElit
Edvinsson's blend of size and speed makes him a unique prospect, as not very many 6-5 defensemen can fly like he does. His ability to get from the defensive zone to the offensive zone is near-unrivalled in this year's selection, and he can stickhandle through even the sturdiest of defenses.
His decision-making, however, will need to improve greatly if he wishes to settle in the NHL; he will often try hail-Mary passes out of his zone that will result in icings, and he dumps the puck out when faced with pressure to an extent that regularly puts the puck on his opponents' sticks. The Red Wings will likely believe they have a shot at correcting these issues, and they might very well be right. Their knack for drafting and developing Swedes cannot harm Edvinsson's development in the slightest, and seeing him next to Moritz Seider for the next 10-15 years would be something to behold.
Floor: Perennial SHL defenseman
Ceiling: #2-3 puck-moving defenseman, power-play quarterback
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 40th
7. San Jose Sharks – Jesper Wallstedt, G, Luleå HF, SHL
Goaltender scouts should honestly be paid twice as much as the rest of us; the job is taxing and requires minute attention to detail and a knowledge of projectable goaltender tools that most scouts cannot encompass fully, especially if they've never played the position. Having talked with goaltender scouts in North America and abroad about Wallstedt, it is so clear that he is the top netminder available in the 2021 NHL Draft. In last week's piece, we discussed Wallstedt's outstanding SHL season, which no 18-year-old goaltender has ever accomplished before. He was the starter of Luleå's men's team almost all of last season; at the same age, Henrik Lundqvist was playing junior hockey in Sweden.
On top of just being good at stopping pucks, Wallstedt's technique, athleticism and poise are near-unmatched among this year's available netminders, and he could very well be the only franchise-ceiling prospect in this draft. San Jose desperately needs good goaltending, and Wallstedt brings exactly that.
Floor: SHL/AHL starting goaltender
Ceiling: Franchise puck-stopper, 60+ games
8. Los Angeles Kings – Mason McTavish, C/W – EHC Olten, SL
The fastest-rising first-rounder of this year's draft, McTavish has climbed as far as the second rank among North American skaters on the NHL Central Scouting Bureau's list, after a very good World Juniors performance (11 points in 7 games). His blend of size (6-1, 207 pounds), strength and skill combine for a profile that is highly sought-after by teams seeking some bulk down the middle.
Hard to play against and difficult to stop, McTavish's outstanding shooting ability spearheads his offensive profile and makes him a threat from anywhere in the opponent's zone. He can make plays in-tight and is especially good at initiating contact and creating separation between himself and his opponents. He is sound defensively but shows shaky decision-making at times, which he compensates for by working hard off the puck. A sound option for an LA team looking to provide scoring options for Alex Turcotte and Quinton Byfield.
Floor: AHL top scorer
Ceiling: Top-six goal-scoring center/winger, half-wall power-play specialist
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 37th
9. Vancouver Canucks – Dylan Guenther, LW, Edmonton, WHL
Despite Guenther's 2020-21 WHL season being cut short by COVID-19 complications, Guenther showed extremely impressive performances and point production in 12 games, scoring 24 points (12 goals, 12 assists). He led the entire WHL in points per game (2.00), outpacing high-end prospects drafted in previous years such as Peyton Krebs, Jake Neighbours and Connor Zary. His shot is heavy and unpredictable, and he puts himself in high-danger locations on the ice in order to maximize his scoring potential.
Vancouver's need for scoring wingers to surround Elias Pettersson and Bo Horvat has never been clearer than in 2020-21, as the team couldn't keep its head above water offensively and missed the playoffs by a wide margin. Expect Guenther to reach the NHL after two to three years of WHL action to fine-tune his defensive game and his physical involvement, which are currently sub-par.
Floor: AHL first-line winger
Ceiling: First line goal-scorer, power-play option
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 15th
10. Ottawa Senators – Kent Johnson, C, U. of Michigan, NCAA
Possibly the most dazzling offensive forward of the 2021 NHL Draft, Johnson's bag of tricks might very well be endless, as he'll occasionally pull off a move or a pass that will surprise everyone from his opponents, to his teammates, to his coaches. The 6'1, 165-pound center has choppy strides that are often synonymous with sub-par leg muscle development as well as technique deficiencies, but the way he manipulates opponents and uses his teammates, at least at the NCAA level, makes his skating less of an issue in the top half of the ice. In his own half, however, his skating issues are exacerbated by a lack of involvement and a whole lot of puck-watching.
If the Sens give Johnson a shot, it will not be to form a two-way forward; instead, they will be betting on his upside and taking their time to develop his game to its fullest extent. They can certainly afford to be patient, as the team is not gearing for a Stanley Cup run any time soon.
Floor: AHL star
Ceiling: First-line highlight-reel generator
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 20th
11. Arizona Coyotes *Forfeited due to scouting combine violations*
12. Chicago Blackhawks – Matthew Coronato, C/LW, Chicago, USHL
Coronato's selection at this rank comes after the Chicago Steel forward led all draft-year USHL players in points per game, albeit on the best team in that league with strong teammate support. There is a lot to love about his game, however: the undersized forward (5-10, 183 pounds) plays a gnarly, in-your-face game and boasts an above-average release, exacerbated by his will to gain the middle and the slot for his shooting chances. He shows decent small- and large-ice manipulation, playing pucks across seams he creates for himself and dragging opponents towards him to free up space behind them.
Chicago might very well take a shot at Coronato at 12th overall; he is right in their backyard, and fits the profile they need in terms of goal-scoring and grit. He is not the 12th best prospect in this draft, however — his skating and execution speed will need to improve quite a bit if he wishes to keep up with the NHL's pace — but the Hawks have some of the NHL's best skating staff available to them and will be quick to get to work on Coronato's lackings. The upside is worth the risk for Chicago at 12th overall.
Floor: middle-six AHL winger
Ceiling: Top-six goal-scoring forward, both special team units
13. Calgary Flames – Cole Sillinger, C/LW Sioux Falls, USHL
The Flames' selection of Sillinger at 13th overall stems from early viewings of his WHL days in Medicine Hat, Alberta, where he played his 2019-20 season and performed admirably for a player his age. He then joined the Sioux Falls Stampede after COVID-19 made the WHL's season uncertain, and he ended the season with 46 points (24 goals, 22 assists), and a USHL Rookie Of The Year award.
A goal-scorer by trade, Sillinger has confidence in barrels and does not hesitate to shoot from everywhere. This leads to him looking off sound passing options and trying to take too much into his own hands on more than one occasion. His skating is heel-heavy and he drags his feet often in his own zone, which does not bode well for a first-round prospect, but the level of skill and creativity that Sillinger shows makes his upside worth a top-15 pick. The Flames will be betting on the type of player he could become if he does make it, as the forward could very well score 30 goals at the NHL level with the right surroundings.
Floor: AHL goal-scorer
Ceiling: First-line goal-scorer, power-play specialist
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 49th
14. Philadelphia Flyers – Chaz Lucius, C/RW, USNTDP, USHL
Another USHL goal-scoring center, Lucius' profile is a bit more well-rounded than Sillinger's, although his ceiling as a player might be slightly lower. Lucius' goal-scoring ability has been lauded by many as the best of this class, as the center shows variation, deceptiveness and a lightning-quick release when throwing pucks at the net. His forechecking and pressuring in all three zones are what make him a much more reliable player without the puck than Sillinger.
As Lucius joins the Flyers' pipeline, they will likely work with him on his explosiveness in his first three strides using power-skating and edgework drills, as he lacks the acceleration required to blow past defenders on the rush. He relies on a strong base of stickhandling at the moment to get past defenders, but his moves will likely not always work against NHL defensemen.
Floor: bottom-line forechecking forward
Ceiling: Top-six goal-scorer, power-play specialist
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 41st
15. Dallas Stars – Aatu Räty, C, Kärpät U20, SM-Sarja
Once projected to be the first-overall pick of this draft, Räty's fall from glory has come after an underwhelming season in the Finnish top flight, putting up a meager six points in 35 professional games. His talent is undeniable; he stickhandles through players with ease, has a plus-shot that can trouble goaltenders from mid-to-close range, and has vision and distribution abilities that allow him to find teammates at any speed. His defensive and decision-making issues were exacerbated by playing against men this season, and he will need to refine his choices with and without the puck to bring his potential up.
The Stars are betting on upside with Räty, hoping that he can find his game and thrive on smaller ice surfaces on North American soil. A definite risk, but one that the Stars can afford to make at 15th overall.
Floor: Liiga top-six forward
Ceiling: Top-six offensive catalyst
16. New York Rangers – Fabian Lysell, RW, Luleå HF, SHL
You want speed? He's got it. Lysell's game is as high-paced as it gets, as the winger is often seen zooming around the large ice surfaces of the SHL with very little to slow him down. His near-perfect skating, paired with his slight frame (5-10, 172 pounds) allows him to blow past neutral zone formations in transition and apply pressure with quick turns and strong first steps on the forecheck. He gets out-muscled often as a byproduct of his size, but compensates with strong stick utilization. His positioning falters as he doesn't seem to know when to slow down, and can skate himself out of place at times.
Scoring consistency will be key as well, as the forward only managed three points in 26 SHL games. Hopefully his tendency to benefit from existing space rather than creating it will wear out as he matures. Lysell should absolutely have been a top-10 pick, but knowing teams' reticence to draft shorter players high up in the draft order, it would make sense for him to drop into the second half of the first round. The Rangers are building a powerhouse very quickly, and will hope that Lysell's game will translate to higher levels sooner than his peers.
Floor: SHL middle-six winger
Ceiling: First-line energy winger, both special team units
DP Fantasy Prospects Report Top-50 prospects ranking: 27th
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Follow me on Twitter @HadiK_Scouting for more prospect-related content, and stay tuned for next week's piece as we simulate picks 17-32 of the first round!